The lesser perception of Webb probably has to do with the fact that relief pitching is situational and Cishek has been better in high-leverage situations.

 

Webb has been rather mediocre with the Marlins, to be honest.

A 4.01 ERA/1.3+ WHIP is probably not the guy who should be pitching 2 high-leverage innings in a game when there are better options available.

 

He's been better than that ERA and WHIP if you treat the Toronto outing as an outlier, which you should. I'm not saying ignore it because it was an awful outing, but at least look at this season's total figures with some caution.

 

And if Webb isn't good enough, who do you use? I agree that Cishek is the better arm, but who else?

 

Also, Webb has a .544 OPS against in "high leverage" situations this year and .584 OPS in "close and late." He's not really that bad in high leverage situations. If he were, that inherited runner score rate would be much worse than Cishek's when he's really been about the same.

You are putting this on a guy that reached twice and scored twice? Just because of an error that nobody scored off of?

 

You clearly didn't watch the game Zambrano gave up 3 ER not 5. Hanley lost us this game, and the worst reliever in the game.

 

You mean the 2 runs after Dobbs' error on the pickoff?

The lesser perception of Webb probably has to do with the fact that relief pitching is situational and Cishek has been better in high-leverage situations.

 

Webb has been rather mediocre with the Marlins, to be honest.

A 4.01 ERA/1.3+ WHIP is probably not the guy who should be pitching 2 high-leverage innings in a game when there are better options available.

 

He's been better than that ERA and WHIP if you treat the Toronto outing as an outlier, which you should. I'm not saying ignore it because it was an awful outing, but at least look at this season's total figures with some caution.

 

And if Webb isn't good enough, who do you use? I agree that Cishek is the better arm, but who else?

 

Also, Webb has a .544 OPS against in "high leverage" situations this year and .584 OPS in "close and late." He's not really that bad in high leverage situations. If he were, that inherited runner score rate would be much worse than Cishek's when he's really been about the same.

 

 

He's also not used in high leverage situations all that much. The only reliever with a lesser gmLI than Webb is Chad Gaudin.

I also think the way pitchers are pitching should be considered. Ryan Webb is rather fortunate that his results aren't worse considering how hard he's been hit for months now.

 

Cishek was definitely available (thus, not sure why it's a "who else" argument) and Mike Dunn (not sure if he was available because he's pitched a lot lately) has been pitching a lot better lately for whatever reason.

 

I do agree that Webb is currently our 2nd best right-handed middle reliever with Mujica injured, for what it's worth.

Well, in that case, what he's saying can be statistically proven.

 

Webb's ERA last year, for example, was misleading. I don't know the inherited runner #'s (although I do recall he was one of our worst last year in the category...rather awful), but he ended up with a negative win probability and just 12 shutdowns/11 meltdowns (rather terrible ratio).

 

This year, he's been getting hit extremely hard to the tune of a ~29 LD%. At this point, I don't think the confidence in him should be all that high (although there really aren't many options, unfortunately).

 

 

Thanks Eric for pulling something up on it. I was wondering if there were stats to figure inherited runners allowed.

Did he pull up stats on it? :lol

 

Maybe not directly to the inherited runners but did confirm what I was saying could be statistically proven. He might not have provided the stats but he provided his analysis of the stats that related to the to the subject at hand rather than his opinion passed on his visual observation which was all I was doing.

Well, in that case, what he's saying can be statistically proven.

 

Webb's ERA last year, for example, was misleading. I don't know the inherited runner #'s (although I do recall he was one of our worst last year in the category...rather awful), but he ended up with a negative win probability and just 12 shutdowns/11 meltdowns (rather terrible ratio).

 

This year, he's been getting hit extremely hard to the tune of a ~29 LD%. At this point, I don't think the confidence in him should be all that high (although there really aren't many options, unfortunately).

 

 

Thanks Eric for pulling something up on it. I was wondering if there were stats to figure inherited runners allowed.

