Ahh yes, as you all can tell I only come back here for football season. I figure that my past track record has burnt my credibility on much else.

 

All the experts pick the same teams year after year. And every year except for the years of the Pats dynasty, they were never right. Like who could have seen St. Louis, Baltimore, New England (at the beginning of the dynasty), Tampa Bay, or Pittsburgh winning the Super Bowl? Nobody. We all knew that Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh were good teams, but nobody was picking them to win the Super Bowl the past few years. And this year its all Colts, Steelers, Patriots, Redskins, Panthers, and Seahawks. So when everyone jumps off the bandwagon, I've now learned to jump off the bandwagon. I see a team like the Bengals and I see a great offense with zero weaknesses except for TE where they are only above average. The defense though I see improvements in the front 7, but losing Odell Thurman for 4 games will suck. But I loved the pick of Jonathan Joseph in the draft. I thought Joseph was the best CB in this years draft and I think he will prove it. And I love Cinci's young LB's. All are young, fast, and physical. Despite character issues with Thurman and Brooks, I think that it won't hinder the Bengals run. As we've seen with Dallas, character problems may hurt a team, but it certainly doesn't stop you from winning Super Bowls. Cincinnati is a good, young team that people all pick to be very good. But few pick to make or win the Super Bowl. And its good young teams that are physical and lead by great coaches that win. The Bengals defense is far from "there", but they're getting "there" with young talent like Thurman, Brooks, Jospeh, O'Neal, etc, etc. Lewis is a great hardnosed coach. And when I saw who I had in the playoffs it just became clear to me that Cincinnati was my pick this year.

 

Also in this post I will address my reasoning behind a few teams predicitions, those teams being...

 

The Colts, Chargers, Giants, Eagles, Falcons, and Seahawks.

 

First the Colts, I'm surprised nobody called me on the 10-6. It is unusually low. But this year I really wanted to study my picks and do a more thorough job, considering that every expert is picking either the Colts, Steelers, Broncos, Seahawks, Cowboys, Redskins, or Panthers. Normally the Colts, Steelers, and Panthers are bandwagons that I jump on. But anyway, the Colts...

 

The Colts lost Edgerrin James, and though I think Joseph Addai will be good, he isn't going to replace Edgerrin James, nor will Dominic Rhodes when combined with Addai. Second the loss of some very key defenders like David Thornton to the Titans will hurt what was a very strong unit. This year I expect the Colts to be a solid ball club, but losses through the natural progression of free agency are inevitable when a team is invested in 1 player.

 

Next are the Chargers. Reason being I'm so high on the Chargers are because of a few things. The Chargers are one of a select group of teams that plays the brand of football I think every team should play (the others being Carolina, Pittsburgh, and yes the Bears). Run the ball offensively and play smash mouth defense (3-4 or 4-3 doesn't matter, all of those teams are physical, though I do prefer the 4-3 by far). The Chargers with LT and that potent O-Line will be money as always. But despite LT, Gates, and company, their whole season hinges on Rivers. 3 years ago I believed Rivers to be the best QB in the draft with Eli and Big Ben. Well Eli and Ben have proven to be excellent, so I doubt if Rivers proves to be the best of his class. But I still expect him to do very well. And lets not forget that a young QB's best friend is a good Tight End. Evidence to this is Mark Chmura and Keith Jackson in Green Bay 10-12 years ago. Those 2 bailed Brett Favre out time and time again. Gates is the best TE in the game and he will bail out Rivers time and time again as Rivers learns. In the end, I think they'll be madly successful because of the 3 old factors I mentioned (LT, Gates, and Defense) and 1 new one (Rivers).

 

The Giants are a team that I was really surprised I had doing as well as I did when I saw how they were seeded in the playoffs. I don't think they are the best team in the NFC that distinction belongs to Carolina. But as we have learned in the past the best teams don't always make the Super Bowl. The Giants aside from being loaded on offense (Eli, Tiki, Jacobs, Shockey, Toomer, Plaxico, and Moss), they have vastly improved their front 7 with the additions of Lavar Arrington through free agency and Mathias Kiwanuka in the draft. Those 2 additions, combined with Will Demps, Sam Madison, Gibril Wilson, and Corey Webster in the secondary and the linebackers of Arrington, Pierce, and Emmons means one badass defense. The Giants are underrated, but in my estimation the 2nd best team in the NFC and will make the Super Bowl because of the benefit of a less grueling test before meeting Carolina in my hypothetical playoffs.

