In 2004, Adam Dunn set the major league record for strikeouts by a batter in a single season with 195 (he is also second with 194 which he had last season).

 

Ryan Howard has played in 104 of 124 games this year.

 

He has a total of 149 strikeouts in those 106 games or roughly 1.4 strikeout's a game.

 

Assuming he plays in their remaining 38 and maintains his current strikeout rate he would eclipse Dunn with the first 200 strikeout season in the history of the game with 202.

 

To put this in perspective, In Dunn's 195 and 194 strikeout seaons he had a K rate of 1.2 for 161 total games in 2004 and in 160 games in 2006. Howard is on pace to break the record by 7 playing in 17 less games!

 

I'm well aware that there is no data to suggest the strikeout is more harmful then say a ground out, but that K rate along with his numbers across the board being way down (although his production stats (RBI, HR) are good) is a bit of a call for concern. Hopefully someone watches a lot of video tape of his this winter and something is tweaked or changed to help him.

 

Pretty basic math being utilized here but I thought this may interest some people who didn't realize the ammount of K's this man is piling up.

Ay Dios mio! That's insane! I'm surprised no one in the media has picked up on this.

 

I think it was Kirkijian who said there are more 100 K players a year now then there were for the first 50 years combined.

 

I hate strikeouts.

If you start adding Tony Gwynn's season strikeout totals in a season where he had 300+ ABs, it would take 11 of his lowest seasons to eclipse what Howard could potentially do.'

 

That is absurd.

Ay Dios mio! That's insane! I'm surprised no one in the media has picked up on this.

 

I think it was Kirkijian who said there are more 100 K players a year now then there were for the first 50 years combined.

 

I hate strikeouts.

me too...such a wasteful out...but hey...if i played in a ball park the size of a large sand box...id swing for the fences every time too

WOW

Howard's not going post an OPS above 1.000 ever again.

P-Dub gave it a run back in '00, his 30/30 year.

 

Finished with 187.

I'm well aware that there is no data to suggest the strikeout is more harmful then say a ground out...

This is one thing that has ALWAYS bothered me. I think I'm going to have to start compiling that data because you can't advance a runner on a K. How do you measure the value of advancing a runner from 1st to 2nd or 2nd to 3rd while producing an out? I suppose an out is an out - but an out isn't JUST an out if it is a PRODUCTIVE out [see sacrifice fly, sacrifice bunt, 14 pitch AB, etc] and you can't have a PRODUCTIVE out if you are getting yourself out.

 

One other thought - it's always nice to keep a defense on their toes. Any time you put a ball in play, you have an opportunity to create an error. You can't create an error if you are swinging and missing.

I agree with that, in the short term it does, however in the long run that out is just as invaluable as any other single out.

Meh. He got off to a terrible start, missed a couple weeks, and is still going to put up 40 homers plus, 110 RBI plus, and a .950 OPS. Plus, he has no speed so he's not missing out on much when he "doesn't put the ball in play", and his average to on base split is a stellar 125 points to go with that gaudy .560 slugging. The strikeout isn't ALWAYS overrated and irrelevant like some say, but for guys like Howard and Dunn it certainly is. HOWEVER I will say that is an incredible stat, 200 strikeouts plus could be in his future.

I'm well aware that there is no data to suggest the strikeout is more harmful then say a ground out...

This is one thing that has ALWAYS bothered me. I think I'm going to have to start compiling that data because you can't advance a runner on a K. How do you measure the value of advancing a runner from 1st to 2nd or 2nd to 3rd while producing an out? I suppose an out is an out - but an out isn't JUST an out if it is a PRODUCTIVE out [see sacrifice fly, sacrifice bunt, 14 pitch AB, etc] and you can't have a PRODUCTIVE out if you are getting yourself out.

You can get a very good idea of how valuable those plays are by consulting a runs expectation chart. A batter comes to the plate in a certain game situation (Runner at 1st, 1 out) and, after his at-bat, the team is in a new game situation (for example, Runner at 2nd, 2 outs or Runner at 1st, 2 outs). If you want to see how much making that out cost the team, simply take the difference between the expected value of the initial situation and the expected value of the new situation.