Did he pull up stats on it? :lol

 

Maybe not directly to the inherited runners but did confirm what I was saying could be statistically proven. He might not have provided the stats but he provided his analysis of the stats that related to the to the subject at hand rather than his opinion passed on his visual observation which was all I was doing.

I don't think what you were saying has been statistically verified after looking at the actual inherited runner score rates, which I posted here.

Well, in that case, what he's saying can be statistically proven.

 

Webb's ERA last year, for example, was misleading. I don't know the inherited runner #'s (although I do recall he was one of our worst last year in the category...rather awful), but he ended up with a negative win probability and just 12 shutdowns/11 meltdowns (rather terrible ratio).

 

This year, he's been getting hit extremely hard to the tune of a ~29 LD%. At this point, I don't think the confidence in him should be all that high (although there really aren't many options, unfortunately).

 

 

Thanks Eric for pulling something up on it. I was wondering if there were stats to figure inherited runners allowed.

Did he pull up stats on it? :lol

 

Maybe not directly to the inherited runners but did confirm what I was saying could be statistically proven. He might not have provided the stats but he provided his analysis of the stats that related to the to the subject at hand rather than his opinion passed on his visual observation which was all I was doing.

I don't think what you were saying has been statistically verified after looking at the actual inherited runner score rates, which I posted here.

 

It wasn't. Where did you find the inherited runner #'s? Baseball-reference?

The lesser perception of Webb probably has to do with the fact that relief pitching is situational and Cishek has been better in high-leverage situations.

 

Webb has been rather mediocre with the Marlins, to be honest.

A 4.01 ERA/1.3+ WHIP is probably not the guy who should be pitching 2 high-leverage innings in a game when there are better options available.

 

He's been better than that ERA and WHIP if you treat the Toronto outing as an outlier, which you should. I'm not saying ignore it because it was an awful outing, but at least look at this season's total figures with some caution.

 

And if Webb isn't good enough, who do you use? I agree that Cishek is the better arm, but who else?

 

Also, Webb has a .544 OPS against in "high leverage" situations this year and .584 OPS in "close and late." He's not really that bad in high leverage situations. If he were, that inherited runner score rate would be much worse than Cishek's when he's really been about the same.

 

 

He's also not used in high leverage situations all that much. The only reliever with a lesser gmLI than Webb is Chad Gaudin.

I also think the way pitchers are pitching should be considered. Ryan Webb is rather fortunate that his results aren't worse considering how hard he's been hit for months now.

 

Cishek was definitely available (thus, not sure why it's a "who else" argument) and Mike Dunn (not sure if he was available because he's pitched a lot lately) has been pitching a lot better lately for whatever reason.

 

I do agree that Webb is currently our 2nd best right-handed middle reliever with Mujica injured, for what it's worth.

He was used in more higher leverage situations last season and did reasonably well. I don't think it's fair to say he shouldn't be used in those situations just because Ozzie's uses him differently.

 

His LD% rate will come down. He had 4 LDs attributed to him in that Toronto outing alone. Don't forget that he also has the best walk rate out of all of the relievers. Cishek for how good he's been, still has an alarming walk rate of 4.8.

 

The reason why it's a "who else?" question is because it was a tied game situation in the 8th inning. I don't necessarily believe in saving arms, but under the circumstances I think it's a justifiable move to have Webb work the second inning, which he is fully capable of doing, and prolonging the need to use Dunn, Gaudin, Bell, or LeBlanc. It's also a little ridiculous to criticize Ozzie for sending Webb out there when there was only one arm available as a better alternative. You are making it sound like he was using Gaudin for an extra inning when there was a full pen of fresh arms available.

Well, in that case, what he's saying can be statistically proven.

 

Webb's ERA last year, for example, was misleading. I don't know the inherited runner #'s (although I do recall he was one of our worst last year in the category...rather awful), but he ended up with a negative win probability and just 12 shutdowns/11 meltdowns (rather terrible ratio).

 

This year, he's been getting hit extremely hard to the tune of a ~29 LD%. At this point, I don't think the confidence in him should be all that high (although there really aren't many options, unfortunately).

