On paper, Uggla for Cain is a no brainer, but how do we replace Dan's production?

 

You don't "replace" Dan Uggla... you play whoever's most ready of Coghlan/Bonerface and take the OBP gain from Chris or defensive gain from Bonerface and laugh at how good your pitching is

 

 

Mwahahahahahaha. Man, my pitching be real real good.

I don't agree with that at all. There is a difference between guys who have had a couple of years of experience at the major league level and guys who have never played before. We have a pretty good idea of what these pitchers can do and if things go according to plan, our pitching should be fine, especially now that they are back healthy...whereas we have NO idea what Coghlan/Bonifacio will do or how they will even remotely come close to replacing the production of Uggla. I understand the need to bring in Cain for insurance to solidify the rotation, but I'm not so sure it is worth the huge hit we take offensively

On paper, Uggla for Cain is a no brainer, but how do we replace Dan's production?

 

You don't "replace" Dan Uggla... you play whoever's most ready of Coghlan/Bonerface and take the OBP gain from Chris or defensive gain from Bonerface and laugh at how good your pitching is

 

 

Mwahahahahahaha. Man, my pitching be real real good.

 

Mystikol has it down pat already :thumbup

On paper, Uggla for Cain is a no brainer, but how do we replace Dan's production?

 

You don't "replace" Dan Uggla... you play whoever's most ready of Coghlan/Bonerface and take the OBP gain from Chris or defensive gain from Bonerface and laugh at how good your pitching is

 

 

Mwahahahahahaha. Man, my pitching be real real good.

 

Mystikol has it down pat already :thumbup

 

I been ballin' since post #1

That's how we do at the U

:notworthy

1) If I traded Uggla for Cain or JSanchez, I would feel fine putting Cantu at second base. Defense would continue to be less than stellar there, but offense would actually improve.

2) Still, I don't sell Annibal Sanchez short. If he has regained his arm strength, which seems to be the case, I expect him to have a better year than Cain. I believe that and am sticking to it right through opening day.

How can you feel unwanted when a team is going to pay you close to $5 million bucks to play baseball for them this season? If Uggla was unwanted, the Marlins would have traded him. Invest your $3.2 million worth of take home pay for this season alone, Dan, and you can live exceptionally well on it for the rest of your life.

I can see what he's getting at, but surely he knows the way the Marlins do business by now?

I don't know why you guys are talking about Cain, but Bumgarner and Aldersen make more sense for us on a payroll level if you want to talk about a hypothetical SF trade. Cain is going to get paid real soon. We need to get guys with minimum 2 club controlled years right now, as we have escalating salaries with Hanley, Johnson, Nolasco, Anibal, Miller, and half the bullpen. We can retain that group, with grooming cheap Maybin, Morrison, Coghlan, G. Sanchez, Cousins, Raynor, etc, around them, but adding any talent that is making more than the minimum is really going to screw with payroll. We are going to have to shed basically all of Uggla, Hermida, Cantu, Ross, Amezaga, and one of the SP or multiple RP, as is after 2009. Can't add money to next year.

 

We need to have guys we don't have to worry about until around 2012-2013. We need more Sean Wests that will develop, not a Matt Cain even if he is awesome.

Reading throught the thread i agree with PWG and Erick as getting Cain for Uggla and the trading Anibal for a catcher.

 

But then i read Marlins Lou's post and i began thinking.

 

Cain ia going to get a MAJOR Bonus by 09-10 and it really is something we can't afford without losing a sufficient amount of players.

 

On paper Uggla for Cain is a great deal for both teams and we could try to replace Uggla with higher OPS and more speed in CC/Bonerface but it really won't be enough production especially since they would be most likely in the 7th or 8th spots in the order(assuming Maybin hitting 1st and Baker hits 2nd).

 

At this point really anything can happen especially with our FO but hopefully we get lucky and resign Uggla and find us a catcher.

1) If I traded Uggla for Cain or JSanchez, I would feel fine putting Cantu at second base. Defense would continue to be less than stellar there, but offense would actually improve.

2) Still, I don't sell Annibal Sanchez short. If he has regained his arm strength, which seems to be the case, I expect him to have a better year than Cain. I believe that and am sticking to it right through opening day.

 

 

I would not trade Uggla for Sanchez. And Lou makes some good points as to maybe why not for Matt Cain.

From what I've heard, there is no way Cantu goes back to 2nd base.

I don't see them trading Bumgarner for Uggla. I think it's pretty clear at this point that we would have to add at least one other significant chip to that deal. Maybe Uggla+Cantu for Bumgarner after this season or something? Not sure exactly what'd be acceptable value.

