Entering the season, the Marlins were undergoing a well-publicized return to youth, and the expectation was that most of the kids would be overmatched. So far, much of that youth is proving that it belongs in the major leagues. May saw pitcher Josh Johnson win the National League Rookie of the Month award, beating out teammate Dan Uggla.

 

The fact that Florida had two contenders for that title shouldn't be surprising, considering that Florida had 18 active players eligible for the honor. The average age for their roster is just 25.9 (the same figure for both their pitchers and hitters, actually).

 

The young pitchers haven't had enough innings yet to constitute anything meaningful (Taylor Tankersley's three innings sure have been...great), so let's save them for a later date. We have plenty to discuss about the young offense now that we're about a third of the way through the year, though. Here are some highlights and lowlights on the offensive side from the everyday newbies:

 

(Each player's name is followed by his age in parentheses, then his AVG/OBP/SLG, WARP1, and EQA. All stats current as of 6/7/06.)

 

1B Mike Jacobs (25), .236/.337/.420, .7, .267

 

OK, so maybe PECOTA was a little irrationally exuberant about last year's .730 SLG with the Mets. His rather average-looking offensive line this year is heavily weighted by an abysmal April, when he hit just .179/.293/.346 out of the gate. He's been far better since, hitting .280/.368/.470 post-April. Wes Helms took both first base starts last week against Noah Lowry and the Giants, a trend which has held up so far this year--Jacobs has just 44 ABs against lefties, with not-so-good results. As a righty-masher, though, he's been terrific.

 

2B Dan Uggla (26), .303/.354/.459, 3.1, .283

 

Though his above-average OBP is batting-average driven, the Rule 5 pick has been the second-best second baseman in the league, behind Chase Utley. Chances are pretty good that if you saw this coming, you also own a Dan Uggla replica jersey. He's not young, and he's probably not a .300 hitter, but he's making the most of his opportunity. To keep an eye on for the rest of the year: how he handles the power-suppressing nature of his home park. As of now, he has more road ABs, though he's still hitting over .300 at home. He doesn't have a great batting eye, so watch for opposing pitchers to exploit his need for contact.

 

SS Hanley Ramirez (22), .304/.371/.469, 2.3, .295

 

Ramirez' VORP of 20.5 trails only Justin Verlander's 23.5 for tops in the majors among rookies. The major knock on Ramirez coming into this year was that, for a highly-touted prospect, his 2005 Double-A debut was rather unspectacular. You couldn't tell that just by looking at his current line, though, as he's been just about a perfect leadoff hitter this year. He's not as dependent on contact as Uggla is, he's been one of the more efficient basestealers in the majors (17 successes against 4 caught), and he's in the top ten in all of baseball in terms of pitches seen per plate appearance (4.12).

 

This keystone combo has been one of the better stories in baseball so far, and the two players have been bright spots for Marlin fans who've already dealt with more than their fair share of turbulence over the last nine months. Here's to hoping this excitement has some longevity.

 

LF Josh Willingham (27), .267/.353/.461, 1.2, .284

 

His season's turning out about as well as expected. He's terrible with the glove, hasn't seen a whole lot of time behind the plate (despite manager Joe Girardi's spring training proclamations), and has been a pretty good bat for the middle of the lineup, all of which was expected with him as he was pretty low-risk. This is probably as good as it gets with Willingham, as he's not the type of player to age well, and the traditional downslope of a career is just around the corner.

 

RF Jeremy Hermida (22), .289/.394/.546, .4, .303

 

Hermida was a popular Rookie of the Year candidate coming into the year, but a hip flexor injury and a trip to the DL handicapped those early hopes, leaving him with a lot of ground to make up. His line, while solid, is still coming in only 60 ABs or so, so gleaning anything from it is pretty foolish. He's outperforming his PECOTA weighted-mean projection in all three rate categories, but early signs are promising that he's not like his #1 PECOTA comp (Jack Cust).

 

OF Reggie Abercrombie (25), .231/.287/.363, 0, .226

 

It's really hard to believe he's still just 25 considering he's been kicking around the minors for what seems like forever. For a team that needed to remake almost an entire roster in one offseason, he wasn't a terrible gamble, but he stands to lose time to both Joe Borchard and Cody Ross now that he's confirmed that neither his hitting nor fielding are up to code. He's almost the anti-ROY candidate: among rookies with significant playing time, his -3 VORP ranks ahead of only Chicago's Brian Anderson (-8.8 VORP) and Baltimore's Nick Markakis (-6.2). If Abercrombie were a Belgian-style witbier, he'd be the Saranac Belgian White: looks good, inexpensive, comes with an iffy track record so you suspect it won't be that great, and yet it still manages to disappoint you.

 

--John Erhardt

 

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5175

So Uggla is a little old, I'll still take him.

Good write-up I think this team has a nucleus to build around. I will be exciting over the next few years. If they could only get a stadium

They were slightly harsh on Willingham.

They were slightly harsh on Willingham.

 

 

i hope its not true :thumbdown

They were slightly harsh on Willingham.

 

 

i hope its not true :thumbdown

They will be wrong.

What part? Him starting to decline right around the corner?

What part? Him starting to decline right around the corner?

 

 

yeah, that "This is probably as good as it gets with Willingham, as he's not the type of player to age well, and the traditional downslope of a career is just around the corner." :thumbdown

Meh, those things are never certain. Bay burst onto the scene at around the same age, and he's doing fine.

 

Altho I doubt his real future is in LF tho.

Meh, those things are never certain. Bay burst onto the scene at around the same age, and he's doing fine.

 

Altho I doubt his real future is in LF tho.

 

 

you thinking 1B?

Meh, those things are never certain. Bay burst onto the scene at around the same age, and he's doing fine.

 

Altho I doubt his real future is in LF tho.

 

 

you thinking 1B?

for future's sake, a platoon of them isnt the worst idea i have ever heard of... :whistle

Yep, I was figuring 1B.

Uggla is only 26, and wasn't Uggla's strength coming just hitting and his defense was supposedly the weak part of his game? I'm starting to hate most writers who've probably never picked up a baseball in their life and go by stats and sabermetrics.

That was way out of left field buddy.

 

Uggla is looking life a Jeff Kent type. Above average offense+average to above average on good days defense.

 

Who gives a flying rats ass what some pencil pusher says...when you know in your heart what is actually true.

Who gives a flying rats ass what some pencil pusher says...when you know in your heart what is actually true.

 

 

LOL.

 

C'mon. These guys are going off of a PROVEN model. But you know it in your heart to be true? Everybody tends to over-rate their own guys. I'd at least take heed of what these guys say. They have been wrong in the past and will be wrong again in the future but I'll take what they say 100% of the time over the flutterings in your heartstrings.

I was just trying to stay upbeat. I dont honestly know if any of our guys will perform at great levels.

 

You just have to believe they will or you'll go insane.