 

 

Thanks Eric for pulling something up on it. I was wondering if there were stats to figure inherited runners allowed.

Did he pull up stats on it? :lol

 

Maybe not directly to the inherited runners but did confirm what I was saying could be statistically proven. He might not have provided the stats but he provided his analysis of the stats that related to the to the subject at hand rather than his opinion passed on his visual observation which was all I was doing.

I don't think what you were saying has been statistically verified after looking at the actual inherited runner score rates, which I posted here.

 

I already said that "Maybe not directly to the inherited runners but did confirm what I was saying could be statistically proven"

 

So he didn't post anything specific about his inherited run rate which I would still like to see. You two guys are way better at the stats and finding them than I am.

It wasn't. Where did you find the inherited runner #'s? Baseball-reference?

 

Yeah. On Webb's page go to the expanded pitching stats and you should find the reliever performance section. It's in there.

 

Previously when I said that I didn't believe he allowed any inherited runners to score, I had mistakenly read the wrong column.

I already said that "Maybe not directly to the inherited runners but did confirm what I was saying could be statistically proven"

 

So he didn't post anything specific about his inherited run rate which I would still like to see. You two guys are way better at the stats and finding them than I am.

 

Perhaps there is a miscommunication here, but I don't think I've ever said there wasn't a stat that tallied inherited runners scored. I even tried to use it when you asked for it, but I simply reported the wrong number by mistake.

I'm not sure where you're getting your high-leverage stats, but fangraphs has Webb being rather awful in 10.1 innings of high-leverage work last year.

 

I also think it's a bit ironic that you think Webb's LD% will automatically come down when you were so skeptical about Josh Johnson earlier in the year. Webb is fortunate to have the .BABIP he has considering his LD% has been north of 30 in consecutive months now.

 

I don't blame Ozzie at all for using him in mostly low-leverage situations considering the way he's pitched. He's been hit extremely hard and has only regressed as the year has gone on. Webb, a groundball pitcher, had a GB rate of 36 in the month of June.

 

 

As for Cishek, the walk #'s are a bit misleading. His unintentional walk rate, while not great, is a much better 3.48. He's also the opposite of Webb in the sense that the contact off of him is rather weak and he also strikes out more hitters.

 

 

I see your point now about the game last night, I guess. If we would've taken the lead in the top half of the inning, I guess we would've seen Cishek in the 8th/Bell in the 9th.

I already said that "Maybe not directly to the inherited runners but did confirm what I was saying could be statistically proven"

 

So he didn't post anything specific about his inherited run rate which I would still like to see. You two guys are way better at the stats and finding them than I am.

 

Perhaps there is a miscommunication here, but I don't think I've ever said there wasn't a stat that tallied inherited runners scored. I even tried to use it when you asked for it, but I simply reported the wrong number by mistake.

 

Must have been miscommunication then. You guys are the good ones when it comes to stats. I just follow along as best i can.

The leverage stats can be found under the player splits. Webb's OPS against numbers were lower (.651 ) last year than Cishek's this year (.679). And I already showed that their inherited runner rates have been pretty much the same over the last 2 seasons.

 

And you are completely misconstruing what I said about Johnson. My point was that the batted ball data indicated to me that he wasn't just a victim of bad luck over that period. I never claimed that the rate was going to be sustainable and I'm saying the same about Webb.

 

The LD rate is high (but will come down), but the results driven stats don't really indicate he's suffered much from it.

 

You are right about Cishek's BB rate being inflated by intentional walks, but even if you make the adjust to 3.48, his K/BB rate is still worse than Webb's is. That means that the walk rate is still too high.

 

The point being is that it's not hard to find some flaws in the peripherals. I'm not going to say that Webb's been terrible all year and shouldn't have been used in that situation just because his LD rate is inflated.

I don't believe he's allowed any inherited runners to score. He also rates well in tie game and close & late situations overall, but it's too much effort required to tally up individual game results for that.

 

We use statistics because our impressions are often wrong.

 

9 of his 25 IRs have scored (Webb). Cishek has allowed 5 of 15 in.