October 28, 200322 yr But at the same time, take it more as fantasy than realism 1B- Trade Derrek Lee to the Padres for Ryan Klesko. SD wants a RH bat to break up Giles/Kotsay/Bourroghs..Lee is younger, and alot better defensively. Klesko, however only makes 5.5 or 6 M while Lee will probably get over 8, so we save around 3 M. 2B-Do everything in your power and re-sign Castillo...but if the market gets ridiculous for him, trade for a replacement. I;ve read he could get up to as much as 7 Mil per year and as much as i love Louie, thats just too much. If we do have to replace him, we wont get Alfonso Soriano or Jose Vidro...but someone like Junior Spivey could be interesting...with Alex Cintron playing well, I think the D-Back would move him for pitching help. SS-Re-sign Gonzalez...Future gold glover and proved hes a much better hitter than what he's shown. 3B-As much as I hate to say this..but..Trade Lowell. I love Mike Lowell to death, but i honestly dont believe he is a 35-40 HR hitter and he's probably going to be paid for being one after this year. He's the heart and soul of this team but I don't want any more C Johnson or P Wilson contracts and if Lowell is going to get 10 mila year to sign a long term deal, thats just too much. Put Miguel at 3B. LF-Niner, as clutch as they come, relativley cheap..no need to replace him CF-Pierre-no brainer RF-Trade Encarnacion. I Was shocked when i saw he could be awarded up to 6.5 mil in arbitration. Yes, he's very good defensively, and a good run producer...but his power is only adequate and i really dont feel comforatable paying him that much. Again, I like Enc, but I dont want bad contracts that force us to make dumb deals. I Replace him by signing Jose Guillen...Personally i doubt anyone gives Guillen a huge contract after the Jeffrey Hammonds debacle a few years ago..one good year wont get the bank anymore. I'd give him a 2 year deal at 3.5 mil per year with a lot of incentives. Club option for a 3rd year at 7 M per. C-Re-sign Pudge. This team wouldn't be the same without him...We have to keep him. Bench- Mordecai-What can I say? The little guy is as clutch as they come and is almost like a player-coach. Redmond or Castro-I love Ramon but i doubt he stick around to be a 3rd catcher again, and honestly, I think he deserves better. If pudge signs long term, deal Castro to the AL and do him a favor. Fox-If he takes a pay cut..800k is too much for a utility guy. IF not, replace him with anyone cheaper, maybe Hooper or trade for someone like Mark Bellhorn OF-Abraham Nunez-would make a nice pinch runner, and played well in the minors...he's earned his chance Harris-Nice bat off the bench Brian Banks-nice bat off the bench Pitchers- Beckett-No brainer Willis-no brainer Penny-showed as much improvment as Beckett did IMO. He's become a pitcher and not a thrower and he couldnt have picked a better time to do it. Pavano-I Sure as hell thought Pavano would be the odd man out but he stepped up big time and more than deserves to keep his job. Now, I;d like to keep both Redman and A.J...But that just isn't very realistic. Can't pay a 6th starter/long relief guy 3.5 mila year..So Trade Redman, and Helling can start until A.J. Is ready. Burnett has WAY too much upside to even consider moving him. Did the cubs move Kerry Wood after he had TJ surgery? I'll be IRATE if Burnett is let go Bullpen- Closer-Try and re-sign Urbina...and if he gets a big contract somewhere else, sign Keith Foulke to replace him. You need a top notch closer to compete seriously and the Phillies proved that to us last year. I love Urbina so i'd like to see him back, But something tells me he will take the most money and that probably wont be us. He had like a 1.4 ERA and a WHIP under 1 and an opposing BA of .170, so I think he will get plenty of interest. Foulke struggled a little down the stretch for the A's and for whaever reason, teams seem to lose confidence in him despite his incredible stats. Trade Looper..I'm indifferent with Looper, i dont really hate him as some do but I don't really like him. But you cant pay a setup guy 3 mil when you can only have a 60-70 mil payroll. Sign Joey Eischen..or trade for Scott Sauerbeck. Eischen had been more than dependable for the Spos the last 2 years and Sauerbeck, while he struggled mightily for the Bo-Sox, held Lefties under .200 BA. Re-sign Fox-No brainer IMO, He was huge. Trade for a RH Setup man Possibly in one of the Lowell/Juan E trades. The one guy that catches my eye is Justin Speier. He has a nasty slider, mid 90s fastball and a funky delivery. He's reasonably cheap and even saved some gaves for the Rocks. Have Almanza take a pay cut and let him battle it out with Tejera in spring training. Almanza pitched