Yeah I mean, we're talking about serious production at 2b that would be lost here. And banking on young guys with no major league experience to help fill that gap is not the safest bet. As much as I would love to see Cain in our staff, I'm afraid it's just not worth it for the short-term at least.

This is exactly how I feel. Coghlan hasn't played ONE game in the majors and we're ready to send Uggla down the river already? Not a smart idea. I would much rather that Coghlan gets more playing time off the bench and on Uggla's off days for awhile, and see how he does with that. Spring Training is never a good judge of how well someone will do in the regular season (see: Abraham Nunez a few years back).

Yeah I mean, we're talking about serious production at 2b that would be lost here. And banking on young guys with no major league experience to help fill that gap is not the safest bet. As much as I would love to see Cain in our staff, I'm afraid it's just not worth it for the short-term at least.

This is exactly how I feel. Coghlan hasn't played ONE game in the majors and we're ready to send Uggla down the river already? Not a smart idea. I would much rather that Coghlan gets more playing time off the bench and on Uggla's off days for awhile, and see how he does with that. Spring Training is never a good judge of how well someone will do in the regular season (see: Abraham Nunez a few years back).

 

 

If there's one thing Coghlan has proven, it's that he can get on base.

Just b/c he hasn't played one game at the ML level, doesn't mean that he's going to suck. That's how every player starts. His minor league career suggests he can be a solid hitter, for a 2B, who can have a good .OBP clip. While his defense is nothing to brag about, basically all scouting reports suggests he's not nearly as bad as the error #'s would lead you to infer...and we all know errors aren't the best measure to determine how good a player is defensively, anyways, but that argument is for another time.

 

Not saying we would be better off at 2B b/c we wouldn't...but if we could get a young pitcher of Cain's caliber for Uggla, I'd be willing to let Bonifacio play 2B, if that's the trade-off...and, as you all know, I'm not really a fan of Bonifacio's in terms of him starting.

Trading Uggla isn't going to happen. Not this season. Not unless the stadium deals fails or some other catastrophe. This franchise is all about contending this year and next in order to sell-out the stadium and at least 20,000 season tickets plus all those boxes. Lou's guarantees aside, this team is not going to get blown up over money, it wasn't this year and it won't next, and they'll spend what they need to spend to entice guys buying skyboxes to plunk down the big bucks - it's just another investment for the Marlins. If the team gets blown up and I agree with at least half the names on Lou's list, it will be over talent and not $$$.

Let's break it down to come to an accord.

 

Let's assume everyone does great in 2009 (this is like, Cantu/Hermida both over .800 OPS, the starters getting to 170+ innings, all the relievers under 4 eras, etc). Here is a realistic salary estimation for 2010. I take it you just trust me on the arbitration comparables on these.

 

C John Baker $420,000

1B G. Sanchez $410,000

2B Dan Uggla $9,000,000

3B Jorge Cantu $5,500,000

SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

LF Jeremy Hermida $5,000,000

CF Cameron Maybin $410,000

RF Cody Ross $5,000,000

 

B Dallas McPherson $1,500,000

B Wes Helms $950,000

B Alfredo Amezaga $2,000,000

B Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

B Mike Rabelo $420,000

 

SP Josh Johnson $3,750,000

SP Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

SP Chris Volstad $410,000

SP Andrew Miller $1,750,000

SP Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000

 

RP Matt Lindstrom $2,500,000

RP Leo Nunez $1,250,000

RP Scott Proctor $3,000,000

RP Logan Kensing $1,000,000

RP Reynel Pinto $1,000,000

RP Cruz/Badenhop $410,000

RP Meyer/Kroenke $410,000

 

$60,000,000

 

Yea, literally. The team's general cost shoots up that much from the $33-34ish range we are in 2009, to keeping together the exact 25 man roster in 2010.

 

So let's do the first round of cuts. We're keeping Hanley, Helms (our two contracts), all the club controlled players, let's keep the starting rotation, and let's add Tucker, Ceda, Morrison, Raynor, Coghlan, and Cousins, which I personally think is really really reasonable compared to their player development.

