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Adjusted Top Prospects


MarlinsLou
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Just updating my running list with our new "4" players. Feel free to share your own and criticize.

 

My top prospects would be: (and non-qualifying major/minor leaguers without a lot of MLB performance)

 

1. Maybin A

2. Stanton A

3. Morrison B+ (either 1B/LF)

4. Dominguez B+

5. Coghlan B

6. G. Sanchez B

7. West B (SP)

8. Tucker B (RP)

9. Skipworth B

10. Smolenski B- (OF) < - Could fluctuate up if he can play middle infield

11. Thompson B- (SP)

12. Mobley B-

13. Hand B-

14. Cruz C+ (RP)

15. Sinkbiel C+ (RP)

16. Galloway C+

17. Cousins C+

18. Raynor C

19. Petersen C

20. J. Delgado C- (Other C-: Dean, Doolittle, Wood, Winters, Marceaux, Trahern, H. Garcia, C. Martinez, G. Taylor)

Top Sleeper - Correa (injured all last year, huge arm)

 

Non-qualifiers in the minors or just broke MLB team.

(A. Miller) A

(Volstad) B+

(McPherson) B-

(Bonifacio) C+

(Baker) C+

(Vanden Hurk) C+ (RP)

(Meyer) C

(Tankeresly) C

(Andino) C

Unknown - Owens injury status and his effects

 

If you're wondering my levels of evaluation

A - Potential Stars

B+ - Potential Above Average Starters

B - Potential Average Starters

B- - Potential Below Average Starters/Great Role Players

C+ - Potential Below Average Starters/Good Role Players

C - Potential Average Bench players

C- - Fringe MLB player

 

This is imperfect, like Baker was an A in production at the MLB level this year, but his prospect status really only says a C+ to me, and Galloway could turn into a B over night and Skipworth an A, the OF 16-19 could all skyrocket if everything goes right, etc. I just have to make adjustments for likelihood of panning out/level of competition, and overall potential. But this is generally what I think of the farm/youth right now.

 

Regardless how you rank them, this is a pretty legit farm system, especially coupled with the young talent that has just graduated with the parenthesis players below. The Olsen trade is disappointing in return, but still in good shape.

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I was hoping you were making an 'adjusted top prospects after the trade' thread and then you would not include any of the three prospects we got back in the adjusted top 20 prospects list. That would have gotten an :lol out of me.

 

I'd personally slide Smolinski (because of the injuries) down to where Cousins/Raynor are and move both of them up. I still think Raynor has B- value to some team as a CF.

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It seems like we have a bunch of RP arms, graded C- or better. This makes me happy, as the hope is that a couple of them turn into decent middle relivers or 7th inning guys, to be paired with Lindstrom, Nunez, Pinto, Tucker, etc.

Is this a typical spread for most teams minor league rosters? Or are we better/worse than average.

Am I expecting too much to hope that one or two of those guys could likely go with the aforementioned 4 guys to make a solid 6-man bullpen?

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I was hoping you were making an 'adjusted top prospects after the trade' thread and then you would not include any of the three prospects we got back in the adjusted top 20 prospects list. That would have gotten an :lol out of me.

 

I'd personally slide Smolinski (because of the injuries) down to where Cousins/Raynor are and move both of them up. I still think Raynor has B- value to some team as a CF.

He's good, the batting line is solid for his age. Based on his 2nd round pick status, they expect power to show up in the swing, and belief he might handle 2B, he seems like a guy who can translate well. I'm not worried about the injury because of his age. I'm optimistic. I agree I may be giving him the benefit of the doubt and finding a way to rationalize "the trade" better, but he's a nice prospect to have and see what we have in 2 years.

 

The scouting reports say Raynor plays a bad centerfield. I don't know if he's going to hit enough to live with the D there. But we'll see.

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It seems like we have a bunch of RP arms, graded C- or better. This makes me happy, as the hope is that a couple of them turn into decent middle relivers or 7th inning guys, to be paired with Lindstrom, Nunez, Pinto, Tucker, etc.

