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How fielding improved the 2008 Florida Marlins


Nny
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To understand what these stats mean, please read this thread: http://www.marlinbaseball.com/forums/index...showtopic=85846

 

The following is using the plus/minus stat

 

1st base

2007: -14

Jacobs=-10, Boone=-5, Wood=+1

 

2008: -22

Jacobs=-27, Helms=+2, Cantu=+3 (damn good 1b, had a +3 in only 286 inn. Well, small sample size, but he performed well in that sample size)

 

Jacobs ranked dead last out of 1B this year (30th).

 

ok so not exactly at first but....

 

Second Base

2007: -17

Uggla=-19, Amezaga=+2

 

2008: +11

Uggla=+4, Amezaga=+3, Andino=+4 (like Cantu, small sample size, but damn his defense is legit. +4 in only 89.2 inn played, same amount Uggla made in 1272.2 inn)

 

Last year, Uggla was 29 out of 30 second baseman. This year, he was 9th best. The increase in defense alone at 2b was worth about 1.5 wins. Then add in uggla OPSing nearly 100 points more. Talk about an upgrade at 2B between the years.

 

Third Base

2007:-30

Cabrera=-24, Boone=-3, Amezaga=-3

 

2008:-4

Cantu=-11, Amezaga=+2, Helms=+5

 

Cantu was 29th out of 30....so second worse this year, but hey we still improved defensively! Although I also blame last year's Cabrera on his oblique...he was only a -12 in 2006. But we improved by about 1.5 wins at 3rd via defense.

 

(And I really don't want to turn this thread into a Cantu v.s. Dallas thread, but just pointing out, one of the main reasons I wanted Dallas up was to improve defense like I stated often. Dallas had a +1 in '06 with over 200 inn with the angels...pretty small sample size, but you can tell the difference between that and Cantu being the 2nd worse 3b in baseball. Here's to cantu playing 1b next year! where he was f***ing awesome defensively)

 

and now I'm sure what everyone wants to see, just how much did Hanley improve?

 

Short Stop

2007:-37

Hanley=-37, Amezaga=+1, Andino=-1

 

2008:+6

Hanley=+3, Amezaga=+2, Andino=+1

 

Hanley improved his defense by 2 wins by himself! god damn. Main difference was going to his right. -21 plays going to his right last year, +10 this year.

 

So our IF itself improved our wins between 2007 and 2008 by about 4.5 wins by it's defensive alone (Hanley, Uggla, and Cantu improved it by 5 wins, and Jake took it down a half win).

 

Seriously just how f***ing awesome is Hanley? This just helps qualify it. Above average defensive SS with a f***ing .940 OPS. The guy with the highest VORP in baseball (aka the best offensive player in baseball taking position into consideration) is also an above average defensive player at the most important defensive posistion on the field. Can you guys comprehend how awesome he is? OH BY THE WAY HE HASN'T EVEN ENTERED HIS PRIME YET HAAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAH

 

jesus christ hanley

 

 

Left Field

2007:-17

Willingham=-18, Cody=+1, Carroll=+1, Linden=-3, Abercrombie=+1, Borchard=+1

 

2008:-1

Willingham=+10, Gonzo=-11, Cody=+2, Carroll=+1, Jones=-3

 

Talk about a huge improvement for Hammer. I'm still not completely sold on it, he was the 6th best LFer this year after being 27th last year. But fact remains he did it this year. RZR/OOZ also swhoed a huge improvement for him

 

2006: .819/30 (OOZ every 35.6 inn)

2007: .836/23 (OOZ every 51 inn)

2008: .903/35 (OOZ every 24.4 inn)

 

We also know how good his arm is yeah? Turns out he's awesome at stopping extra bases. This year he ranked 6th, last year 1st, and the year before 7th in it.

 

Right Field

2007:+11

Hermida=+7, Carroll=+2, Cody=+0, Borchard=+2

 

2008:+4

Hermida=+2, Gonzo=-1, Jones=-1, Carroll=+1, Cody=+3

 

So actually a bit of a hit there. Not only that, but damn Hermida is bad at keep extra base hits and shows that the hate he gets on his lollygagging on his defense is warranted but unproperly shown at his range and instead should be pointed to all the extra bases he gives up. He was 27th this year and 21 last year in that.

 

annnnnd now CF, JUST HOW AWESOME IS CODY?!?

 

Center Field

2007:+16

Amezaga=+15, Cody=+0, Linden=-7, De Aza=+5, Carroll=+3

 

2008:+30

Cody=+15, Amezaga=+10, Jones=+2, Maybin=+3

 

Although they scored the same, Amezaga's 2007 was in over 200 less innings. At the rate he was going, Amezaga would have had a +20. Still, Cody ranked as the 4th best CFer this year, and a huge improvement over last season.

 

So about 23 runs, or two wins, by our improved OF defense.

 

Meaning that our defense improved out team by about 7 wins.

