The point is that he's good now. 41 ABs followed by a decrease in performance does not signify inconsistency. And to say he was only good for half of a season is another misrepresentation. He missed all of April in 2007 and half of May. He struggled only until about June and put up awesome OBP from there on out. Hence, he put up more than solid numbers for the final 2/3 of his plate appearances. And the first third he was recovering from an injury.

 

Despite not giving a chance to hit lead off, Hermida at the very least has demonstrated a consistent ability to get on base. That is what the Marlins are looking for in a leadoff hitter. To say Ramirez is the only player to fill that role is completely ludicrous.

Listen, I don't think Hermida is a bad player. I just don't think he should bat leadoff. And that is more about the type of hitter (and baserunner) he is. I mean look at what happened today. If you flip Hermida & Hanley's spots, you lose those 2 runs. I think if anything, seeing what Hermida and Hanley did today goes more to my case that they should bat 1-2. Make it:

Hanley

Hermida

Willingham

Jacobs

Cantu

Uggla (He may flip-flop with Cantu once he gets out of his April-slump)

Rabelo

Amezaga

Pitcher

 

After watching today's game, if Hanley is gonna lead off, why put a whiff king like Uggla behind him; someone who can make good contact should be following Hanley. Just now Hanley walks, steals 2nd, and Uggla strikes out, lucky for him hermida picked up the rbi.

Because when Hermida was supposed to bat #2 in 06 he did bad before going on the DL, Uggla was put into that spot, and since it worked quite a bit in 06, they've been unwilling to change it. Now that Hermida is playing up to his early billing, he should get the #2 spot (IMHO).

So yeah........now is definitely the time to make the move. You don't give the second most at bats on the team to a guy who is struggling this badly.

Listen, I don't think Hermida is a bad player. I just don't think he should bat leadoff. And that is more about the type of hitter (and baserunner) he is. I mean look at what happened today. If you flip Hermida & Hanley's spots, you lose those 2 runs.

 

 

First, we probably don't lose those 2 runs. Second, one instance is nothing to base a decision on.

 

Hermida is a good baserunner, and likely has the best on-base skills of any Marlin. He would make a fine leadoff man.

I don't often buy the lineup "protection" argument because I think it's overused but in this case maybe Uggla is missing having Cabrera.

Well, Uggla never really hit for a high average or OBP so he was mistaken for a number two hitter since the beginning. His .282 avg in 2006 was admirable but outside of his SLG and home run numbers, he declined in both areas. It's strange...last season he walked more but hit less while striking out more.

 

I don't want to call him inconsistent but it seems like the only area where he is severely a letdown is in the power area. While I don't advocate Uggla hitting at the top of the order period, it is a question as to whether or not Ramirez hitting behind him would help his pitch selection.

Hanley doesn't hit 1st because no one else can. Thank goodness we aren't giving the most plate appearances merely because he fits the leadoff player model.

Any argument of where Hanley should hit should be part of a much larger argument focused on the overall offense.

Listen, I don't think Hermida is a bad player. I just don't think he should bat leadoff. And that is more about the type of hitter (and baserunner) he is. I mean look at what happened today. If you flip Hermida & Hanley's spots, you lose those 2 runs.

First, we probably don't lose those 2 runs. Second, one instance is nothing to base a decision on.

 

Hermida is a good baserunner, and likely has the best on-base skills of any Marlin. He would make a fine leadoff man.

Arguable on the first, but I agree on the second. It was just a hypothetical example.

 

But as to your assessments, I disagree on both. And Hanley has the best on-base skills of any Marlin.

 

Well, Uggla never really hit for a high average or OBP so he was mistaken for a number two hitter since the beginning. His .282 avg in 2006 was admirable but outside of his SLG and home run numbers, he declined in both areas. It's strange...last season he walked more but hit less while striking out more.

 

I don't want to call him inconsistent but it seems like the only area where he is severely a letdown is in the power area. While I don't advocate Uggla hitting at the top of the order period, it is a question as to whether or not Ramirez hitting behind him would help his pitch selection.

I don't think anyone ever mistook Uggla for a prototypical #2 hitter. He was put in because Hermida was hurt, and for a good long while in 2006, it worked. Girardi arguably never had a better option to hit #2 and Fredi has been unwilling to tweak the order beyond what he absolutely has to.

 

Now I agree that even Uggla when he's productive shouldn't bat 2nd, but there' also the fact (and hopefully we can all be honest and recognize it) that he will come out of his current slump and hit well again, so they don't want to seemingly reorder the lineup based on what may be perceived as a temporary situation.

 

And I disagree that this current slump has to do with the loss of Cabrera. He hit well below what hit for the season in April the last two years (batted 219 last April). He always starts slow. Give him a month or two, where ever he is batting in the lineup.

 

Hanley doesn't hit 1st because no one else can. Thank goodness we aren't giving the most plate appearances merely because he fits the leadoff player model.

Any argument of where Hanley should hit should be part of a much larger argument focused on the overall offense.

You're entitled to your opinion, but I'm sure most people think my "arguments" are too large already.