 

John Baker $420,000

G. Sanchez $410,000

Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

Logan Morrison $400,000

Cameron Maybin $410,000

Scott Cousins $400,000

 

John Raynor $400,000

Wes Helms $950,000

Chris Coghlan $400,000

Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

Mike Rabelo $420,000

 

Josh Johnson $3,750,000

Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

Chris Volstad $410,000

Andrew Miller $1,750,000

Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000

 

Tucker $410,000

Ceda $410,000

Cruz/Badenhop $410,000

Meyer/Kroenke $410,000

 

$25,670,000 < - Missing 1 middle infielder (bench/starter depending on what you think of Coghlan), Starting 3B, and 3 RP. Not so bad. Currently on this roster is 5 OF (Maybin, Cousins, Raynor, Morrison, Bonifacio), so we don't need any outfielders added. Goodbye Cody and Hermida. We are three deep at 1B (Gaby, Logan, Helms), so nothing there. We have 3B depth with Helms, Coghlan, and Bonifacio, so we're going to need to keep Cantu or Dallas here easily. SP wise we're great, and West is in AAA as the '6th' starter, and we have a very green bullpen.

 

Knowing the Marlins, we're going to keep at least two of the RP from Lindstrom, Nunez, Kensing, Pinto, and Tank (not shown above, but should be in line for a Kensing contract for 2010 as he will be arb eligible). I'm going to add in Lindstrom and Nunez, who arguably should be the best two going forward. We'll then add in say Thompson (the name isn't what really matters here for the CC guys, it's the price), as the 2nd left in the pen.

 

John Baker $420,000

G. Sanchez $410,000

Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

Logan Morrison $400,000

Cameron Maybin $410,000

Scott Cousins $400,000

 

John Raynor $400,000

Wes Helms $950,000

Chris Coghlan $400,000

Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

Mike Rabelo $420,000

 

Josh Johnson $3,750,000

Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

Chris Volstad $410,000

Andrew Miller $1,750,000

Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000

 

Matt Lindstrom $2,500,000

Leo Nunez $1,250,000

Tucker $410,000

Ceda $410,000

Cruz/Badenhop $410,000

Meyer/Kroenke $410,000

Thompson $400,000

 

$29,820,000 < - Starting 3B and another middle infielder

 

Currently not on payroll is this, which add up to $33 million and change.

 

Dan Uggla $9,000,000

Jorge Cantu $5,500,000

Jeremy Hermida $5,000,000

Cody Ross $5,000,000

Dallas McPherson $1,500,000

Alfredo Amezaga $2,000,000

Scott Proctor $3,000,000 (he will be a FA, this is a bit unfair I know, but still)

Logan Kensing $1,000,000

Reynel Pinto $1,000,000

Taylor Tankeresly $750,000

 

So I mean, who fits the starting 3B, or another middle infielder, mold here?

 

Dan Uggla $9,000,000

Jorge Cantu $5,500,000

Dallas McPherson $1,500,000

Alfredo Amezaga $2,000,000

 

So the question is, where do you have payroll going? It it's sub $35 million, there is no way we can afford Uggla unless we get rid of a SP, and Lindstrom, and then we'll have absolutely nothing at 3B (unless you play Uggla at 3B, and Coghlan at 2B, or vice versa, but that's another story and obviously brings up not fielding the best possible lineup debate). If it's just around $35, we could keep Cantu another year, and then just go and find another middle infielder to help Bonifacio as the do everything guy.