Is this a typical spread for most teams minor league rosters? Or are we better/worse than average.

Am I expecting too much to hope that one or two of those guys could likely go with the aforementioned 4 guys to make a solid 6-man bullpen?

We have an above average system right now. It's not elite because we need more SP prospects, but we have the best core of young hitters in A ball in baseball. Stanton, Morrison, Dominguez, Skipworth, and now Smolinksi is absurd. And it's not like the upper minors with Maybin, G. Sanchez, Coghlan, and the fringe outfielders aren't chumps. Let alone Baker and McPherson.

 

I fully expect us to develop a strong bullpen starting next year very soon. The attrition process is starting this spring training as someone is getting DFA'd. Then it's going to be survival of the fittest. The only downside is we don't have many lefties - Miller, Pinto, Tank, Meyer, West, and Thompson - is all we got. Miller is going to be a starter. Pinto walks a ton, Tank is who knows, Meyer could have a resurgence but we'll see, and West and Thompson are still being developed as starters. Something's going to give here. I think we will roll out Pinto, Meyer, and Tank as the 2009 lefties without worry, but if West and Thompson pan out as starters, we're going to need to go LOOGY shopping. Just a small organizational concern.

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imo with raynor's speed he should be able to atleast play an average CF like the other really fast but horrible route CFers out there.

 

But I'm also not a scout

You'd hope so. Who knows what the hell this flyball recognition problem is. I don't see him getting much reps in CF with De Aza and Carroll in NOLA with him, and our best defensive outfielder in Cousins just waiting for a call up to AAA.

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Not bad, but your throwing the A grade around a little too much. An A is a Longoria or a Bruce, and I guess you can argue Maybin but no way Stanton gets an A, you can't give a prospect an A that early in development.

 

Well congrats, you're probably the only one in that boat.

The giving an A grade to a kid whos never seen high A boat?

 

Absolutely, you're going to be quite lonely in that boat. Stanton could very well flame out, but there is little reason he is not an elite prospect right now

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Not bad, but your throwing the A grade around a little too much. An A is a Longoria or a Bruce, and I guess you can argue Maybin but no way Stanton gets an A, you can't give a prospect an A that early in development.

 

Well congrats, you're probably the only one in that boat.

The giving an A grade to a kid whos never seen high A boat?

 

Absolutely, you're going to be quite lonely in that boat. Stanton could very well flame out, but there is little reason he is not an elite prospect right now

Elite, absolutely, I'm just not sure if you understand prospect grades.

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Not bad, but your throwing the A grade around a little too much. An A is a Longoria or a Bruce, and I guess you can argue Maybin but no way Stanton gets an A, you can't give a prospect an A that early in development.

 

Well congrats, you're probably the only one in that boat.

The giving an A grade to a kid whos never seen high A boat?

 

Absolutely, you're going to be quite lonely in that boat. Stanton could very well flame out, but there is little reason he is not an elite prospect right now

Elite, absolutely, I'm just not sure if you understand prospect grades.

 

Perhaps it is you that doesn't understand them. I understand them fine, thanks.

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So a great season in the Sally warrants an A? Not a B+,or A- but an A? There's a bigger line between B+, A-,and A than you obviously think. An A means he has a great chance of becoming great in the Big leads. you can't make that assumption yet this early in his career. I say he stays at B+ for right now, with maybe, maybe a A-.

I'm going to try and do this mathematically, both to be brilliant and sarcastic at the same time.

 

I think a basic formula of any player is

 

AGE * 2 < HR = A if true

 

Stanton's Math

 

19 *2 < 39

 

38 < 39

 

Stanton = A

 

Booya. You can't argue Math.

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So a great season in the Sally warrants an A? Not a B+,or A- but an A? There's a bigger line between B+, A-,and A than you obviously think. An A means he has a great chance of becoming great in the Big leads. you can't make that assumption yet this early in his career. I say he stays at B+ for right now, with maybe, maybe a A-.

I'm going to try and do this mathematically, both to be brilliant and sarcastic at the same time.