I don't think anyone ever mistook Uggla for a prototypical #2 hitter. He was put in because Hermida was hurt, and for a good long while in 2006, it worked. Girardi arguably never had a better option to hit #2 and Fredi has been unwilling to tweak the order beyond what he absolutely has to.

Willingham would have been another option. However, Uggla's OBP numbers in the minors already were quite decent.

 

Now I agree that even Uggla when he's productive shouldn't bat 2nd, but there' also the fact (and hopefully we can all be honest and recognize it) that he will come out of his current slump and hit well again, so they don't want to seemingly reorder the lineup based on what may be perceived as a temporary situation.

Then what's the point? Even if he's on fire, he's still a power hitter with little on base ability. He shouldn't be demoted temporarily. In all honesty the fact that he's been slumping has very little to do with it. It merely draws attention to a problem that already existed.

 

Arguable on the first, but I agree on the second. It was just a hypothetical example.

It doesn't work that way.

 

The only orderly way to define that scenario is through statistics and probability. When you have a hitter with a high OBP hitter before a hitter with a high AVG/SLG you increase the probability that a run will score. This is the model the Marlins need to be following, not haphazard (and fallacious) hypothetical scenarios that have no merit.

Willingham would have been another option. However, Uggla's OBP numbers in the minors already were quite decent.

Willingham was pegged to protect Cabrera if you remember. Without Hammer there, there'd be even less reason to pitch to Cabrera.

 

Then what's the point? Even if he's on fire, he's still a power hitter with little on base ability. He shouldn't be demoted temporarily. In all honesty the fact that he's been slumping has very little to do with it. It merely draws attention to a problem that already existed.

Not much point. I agree that he shouldn't be hitting #2. But I think some other people go beyond that as an issue on this board (not you). But it does go a little to the discussion of why he is and has been batting 2nd.

 

The only orderly way to define that scenario is through statistics and probability. When you have a hitter with a high OBP hitter before a hitter with a high AVG/SLG you increase the probability that a run will score. This is the model the Marlins need to be following, not haphazard (and fallacious) hypothetical scenarios that have no merit.

I was just throwing out an example as support, not as the basis for my argument. Again, the problem with this for us is that Hanley is tops for us in all 3 categories. Now of course, you say "lets put the next best OBP guy", and it seems reasonable, except we ignore speed in this. We look at Hanley's SLG and AVG and we forget the bases taken on bunt singles or the doubles his speed stretches into triples and we start to believe that with similar SLG percentages (562 vs 565) that Hanley somehow is the same type of power hitter as Cabrera - and he's not.

Willingham was pegged to protect Cabrera if you remember. Without Hammer there, there'd be even less reason to pitch to Cabrera.

That's what Uggla would have been used for.

 

I was just throwing out an example as support, not as the basis for my argument. Again, the problem with this for us is that Hanley is tops for us in all 3 categories. Now of course, you say "lets put the next best OBP guy", and it seems reasonable, except we ignore speed in this. We look at Hanley's SLG and AVG and we forget the bases taken on bunt singles or the doubles his speed stretches into triples and we start to believe that with similar SLG percentages (562 vs 565) that Hanley somehow is the same type of power hitter as Cabrera - and he's not.

Again, while his speed is likely inflating the SLG to a degree that does not affect his AB/HR ratio which is the best on the team. It becomes a stretch to assume that Willingham or Hermida are any better.

 

I did a brief (and crude) statistical analysis on the 2007 SLG from Cabrera and Ramirez. Their respective values are nearly identical (ca .562-.565). I attempted to determine the statistical impact of speed upon each value since of course doubles and triples have a fair amount of weight. Here we have an example of a fast player compared to an extremely slow one. The impact of doubles and triples upon the SLG resulted in only a seven percent higher weighting for Ramirez. However, I will say this is hard to visualize with nothing substantial to pin it to. For Hermida it is almost inconsequential.

 

Again, I think you are using too much blind intuition on this matter.

Again, I'm doing this all very quickly and it's quite possible that I've made a mistake. So if someone wants to recheck my math/logic, please be my guest. I'm trying to determine the relative impact of "baserunning significant" hits upon slugging percentage. It really isn't all that complicated so if there is general interest in this area, let me know and perhaps I will run more numbers.

 

Since SLG is directly influenced by total bases, here is the percentage impact of doubles and triples for the following Marlins players:

 

Ramirez: 0.31163

Cabrera: 0.24698

Hermida: 0.31754

Willingham: 0.31535

 

So unless what I calculated is drastically wrong, we learn from this either that the baserunning impact upon SLG is very much overstated or that it takes a completely slow and lumbering player to actually make a difference. It appears that Ramirez's SLG was more heavily influenced from his raw power since the numbers tended to favor Hermida and Willingham.

Looking at the extra bases of these four players, Hanley gets substantially more of his SLG % from doubles and triples than from homers while Cabrera and Hammer are just the opposite and Hermida is pretty much the same.

 

I think it's obvious that Hanley's speed is most helpful in him getting extra bases.