 

On average, a team scores 0.544 runs with a Runner on 1st, 1 out. If the batter gets an out (strikeout, pop up, w/e) that doesn't advance the runner, the team's expected runs that inning goes down to about 0.239 runs. (Runner on 1st, 2 outs). Now, suppose the batter lays down a bunt or hits a slow roller to 3rd and the runner on 1st advances to 2nd. The team's expected runs for that inning only drops down to 0.347. Therefore, a "productive out" is worth about 0.108 runs more than a strikeout.

 

However, consider the alternative: a double play. Initial state (Runner on 1st, 1 out) = 0.544 runs. If the batter strikes out, expected runs drops to 0.239 runs. If the batter hits into a double play, which would end the inning, the team's expected runs goes from 0.544 to 0.

 

If you keep following this line of thinking, the "puts the ball in play" hitter would have to get a "productive out" a little more than twice as many times as he hits into a double play in order for his performance to be more valuable than a hitter whose outs are always strike outs.

 

(Note: I say "about" when referring to expected runs because these figures were calculated using data from the AL in 2001; those numbers are a little different for today's NL)

 

This article probably describes it better than I could: http://www.harvardmagazine.com/on-line/050221.html

Here's a run expectancy chart for '07, CC:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statisti....php?cid=204022

 

:thumbup

This article probably describes it better than I could: http://www.harvardmagazine.com/on-line/050221.html

You make a good point with the double play situation [i never started thinking in that direction]. However, after reading through this theory, I can see a lot of major holes. For example, the numbers in certain situations are based on averages. So, he mentions that it almost never makes sense to sacrifice bunt with no outs. However, his numbers are skewed by all of the sacrifice bunts that DID work. It's hard for me to articulate my logic but I'll take a better stab at it after I've had some time to look through the link posted by Fox.

 

Thanks for giving me something to eat up a boring day! :thumbup

Here's a run expectancy chart for '07, CC:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statisti....php?cid=204022

 

:thumbup

 

Thanks Fox. I've gotta put that BP membership to better use.

Mini-Update:

 

Howard only had 2 strikeouts in his next 4 games to lower his K rate to 1.372 repeating.

 

With 34 games remaining and using his new average K rate, He would have about 46.67 or ~47 more strikeouts to end the season. Giving him a total of 198. He'd break Dunn's record but he is now under the 200 K plateau since this thread was started.

 

C'mon Ryan, get a swinging again, we're all rooting for that 200+ SO season!

Howard sets single-season whiff mark

Phillies slugger strikes out for 196th time this season

 

PHILADELPHIA -- One at-bat after launching his 44th homer of the season on Thursday night against the Braves, Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard struck out.

It was notable because the lefty slugger whiffed for the 196th time this season, setting a Major League record. Cincinnati's Adam Dunn set the previous mark of 195 in 2004.

 

Howard went down swinging in the second inning on a nasty 87-mph splitter by 40-year-old veteran righty John Smoltz.

 

Howard, the reigning National League Most Valuable Player, has struck out 36 times in September.

 

"I don't even think about [strikeouts]," Howard said on Wednesday. "We're winning ballgames, and that's all that matters."

http://florida.marlins.mlb.com/news/articl...sp&c_id=mlb

 

Will he reach the 200 mark?

"I don't even think about [strikeouts]," Howard said on Wednesday.

Obviously. :lol

Howard sets single-season whiff mark

Phillies slugger strikes out for 196th time this season

 

PHILADELPHIA -- One at-bat after launching his 44th homer of the season on Thursday night against the Braves, Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard struck out.

It was notable because the lefty slugger whiffed for the 196th time this season, setting a Major League record. Cincinnati's Adam Dunn set the previous mark of 195 in 2004.

 

Howard went down swinging in the second inning on a nasty 87-mph splitter by 40-year-old veteran righty John Smoltz.

 

Howard, the reigning National League Most Valuable Player, has struck out 36 times in September.

 

"I don't even think about [strikeouts]," Howard said on Wednesday. "We're winning ballgames, and that's all that matters."

http://florida.marlins.mlb.com/news/articl...sp&c_id=mlb

 

Will he reach the 200 mark?

He may reach 200 but I think it's great he doesn't care. If I remember correctly with the Marlins Preston Wilson was benched a few games so he wouldn't set the K mark and there was another guy, I forget who, who was also benched so he wouldn't break it.

jose hernandez, iirc