injuries throught last season, and he's always been a good LH Reliever, keeping lefties to .200 averages. The elbow injury didn't allow him to throw his best pitch, his curve, because the torque it puts on the elbow. Whoever outperforms the other in ST gets the 2nd lefty job. So in recap.... Juan Pierre Luis Castillo/Junior Spivey Pudge Rodriguez Miguel Cabrera Jose Guillen Ryan Klesko Jeff Conine Alex Gonzalez Bench: Redmond Mordi Fox Harris Nunez Banks Josh Beckett Brad Penny Carl Pavano Dontrelle Willis Rick Helling/A.J Burnett Ugeth Urbina/Keith Foulke Justin Speier Scott Sauerbeck/Joey Eischen Chad Fox Armando Almanza/Michael Tejera Nate Bump and possibly replace him with Helling when A..J is back
October 28, 200322 yr Jose Guillen is an intriguing idea, if he could be had for the right price. His bat really came around this year and he's got a cannon for an arm.
October 28, 200322 yr Good post. Very rarely does someone come off as well thought out with these posts. I do have some criticisms, of course. First, Redmond is going to cost more than Castro. I am not interested in Castro's feelings, only in his talent. If we can keep him around for another year, so be it. I would ditch Redmond because he is going to get more money than Castro. Castro has not a lot to show for PT. You cant trade Lowell. The S FL fan base would find that all too familiar with the '97-'98 debacle. You have to re-sign him, and I think it will be done at a reasonable price. Besides, a 3B with power is rare, and we do have 2 of them on this team. If Lowell wants to play for a champion in his hometown, he is going to have to settle for less money - which can be, and has been done before. Also, you have to re-sign Pudge. I think this will be done too. Pudge is not looking for just money here, he wanted a chance to be on a contender. He is going to be expected to get paid what he is worth, but will give us a HUGE discount b/c we took a chance on him when no one else would. We paid him back by getting him to the playoffs and a ring. That is not something he will overlook. That and we have the best pitching staff in MLB. That brings us to Urbina. I have a sneaking suspicion that if Pudge re-signs, he will too. This team has a strong family network to it, which has not been discussed so much by the media (because they are all haters) and Urbina is like the big brother to most of these guys. Again, a ring may help him stay and Pudge and he have the kiss going. I would hate to see that broken up! I do agree that Lee is gone. He is a very good 1B, I just wish he could have hit better in the postseason. He does have a huge hole in his swing. But we cant afford to keep him around financially. Castillo, could be gone. If it comes down to keeping he or Lowell, bye Castillo. Besides, he is not as fast as he used to be. In fact, this is one reason why I think he may stay - the interest for him has wained quite a bit. Most teams do not seem to think he is the player he was 2 seasons ago and are not thrilled about paying him the money he should be getting when they could allocate that money elsewhere. He may stay here because of lukewarm interest around MLB. If that is the case, look for something along the lines of the Pudge deal this last offseason. And he will prove himself too. AJ MUST be re-signed. Period. You dont let a guy like that get away, which is something a lot of these Marlin-haters want to see happening. It isnt going to happen. AJ will settle for less, considering that he is getting paid to sit on the bench of a World Series champ. He was itching to play, and will feel obligated to stay here to assert his stake in this team. Also, he will want to take back the #1 starter title from Beckett. That said, he may be pushing himself a little too hard to get back. Re-sign him, and keep Helling around to start until Beckett is ready - in SEPTEMBER. Please, no sooner than that. I like your idea of dealing Redman - if that is what it will take to keep Burnett. I think he, Encarnacion, Lee and Castillo are all expendable. Castillo a little less so because of his glove, but it all depends on what the market demands for him. Priorities: Pudge Lowell Burnett I think that most of this team will be together. I wouldnt be surprised if Mordecai retires. I want to see Abe Nunez on this team. I want to see Vlad Nunez either dealt or signed really, really cheap. We need lefty relief and I think Tejera is gone. Alamanza, who knows. Spooneybarger, who cares - I hope he makes it back, but I am totally unimpressed with him. Looper, could be too much money. Fact is, there is too much fluidity to really assess this situation right now. I am sure that Loria & Co. are sorting this out - after the parades.