 

SLG from 2B and 3B

Hanley - .184

Cabrera - .146

Hermida - .145

Hammer - .134

 

SLG from HR

Cabrera - .204

Hammer - .183

Hanley - .146

Hermida - .142

There are two gaping holes with your calculations.

 

First of all, I would not use career numbers because the power productivity of the players, especially Ramirez has increased from 2006 to 2007. Ramirez evolved from an average power hitter to a near 30 HR hitter in the course of a year. That will heavily influence the numbers. Now, while you can make the case that 2006 did indeed happen, you need to ask yourself what model better fits the player he actually is. So far in 2008 he has more home runs than he has doubles. From 2006 to 2007 he nearly doubled his home run numbers with the same number of ABs and keeping his double total constant. That is an indication of true raw power.

 

Secondly, you cannot prove anything by sum totals of selected SLG statistics. You must weight them to something. Hanley might have higher totals just because he is a better hitter overall. It means nothing.

Again, while his speed is likely inflating the SLG to a degree that does not affect his AB/HR ratio which is the best on the team. It becomes a stretch to assume that Willingham or Hermida are any better.

Fair enough on the latter, but not the former. Hanley does hit inside the park HRs.

Before the season, I was all for a Ross full-time deal.

 

The way he's struggling, mixed with the lack of protection for Uggla, throw Amezega in the leadoff spot. The guy flat-out gets on base, and he can surely run the bases well enough to handle it. It's not something I would love to see permanently, but...

 

Amezega

Hermida

Ramirez

Jacobs

Uggla

Willingham

Cantu

Rabelo

 

I believe this lineup could go nuts. Ramirez batting third changes everything. You can't pitch around Amezega with a threat like Hermida behind him, who can pull off a number of plays (hit and run with AA on first, sac fly if he's at second, ect.) You can't pitch around Hermida because Hanley's right behind him, on top of the fact that if you do, he's just going to walk anyway. And even if you don't go after Ramirez, does anyone REALLY want to go after Mike Jacobs? I also like Uggla hitting in front of Willingham. It puts Dan in a position to drive in plenty of runs and use that power, and it also will give him some better stuff to hit considering Willingham is probably more feared than he is. It also helps if Cantu keeps it up.

 

All in all, this lineup up and down is pretty darn good.

My sense, unless he's said something recently I missed, is that Hanley prefers (or whatever word you want to use) to hit first and that closes debate on the subject, except perhaps in the hypothetical (and this isn't meant to disparage anyone's belief to the contrary). He's said a number of times that he's most comfortable there and while I think most can see him hitting further down in the order, it's between him and his manager.

I refuse to give any credence to what we think happens behind closed doors and what is fed to the media. Less than 20 percent of his career ABs have been in the third spot so it could just as easily be a matter of getting used to.

I refuse to give any credence to what we think happens behind closed doors and what is fed to the media. Less than 20 percent of his career ABs have been in the third spot so it could just as easily be a matter of getting used to.

 

*What* I posted isn't supposition or mind-reading, it's from Hanley's lips. He has been quoted a number of times saying he prefers the leadoff spot. He even said it at FanFest.

I think Fredi or maybe Beinfest should explain to him why hitting 3rd would be beneficial to him individually and to the overall team and then after the conversation I would move him.

There are members here who have been unsuccessful in making a clear and strong argument for why Hanley batting third or cleanup benefits the team despite spent the bulk of the past year and half trying to do so. What makes you think Beinfest and Fredi can do it?

There are members here who have been unsuccessful in making a clear and strong argument for why Hanley batting third or cleanup benefits the team despite spent the bulk of the past year and half trying to do so. What makes you think Beinfest and Fredi can do it?

Well I do think the "Bat Hanley third crowd" does have a couple of things that have changed to strengthen their argument:

 

The departure of Miguel Cabrera

The arrival of Cameron Maybin

 

however the latter hasn't actually happened yet, he is still in the minors. Perhaps when he comes up and does show he can be a leadoff hitter. Don't expect anyone else currently with the team to replace Hanley at the top spot. I suppose there's a small shot with De Aza if he gets healthy and can deliver on his ST numbers.

There are members here who have been unsuccessful in making a clear and strong argument for why Hanley batting third or cleanup benefits the team despite spent the bulk of the past year and half trying to do so. What makes you think Beinfest and Fredi can do it?

I know we have a lot of experts on here but even so I think maybe Beinfest knows a little more baseball than some of our experts, don't you think?

I think Beinfest and Fredi have a lot more to worry about what place Hanley "should" hit. You would think where Hanley hit wouldn't matter much in the big picture they're responsible for.

If scoring runs when hitting is important, then who hits where is important and they should worry about it.

If you read the some of the media articles on the team site, Gonzalez clearly has it in the back of his mind. In fact is was one of the first statements made by Gonzalez when he took over for Girardi. While I think the issue is more complex than any of us can possibly know, statistically I feel there is validity for him moving from the lead off spot. You want to keep the comfort of your best player in mind but you must remember that this is a team operation and for a lineup to function to its maximum potential, players must be ordered properly. Are we certain that Hermida is comfortable where he is hitting now? Would Uggla benefit from being demoted? What happens when Maybin joins the team for good?