 

real nice

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Anddd some more comments:

 

-This does NOT take into consideration park factors.

 

-A lot of people are probably going to jump on the improvements of Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla. But they didn't so much improve this year, but rather went back to what they should be and showed that 2006 was just an extreme regression.

 

in 2006, Uggla was at exactly +0, or exactly average. A +4 is certainly above average, but not by a great deal. So I think calling Uggla an average 2b would be the fairest thing.

 

Hanley ramirez was -6 in 2006. based off his +3 this year, again, I think it's something where you can say "ok, he's an average SS"

 

So, it's not about the "improvement", but rather the decline in 2006. I think the two biggest factors we can look at is 1) Perry Hill leaving and 2) no mandatory fielding practice. Andy Fox isn't going to replace Perry Hill but I think now that he got another year under his belt he was more comfortable and was able to do a better job. And ofcoarse, mandatory fielding practice is better than no mandatory fielding practice.

 

-Mike Jacobs is a really, really bad first baseman. The second worst was Jason Giambi at -18. Jacobs "won" by 9 plays.

 

Now in order to get the rough run amounts, you generally multiply by .5 (or half). Due to posistions having different importances though, I think it's better to multiply up the middle by .7 (2b, ss, CF), the important corners by .5 (3b and RF) and the less important corners by .3 (1b and LF). In this case, Jake costed us about 8 runs, or about 1 win under what an average 1B would do in the field. And a win is a win.

 

It should also be noted that, one of the problems with the statistics is that it only looks at the ability of a player to turn a batted ball at them into an out. So for a first baseman, it does not look at the ability to handle throws. And we all know just how horrible Jake is at that. So that's some more minus runs I'm sure.

 

He was also horrible at handling bunts, finishing 27th

 

-What I wonder is, since Hermida is so bad at giving up the extra bases, if we end up with Cody taking over for Hammer and Maybin in Center, it would probably be best to move Hermida to left and have Cody in right. Hermida does have a strong arm but obviously it isn't correlating to what it's use is. It ofcoarse all depends on who we end up getting as our third OFer though.

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I think a small footnote needs to be this doesn't take into account park factors. I guess there aren't many astroturf stadiums left, or ones with bizarre outfield dimensions/configurations, but it's just something to note at the end.

 

And that this information is not available publicly for minor league players, which I'm sure someone will muse about in evaluating milb talent.

 

 

Awesome job. But we've already talked about that. Kind of interested in Hermida LF, Maybin CF, Ross RF experiment in spring training and see if Jeremy is better off. And of course, getting Jacobs off the god damn team and the Cantu/G. Sanchez, McPherson/Cantu 1B and 3B platoons. From the numbers, that could easily be an extra 2-3 wins just on defense for 2009.

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Great statistical review... nothing about our catching situation?

 

All this is does is look at a players ability of turning a batted ball into an out. Since there are very limited situations where catchers deal with those situations (Only bunts and pop ups), it would not be useful for telling how good a catcher is defensively.

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Nny, would you mind explaining to me the logic behind using such numbers as .3 .5 and .7 for figuring out run amounts? Were these calculated or arbitrary (why not use .6 instead of .7)?

 

And thanks so much for doing this, I think it's really interesting!

 

 

From John Dewan (Creator of the plus/minus system) on his website, http://www.fieldingbible.com:

 

One thing we want to do in the future is translate these plus/minus numbers and all the other defensive metrics we have in this book into one number. That might be a number similar to Runs Created, but for defense not offense. Maybe it?s called Runs Prevented. But between you and me, you can use the rule of thumb that Bill James used in his article on Derek Jeter and Adam Everett.

 

That is, use a number a little less than half of the plus/minus number as an estimate of runs prevented. Since the value of a single is a little less than half a run, you can use a ?little less than half? of the plus/minus figure to estimate runs prevented. Adam Everett?s plus/minus figure of +33 could be estimated as preventing about 15 runs. Then using another rule of thumb that estimates the value of a win at 10 runs, Everett?s defense generates an extra 1? wins for the Astros in 2005. Since the Enhanced Plus/Minus System also factors in the value of extra bases, and each extra base is worth somewhat less than a single, you might use an even lower value (.20 for each plus/minus, perhaps?) for the difference between the Enhanced value and the Basic value. Since defense is not an exact science, however, I would suggest that using half and rounding down for both Basic and Enhanced Plus/Minus is close enough as an estimate. After all, it?s not horseshoes or hand grenades.

 

Doing a Runs Prevented calculation will be much more complicated than this estimate as we try to factor in our bunt rating, double play rating, outfielder throwing arms, errant-throw handling, Defensive Misplays (see page 239), etc. In fact, keep in mind that this estimating technique to translate plus/minus to runs or wins is relative to average. For example, Adrian Beltre?s +71 over three years at third base doesn?t exactly compare to Adam Everett?s +76 at shortstop. Both of these numbers are relative to the average player at their positions. But much more skill is required of the average shortstop than the average third baseman.

