Last season we ended with a ton of hopes for our rotation. This season, 3/5 of our projected rotation has basically been on the DL all season, with at least one of them slated to be out all of 2008. Dontrelle has struggled, Olsen has dissapointed, And while Mitre looked good the first half of the season he is basically done for now after tripling his IP from last season, and I am worried of how his arm will hold up with that in mind. Same concerns for Vandenhurk. So where does this lead us with respect to our 2008 rotation? Will anyone else be ready? Or is there any chance at all that we go after any more starting pitching?

 

Not to say that our offense is perfect, but I think starting pitching has clearly been the issue that has cost us this season, even if we could've had a few more timely hits.

1. Shut down Vanden Hurk last month.

2. Shut down Mitre

3. Fire Rick Kranitz

4. Hire Mark Wiley

5. Hope Wiley gets Willis back to a sub 4.00 guy.

6. Work on getting Olsen a better change up.

7. Let Volstad and Gaby battle it out for a spot in ST.

8. Don't rely on Anibal or JJ to pitch at any point in 08 for the Florida Marlins.

9. Go into 08 with Dontrelle, Vanden Hurk, Olsen, Mitre and one of Gaby/Volstad

10. And most importantly with 3 groundball pitchers on the staff - Somehow, someway improve the IF defense. Look to move Uggla and Jacobs and replace them with ++ defenders. Keep Cabrera thin and hope Hanley makes the expected progress on defense and stops with the mental errors.

Mark Wiley...yeah, I do remember even from the start last season lamenting the decision to not stick with him.

 

I don't think Uggla really ought to be the target of IF defense improvement. Unless much has changed from last season that I am unaware of, he is still the most reliable of the 4 IFers defensively. Not that it says much given the company.

It begins with firing Rick Kranitz. Even if you don't believe he's at fault, a message needs to be sent that this type of performance is not acceptable. Period.

 

I think JJ and Sanchez are exhibits 1 and 1A for precautionary MRI's when "no throw" gets used with a player.

 

I also think JJ and Sanchez exemplify how serious the 80 IP bump from one year to next is, and how seriously we need to stick to it.

Mark Wiley...yeah, I do remember even from the start last season lamenting the decision to not stick with him.

 

I don't think Uggla really ought to be the target of IF defense improvement. Unless much has changed from last season that I am unaware of, he is still the most reliable of the 4 IFers defensively. Not that it says much given the company.

 

 

meh. He has absolutely no range.

10. And most importantly with 3 groundball pitchers on the staff - Somehow, someway improve the IF defense. Look to move Uggla and Jacobs and replace them with ++ defenders. Keep Cabrera thin and hope Hanley makes the expected progress on defense and stops with the mental errors.

 

I also agree with this. But not necessarily for the aforementioned reasons.

 

I think, if the Marlins are serious about winning and spending money in the name of winning, trading Uggla for an elite centerfielder makes a ton of sense, signing a free agent second baseman who fits team need (Castillo, anyone?), packaging Jacobs with Uggla if need be, sticking Willingham at first (where he is a good defender) and signing a corner bopper bat that'll take a one year deal (Alou, Bonds) makes us an insta-contender in the incredibly incredibly old NL East of 2008.

This won't be a good starting pitching team again until 2009,I think.Assuming Willis stays and Olsen improves dramatically,we still have to deal with Sanchez and JJ being out for most if not all of next year,and Mitre can go in either direction as well as Nolasco.So basically they still have to fill three spots in the rotation...should make for another "interesting" year.

1 - Dontrelle Willis

2 - TBA

3 - TBA

4 - TBA

5 - TBA

10. And most importantly with 3 groundball pitchers on the staff - Somehow, someway improve the IF defense. Look to move Uggla and Jacobs and replace them with ++ defenders. Keep Cabrera thin and hope Hanley makes the expected progress on defense and stops with the mental errors.

 

I also agree with this. But not necessarily for the aforementioned reasons.

 

I think, if the Marlins are serious about winning and spending money in the name of winning, trading Uggla for an elite centerfielder makes a ton of sense, signing a free agent second baseman who fits team need (Castillo, anyone?), packaging Jacobs with Uggla if need be, sticking Willingham at first (where he is a good defender) and signing a corner bopper bat that'll take a one year deal (Alou, Bonds) makes us an insta-contender in the incredibly incredibly old NL East of 2008.

