August 25, 200818 yr Far too early to predict much of anything, but since we have now had our practice with Fay the NHC presents you with: TD7 ...Tropical depression forms in the central Caribbean... at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to the southern border of Haiti. At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southwest peninsula of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic and Port-au-Prince westward. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued for Haiti from north of Port-au-Prince to the northern border of the Dominican Republic. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low pressure area in the Caribbean has become better organized and is now a tropical depression. At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.5 north...longitude 70.1 west or about 260 miles...415 km...southeast of Port au Prince Haiti. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr...and a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track the center of the tropical cyclone will be moving near or over southwestern Haiti on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast...and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches. The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 7 inches over Hispaniola...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 to 25 inches possible. These intense rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...15.5 N...70.1 W. Movement toward...northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
August 25, 200818 yr The current models. One has it dying an early death. Most have it remaining pretty well south (one taking a Fay-like track), one has it turning due north immediately and entering the Atlantic over the Turks and Caicos.
August 25, 200818 yr Author Correction to second paragraph... ...Caribbean depression strengthens into tropical storm... At 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic has upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning to a Hurricane Warning for the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to the southern border of Haiti. At 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for the southwest peninsula of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic and Port-au-Prince westward has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. At 2 PM EDT...1500 UTC...the tropical storm watch has been changed to a Hurricane Watch for Haiti from north of Port-au-Prince to the northern border of the Dominican Republic. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that Tropical Depression Seven has intensified into a tropical storm. At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was located near latitude 15.8 north...longitude 70.5 west or about 225 miles...365 km...south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti. Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track the center of Gustav will be moving near or over southwestern Haiti on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Gustav could strengthen into a hurricane prior to moving over land. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force reconnaissance plane is 996 mb...29.41 inches. Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 7 inches over Hispaniola...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 to 25 inches possible. These intense rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...15.8 N...70.5 W. Movement toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph. Minimum central pressure...996 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown Well, that happened in a hurry. TD @ 11, TS @ 2
August 25, 200818 yr Author The current models. One has it dying an early death. Most have it remaining pretty well south (one taking a Fay-like track), one has it turning due north immediately and entering the Atlantic over the Turks and Caicos. I notice the 2:00 model run dropped the NOGAPS model in favor of the UKMET model (the one with the early death.) The earlier NOGAPS run had it staying east of the Bahamas, but the latest one has it running up between the Bahamas and Florida (moved west from earlier.) Just found it interesting that weatherunderground decided to show a different model this time.
August 25, 200818 yr Correction to second paragraph... ...Caribbean depression strengthens into tropical storm... At 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic has upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning to a Hurricane Warning for the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to the southern border of Haiti. At 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for the southwest peninsula of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic and Port-au-Prince westward has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. At 2 PM EDT...1500 UTC...the tropical storm watch has been changed to a Hurricane Watch for Haiti from north of Port-au-Prince to the northern border of the Dominican Republic. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that Tropical Depression Seven has intensified into a tropical storm. At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was located near latitude 15.8 north...longitude 70.5 west or about 225 miles...365 km...south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti. Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track the center of Gustav will be moving near or over southwestern Haiti on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Gustav could strengthen into a hurricane prior to moving over land. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force reconnaissance plane is 996 mb...29.41 inches. Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 7 inches over Hispaniola...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 to 25 inches possible. These intense rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...15.8 N...70.5 W. Movement toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph. Minimum central pressure...996 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown Well, that happened in a hurry. TD @ 11, TS @ 2 that doesn't look good.
August 25, 200818 yr Author Track has now moved to the south, running along the length of Cuba. 000 WTNT32 KNHC 252344 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 800 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008 ...GUSTAV CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF BARAHONA TO SANTO DOMINGO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER HAITI ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO MOVING OVER LAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.4 N...71.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
August 25, 200818 yr Well I was up in Talahassee when Fay was there, its gonna suck this season, last year we didn't get nothin
August 26, 200818 yr Author All the models are now pretty much in agreement, taking Gustav just south of Cuba's coast, but crossing the western tip on it's way into the Gulf. It has been a while since I've seen all the models show so much agreement...that obviously means the storm will never follow THAT path :mis2
August 26, 200818 yr ruh roh, looks like another one headed toward New Orleans :confused I was thinking teh same thing, thats the last think New Orleans need. a Cat 3-5 hurricane.
August 26, 200818 yr All the models are now pretty much in agreement, taking Gustav just south of Cuba's coast, but crossing the western tip on it's way into the Gulf. It has been a while since I've seen all the models show so much agreement...that obviously means the storm will never follow THAT path :mis2 HA!!! I was thinking the same thing!! At least we have all the water & stuff from Fay. This one might be a doosey. I never put much stock in the early predictions. There are just too many variables. Let me know 2-3 days away. Then, we're talking serious sh*t. Don't get me wrong- I like going to Publix and spending my entire paycheck on water & cookies. But I get real concerned about 2-3 days away. That's when the crap really hits the fan. I never want to make myself nuts when it's so far out.
August 27, 200818 yr Gustav's development took a nosedive. It's back to a mid-strength tropical storm.
August 27, 200818 yr Gustav's development took a nosedive. It's back to a mid-strength tropical storm. Just wait until it hits warmer waters.
August 27, 200818 yr Gustav's development took a nosedive. It's back to a mid-strength tropical storm. Just wait until it hits warmer waters. everything I have seen is a cat 3-5 once it hits the warm and slow gulf waters. NO is screwed
August 28, 200818 yr At least they're being very aggressive about getting people out. Nagin said there would be no last resort shelters. Good- I hope the people of NO take this storm seriously. This is not Mardi Gras.
August 28, 200818 yr At least they're being very aggressive about getting people out. Nagin said there would be no last resort shelters. Good- I hope the people of NO take this storm seriously. This is not Mardi Gras. they have to be cant have that happen again. Buit very smart.
August 29, 200818 yr Scheduled to hit New Orleans as a category 4. Katrina was only a 2. Ouch. thats no good. it looks stronger, but is it smaller?
August 31, 200818 yr Here a link to current local news in New orleans http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html
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