Reading throught the thread i agree with PWG and Erick as getting Cain for Uggla and the trading Anibal for a catcher.

 

But then i read Marlins Lou's post and i began thinking.

 

Cain ia going to get a MAJOR Bonus by 09-10 and it really is something we can't afford without losing a sufficient amount of players.

 

On paper Uggla for Cain is a great deal for both teams and we could try to replace Uggla with higher OPS and more speed in CC/Bonerface but it really won't be enough production especially since they would be most likely in the 7th or 8th spots in the order(assuming Maybin hitting 1st and Baker hits 2nd).

 

At this point really anything can happen especially with our FO but hopefully we get lucky and resign Uggla and find us a catcher.

 

I'm confused as to who you agree with because you kinda contradicted yourself. First you said you agree with PWG and Erick, but then at the end (see bold) you started to agree with me...

 

:shrugs

 

And Lou, good luck trying to get the Giants to give us Bumgarner for Uggla. It'd be sweet, but very very unrealistic

Also, If we traded Uggla for Bumgarner, (again, not very likely at all), it would really diminish our hope for contending for the NL East crown this year. Isn't that what we're trying to do? Win now, while at the same time looking ahead to the future? Uggla for Bumgarner does absolutely nothing to the 2009 Marlins but make them worse. At least with Cain he could help us win NOW.

Also, If we traded Uggla for Bumgarner, (again, not very likely at all), it would really diminish our hope for contending for the NL East crown this year. Isn't that what we're trying to do? Win now, while at the same time looking ahead to the future? Uggla for Bumgarner does absolutely nothing to the 2009 Marlins but make them worse. At least with Cain he could help us win NOW.

First, I am not advocating trading Uggla now. That is a post 2009 (or trade deadline if we totally fall apart) deal. I agree Bumgarner is very unlikely, that is why I have my eyes on Aldersen as a centerpiece for Uggla next year. It's a perfect match. They have SP depth, need middle infielders like crazy, and have a deep system to poach another 1-2 good prospects in the Tucker/G. Sanchez/Coghlan vein.

Also, If we traded Uggla for Bumgarner, (again, not very likely at all), it would really diminish our hope for contending for the NL East crown this year. Isn't that what we're trying to do? Win now, while at the same time looking ahead to the future? Uggla for Bumgarner does absolutely nothing to the 2009 Marlins but make them worse. At least with Cain he could help us win NOW.

First, I am not advocating trading Uggla now. That is a post 2009 (or trade deadline if we totally fall apart) deal. I agree Bumgarner is very unlikely, that is why I have my eyes on Aldersen as a centerpiece for Uggla next year. It's a perfect match. They have SP depth, need middle infielders like crazy, and have a deep system to poach another 1-2 good prospects in the Tucker/G. Sanchez/Coghlan vein.

 

Oh ok, I didn't know you were talking post 2009. In that case, I agree with you 100%

Trading Uggla isn't going to happen. Not this season. Not unless the stadium deals fails or some other catastrophe. This franchise is all about contending this year and next in order to sell-out the stadium and at least 20,000 season tickets plus all those boxes. Lou's guarantees aside, this team is not going to get blown up over money, it wasn't this year and it won't next, and they'll spend what they need to spend to entice guys buying skyboxes to plunk down the big bucks - it's just another investment for the Marlins. If the team gets blown up and I agree with at least half the names on Lou's list, it will be over talent and not $.

 

Going cheap while you're trying to market 30,000 seats a night 81 times a year isn't going to happen.

 

As for Cain, I agree with Lou on that as well, he's a poster child for exactly the kind of player the Marlins don't want and to even bring up his name as a trade candidate because one story was written one time as speculation anyways is flat out ridiculous. Just what the Marlins need, ANOTHER high value pitcher going to arbitration, like we don't have enough of them already.

 

Here's how serious the Cain for Uggla talks were. One post from Chicago set of a prairie fire of speculation on the web and in the blogosphere, and in the end there was nothing to it except an out of town reporter looking to fill up his copy quota:

 

By Paul Moro [October 11, 2008 at 1:52pm CST]

 

The Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers mentions some names that the offensively-challenged San Francisco Giants are considering acquiring this off-season, specifically, Dan Uggla, Paul Konerko, and Derrek Lee. He writes:

 

San Francisco, desperate for a proven bat, is expected to pursue one-dimensional second baseman Dan Uggla. The Giants also may kick the tires on first baseman Paul Konerko of the White Sox and Derrek Lee of the Cubs, both of whom have full no-trade clauses. They probably would have to deal a young pitcher?Jonathan Sanchez or Matt Cain.