 

I like your ideas, but if we don't trade Uggla for a CF, I'd rather not trade him.

10. And most importantly with 3 groundball pitchers on the staff - Somehow, someway improve the IF defense. Look to move Uggla and Jacobs and replace them with ++ defenders. Keep Cabrera thin and hope Hanley makes the expected progress on defense and stops with the mental errors.

 

I also agree with this. But not necessarily for the aforementioned reasons.

 

I think, if the Marlins are serious about winning and spending money in the name of winning, trading Uggla for an elite centerfielder makes a ton of sense, signing a free agent second baseman who fits team need (Castillo, anyone?), packaging Jacobs with Uggla if need be, sticking Willingham at first (where he is a good defender) and signing a corner bopper bat that'll take a one year deal (Alou, Bonds) makes us an insta-contender in the incredibly incredibly old NL East of 2008.

 

 

Quite the wish list. Not gonna happen. Here's the reality as I see it. Payroll will increase some, but not by the amount you want it to. Catcher situation will be addressed first and foremost. MAYBE bring someone in to compete for that CF job. But actually I don't think that will be looked at seriously until near the end of Winter Ball IF (and I fully expect this to happen) they send DeAza out to some team to work on hitting off speed stuff and see how he fairs at that. The IF will stay the same as will the other OF spots. I really don't expect any major rise in payroll until maybe a year before we move into the new pond. About the same time the number of season tickets sales rise. But nice list.

10. And most importantly with 3 groundball pitchers on the staff - Somehow, someway improve the IF defense. Look to move Uggla and Jacobs and replace them with ++ defenders. Keep Cabrera thin and hope Hanley makes the expected progress on defense and stops with the mental errors.

 

I also agree with this. But not necessarily for the aforementioned reasons.

 

I think, if the Marlins are serious about winning and spending money in the name of winning, trading Uggla for an elite centerfielder makes a ton of sense, signing a free agent second baseman who fits team need (Castillo, anyone?), packaging Jacobs with Uggla if need be, sticking Willingham at first (where he is a good defender) and signing a corner bopper bat that'll take a one year deal (Alou, Bonds) makes us an insta-contender in the incredibly incredibly old NL East of 2008.

 

You think we'd be better off defensively with Willingham at first and Barry Bonds in left?? I actually think Willingham has turned himself into a pretty good leftfielder. Nothing special but average to slightly above average. The same can't be said for the 2007 version of Barry Bonds.

Starting pitching is the problem now and will be the problem next season.

 

2008 will be "a wait and see" year. The front office will stay with what we have until they can figure out who has made a good recovery from surgery (Johnson, Sanchez, Nolasco) and who has been able to come back from sub par year (Willis, Olsen, Mitre). They will also take a good look at Volstad and Gaby Hernandez in spring training to see if they can break into the rotation.

 

Our offense has not been the problem.

We can tinker with our everyday players to improve the defense, find another mediocre catcher and center fielder, but PITCHING has been our Achilles heel this year and will probably the biggest problem next year.

 

By 2009, the new ballpark issue should be settled and Loria will have images of $$$ in his brain and will spend cash to fill the holes that may exist. By that time we should definitely know who our starters will be (Willis, Johnson, Sanchez, Nolasco, Mitre, Olsen, Volstad, Hernandez, VandenHurk; pick your five)

 

2009 WILL BE OUR YEAR!!!!. Remember, we win World Series every 6 years.

I think Miguel's '09 arbitration salary will be close to $20 million and I have a hard time believing Loria / Beinfest will pay that much for one player (hard to outperform a $20 million salary) so I think '08 was supposed to be THE YEAR and things don't look too promising because of the staring pitching.

10. And most importantly with 3 groundball pitchers on the staff - Somehow, someway improve the IF defense. Look to move Uggla and Jacobs and replace them with ++ defenders. Keep Cabrera thin and hope Hanley makes the expected progress on defense and stops with the mental errors.