 

If it's $40, we can probably sneak Uggla and McPherson on the roster, and start 2010 like this:

 

C - Baker (Rabelo) - (we're going to assume Rabelo is replaced by a CC option. This is just for price here)

1B - G. Sanchez (Morrison, Helms)

2B - Uggla (Coghlan, Bonifacio)

SS - Hanley (Bonifacio)

3B - McPherson (Coghlan, Helms)

LF - Morrison (Raynor, Cousins)

CF - Maybin (Cousins, Raynor)

RF - Cousins (Raynor, Bonifacio)

B - Rabelo, Helms, Coghlan, Bonifacio, Raynor

SP - Johnson, Nolasco, Volstad, A. Miller, Anibal

RP - Lindstrom, Nunez, Tucker, Ceda, Cruz, Thompson, Kroenke

 

$40,320,000 < rough estimate

 

AAA - West, Vanden Hurk, Trahern, Leroux, Winters, G. Taylor, Wood

AA - Dominguez, Stanton

 

Trades to replenish system - Hermida, Ross, Cantu, Amezaga, Kensing, Pinto, and Tank

 

---

 

Personally, I suspect they keep payroll at the $35 level and will get such a good offer for Uggla they will go for it, make Coghlan the 2B, keep McPherson at 3B in 2010, and get a cheap 2nd middle infielder. That team is more in line with 2009 payroll constraints. I really don't think they push payroll up until the stadium, and in terms of contending, Uggla wouldn't make or break the team. It would still come down to the starting pitching. Of course this is in general hypothetical terms and some players could tank which effects their arbitration and our willingness to keep them, or severe regression in the minor leagues, but this serves as a footnote to all these longterm contract posts of how fast this team goes up in price. We can't afford this team past this year, and we're going to have to cut huge corners and hope for our minor leaguers to turn into legitimate options to remain in a relative contending state. As I've said before, I'm very optimistic on most of our minor league hitters coming up (and relievers) so I don't think this will be that huge of a problem.

 

Even longer, 2011 - Start thinking $6+ million for Nolasco, Johnson, $4+ for Anibal, Volstad, Hanley jumps to $11,000,000, and just like that your SS and starting 5 (Volstad still CC), is approaching $32 million (minimum) just by themselves. That's 6/25 on the 25 man roster at our 2009 salary level. We can't afford to dish out longterm deals to Uggla, or other guys, right now, when we have this looming surge down the road.

 

We need payroll flexibility right now to figure out who we want to keep. This is my point. We're in great shape, we just have to wait and see. I'm tired of all this Uggla whining.

/thread. Excellent post. :thumbup

 

While I think $9 mil is a bit of an overestimation, I highly doubt we give him another $5 mil after this year no matter what kind of season he has.

 

If there's one thing Coghlan has proven, it's that he can get on base.

Just b/c he hasn't played one game at the ML level, doesn't mean that he's going to suck. That's how every player starts. His minor league career suggests he can be a solid hitter, for a 2B, who can have a good .OBP clip. While his defense is nothing to brag about, basically all scouting reports suggests he's not nearly as bad as the error #'s would lead you to infer...and we all know errors aren't the best measure to determine how good a player is defensively, anyways, but that argument is for another time.

 

Not saying we would be better off at 2B b/c we wouldn't...but if we could get a young pitcher of Cain's caliber for Uggla, I'd be willing to let Bonifacio play 2B, if that's the trade-off...and, as you all know, I'm not really a fan of Bonifacio's in terms of him starting.

Huh? You get through praising Coghlan then say you'd be willing to let Emilio play 2B? I'm confused. Do you mean to say even if we didn't have Coghlan you'd be willing to do this trade? If so, I must say you're batshit insane.

Asked about his chances of signing long-term, Uggla said: "I don't know. That's something they have to think about. I'm not worried about it. I have no problem going year-to-year. You have to wait and see what happens."

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...sp&c_id=fla

While I think $9 mil is a bit of an overestimation, I highly doubt we give him another $5 mil after this year no matter what kind of season he has.

Sure, but it's just over-estimating it. Utley made a little over $8 million in year 5 (included 1/3rd of payable signing bonus), so slotting Uggla just above that because of inflation/not getting a long term deal, is about right. Even at $8 million (which is the lowest I'd be comfortable going), Uggla still represents "to much" for the $35 million scenario, and just sneaking into a $40 million payroll if we are really creative with a few club controlled starters, club controlled bench, and green bullpen.

dude, Uggla's getting $6 million in arbitration. Miguel Cabrera got $7.4 million after winning his case, so there's no way in hell Uggla gets more than what M-Cabs got in his first year eligible.