 

 

edit: Oops, forgot the link, the full read is really quite amusing:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/giants-discussi.html

Trading Uggla isn't going to happen. Not this season. Not unless the stadium deals fails or some other catastrophe. This franchise is all about contending this year and next in order to sell-out the stadium and at least 20,000 season tickets plus all those boxes. Lou's guarantees aside, this team is not going to get blown up over money, it wasn't this year and it won't next, and they'll spend what they need to spend to entice guys buying skyboxes to plunk down the big bucks - it's just another investment for the Marlins. If the team gets blown up and I agree with at least half the names on Lou's list, it will be over talent and not $$$.

Let's break it down to come to an accord.

 

Let's assume everyone does great in 2009 (this is like, Cantu/Hermida both over .800 OPS, the starters getting to 170+ innings, all the relievers under 4 eras, etc). Here is a realistic salary estimation for 2010. I take it you just trust me on the arbitration comparables on these.

 

C John Baker $420,000

1B G. Sanchez $410,000

2B Dan Uggla $9,000,000

3B Jorge Cantu $5,500,000

SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

LF Jeremy Hermida $5,000,000

CF Cameron Maybin $410,000

RF Cody Ross $5,000,000

 

B Dallas McPherson $1,500,000

B Wes Helms $950,000

B Alfredo Amezaga $2,000,000

B Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

B Mike Rabelo $420,000

 

SP Josh Johnson $3,750,000

SP Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

SP Chris Volstad $410,000

SP Andrew Miller $1,750,000

SP Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000

 

RP Matt Lindstrom $2,500,000

RP Leo Nunez $1,250,000

RP Scott Proctor $3,000,000

RP Logan Kensing $1,000,000

RP Reynel Pinto $1,000,000

RP Cruz/Badenhop $410,000

RP Meyer/Kroenke $410,000

 

$60,000,000

 

Yea, literally. The team's general cost shoots up that much from the $33-34ish range we are in 2009, to keeping together the exact 25 man roster in 2010.

 

So let's do the first round of cuts. We're keeping Hanley, Helms (our two contracts), all the club controlled players, let's keep the starting rotation, and let's add Tucker, Ceda, Morrison, Raynor, Coghlan, and Cousins, which I personally think is really really reasonable compared to their player development.

 

John Baker $420,000

G. Sanchez $410,000

Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

Logan Morrison $400,000

Cameron Maybin $410,000

Scott Cousins $400,000

 

John Raynor $400,000

Wes Helms $950,000

Chris Coghlan $400,000

Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

Mike Rabelo $420,000

 

Josh Johnson $3,750,000

Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

Chris Volstad $410,000

Andrew Miller $1,750,000

Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000

 

Tucker $410,000

Ceda $410,000

Cruz/Badenhop $410,000

Meyer/Kroenke $410,000

 

$25,670,000 < - Missing 1 middle infielder (bench/starter depending on what you think of Coghlan), Starting 3B, and 3 RP. Not so bad. Currently on this roster is 5 OF (Maybin, Cousins, Raynor, Morrison, Bonifacio), so we don't need any outfielders added. Goodbye Cody and Hermida. We are three deep at 1B (Gaby, Logan, Helms), so nothing there. We have 3B depth with Helms, Coghlan, and Bonifacio, so we're going to need to keep Cantu or Dallas here easily. SP wise we're great, and West is in AAA as the '6th' starter, and we have a very green bullpen.

 

Knowing the Marlins, we're going to keep at least two of the RP from Lindstrom, Nunez, Kensing, Pinto, and Tank (not shown above, but should be in line for a Kensing contract for 2010 as he will be arb eligible). I'm going to add in Lindstrom and Nunez, who arguably should be the best two going forward. We'll then add in say Thompson (the name isn't what really matters here for the CC guys, it's the price), as the 2nd left in the pen.

 

John Baker $420,000

G. Sanchez $410,000

Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

Logan Morrison $400,000

Cameron Maybin $410,000

Scott Cousins $400,000

 

John Raynor $400,000

Wes Helms $950,000

Chris Coghlan $400,000

Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

Mike Rabelo $420,000

 

Josh Johnson $3,750,000

Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

Chris Volstad $410,000

Andrew Miller $1,750,000

Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000

 

Matt Lindstrom $2,500,000

Leo Nunez $1,250,000

Tucker $410,000

Ceda $410,000

Cruz/Badenhop $410,000

Meyer/Kroenke $410,000

Thompson $400,000

 

$29,820,000 < - Starting 3B and another middle infielder

 

Currently not on payroll is this, which add up to $33 million and change.