 

I also agree with this. But not necessarily for the aforementioned reasons.

 

I think, if the Marlins are serious about winning and spending money in the name of winning, trading Uggla for an elite centerfielder makes a ton of sense, signing a free agent second baseman who fits team need (Castillo, anyone?), packaging Jacobs with Uggla if need be, sticking Willingham at first (where he is a good defender) and signing a corner bopper bat that'll take a one year deal (Alou, Bonds) makes us an insta-contender in the incredibly incredibly old NL East of 2008.

 

You think we'd be better off defensively with Willingham at first and Barry Bonds in left?? I actually think Willingham has turned himself into a pretty good leftfielder. Nothing special but average to slightly above average. The same can't be said for the 2007 version of Barry Bonds.

 

Yes I do, and here's why. No one is going to mistake this for a great defensive team, but no one (save Jacobs) deserves to be benched over their defensive short comings because they are no less than serviceable at their respective position and put up elite offensive numbers for their position. Jacobs being the lone non-CF, non-C player who that can't be said about. He is not a good defensive first-baseman, making strides, but not nearly good enough with the glove, or the bat, to say that one negates the other's short-comings.

 

Willingham's bat (he of the .857 OPS) plays at any position, even 1st. From what I've seen in the spring, he's a good infielder. From what I gather about him, he's more comfortable on the infield.

 

You discard a player with a sub .800 OPS at first base, replace him at 1st with no less than an equally capable defender and a superior hitter, replace the displaced left fielder with a superior bat, and viola, we upgraded our defense and solved the problem of having a bat to hit behind Miguel.

 

That, and outfield defense still continues to be overrated. Not unimportant, but overrated. When you can add a bat like Bonds or Alou, you don't worry about defense.

1- Dontrelle Willis

 

The rest of the rotation will probably be dead on arrival at spring training thanks to Kranitz.

This ridiculous whining about Jacobs' defense day after day doesn't make the notion valid. Jacobs' defense this season, especially since he came back from his injury has been the most improved on the team. If he can stay healthy (which to me is a far bigger concern and a reason to consider finding a replacement) there's no reason why he can't a good (not great, not all-star) major league first baseman.

 

We all know where the biggest defensive shortcomings are on this team and they aren't at first or second base. At least not this season. Going forward both players have to improve, but there's any number of players whose needed improvement is far greater than theirs.

Lets bring back our 2003 man, the great WAYNE ROSENTHAL!!

Lets bring back our 2003 man, the great WAYNE ROSENTHAL!!

 

A blast from the past

I hate the notion of quantifying defense, truthfully, but here are three numbers to chew on:

 

.993, 8.48 and .842. That's Jacobs' fielding percentage, range factor and zone rating, respectively. Those triple crown categories put him BEHIND such defensive stalwarts as Carlos Delgado, Nomar Garciaparra, Tony Clark and Rich Aurillia.

 

Jacobs OPS? .762, putting him ahead of, ONLY, Jason Wood, Jeff Conine, Rich Aurillia, Scott Thorman, Olmedo Saenz and Robert Fick (those names are all the names of players who play 1st base and have 100 AB's).

 

We're talking, almost unequivocally, about the worst regular first baseman in the NL.

 

Jacobs' bat does not justify his glove, nor does his glove justify his bat.

The second half of the season a person would have to blind to *not* see the improvement Jacobs has shown. He is still a work in progress and I wouldn't debate that but now that he's healthy and not up every night with his new kids (remembering what D Lee looked like after the birth of his) I see, and I think the numbers lately show there is something there worth holding onto at least into the near future.

 

To call him the worst first baseman in the NL insulting and wrong. He's hitting lefties like crazy this season (.354) which was of course the big complaint last season, since the ASB his numbers are up, his he's gotten settled in after returning from injury and going through the transition to father, his numbers are up in almost every offensive category, he's hitting .311 over the last thirty days, his OPS for the period is over .800 and his defense is greatly improved.

 

Swift, this is not me looking for a fight but sometimes there is value in looking at both sides of the coin and recognizing when a player, especially one who played almost an entire season hurt in 2006 and then was injured again in 2007 (plus the kids) is showing improvement. Improvement is a good thing. Improvement should be recognized.