 

The .7 and .3 really are my own accord, to emphasize the importance of certain posistions (ss, 2b, cf) aswell as the fact that other posistions (LF, 1B) don't have anywhere near as much of an impact. Perhaps it's better to just use a strait .5 though across the board, as like he said, it's comparing to their own posistions.

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Where did Hanley rank in +/- ?

 

 

14th.

 

Although something that also should be pointed out is that the "qualified" player does not have to have as many inns as, say, qualify fielding percentage does for baseball. i.e. Hanley ranked as the 32nd SS last year. So even though there's only 30 teams, that mean that 32 SSs played enough to qualify. I'm unsure of the amount of qualified SS for this season, but it's generally around 30 for every posistion (again, because of there being 30 teams).

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Am I the only one here who thinks Hanley will be in the OF in about 2-3 years?

 

 

IMO, that would be a terrible move. And i dont think it will happen, ever.

 

 

I think it will, considering he's only 24. He's 6 foot 3, 200 lbs (could easily add some more weight, and increase his power production, at the plate...as he continues to get stronger).

 

As of right now...at 6 foot 3, 200 lbs...he's an average defensive SS. The bigger he gets the less range he's gonna have playing a critical position, like SS.

 

When it's all said and done (a couple years from now)...Hanley could be 6 foot 3, .215-220 lbs. Shortstops are, generally, not that big.

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When he's in his 30's, sure.

 

When A-Rod beefed up it didn't take that big of a tole on his defense.

 

Not saying it's impossible to happen in a few years but I doubt it.

 

And even then, moving him now would be pointless. You move it when it happens, not before it happens. I know right now you're not saying to move him now but I know you were argueing before we should move him now because he might not be able to stay at SS in a few years.

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And even then, moving him now would be pointless. You move it when it happens, not before it happens. I know right now you're not saying to move him now but I know you were argueing before we should move him now because he might not be able to stay at SS in a few years.

 

 

Yeah, that was just a silly suggestion, thinking outside the box, to hear people's reactions.

With that said, I honestly don't think he'll finish his career as a SS.

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Am I the only one here who thinks Hanley will be in the OF in about 2-3 years?

 

 

IMO, that would be a terrible move. And i dont think it will happen, ever.

 

 

I think it will, considering he's only 24. He's 6 foot 3, 200 lbs (could easily add some more weight, and increase his power production, at the plate...as he continues to get stronger).

 

As of right now...at 6 foot 3, 200 lbs...he's an average defensive SS. The bigger he gets the less range he's gonna have playing a critical position, like SS.

 

When it's all said and done (a couple years from now)...Hanley could be 6 foot 3, .215-220 lbs. Shortstops are, generally, not that big.

 

Ah, i see now. I didnt take into consideration that he'll get bigger as he gets older. But like Nny said, do it when it happens, not before. And even if we move hanley to OF or third base(which will block dominguez), who will replace him at shortstop?

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Am I the only one here who thinks Hanley will be in the OF in about 2-3 years?

 

 

IMO, that would be a terrible move. And i dont think it will happen, ever.

 

 

I think it will, considering he's only 24. He's 6 foot 3, 200 lbs (could easily add some more weight, and increase his power production, at the plate...as he continues to get stronger).

 

As of right now...at 6 foot 3, 200 lbs...he's an average defensive SS. The bigger he gets the less range he's gonna have playing a critical position, like SS.

 

When it's all said and done (a couple years from now)...Hanley could be 6 foot 3, .215-220 lbs. Shortstops are, generally, not that big.

 

As, i see now. I didnt take into consideration that he'll get bigger as he gets older. But like Nny said, do it when it happens, not before. And even if we move hanley to OF or third base(which will block dominguez), who will replace him at shortstop?

 

You know, he doesn't have to get fat. He could choose to stay in shape. You can control that sort of thing with some self discipline.

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Am I the only one here who thinks Hanley will be in the OF in about 2-3 years?

 

 

IMO, that would be a terrible move. And i dont think it will happen, ever.

 

 

I think it will, considering he's only 24. He's 6 foot 3, 200 lbs (could easily add some more weight, and increase his power production, at the plate...as he continues to get stronger).

 

As of right now...at 6 foot 3, 200 lbs...he's an average defensive SS. The bigger he gets the less range he's gonna have playing a critical position, like SS.

 

When it's all said and done (a couple years from now)...Hanley could be 6 foot 3, .215-220 lbs. Shortstops are, generally, not that big.

 

As, i see now. I didnt take into consideration that he'll get bigger as he gets older. But like Nny said, do it when it happens, not before. And even if we move hanley to OF or third base(which will block dominguez), who will replace him at shortstop?

 

You know, he doesn't have to get fat. He could choose to stay in shape. You can control that sort of thing with some self discipline.

 

We're not saying he's gonna get fat. We're saying eventually he'll add on 25-30 more pounds of muscle, and he'll out grow that position.

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