 

The Eagles are a team in which losing TO and doing little to IMMDEDIATELY catapult the team into serious contention in a tough division will take its toll. Though I loved the Eagles draft of mainly lineman (finally a team that realizes the games are won and lost in the trenches!) will pay off in big ways (maybe Super Bowls...) in 2-3 years, right now those rookies need to develop. And I don't care, I think McNabb is overrated, not in the Rush Limbaugh sense of the belief, but rather that ESPN makes McNabb, TO, and Vick out to be gods when really McNabb and TO are great football players and Vick just sucks (we'll get to that one in a minute). McNabb being a very good player I don't think can carry a team year in and year out as he has done in the past. Only Elway and Favre have really carried teams throughout their careers. With their RB's always injured and a puzzling outlook at LB I see another season mired in mediocrity for the Eagles.

 

Now to the Falcons. To be honest I was stunned when I was going down Atlanta's schedule and only had them winning 4 games. Especially since they acquired Abraham and Milloy. Aside from having the most overrated player in the NFL in the last 10 years (finally people are seeing what I see!), the Falcons offense does little to blow my skirt up. An average offensive line by any estimate. An aging back in Warrick Dunn, a slow back in TJ Duckett, and I don't have complete faith in Roddy White and Michael Jenkins to be gamebreakers JUST YET. Jenkins may be ready this year, but give White 1 more year to develop. Defensively an aging defensive line will be seriously bolstered with Abraham. And the linebackers are very solid. But Chris Cocker needs to show me something more at safety for me to be comfy with him starting. Jason Webster is nothing more than an average nickel CB. And DeAngelo Hall may get a lot of INT's and may be fast, but good coverage, ball skills, and a physical brand of play are what makes a great CB and Hall has yet to display those on a consistent basis. Milloy will be a great addition, but he is old and aging and isnt't what he used to be. This team when I look at the roster screams 8 or 9 wins but their schedule is unusually tough for a team that took 3rd in their division last year. I challenge you all to go and run down their schedule and see what you come up with. I don't expect it to be 4-12, but I'd also be surprised if you came out with 11-5 or 10-6.

 

The Seahawks. Setting aside the curse of the Super Bowl Loser not making the playoffs. I'm just not a fan of a team thats big offseason move is letting the best guard in the NFL go and then signing an overrated WR (Nate Burleson) from the Vikings as revenge as their crowning offseason move. Letting go of Steve Hutchinson will be a disaster. I'm a Packers fan I should know. When my beloved Pack let Rivera and Wahle go, I was the one and you guys can check my calls from last year who predicted 4-12 to 6-10 for the Packers while most other people were expecting the Packers to be 10-6 duking it out for the division. Losing great offensive lineman in my opinion is as bad as losing a great skill position player. Furthermore, going back to the WR situation, Darrell Jackson is the only competent WR they have. Bobby Engram is old, Nate Burleson was a one year wonder for the Vikings and was dirt last year that paired with losing a great o-lineman spells trouble for Hasselbeck and the boys. Defensively Julian Peterson is a great addition. And keeping Darby was a solid move in free agency. But the 2 Kelly's, Herndon and Jennings, aren't great CB's by any stretch and can easily be picked on. Herndon is 29 soon to be 30, thats getting up there in CB years and Jennings is so green in the face he could lay down on the field and you'd think he went missing being a rookie who left college early. Though Jennings I think will be good in the long run, nothing immediate. Ken Hamlin is a great safety, but coming back from such a brutal injury will be a question, I think he can do it. But until I see otherwise the secondary is in my view vulnerable. Couple those 2 problems with the loss of the very smart and physical Marquand Manuel in free agency, if Hamlin can't come back they have no real solution at safety except to maybe moving Herndon or Jennings back. Boulware and Trufant are great. But there are questions to me at the other 2 spots. So to sum it up WR, O-Line and Safety I see as serious questions for the Seahawks.

KC Joyner, ESPN's "football scientist," pretty much says the same thing about the Bengals in the book he puts out every year. I hope he, along with Phlub, are right.

 

I fully expect Odell Thurman to not play a snap this entire season, as well. They moved Brian Simmons in to take his play and I have to think his experience, along with big Sam Adams inside, is going to be great for opening up some holes for him to run through.