 

Since settling in and putting a couple of bad (offensive) streaks behind him he's trending up.

 

In the long run I can't say you'll be proven wrong but I submit you are off-base (no pun intended) by being ready to throw him out with the bath water. This is a much improved player than we saw last season and let's at least see what the remainder of September brings before we rush to judgment.

I fail to see any issue in this thread, and with the team. There are only three things we need to succeed over 162 games next year. If we have to throw out Dontrelle, Olsen, Mitre, G. Hernandez, and run a 4 man rotation for 3-4 weeks, no big deal. It's very likely anyways. By the time the team is ready to succeed for the summer stretch, we'll have 12 pitchers from the list of 18-20 pitchers below ready for MLB spots.

 

We have plenty of SP options (Dontrelle, Olsen, Mitre, Nolasco, Vanden Hurk, Anibal, G. Hernandez, Volstad, and even Barone).

We have plenty of RP options (Gregg, Lindstrom, Tank, Pinto, Kensing, Miller, C. Mart, Gardner, H. Garcia, Zarate, any SP rejects above, and hopefully Owens, J. Garcia).

We have the triplets (Cabrera, Hanley, Hermida), We have above average producers (Hammer, Uggla)

We have a solid core bench (Cody, Treanor, Amezaga)

We have strong hope for an .850 OPS (Jacobs)

 

We need a center fielder who, at minimum, can hit RHP .800+ OPS, and play league average or better defense.

We need a catcher who can catch baseballs and hit even a .700+ OPS.

We need to resign Aaron Boone, or a like player, to fill out the bench. (Jason Wood is not this).

 

And we've needed the first two of those things, for over a year and a half. Nothings new. Dontrelle isn't this bad. Olsen isn't this bad. The defense is going to improve with age, just how it does for a lot of players. People are calling out Mitre. The dude is freaking tired. They should obviously shut him down, but this was a huge year for him and he'll be valuable to us as a 5th starter or long reliever until superior players (Volstad, Thompson, Sinkbeil), start pushing him off the team. This is the best bullpen, talent and depth, the franchise has ever had. The lineup, is already sick. We're in great shape. The end result of this year is going to be real simple. We got a top 5 draft pick because of injuries, not because the team was constructed poorly. It'll only help us longterm as it brings better talent into the organization.

 

A best case scenario for me (assuming rationality and not blind faith for a series) is, the team is very competitive in 2008 where most of the pitchers establish themselves and Dontrelle is expendable at the break to bring us some hotshot at C or CF. No major injuries, healthy recoveries, etc, too. Then 2009, is THE year. No excuses in 2009. Win or go home.

I fail to see any issue in this thread, and with the team. There are only three things we need to succeed over 162 games next year. If we have to throw out Dontrelle, Olsen, Mitre, G. Hernandez, and run a 4 man rotation for 3-4 weeks, no big deal. It's very likely anyways. By the time the team is ready to succeed for the summer stretch, we'll have 12 pitchers from the list of 18-20 pitchers below ready for MLB spots.

 

We have plenty of SP options (Dontrelle, Olsen, Mitre, Nolasco, Vanden Hurk, Anibal, G. Hernandez, Volstad, and even Barone).

We have plenty of RP options (Gregg, Lindstrom, Tank, Pinto, Kensing, Miller, C. Mart, Gardner, H. Garcia, Zarate, any SP rejects above, and hopefully Owens, J. Garcia).

We have the triplets (Cabrera, Hanley, Hermida), We have above average producers (Hammer, Uggla)

We have a solid core bench (Cody, Treanor, Amezaga)

We have strong hope for an .850 OPS (Jacobs)

 

We need a center fielder who, at minimum, can hit RHP .800+ OPS, and play league average or better defense.

We need a catcher who can catch baseballs and hit even a .700+ OPS.

We need to resign Aaron Boone, or a like player, to fill out the bench. (Jason Wood is not this).