 

Dan Uggla $9,000,000

Jorge Cantu $5,500,000

Jeremy Hermida $5,000,000

Cody Ross $5,000,000

Dallas McPherson $1,500,000

Alfredo Amezaga $2,000,000

Scott Proctor $3,000,000 (he will be a FA, this is a bit unfair I know, but still)

Logan Kensing $1,000,000

Reynel Pinto $1,000,000

Taylor Tankeresly $750,000

 

So I mean, who fits the starting 3B, or another middle infielder, mold here?

 

Dan Uggla $9,000,000

Jorge Cantu $5,500,000

Dallas McPherson $1,500,000

Alfredo Amezaga $2,000,000

 

So the question is, where do you have payroll going? It it's sub $35 million, there is no way we can afford Uggla unless we get rid of a SP, and Lindstrom, and then we'll have absolutely nothing at 3B (unless you play Uggla at 3B, and Coghlan at 2B, or vice versa, but that's another story and obviously brings up not fielding the best possible lineup debate). If it's just around $35, we could keep Cantu another year, and then just go and find another middle infielder to help Bonifacio as the do everything guy.

 

If it's $40, we can probably sneak Uggla and McPherson on the roster, and start 2010 like this:

 

C - Baker (Rabelo) - (we're going to assume Rabelo is replaced by a CC option. This is just for price here)

1B - G. Sanchez (Morrison, Helms)

2B - Uggla (Coghlan, Bonifacio)

SS - Hanley (Bonifacio)

3B - McPherson (Coghlan, Helms)

LF - Morrison (Raynor, Cousins)

CF - Maybin (Cousins, Raynor)

RF - Cousins (Raynor, Bonifacio)

B - Rabelo, Helms, Coghlan, Bonifacio, Raynor

SP - Johnson, Nolasco, Volstad, A. Miller, Anibal

RP - Lindstrom, Nunez, Tucker, Ceda, Cruz, Thompson, Kroenke

 

$40,320,000 < rough estimate

 

AAA - West, Vanden Hurk, Trahern, Leroux, Winters, G. Taylor, Wood

AA - Dominguez, Stanton

 

Trades to replenish system - Hermida, Ross, Cantu, Amezaga, Kensing, Pinto, and Tank

 

---

 

Personally, I suspect they keep payroll at the $35 level and will get such a good offer for Uggla they will go for it, make Coghlan the 2B, keep McPherson at 3B in 2010, and get a cheap 2nd middle infielder. That team is more in line with 2009 payroll constraints. I really don't think they push payroll up until the stadium, and in terms of contending, Uggla wouldn't make or break the team. It would still come down to the starting pitching. Of course this is in general hypothetical terms and some players could tank which effects their arbitration and our willingness to keep them, or severe regression in the minor leagues, but this serves as a footnote to all these longterm contract posts of how fast this team goes up in price. We can't afford this team past this year, and we're going to have to cut huge corners and hope for our minor leaguers to turn into legitimate options to remain in a relative contending state. As I've said before, I'm very optimistic on most of our minor league hitters coming up (and relievers) so I don't think this will be that huge of a problem.

 

Even longer, 2011 - Start thinking $6+ million for Nolasco, Johnson, $4+ for Anibal, Volstad, Hanley jumps to $11,000,000, and just like that your SS and starting 5 (Volstad still CC), is approaching $32 million (minimum) just by themselves. That's 6/25 on the 25 man roster at our 2009 salary level. We can't afford to dish out longterm deals to Uggla, or other guys, right now, when we have this looming surge down the road.

 

We need payroll flexibility right now to figure out who we want to keep. This is my point. We're in great shape, we just have to wait and see. I'm tired of all this Uggla whining.

I would love to see him stay but we all know that's not going to happen.

He rose his stock to quickly to stay in Florida.

Trading Uggla isn't going to happen. Not this season. Not unless the stadium deals fails or some other catastrophe. This franchise is all about contending this year and next in order to sell-out the stadium and at least 20,000 season tickets plus all those boxes. Lou's guarantees aside, this team is not going to get blown up over money, it wasn't this year and it won't next, and they'll spend what they need to spend to entice guys buying skyboxes to plunk down the big bucks - it's just another investment for the Marlins. If the team gets blown up and I agree with at least half the names on Lou's list, it will be over talent and not $$.

Let's break it down to come to an accord.