Huh? You get through praising Coghlan then say you'd be willing to let Emilio play 2B? I'm confused. Do you mean to say even if we didn't have Coghlan you'd be willing to do this trade? If so, I must say you're batshit insane.

 

 

Yes, it's exactly what I'm saying.

As for me being "batshit insane" I'm no more "batshit insane" than those people who think our starting rotation is all fine and dandy heading into the year.

 

A starting rotation is more valuable than an inconsistent slugging 2B.

I doubt anybody believes our starting rotation is perfect. We have great potential in the rotation, but also a lot of uncertainty. Many of us are excited to see what Volstad can produce in an entire season. We want to see if Nolasco can continue to pick up where he left off last season. We all know that JJ is going to be his usual self. Andrew Miller needs to stay healthy and gain control over his pitches, hopefully our staff fixes that ASAP, i heard that we are tweaking his delivery, which can be both bad and good. Anibal we saw can be a dominent pitcher (2006), the problem is since the surgery, he hasn't been himself. He doesn't have the dominent stuff to make up for the control issues and lacks a knockout pitch, but if he can reestablish his 2006 form, he could be the X factor of our rotation and be a key part of our 2009 success.

So how many people heard Evan Cohen's interview last night? I'm betting none of the naysayers.

 

Here's a few things that have been left out of this thread and Juan Rodriguez's highly edited "transcript". What you read was a piece of a piece of a piece.

 

What you read is only half the story. Evan couldn't even be bothered to mention FanFest, he could care less why Dan and the other Marlins were there. From question one (he obviously was prepared to bushwhack Uggla, he had all these quotes ready beforehand and they are on a remote in a bar not back in the studio) until the next to last question all he did was badger Dan about wanting a contract. "You're not jealous?" "(Dan) No, no one deserves a contract like Hanley's except Hanley, he's been the best player on the team for three years...one of the best in the league..." (Evan)..."I know I'd be mad if someone on my team made more than me. How about you Dan, you angry?". He took what Samson said way out of context, when Dan tried to laugh off his questions Evan would either just talk over him and drown him out or badger him some more. Evan had no interest in anything baseball-related except, as he usually does (he's a Mets fan so you can understand why) bashing the Marlins and Dan was as much a victim yesterday as anything else. Dan had good things to say about the organization, about Beinfest, about Samson. And about the team but Evan wasn't interested. At one point Evan refers to Marlins players (Dan's teammates) as being "picked off the scrap heap" to Dan. When Dan started talking up the Marlins chances this season the interview ended.

 

I paraphrased above but that's pretty much how it went.

 

As for Lou's response the simple answer is once July comes and they can officially start construction of the new stadium this team will start spending money to win regardless of what you've heard (most of which was for the local consumption of commissioners voting on the deal) because close to a billion dollars worth of sales hangs in the balance. What Lou hasn't accepted yet is that the new constituency becomes the operators of the 100 biggest busineses in South Florida, the Ryders, the Burger Kings, and will want to associate themselves (by buying seating and boxes and advertising and cross-promotions and tie-ins) with a winner, and $20-30-40 million over the next couple of years to seal the deal is just part of the cost of sales. It isn't about winning in 2012, it's about winning in 2009 and 2010 and 2011 that will drive corporate sales and annual revenues north of $150 million annually from the day they open the new park.

 

The amount of money on the line is staggering, jaw-dropping. If Uggla goes it's because they can make the team better without him but as long as he is perceived as important to winning, he stays. The rest, the Cantus, McPs etc are gone no matter what. Dominguez is the third baseman sooner than later, ditto Stanton and Morrison. When they are ready the others go. Why? Because they are better. They say Matt Dominguez can play MLB third base now, they are going to give him a year like Maybin for his bat to catch up. If you listen Beinfest has been saying this for a while now.

