Out of the Past

1981 - Raiders of the Lost Ark 1980 - Raging Bull / Breaker Morant 1979 - Breaking Away 1978 - The Deer Hunter 1977 - 3 Women 1976 - Taxi Driver 1975 - ... 1974 - The Godfather Part II 1973 - Day for Night / The Day of the Jackal 1972 - The Godfather 1971 - Dirty Harry 1970 - Patton

teams like tampa and pittsburgh will never sniff a world series title, nevermind the playoffs until their is a salary cap in place...sports should be about playing on a level playing field, on and off the diamond, arena, or football field Even with a salary cap the DRays wont make the playoffs without a salary floor to go along with it. The cap does very little without the floor. Without the floor they will continue pocketing the revenue sharing money. They've been doing it long before Loria.

Mike Lowell Janet Reno

Jack McKeon wasted outs with all of his steals and bunts. We're lucky we won in 2003 with him. I don't like Jack and I don't like sticking up for him and he was definitely a small ball guy who gave away too many outs BUT in the '03 season he was a major improvement over Torborg who was a complete;ly reckless with his small ball tactics that season. I did the math and in his 38 games Torborg gave away 1.16 outs per game. In his 124 games Jack "only" gave away .96 per game. The NL average was .90 per game. If we don't switch managers I doubt we win the WS.

When did Pudge forget how to take a walk? and his last 3 years OPS have been crap for the money he would want: .734, .769, and .711 this season with 8 walks.... 8! You put a .769 OPS on Olivo last year and we're a playoff team...a .711 OPS this year still represents a sizable upgrade. Just sayin' Last year Olivo had a .727 OPS. I don't think a .042 OPS jump from one guy would have resulted in an additional 11 wins.

I fail to see any issue in this thread, and with the team. There are only three things we need to succeed over 162 games next year. If we have to throw out Dontrelle, Olsen, Mitre, G. Hernandez, and run a 4 man rotation for 3-4 weeks, no big deal. It's very likely anyways. By the time the team is ready to succeed for the summer stretch, we'll have 12 pitchers from the list of 18-20 pitchers below ready for MLB spots. We have plenty of SP options (Dontrelle, Olsen, Mitre, Nolasco, Vanden Hurk, Anibal, G. Hernandez, Volstad, and even Barone). We have plenty of RP options (Gregg, Lindstrom, Tank, Pinto, Kensing, Miller, C. Mart, Gardner, H. Garcia, Zarate, any SP rejects above, and hopefully Owens, J. Garcia). We have the triplets (Cabrera, Hanley, Hermida), We have above average producers (Hammer, Uggla) We have a solid core bench (Cody, Treanor, Amezaga) We have strong hope for an .850 OPS (Jacobs) We need a center fielder who, at minimum, can hit RHP .800+ OPS, and play league average or better defense. We need a catcher who can catch baseballs and hit even a .700+ OPS. We need to resign Aaron Boone, or a like player, to fill out the bench. (Jason Wood is not this). And we've needed the first two of those things, for over a year and a half. Nothings new. Dontrelle isn't this bad. Olsen isn't this bad. The defense is going to improve with age, just how it does for a lot of players. People are calling out Mitre. The dude is freaking tired. They should obviously shut him down, but this was a huge year for him and he'll be valuable to us as a 5th starter or long reliever until superior players (Volstad, Thompson, Sinkbeil), start pushing him off the team. This is the best bullpen, talent and depth, the franchise has ever had. The lineup, is already sick. We're in great shape. The end result of this year is going to be real simple. We got a top 5 draft pick because of injuries, not because the team was constructed poorly. It'll only help us longterm as it brings better talent into the organization. A best case scenario for me (assuming rationality and not blind faith for a series) is, the team is very competitive in 2008 where most of the pitchers establish themselves and Dontrelle is expendable at the break to bring us some hotshot at C or CF. No major injuries, healthy recoveries, etc, too. Then 2009, is THE year. No excuses in 2009. Win or go home. Next year the offense should once again be a strength. Top 4 or better. I don't know how you can assume the defense will improve with age. The guys are older in '07 than they were in '06 and they've regressed. They'll improve with hard work, not with age. On the starting pitching, Willis should bounce back but Olsen, Mitre and Nolasco have proven they can be 5th types and I wouldn't predict anything better out of them. If they pitch better than 5ths then take it as a pleasant surprise. I wouldn't predict much out of Anibal either because of the the injury. Anything we get out of him should be looked as another pleasant surprise. With RVH and the other babies, I don't follow the minors but last time I checked these guys (maybe 1?) weren't in the top 20 or top 50 of the top prospects lists so I wouldn't consider them locks or anything close to it to be quality MLB pitchers. Regarding '09, I don't see Loria spending the $70+ million that it would take to keep the team together.