 

Let's assume everyone does great in 2009 (this is like, Cantu/Hermida both over .800 OPS, the starters getting to 170+ innings, all the relievers under 4 eras, etc). Here is a realistic salary estimation for 2010. I take it you just trust me on the arbitration comparables on these.

 

C John Baker $420,000

1B G. Sanchez $410,000

2B Dan Uggla $9,000,000

3B Jorge Cantu $5,500,000

SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

LF Jeremy Hermida $5,000,000

CF Cameron Maybin $410,000

RF Cody Ross $5,000,000

 

B Dallas McPherson $1,500,000

B Wes Helms $950,000

B Alfredo Amezaga $2,000,000

B Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

B Mike Rabelo $420,000

 

SP Josh Johnson $3,750,000

SP Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

SP Chris Volstad $410,000

SP Andrew Miller $1,750,000

SP Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000

 

RP Matt Lindstrom $2,500,000

RP Leo Nunez $1,250,000

RP Scott Proctor $3,000,000

RP Logan Kensing $1,000,000

RP Reynel Pinto $1,000,000

RP Cruz/Badenhop $410,000

RP Meyer/Kroenke $410,000

 

$60,000,000

 

Yea, literally. The team's general cost shoots up that much from the $33-34ish range we are in 2009, to keeping together the exact 25 man roster in 2010.

 

So let's do the first round of cuts. We're keeping Hanley, Helms (our two contracts), all the club controlled players, let's keep the starting rotation, and let's add Tucker, Ceda, Morrison, Raynor, Coghlan, and Cousins, which I personally think is really really reasonable compared to their player development.

 

John Baker $420,000

G. Sanchez $410,000

Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

Logan Morrison $400,000

Cameron Maybin $410,000

Scott Cousins $400,000

 

John Raynor $400,000

Wes Helms $950,000

Chris Coghlan $400,000

Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

Mike Rabelo $420,000

 

Josh Johnson $3,750,000

Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

Chris Volstad $410,000

Andrew Miller $1,750,000

Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000

 

Tucker $410,000

Ceda $410,000

Cruz/Badenhop $410,000

Meyer/Kroenke $410,000

 

$25,670,000 < - Missing 1 middle infielder (bench/starter depending on what you think of Coghlan), Starting 3B, and 3 RP. Not so bad. Currently on this roster is 5 OF (Maybin, Cousins, Raynor, Morrison, Bonifacio), so we don't need any outfielders added. Goodbye Cody and Hermida. We are three deep at 1B (Gaby, Logan, Helms), so nothing there. We have 3B depth with Helms, Coghlan, and Bonifacio, so we're going to need to keep Cantu or Dallas here easily. SP wise we're great, and West is in AAA as the '6th' starter, and we have a very green bullpen.

 

Knowing the Marlins, we're going to keep at least two of the RP from Lindstrom, Nunez, Kensing, Pinto, and Tank (not shown above, but should be in line for a Kensing contract for 2010 as he will be arb eligible). I'm going to add in Lindstrom and Nunez, who arguably should be the best two going forward. We'll then add in say Thompson (the name isn't what really matters here for the CC guys, it's the price), as the 2nd left in the pen.

 

John Baker $420,000

G. Sanchez $410,000

Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

Logan Morrison $400,000

Cameron Maybin $410,000

Scott Cousins $400,000

 

John Raynor $400,000

Wes Helms $950,000

Chris Coghlan $400,000

Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

Mike Rabelo $420,000

 

Josh Johnson $3,750,000

Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

Chris Volstad $410,000

Andrew Miller $1,750,000

Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000

 

Matt Lindstrom $2,500,000

Leo Nunez $1,250,000

Tucker $410,000

Ceda $410,000

Cruz/Badenhop $410,000

Meyer/Kroenke $410,000

Thompson $400,000

 

$29,820,000 < - Starting 3B and another middle infielder

 

Currently not on payroll is this, which add up to $33 million and change.

 

Dan Uggla $9,000,000

Jorge Cantu $5,500,000

Jeremy Hermida $5,000,000

Cody Ross $5,000,000

Dallas McPherson $1,500,000

Alfredo Amezaga $2,000,000

Scott Proctor $3,000,000 (he will be a FA, this is a bit unfair I know, but still)

Logan Kensing $1,000,000

Reynel Pinto $1,000,000

Taylor Tankeresly $750,000

 

So I mean, who fits the starting 3B, or another middle infielder, mold here?