I was kind of hoping you'd pick the bears to win 2 games again this year phlub.. seeemed to help last season

I was kind of hoping you'd pick the bears to win 2 games again this year phlub.. seeemed to help last season

 

 

...because predictions are law and causally affect a team's play? :plain

I was kind of hoping you'd pick the bears to win 2 games again this year phlub.. seeemed to help last season

 

 

...because predictions are law and causally affect a team's play? :plain

 

he was joking. :plain

I was kind of hoping you'd pick the bears to win 2 games again this year phlub.. seeemed to help last season

 

 

...because predictions are law and causally affect a team's play? :plain

 

he was joking. :plain

 

Hmmmm... Or was he?

 

He was hoping Phlub would pick the Bears to win less so they would win more. What does that suggest?

I was being absolutely serious and poking no fun at phlub, a packers fan, whatsoever. I also hate blind people.

at least you addressed the drop with the hawks ... but seriously

 

hutch is a big loss, but playing between an all pro C and all pro LT (best in the game) will help anyone - the biggest question there is if Pork Chop Womack can stay healthy - the guy is very talented and kind of a beast

 

the DL rotation got better and the LB postion got better by adding by adding daryll tapp, russell davis and julian peterson (and this is a team that was very tough to run on last year and was near the top of the L in sacks)

 

the secondary is a little vulnerable, but upgraded over the year prior - the return of hamlin is nice and they traded for a S from chicago to offset the loss of marquand (nice to see you so high on him )

 

WR is the same as it always is - nothing flashy, but very productive - engram is still one of the best slot receivers in the league - burleson is a perfect fit for the WCO - peter warrick is healthy again - the main question is the health of jackson (but lets not forget he missed 10 games last year and engram missed some as well)

 

also they have stevens and mili is returning as the TE combo, which isn't shabby

 

shaun is in his prime and they have good depth at OL, RB, FB, DL, LB

 

they are thin at the secondary, QB and WR spot to a degree

 

to have them behind AZ and use the concerns that you did is kind of peculiar - the cards have a very shaky secondary and a very questionable LB corps - they have a shaky OL and a QB that is baked by inexperience who hasn't made it through a full season in half a decade - their WRs are stellar, TEs subpar, RB is good (not as good as shaun though) - having a 2 game spread between the 2 is a bit much as well

At first I was surprised to see the Seahawks missing the playoffs and the Bengals winning it all? After reading your analysis, I have to say that this is a very well constructed and thought out post. I can even buy in to the Seahawks missing the playoffs despite finally adding an additional threat at the WR position. I?m not sold on the Bengals yet, however. They remind me of the Vikings of the late 90?s and early 2000?s with Culpepper and Smith and Carter and [eventually] Moss ? plenty of O but not enough D. We?ll see.

 

Anyway, I was also surprised to see the Giants getting some love. Eli will have to magically transform himself into Peyton this year to win the MVP, so I?m just hoping to see his INT?s go down and completion % go up.

 

I am ready for some football!

Guys I must say as a Packers fan, watching Nate Burleson last year was not impressive. Burleson is overrated and the Seahawks vastly overpaid for him. Nate Burleson adds very little to their WR corps that they would have had if they hadn't signed him.

 

Nothing ever plays out to the experts expectations, and this year my predictions reflect that. They dont look like something ESPN would put out there at all. They dont suck up to Vick or TO and they dont hate on teams not from the East Coast.

 

As for the Bengals, on offense they have it all. It was their defense that actually sold me on the merits of my picking them. They add Sam Adams and Frostee Rucker, 2 very talented players to what was a shaky defenisve line, but is now an above average-good defensive line. Their linebackers are dynamite. With David Pollack, Odell Thurman, Brian Simmons, Ahmad Brooks, and Landon Johnson few teams have explosiveness, aggressiveness and energy the Bengals pack on that line. And in the secondary they added the best CB in the draft with Jonathan Joseph, to team up with O'Neal and James, though James isn't a shutdown CB, Joseph will be. Dexter Jackson was added at FS, a very talented player, but a journeyman who I believe will find a home in Cinci for himself. He joins Madieu Williams who is an EXTREMELY talented young safety. With what I consider to be an excellent young stable of Linebackers and a very good Defensive backfield, and an above average to solid defensive line. I think the talent is there and that the Bengals are one of those teams that they are so dominant on one side of the ball (offense) that all they need to be is average on the other side of the ball to win games. And lets not forget that Marvin Lewis is one of the great defensive minds of our time and he will almost certainly be a HUGE benefit to these young kids learning his system. And for those who know me, I hate Chad Johnson, and I am a big guy on players not being flashy and acting with some class. The Bengals in that category fail miserably, so it really pains me to predict that idiots like Chad Johnson, O'Dell Thurman, and Ahmad Brooks along with some of the other notorious lawbreakers on the team will win the Super Bowl. But as I've said already, bad character didn't hurt the 90's Cowboys, otherwise they wouldn't have won 3 Super Bowls.