 

I think a basic formula of any player is

 

AGE * 2 < HR = A if true

 

Stanton's Math

 

19 *2 < 39

 

38 < 39

 

Stanton = A

 

Booya. You can't argue Math.

hahaa

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So a great season in the Sally warrants an A? Not a B+,or A- but an A? There's a bigger line between B+, A-,and A than you obviously think. An A means he has a great chance of becoming great in the Big leads. you can't make that assumption yet this early in his career. I say he stays at B+ for right now, with maybe, maybe a A-.

I'm going to try and do this mathematically, both to be brilliant and sarcastic at the same time.

 

I think a basic formula of any player is

 

AGE * 2 < HR = A if true

 

Stanton's Math

 

19 *2 < 39

 

38 < 39

 

Stanton = A

 

Booya. You can't argue Math.

 

 

Booya is right! :knockout :woohoo :cheer :teach :kickbutt :bottom :putemup :high5

 

By including letters with Math you went algebratic on his ass!

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So a great season in the Sally warrants an A? Not a B+,or A- but an A? There's a bigger line between B+, A-,and A than you obviously think. An A means he has a great chance of becoming great in the Big leads. you can't make that assumption yet this early in his career. I say he stays at B+ for right now, with maybe, maybe a A-.

I'm going to try and do this mathematically, both to be brilliant and sarcastic at the same time.

 

I think a basic formula of any player is

 

AGE * 2 < HR = A if true

 

Stanton's Math

 

19 *2 < 39

 

38 < 39

 

Stanton = A

 

Booya. You can't argue Math.

 

 

Booya is right! :knockout :woohoo :cheer :teach :kickbutt :bottom :putemup :high5

 

By including letters with Math you went algebratic on his ass!

touche

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New updated rankings?

I'm guessing Ceda is a B or maybe a B+?

I'm of the opinion that this may just be enough RP arms. I'm not saying we won't need a Joe Nelson-type FA for this year while a couple of the guys continue developing, but we have plenty of talented kids in the minors to turn our bullpen into a major strength by 2010 or 2011, IMO. Still want a SP buddy for Mr. West....And catchers at any levels.

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New updated rankings?

I'm guessing Ceda is a B or maybe a B+?

I'm of the opinion that this may just be enough RP arms. I'm not saying we won't need a Joe Nelson-type FA for this year while a couple of the guys continue developing, but we have plenty of talented kids in the minors to turn our bullpen into a major strength by 2010 or 2011, IMO. Still want a SP buddy for Mr. West....And catchers at any levels.

1. Maybin A

2. Stanton A

3. Morrison B+

4. Dominguez B+

5. Coghlan B

6. G. Sanchez B

7. West B (SP)

8. Tucker B (RP)

9. Ceda (RP) B

10. Skipworth B

11. Thompson B- (SP)

12. Mobley B- (RP)

13. Hand B- (SP)

14. Cruz C+ (RP)

15. Galloway C+

16. Smolenski C+ (OF) < - Could fluctuate up fast if he can play 2B

17. Cousins C+

18. Sinkbiel C+ (RP)

18. Raynor C

20. Petersen C

 

I posted my last one when I didn't realize Smolenski had multiple ligament tears and is out half the year. He has to be knocked down. Also have to push Galloway up. I can't in good conscious put him above any of the bats below him, because if I had to pick one, I'd take him for the upside versus the more nominal performer.

 

I think we have a solid top 20, it's just slotting the guys a few spots here and there that's all the debate.

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I'm pretty stoked about our farm system seeing as how our #9 (I have him 13th) ranked guy is a consensus top 4 (most had him top 3) guy with the Chicago Cubs.

 

That's pretty cool, yeah. Wasn't that ranking before 2008 season? I think so, and he was really impressive in AA one they let him come out of the 'pen, so maybe he could've even moved higher.

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I would move raynor down personally because his age, lack of projected power and defense. He doesnt have the power for a corner OF and doesnt have the ability for CF. He is also rather old for the time and his level every time.

But he's still hitting. I think that is plenty low. Who goes in front of him? Delgado? Dean? Winters? Hickman? Not much behind him besides random fastballs.

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