 

Dan Uggla $9,000,000

Jorge Cantu $5,500,000

Dallas McPherson $1,500,000

Alfredo Amezaga $2,000,000

 

So the question is, where do you have payroll going? It it's sub $35 million, there is no way we can afford Uggla unless we get rid of a SP, and Lindstrom, and then we'll have absolutely nothing at 3B (unless you play Uggla at 3B, and Coghlan at 2B, or vice versa, but that's another story and obviously brings up not fielding the best possible lineup debate). If it's just around $35, we could keep Cantu another year, and then just go and find another middle infielder to help Bonifacio as the do everything guy.

 

If it's $40, we can probably sneak Uggla and McPherson on the roster, and start 2010 like this:

 

C - Baker (Rabelo) - (we're going to assume Rabelo is replaced by a CC option. This is just for price here)

1B - G. Sanchez (Morrison, Helms)

2B - Uggla (Coghlan, Bonifacio)

SS - Hanley (Bonifacio)

3B - McPherson (Coghlan, Helms)

LF - Morrison (Raynor, Cousins)

CF - Maybin (Cousins, Raynor)

RF - Cousins (Raynor, Bonifacio)

B - Rabelo, Helms, Coghlan, Bonifacio, Raynor

SP - Johnson, Nolasco, Volstad, A. Miller, Anibal

RP - Lindstrom, Nunez, Tucker, Ceda, Cruz, Thompson, Kroenke

 

$40,320,000 < rough estimate

 

AAA - West, Vanden Hurk, Trahern, Leroux, Winters, G. Taylor, Wood

AA - Dominguez, Stanton

 

Trades to replenish system - Hermida, Ross, Cantu, Amezaga, Kensing, Pinto, and Tank

 

---

 

Personally, I suspect they keep payroll at the $35 level and will get such a good offer for Uggla they will go for it, make Coghlan the 2B, keep McPherson at 3B in 2010, and get a cheap 2nd middle infielder. That team is more in line with 2009 payroll constraints. I really don't think they push payroll up until the stadium, and in terms of contending, Uggla wouldn't make or break the team. It would still come down to the starting pitching. Of course this is in general hypothetical terms and some players could tank which effects their arbitration and our willingness to keep them, or severe regression in the minor leagues, but this serves as a footnote to all these longterm contract posts of how fast this team goes up in price. We can't afford this team past this year, and we're going to have to cut huge corners and hope for our minor leaguers to turn into legitimate options to remain in a relative contending state. As I've said before, I'm very optimistic on most of our minor league hitters coming up (and relievers) so I don't think this will be that huge of a problem.

 

Even longer, 2011 - Start thinking $6+ million for Nolasco, Johnson, $4+ for Anibal, Volstad, Hanley jumps to $11,000,000, and just like that your SS and starting 5 (Volstad still CC), is approaching $32 million (minimum) just by themselves. That's 6/25 on the 25 man roster at our 2009 salary level. We can't afford to dish out longterm deals to Uggla, or other guys, right now, when we have this looming surge down the road.

 

We need payroll flexibility right now to figure out who we want to keep. This is my point. We're in great shape, we just have to wait and see. I'm tired of all this Uggla whining.

 

Nicely done. It all makes sense to me.

Trading Uggla isn't going to happen. Not this season. Not unless the stadium deals fails or some other catastrophe. This franchise is all about contending this year and next in order to sell-out the stadium and at least 20,000 season tickets plus all those boxes. Lou's guarantees aside, this team is not going to get blown up over money, it wasn't this year and it won't next, and they'll spend what they need to spend to entice guys buying skyboxes to plunk down the big bucks - it's just another investment for the Marlins. If the team gets blown up and I agree with at least half the names on Lou's list, it will be over talent and not $$$.

Let's break it down to come to an accord.

 

Let's assume everyone does great in 2009 (this is like, Cantu/Hermida both over .800 OPS, the starters getting to 170+ innings, all the relievers under 4 eras, etc). Here is a realistic salary estimation for 2010. I take it you just trust me on the arbitration comparables on these.

 

C John Baker $420,000

1B G. Sanchez $410,000

2B Dan Uggla $9,000,000

3B Jorge Cantu $5,500,000

SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

LF Jeremy Hermida $5,000,000

CF Cameron Maybin $410,000

RF Cody Ross $5,000,000

 

B Dallas McPherson $1,500,000

B Wes Helms $950,000

B Alfredo Amezaga $2,000,000

B Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

B Mike Rabelo $420,000

 

SP Josh Johnson $3,750,000

SP Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

SP Chris Volstad $410,000

SP Andrew Miller $1,750,000

SP Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000

 

RP Matt Lindstrom $2,500,000

RP Leo Nunez $1,250,000

RP Scott Proctor $3,000,000

RP Logan Kensing $1,000,000

RP Reynel Pinto $1,000,000

RP Cruz/Badenhop $410,000

RP Meyer/Kroenke $410,000

 

$60,000,000

 

Yea, literally. The team's general cost shoots up that much from the $33-34ish range we are in 2009, to keeping together the exact 25 man roster in 2010.