I think Miguel's '09 arbitration salary will be close to $20 million and I have a hard time believing Loria / Beinfest will pay that much for one player (hard to outperform a $20 million salary) so I think '08 was supposed to be THE YEAR and things don't look too promising because of the staring pitching.

i think peavy just choked the cy young away...8 er in 4 innings pitched in 3 days rest, idiot. I don't think having a bad game = choking and I still think he's the front runner but I'm rooting for Beckett and Penny to win them so I was glad to see him get bombed.

In 2004 Carlos Pena hit 27 Homers with 82 RBIs. Last year he barely played in 18 games and only had 33 ABs. I would say that merits him consideration for the Comeback of the Year Award what did he comeback from? He goes from a being a minor league afterthought to putting up MVP type numbers. If that's not a good comeback I don't know what is. I always thought the award was for injuries/illness/retirement Griffey back from injury, Ankiel back from his mental issues, Hamilton back from drugs, and so on I don't think injuries/illness/retirement are requirements for the award. Anyone having a good year off coming off a bad year can win it.

In 2004 Carlos Pena hit 27 Homers with 82 RBIs. Last year he barely played in 18 games and only had 33 ABs. I would say that merits him consideration for the Comeback of the Year Award what did he comeback from? He goes from a being a minor league afterthought to putting up MVP type numbers. If that's not a good comeback I don't know what is.

We need to put Hammer at 1st, auction off Jake and get an FA or 2. I'd be more concerned with getting arms rather than position players, though. Treanor has been as close to adequate as you can get, and we have some CF options; between Ross, Amezaga, Carroll, and you never know... Reggie could become viable at the highest level, since he continues to own every other level. see i dont think reggie will be anything more than a AAAA player. he may own every other level but he hasnt owned the one that matters. and it seems like everyone wants jacobs gone but realistically im very sure that jacobs is going to be the 1B of the future. lately its looking like he is finding some kind of groove and i doubt the front office will be "auctioning him off". as for cody i definetly would like to see him get a shot at a full time CF job. i think hes earned it or at least a full time platoon with him and amezaga, if ur still concerned about him hitting against RHP IMO, we need to keep amezaga as the utility guy, not the everyday cf. If any platoon should be made in CF, if should be De Aza and Ross. However, Im all for giving hte full time job to De Aza. De Aza had month to earn the job and he fumbled it. Reggie had chances last year and again this year and he fumbled it. If anything give Carroll a shot the next 4 weeks. He did nothing when he was here earlier but it wasn't much of a shot as it was only for about a week or two.

Fredi should show them that graphic and ask them how they feel about being just about the worst team in the Majors.Maybe that will give them a wake up call-we all know they are better than this but the fact is,they have been playing like putrid vomit for the last month or so. They aren't the worst in the Majors, they are the worst in the NL. I believe the Rays have the race to the bottom won. Go state of Florida!! The gap is only 3 games and they've won 7 of their last 10 and we're freefalling so we may catch them.. or they may catch us.. depends on how you look at it.

Mike Lowell leads his team with a .330 BA and 101 RBIs. Josh Beckett leads his team with 17 Wins and a 3.30 ERA. I think I'll be cheering for the Red Sox this postseason. Just can't help but have a soft spot for anyone who's contributed to a WS title for us :cool Hey, Lowell's a free agent.... True, because we obviously need a 3B. Miggy just isn't getting it done. It will never happen but I would like Lowell at third and Miguel at first.

To compare the BA allowed off batted balls (excluding Ks) off nasty pitchers compared to meatballers I took the 10 best active and the 10 worst active pitchers in ERA+ from baseball-reference. The average BA allowed off batted balls by the 10 best (Nasty Guys) is .313. The average BA allowed off batted balls by the 10 worst (Meatball Guys) is .333. The difference could arise primarily because the Nasty Guys make more nasty pitches and nasty pitches don't get hit as hard as meatballs or it could arise primarily because of the luck factors (defense, randomness) espoused by the Voros guy and bobbob, Festa and CrimsomCane. I'll just say that I don't think the Nasty Guys allow a lower BA off batted balls because they're lucky. Now I promise I'm done with this thread. ===== I would have used OPS rather than BA but I don't know of a quick and easy way of doing it with OPS.