 

And we've needed the first two of those things, for over a year and a half. Nothings new. Dontrelle isn't this bad. Olsen isn't this bad. The defense is going to improve with age, just how it does for a lot of players. People are calling out Mitre. The dude is freaking tired. They should obviously shut him down, but this was a huge year for him and he'll be valuable to us as a 5th starter or long reliever until superior players (Volstad, Thompson, Sinkbeil), start pushing him off the team. This is the best bullpen, talent and depth, the franchise has ever had. The lineup, is already sick. We're in great shape. The end result of this year is going to be real simple. We got a top 5 draft pick because of injuries, not because the team was constructed poorly. It'll only help us longterm as it brings better talent into the organization.

 

A best case scenario for me (assuming rationality and not blind faith for a series) is, the team is very competitive in 2008 where most of the pitchers establish themselves and Dontrelle is expendable at the break to bring us some hotshot at C or CF. No major injuries, healthy recoveries, etc, too. Then 2009, is THE year. No excuses in 2009. Win or go home.

Next year the offense should once again be a strength. Top 4 or better.

 

I don't know how you can assume the defense will improve with age. The guys are older in '07 than they were in '06 and they've regressed. They'll improve with hard work, not with age.

 

On the starting pitching, Willis should bounce back but Olsen, Mitre and Nolasco have proven they can be 5th types and I wouldn't predict anything better out of them. If they pitch better than 5ths then take it as a pleasant surprise. I wouldn't predict much out of Anibal either because of the the injury. Anything we get out of him should be looked as another pleasant surprise. With RVH and the other babies, I don't follow the minors but last time I checked these guys (maybe 1?) weren't in the top 20 or top 50 of the top prospects lists so I wouldn't consider them locks or anything close to it to be quality MLB pitchers.

 

Regarding '09, I don't see Loria spending the $70+ million that it would take to keep the team together.

A best case scenario for me (assuming rationality and not blind faith for a series) is, the team is very competitive in 2008 where most of the pitchers establish themselves and Dontrelle is expendable at the break to bring us some hotshot at C or CF. No major injuries, healthy recoveries, etc, too. Then 2009, is THE year. No excuses in 2009. Win or go home.

 

With all due respect, the Marlins can't continue to operate under the same business philosophy we do currently and be a good team in 2009. Hanley, Hermida, Uggla, Willingham, Jacobs, Johnson, Olsen and Nolasco will all be in arbitration, and Cabrera will be in the final season of his. It's incredibly probable that any of the two aforementioned first year players and Cabrera will combine to make more money than the entire 2007 roster, and it's an almost certainty that Hanley, Uggla and Cabrera will combine for over $35 million by themselves.

 

Unless I see something startlingly to the contrary, this this team is 2008 or bust.

A best case scenario for me (assuming rationality and not blind faith for a series) is, the team is very competitive in 2008 where most of the pitchers establish themselves and Dontrelle is expendable at the break to bring us some hotshot at C or CF. No major injuries, healthy recoveries, etc, too. Then 2009, is THE year. No excuses in 2009. Win or go home.

 

With all due respect, the Marlins can't continue to operate under the same business philosophy we do currently and be a good team in 2009. Hanley, Hermida, Uggla, Willingham, Jacobs, Johnson, Olsen and Nolasco will all be in arbitration, and Cabrera will be in the final season of his. It's incredibly probable that any of the two aforementioned first year players and Cabrera will combine to make more money than the entire 2007 roster, and it's an almost certainty that Hanley, Uggla and Cabrera will combine for over $35 million by themselves.

 

Unless I see something startlingly to the contrary, this this team is 2008 or bust.

I disagree. And regardless of this or that team, I'm more interested in winning, versus the specific players we have.

 

Let's think about the 2009 staff. Volstad, G. Hernandez, Johnson, Anibal, Vanden Hurk. or Thompson, or Sinkbeil. Or whoever you want. Throw in Olsen for $3 million (generous), and middling arbitration numbers because of injuries, etc, regardless that most of them are still club controlled. Gregg will be gone, RP cost nothing if they are even at arbitration yet (assuming we don't allow any to get huge save numbers). We can literally be looking at a staff for $10 million. Worst case here, is like $12 or 13. Literally

 

Let's think about how we operate our bench. We don't, we find veteran scrubs for cheap and it always seems to turn out OK. Maybe they spend the extra cash and get the one big bat. Bench, let's just say $3 million. We'll give a high of $5

 

So now, do the 8 offensive starters on this ball club, make enough money where we can't afford them. Here is what I see.