October 28, 200322 yr I 've gotta say, I disagree with many of your picks. For one thing I doubt that there will be a 60-70 mil payroll. Where did you get that number? I'd be willing to bet (about a quarter) that the payroll will be no higher than 55 mil or so. Don't forget Pudge just jumped ship to agent Boras this year. Boras is known for big money contracts. Everybody will say all the right things about him trying to stay with the fish, but he's coming off a monster year when he commanded 10 mil as a question mark after two injury riddled seasons. He's in for the big bucks this time, and the Marlins can't afford him. But not to worry, I think Castro is going to more than carry the load. Lee is never going to be worth more on the trading block, and with Conine on board, it's adios Lee. They should get some good value for him. Castillo is going to command too much to justify resigning him. He will be missed but not for as long as you might think. Encarnacion may very well be traded too, if they can get anything for him. 90+ RBIs make him a fair trade value. THe super subs will for the most part, be gone, because they become an unaffordable luxury. There are other big leaugers available who will be adequate, and more affordable. Gonalez will be here. He's adequate as a 8 hitter, and above avg defensively. And they can pay him. The money saved on letting some of those guys go can be spent to keep as much of that pitching staff together as possible. Although I think Uggie is history. I would like to see Lowell resigned. I think he is a 30+ HR guy, and has a nose for the RBI. The more important thing for me is that he has consistently good ABs. He continues to improve as a hitter, and with him and Conine in the linueup, yoiu have two guys with great approaches.
October 28, 200322 yr Lineup: Juan Pierre - CF Alex Clinton - 2B Pudge Rodriguez - C Vlad Guerrero - RF Miguel Cabrera - 3B Jeff Conine - LF Nick Johnson - 1B Alex Gonzalez - SS SP : Josh Beckett Brad Penny Carl Pavano Dontrelle Willis Mark Redman Bullpen : AJ Burnett Micheal Tejera Bradan Looper Nate Bump Tommy Phelps Chad Fox Allen Levrault Bench : Lenny Harris Ramon Castro Todd H'Worth Brian Banks Mike Mordecai
October 28, 200322 yr Alex Cintron? Good choice. He fits well for the team. Is he a free agent? I don't think he is. Would we trade Lee for him (and Lowell for Johnson)? Heavy price, could we get a reliever from them too? That would be nice, but Arizona doesn't have another shortstop on their roster. Counsell or Spivey, maybe. Maybe soem think Olson is ready after batting .260 in AAA. But they already have Hillenbrand (arb. eligible) and Overbay manning the corners of the infield and are in the midst of a rebuilding project. A $8 million dollar Lee or contract-year Lowell is not going to be in their plans. But, hell, even without Vlady that's a good team. Though the bullpen is very weak. Tejera, Bump, Phelps, Levrault? These are AAAA players and can not be relied on too often. Entering spring training only Fox (if resigned), Looper and maybe Urbina will have secured their slots. Everyone else will have to compete against the 10 minor league free agents we bring in. Good job.
October 28, 200322 yr Author Arizona won't trade Cintron...he's young and cheap and showed a lot of upside..Spivey could go however, and thats what I was getting at... And I realize it's fun to dream...but do you guys honestly think we have a shot at getting Guerrero? We're going to have enough problems keeping half our guys here...let alone adding the best free agent available since ARod and pay him 15 mil+
October 28, 200322 yr Guerrero is going to be a Oriole. Not a Marlin. link? or is this your opinion? damn, you'd kill for da fish to sign him huh? :thumbup
October 28, 200322 yr Author Guerrero is going to be a Oriole. Not a Marlin. link? or is this your opinion? damn, you'd kill for da fish to sign him huh? :thumbup I think we all would...But It just ain't gonna happen. And if it somehow did, Lowell and Pudge would have to be gone to free up that type of $.