 

So let's do the first round of cuts. We're keeping Hanley, Helms (our two contracts), all the club controlled players, let's keep the starting rotation, and let's add Tucker, Ceda, Morrison, Raynor, Coghlan, and Cousins, which I personally think is really really reasonable compared to their player development.

 

John Baker $420,000

G. Sanchez $410,000

Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

Logan Morrison $400,000

Cameron Maybin $410,000

Scott Cousins $400,000

 

John Raynor $400,000

Wes Helms $950,000

Chris Coghlan $400,000

Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

Mike Rabelo $420,000

 

Josh Johnson $3,750,000

Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

Chris Volstad $410,000

Andrew Miller $1,750,000

Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000

 

Tucker $410,000

Ceda $410,000

Cruz/Badenhop $410,000

Meyer/Kroenke $410,000

 

$25,670,000 < - Missing 1 middle infielder (bench/starter depending on what you think of Coghlan), Starting 3B, and 3 RP. Not so bad. Currently on this roster is 5 OF (Maybin, Cousins, Raynor, Morrison, Bonifacio), so we don't need any outfielders added. Goodbye Cody and Hermida. We are three deep at 1B (Gaby, Logan, Helms), so nothing there. We have 3B depth with Helms, Coghlan, and Bonifacio, so we're going to need to keep Cantu or Dallas here easily. SP wise we're great, and West is in AAA as the '6th' starter, and we have a very green bullpen.

 

Knowing the Marlins, we're going to keep at least two of the RP from Lindstrom, Nunez, Kensing, Pinto, and Tank (not shown above, but should be in line for a Kensing contract for 2010 as he will be arb eligible). I'm going to add in Lindstrom and Nunez, who arguably should be the best two going forward. We'll then add in say Thompson (the name isn't what really matters here for the CC guys, it's the price), as the 2nd left in the pen.

 

John Baker $420,000

G. Sanchez $410,000

Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000

Logan Morrison $400,000

Cameron Maybin $410,000

Scott Cousins $400,000

 

John Raynor $400,000

Wes Helms $950,000

Chris Coghlan $400,000

Emilio Bonifacio $410,000

Mike Rabelo $420,000

 

Josh Johnson $3,750,000

Ricky Nolasco $4,500,000

Chris Volstad $410,000

Andrew Miller $1,750,000

Anibal Sanchez $2,000,000

 

Matt Lindstrom $2,500,000

Leo Nunez $1,250,000

Tucker $410,000

Ceda $410,000

Cruz/Badenhop $410,000

Meyer/Kroenke $410,000

Thompson $400,000

 

$29,820,000 < - Starting 3B and another middle infielder

 

Currently not on payroll is this, which add up to $33 million and change.

 

Dan Uggla $9,000,000

Jorge Cantu $5,500,000

Jeremy Hermida $5,000,000

Cody Ross $5,000,000

Dallas McPherson $1,500,000

Alfredo Amezaga $2,000,000

Scott Proctor $3,000,000 (he will be a FA, this is a bit unfair I know, but still)

Logan Kensing $1,000,000

Reynel Pinto $1,000,000

Taylor Tankeresly $750,000

 

So I mean, who fits the starting 3B, or another middle infielder, mold here?

 

Dan Uggla $9,000,000

Jorge Cantu $5,500,000

Dallas McPherson $1,500,000

Alfredo Amezaga $2,000,000

 

So the question is, where do you have payroll going? It it's sub $35 million, there is no way we can afford Uggla unless we get rid of a SP, and Lindstrom, and then we'll have absolutely nothing at 3B (unless you play Uggla at 3B, and Coghlan at 2B, or vice versa, but that's another story and obviously brings up not fielding the best possible lineup debate). If it's just around $35, we could keep Cantu another year, and then just go and find another middle infielder to help Bonifacio as the do everything guy.