Catcher - young dude gotten with trading Dontrelle OR, the organization going Baker/Hayes. Club controlled

1B - Jacobs. I dont see us giving up on him, even though I would move him probably. Is this guy performing to get a huge pay raise? No. $2 mil.

2B - Dan "Im not as good as Utley" Uggla. Chase made $4.5 in his arbitration buyout. Throw in inflation, I think he can approach this number, but he should absolutely not pass it. How about $4. This is very fair.

SS - Hanley; Young, Rollins, and Reyes all made $2.5 in year 4. Hanley is blowing them off the face of the planet. I'll concede to a DOUBLING rate here, which is an astronomical raise. This is a bigger raise than Cabrera proportionally, and really respects the talent Hanley is. $5.

3B - Cabrera. This is the big hit. $18-20.

OF - Hammer. Tough for comparables. Bay made $3.25 in year 4. Cuddyer, who we'll assume his year 5 is comparable to Hammer's year 4 because Josh is starting off much quicker, $3.5. My favorite though is Swisher who is making $3.5 as well. I think it's VERY safe to say Hammer is in the same range. We'll give him $3.5 too.

OF - Cheap Vet / Hot Shot rookie from dontrelle, or a cheap vet. This isn't a notable expense unless they do something crazy.

OF - Hermida I'm going to compare to Alex Rios, $2.5 and to a lesser extent but relevant, Dejesus, $2.5. You throw in the same guys in the Hammer category (I'd like to see Marakakis get his buyout already to add a more recent one too), and realize Hermida doesn't have the OMPH of statistical RBIS/Runs, even if he may be better than all of those players very shortly. We're looking at a $2.5-$3 for Jeremy. And that's assuming a big 08, which I believe.

 

Add it all up (or disbelieve past arbitration figures and think all the Marlins are going to win unprecedented raises) and the TEAM range is going to be $50-60 million dollars. It's not going to be anywhere near $70+ someone states (and I do note, that this number could be realistic if we were to keep both Dontrelle and Gregg, which I view as trades sometime within the next season and am intentionally dis-including).

 

For the most profitable team in baseball in 2006 and 2007 (note these are obvious non-contending years, where I don't disagree with the strategy of saving money on the rebuild, with intentions to 'raise' it when you are going for it. This point is arguable, but I have faith), and going to be real close to tops in 2008 if they aren't # 1. It's not going to be a stretch to pay this team, $55 million for one year. When Cabrera goes (and this could even be July 2009 if they suck, which saves more potential money), the team loses 1/3rd it's salary just like that. Dishing out 5th year pitchers because we have depth (Olsen), guys not worth arbitration money (especially Uggla, probably Jacobs), and salary can tumble down huge in 2010 if they don't win it in 09. Also, looking at the stadium situation. The Marlins becoming a wanted product is going to put pressure on south florida, or another city, into getting a stadium for a really good team, that has a looming deadline.

 

To sum it up, I don't see us having personnel problems with players and their salaries. Beinfest has done a good job keeping the books clear (and I'm ignoring that, he could have done better by buying out Cabrera, Dontrelle, Hanley), and we're set up to contend with a solid window with Cabrera for the one year, and a longterm window with Hanley, Hermida, and all the pitching and their hopeful development. Of course, I'd like us to hover $70-75 million, pay Cabrera, and rebuild around THAT team, but for lack of a good situation, the team composition is excellent. The only things I'm disappointed from this season are, 'pitching injuries', and use not trading Dontrelle if their was a package (like Clement/Balentein).

It begins with firing Rick Kranitz. Even if you don't believe he's at fault, a message needs to be sent that this type of performance is not acceptable. Period.

 

I think JJ and Sanchez are exhibits 1 and 1A for precautionary MRI's when "no throw" gets used with a player.

 

I also think JJ and Sanchez exemplify how serious the 80 IP bump from one year to next is, and how seriously we need to stick to it.

Kranitz is 100% at fault, don't kid yourself.