Yeah I mean, we're talking about serious production at 2b that would be lost here. And banking on young guys with no major league experience to help fill that gap is not the safest bet. As much as I would love to see Cain in our staff, I'm afraid it's just not worth it for the short-term at least.

This is exactly how I feel. Coghlan hasn't played ONE game in the majors and we're ready to send Uggla down the river already? Not a smart idea. I would much rather that Coghlan gets more playing time off the bench and on Uggla's off days for awhile, and see how he does with that. Spring Training is never a good judge of how well someone will do in the regular season (see: Abraham Nunez a few years back).

 

At least SOMEONE agrees with me :thumbup

As for Lou's response the simple answer is once July comes and they can officially start construction of the new stadium this team will start spending money to win regardless of what you've heard (most of which was for the local consumption of commissioners voting on the deal) because close to a billion dollars worth of sales hangs in the balance. What Lou hasn't accepted yet is that the new constituency becomes the operators of the 100 biggest busineses in South Florida, the Ryders, the Burger Kings, and will want to associate themselves (by buying seating and boxes and advertising and cross-promotions and tie-ins) with a winner, and $20-30-40 million over the next couple of years to seal the deal is just part of the cost of sales. It isn't about winning in 2012, it's about winning in 2009 and 2010 and 2011 that will drive corporate sales and annual revenues north of $150 million annually from the day they open the new park.

 

The amount of money on the line is staggering, jaw-dropping. If Uggla goes it's because they can make the team better without him but as long as he is perceived as important to winning, he stays. The rest, the Cantus, McPs etc are gone no matter what. Dominguez is the third baseman sooner than later, ditto Stanton and Morrison. When they are ready the others go. Why? Because they are better. They say Matt Dominguez can play MLB third base now, they are going to give him a year like Maybin for his bat to catch up. If you listen Beinfest has been saying this for a while now.

Sure, that's one argument. I don't see payroll going to $40-45 million two years before it opens. This team is going to be "good," with or without some of these players. A $8-10 million Uggla in 2010 is not creating corporate sponsorship for 2012. What's going to be his added win value over another 2B? 1 win (assuming he remains .850 ops range and mediocre at best defense). Literally. Maybe 2011 it bumps to $40-45 to keep the PITCHING together to catapult into the stadium, but you are a year premature here.

 

Also, Dominguez's bat is 2-3 years away, they only speak of him MLB ready as a defensive player.

I'm only telling you what he said the other night.

 

As for payroll, you like math, do some. 2,000,000 attendance, 3000 luxury seats at 150 per times 81 games x minimum five year commitment plus the 60 boxes at minimum seven year commitment. The number works out to over $800 million in the first five years...that's a lot of selling...

 

and no I'm not premature at all here...

 

in this economy payroll becomes a function of sales, they will spend whatever they have to meet their sales quotas

I'm only telling you what he said the other night.

 

As for payroll, you like math, do some. 2,000,000 attendance, 3000 luxury seats at 150 per times 81 games x minimum five year commitment plus the 60 boxes at minimum seven year commitment. The number works out to over $800 million in the first five years...that's a lot of selling...

 

and no I'm not premature at all here...

 

in this economy payroll becomes a function of sales, they will spend whatever they have to meet their sales quotas

And flat out, keeping Dan Uggla, effects these numbers.

 

I'm telling you, they lowball payroll until that stadium allows them to expand to the $60-70 million range. They aren't jumping to $45 million in 2010 to keep the "best possible team" together just for the hell of it. They are still going to penny push the $35 million level until they can go big.

You can tell me whatever you want as long as you don't make believe you have some pipeline to the future. Whether we're talking about Uggla or any other high profile player, if they perform beyond their contracts, are an intregral part of putting a winning team on the field that sponsors and major corporation can get their arms around, he or they stay regardless of the price.

 

Not only do the Marlins have to win, they have to change the whole perception of the team from cheapskates with 500 fans in the stands to a winning team worthy of sizable investments by the biggest and most well known companies in the region, even nationally. The cheapest and easiest way to do that (given a player who is performing and in the spotlight) is to not ship out that player(s) as has happened so many times in the past.