 

And Iowa, I wasn't thrilled putting the Bears up top.

 

But the Vikings will win more than 7 games. And the Packers will PROBABLY win more than 5. Look at who the Vikings and Packers have brought in. Both of those 2 teams are hardly recognizable from the teams that miserably exited the field last year. The Vikings and Packers both feature over 11 new starters and both have completely new coaching staffs except for 2-3 position coaches that the Packers kept. Especially the Packers defense will be the reason the Packers win 6-8 games this year. Nick Barnett is already one of the premier young LB's in all of football, along with holdovers Aaron Kampman, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Al Harris, and Nick Collins (one of the best young safeties in all of football) the Packers had most of the core players they would need for a great defense. But then you add AJ Hawk, Charles Woodson, Marquand Manuel, Abdul Hodge, and Ben Taylor to compliment the probable rising young players like Mike Montgomery and Cullen Jenkins, it gives the Packers a great young defense. And Offensively we'll see how Green Bay does. Running Back and O-Line are both huge questions. Our rookie guards Darryn Colledge and Jason Spitz will both probably be very good in the long run but I have my doubts about their rookie seasons being as productive as they need to be. Likewise with rookie wideout Greg Jennings. The packers will win 6-7 games because of their defense.

 

The Vikings as well with their new additions, most notably Steve Hutchinson. I'll detail them later, for now I have to go to bed.

 

Oh and as far as my picking Eli to win the MVP goes, the MVP is handed out before the Super Bowl so the Super Bowl champion has zero influence over who wins it. Every year either a QB or RB wins the MVP. So with that in mind, it has to come from a team who is in serious contention in the playoffs. That leaves me...

 

Carson Palmer, Rudi Johnson, Philip Rivers, LaDanian Tomlinson, Jake Delhomme, DeAngelo Williams, Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James, Tom Brady, Lawrence Maroney, Rex Grossman, Cedric Benson/Thomas Jones, Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Eli Manning, Tiki Barber, Daunte Culpepper, and Ronnie Brown.

 

And the only names that strike me as MVP material at this time on that list are Palmer, Tomlinson, Delhomme, Brady, Peyton, Eli, and Tiki. And from there Peyton, Palmer, Delhomme, Brady, and Tiki all seem to conventional of choices. Eli and Tomlinson are left. And from there its basically the QB gets it by default. I'm not really an Eli Manning fan by any means, but he's very good, not great, but I think the other main reason I chose Eli is that his supporting cast of Tiki Barber, Brandon Jacobs, Amani Toomer, Plaxico Burress, Sinorice Moss, Tim Carter, David Tyree, Jeremy Shockey, and a great offensive line will seriously help bolster Eli's numbers.

 

Okay now I have to go to bed.

Chad Johnson isn't a lawbreaker. And some of those guys haven't been convicted yet (this is America, right? I thought it was innocent until PROVEN guilty).

 

But, otherwise I agree. KC Joyner compared us to the '84 Bears. heh.

Chad Johnson isn't a lawbreaker. And some of those guys haven't been convicted yet (this is America, right? I thought it was innocent until PROVEN guilty).

 

But, otherwise I agree. KC Joyner compared us to the '84 Bears. heh.

 

 

Nah, guilty until proven innocent.

Chad Johnson isn't a lawbreaker. And some of those guys haven't been convicted yet (this is America, right? I thought it was innocent until PROVEN guilty).

 

But, otherwise I agree. KC Joyner compared us to the '84 Bears. heh.

 

 

Nah, guilty until proven innocent.

 

It sometimes feels that way, doesn't it?

Chiefs are winning the division! An injured one foot Ty Law last year had 10 INT, a healthy two foot Ty Law matched with Surtain is going to be the best duo in the division!