 

If it's $40, we can probably sneak Uggla and McPherson on the roster, and start 2010 like this:

 

C - Baker (Rabelo) - (we're going to assume Rabelo is replaced by a CC option. This is just for price here)

1B - G. Sanchez (Morrison, Helms)

2B - Uggla (Coghlan, Bonifacio)

SS - Hanley (Bonifacio)

3B - McPherson (Coghlan, Helms)

LF - Morrison (Raynor, Cousins)

CF - Maybin (Cousins, Raynor)

RF - Cousins (Raynor, Bonifacio)

B - Rabelo, Helms, Coghlan, Bonifacio, Raynor

SP - Johnson, Nolasco, Volstad, A. Miller, Anibal

RP - Lindstrom, Nunez, Tucker, Ceda, Cruz, Thompson, Kroenke

 

$40,320,000 < rough estimate

 

AAA - West, Vanden Hurk, Trahern, Leroux, Winters, G. Taylor, Wood

AA - Dominguez, Stanton

 

Trades to replenish system - Hermida, Ross, Cantu, Amezaga, Kensing, Pinto, and Tank

 

---

 

Personally, I suspect they keep payroll at the $35 level and will get such a good offer for Uggla they will go for it, make Coghlan the 2B, keep McPherson at 3B in 2010, and get a cheap 2nd middle infielder. That team is more in line with 2009 payroll constraints. I really don't think they push payroll up until the stadium, and in terms of contending, Uggla wouldn't make or break the team. It would still come down to the starting pitching. Of course this is in general hypothetical terms and some players could tank which effects their arbitration and our willingness to keep them, or severe regression in the minor leagues, but this serves as a footnote to all these longterm contract posts of how fast this team goes up in price. We can't afford this team past this year, and we're going to have to cut huge corners and hope for our minor leaguers to turn into legitimate options to remain in a relative contending state. As I've said before, I'm very optimistic on most of our minor league hitters coming up (and relievers) so I don't think this will be that huge of a problem.

 

Even longer, 2011 - Start thinking $6+ million for Nolasco, Johnson, $4+ for Anibal, Volstad, Hanley jumps to $11,000,000, and just like that your SS and starting 5 (Volstad still CC), is approaching $32 million (minimum) just by themselves. That's 6/25 on the 25 man roster at our 2009 salary level. We can't afford to dish out longterm deals to Uggla, or other guys, right now, when we have this looming surge down the road.

 

We need payroll flexibility right now to figure out who we want to keep. This is my point. We're in great shape, we just have to wait and see. I'm tired of all this Uggla whining.

 

 

Boohoo. That pretty much ended the thread. Lou explained it all, in one post. Post of the year?

Boohoo. That pretty much ended the thread. Lou explained it all, in one post. Post of the year?

 

:thumbup The only thing is he's done this a few times now, and they've all been awesome. I'm not sure why this one in particular stick out (although it did effectively end an entire discussion), but certainly any one of these posts can be up there.

So, if Dan's so in luv with SoFla, let HIM approach mangement with a sweet deal.

 

Say, 3 / $10MM.

 

Would Beinfest/Hill bite?

On paper, Uggla for Cain is a no brainer, but how do we replace Dan's production?

 

 

U replace him w/ ...... Bonifacio??? :blink:

So, if Dan's so in luv with SoFla, let HIM approach mangement with a sweet deal.

 

Say, 3 / $10MM.

 

Would Beinfest/Hill bite?

 

Why would he do that when he could get $5.5m this year alone?

Luv makes you do crazy things

 

$10MM is a lot of loot

 

One injury and the future $$$ = 0

 

Maybe he wants to pork out and lay back (see Penney)

And since no one is making the counter-argument, I'll do that to:

 

 

But Lou, we can always buy out a player and he still retains his trade value with a beneficial contract.

 

 

Then I say, that's true. But the caveat is the player must perform. But, let's say we did this with Hermida, and we get a repeat of 2008. No one is going to then take him on for a $4 million (or whatever), for a low 700 OPS after two years. Or, Uggla reverts to .240/.320/.450 and is whiffing 180 times a year. No one's taking that for $7 million (or whatever) a year. In a normal franchise that can handle at least a $60 million payroll, we can take that risk. Still useful players, but just overpaid. The Marlins can't afford this risk right now, with an entire team pending 1st and 2nd year arbitration, and some coming real soon after that. The juice isn't worth the squeeze right now unless we're for sure getting a player that produces. The jury is out on all of these guys right now, plus the Marlins missed the boat post 2006-2006 to nab these guys to really cheap deals. Now, we have to wait for Volstad, Maybin, Miller, etc, to establish themselves and we'll have another chance of buyouts after the 2009 season.

 

Right now the correct course is - no nothing. Wait and see what happens in 2009, and then trade away the final 6-7 pieces to complete the picture for the new stadium.