October 28, 200322 yr Lineup: Juan Pierre - CF Alex Clinton - 2B Pudge Rodriguez - C Vlad Guerrero - RF Miguel Cabrera - 3B Jeff Conine - LF Nick Johnson - 1B Alex Gonzalez - SS SP : Josh Beckett Brad Penny Carl Pavano Dontrelle Willis Mark Redman Bullpen : AJ Burnett Micheal Tejera Bradan Looper Nate Bump Tommy Phelps Chad Fox Allen Levrault Bench : Lenny Harris Ramon Castro Todd H'Worth Brian Banks Mike Mordecai With the addition of Guerrero, that doesn't save enough money. I'm guessing Vlad is a 15 mill type of guy and the Marlins definitely can't afford it. Cintron at 2b and getting rid of Uggy I think is good for the pay roll, but bringing Vlad in cancels everything out bumping it up to what we started at.
October 28, 200322 yr Here is my projection for the lineup Catcher- Pudge will likely stay. He has considered firing Scott Boras, the moneygrubbing agent that by himself drove up baseball's salaries significantly. He really wants to stay down here. I expect a deal to be in place within a month. First Base- Derrek Lee is gone. The Marlins aren't going to pay him $7 million a year, and I hope nobody does. He is not worth that money to any team, despite his defensive ability. Conine can play this position until Jason Stokes is ready. Second Base-Castillo's free agent stock apparently slipped this offseason when he struggled, but I still expect difficulty keeping him. Another option is free agent second baseman Adam Kennedy. Shortstop- Alex Gonzalez will be here, despite his struggles at the plate. Third Base- Management will find a way to keep Lowell, hopefully long-term. Right-field- If Encarnacion becomes too expensive, the Marlins should consider one of the many other options available in right field, as this year has a really large right-field pool. Center-field- Juan Pierre is already signed for this season. Left-field- Miguel Cabrera should most certainly stay here unless Lowell is traded. Recap: C- Pudge Rodriguez 1B- Jeff Conine (or 1B trade acquisition) 2B- Luis Castillo/Adam Kennedy SS- Alex Gonzalez 3B- Mike Lowell RF- Juan Encarnacion/Jose Guillen CF-Juan Pierre LF- Miguel Cabrera
October 28, 200322 yr To get Vlad you have to Lose Encarnacion, Lee, Urbina, Castillo. Plus Holly could leave. You Might have Enought to sign the Big 3 of Pudge, Lowell, and Vlad. You sign cheap alternatives like Todd Walker. Trade for Nick Johnson (Encarnacion?)..
October 28, 200322 yr I'm sorry, but unless Vlad is willing to take like $5-8 million a year, which is highly doubtful, there is no way we will make any move at signing him. We're trying to be cost-conscious, unfortunately.
October 28, 200322 yr I'm sorry, but unless Vlad is willing to take like $5-8 million a year, which is highly doubtful, there is no way we will make any move at signing him. We're trying to be cost-conscious, unfortunately. i disagree 100%... respectfully of course
October 28, 200322 yr Loria will at least give Vlad the song and dance... add that with a few 0's and we have a deal :thumbup
October 28, 200322 yr I'd like to know how you think we can get him. All I know is that if you offered him $5 million a year, he would say, "That's a great incentives package!" :lol
October 28, 200322 yr Lee, Enc and Castillo are expendable, as much as I would like to see Castillo stay, I don't think it's going to happen. Urbina is gone too...The only players vital for next year are Pudge and Lowell...if we don't resign them this will look like the fire sale of 97'. :hat
October 28, 200322 yr I'd like to know how you think we can get him. give me your email I wanna hear your theory too (though I have a semi-theory of my own).
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