Let me put it another way... a.) a pitcher controls the quality of pitches he makes b.) the quality of pitches he makes impacts how hard his pitches are hit c.) and thus a pitcher controls how hard his pitches are hit Do you disagree with a or with b or with c or with all of them?

I think location, movement and velocity have a lot to do with how hard a ball is batted and have a hard time believing that some think these things have nothing to do with it and that it all comes down to luck (from the pitcher's perspective). Yes, a "nasty" pitch can be pummeled and a "meatball" can be popped-up but the nasty pitch is much more likely to be popped-up and the meatball is much more likely to be pummeled. Again, I don't know how anyone can disagree with this.

I think going into next year Cody has earned the job as the CF vs lefties and I don't care if he struggles next ST.

If I remember right the Marlins are on pace to either go under last season's error total or meet it. Only someone from the dark ages would judge team defense solely with errors. There's something called DER (balls in play turned into outs). If you're interested in joining the present, which I doubt as it would go agaisnt your argument, you may want to check out what it is. We're the worst NL defensive team based on DER in about 10 years and Fredi's response is to cut back on defensive drills. And what were we last year? Girardi at least had Perry Hill. Fredi had to deal with a quick change and brought in Andy Fox whose a rookie for coaching. Last year we were 9th. Fox is an inexperienced coach and because of Fox's inexperience Fredi should take a more hands on approach over defensive drills. This is just another instance where Fredi has failed.

If anyone can explain why he had a "bad" year in '99 it's Maddux himself. If I had to make a guess I would say he probably didn't have his normal pin point control throughout that season (lack of execution is not bad luck, BTW) and he probably had a couple of bad games that skewed his stats a bit. I thought that you had agreed, on a separate thread, that how hard a hitter hits the ball will impact his BABIP so doesn't it follow that how hard a pitcher is hit will impact his BABIP allowed? He had his usual pinpoint control that season, actually allowing less walks than the year before. Not an excuse. Your logic makes sense except a pitcher has no control over how hard the ball is hit. He could be throwing meat balls all day but if the hitters don't make solid contact, it doesn't make him a good pitcher. He might've just faced tougher competition, or had a worse defense behind him. These are not things he can control. Here's a breif summary of Voros McCracken's groundbreaking study on the subject that eventually lead to the development of DIPS and BABIP, among other things: McCracken's findings implied that major league pitchers had relatively little control over the outcome of balls put into play against them. Specifically, McCracken found that the percentage of balls put into play against a particular pitcher that fell for hits did not correlate well across seasons. This implied that elements beyond the pitcher's control, including his defense, ballpark effects, the weather, and most importantly, randomness, had significant effects upon his performance. This theory flew in the face of conventional wisdom, but has been confirmed (at least in its simplest form) by many researchers. The loss of pin point control would not necessarily lead to higher walks. If he misses inside the strike zone that would make his pitches more hitable and that would lead to the higher BABIP allowed with similar walks as the previous year. Obviously I disagree with your stance that pitchers have no control over how hard their pitches are hit. If that's the case why do pitchers go through all the effort to throw pitches with movement down the corners of the strike zone? Why not groove straight meatball after straight meatball down the middle of the plate if what kind of pitches they make makes no difference in how hard their pitches are hit?

If I remember right the Marlins are on pace to either go under last season's error total or meet it. Only someone from the dark ages would judge team defense solely with errors. There's something called DER (balls in play turned into outs). If you're interested in joining the present, which I doubt as it would go agaisnt your argument, you may want to check out what it is. We're the worst NL defensive team based on DER in about 10 years and Fredi's response is to cut back on defensive drills.

If anyone can explain why he had a "bad" year in '99 it's Maddux himself. If I had to make a guess I would say he probably didn't have his normal pin point control throughout that season (lack of execution is not bad luck, BTW) and he probably had a couple of bad games that skewed his stats a bit. I thought that you had agreed, on a separate thread, that how hard a hitter hits the ball will impact his BABIP so doesn't it follow that how hard a pitcher is hit will impact his BABIP allowed?

So basically you posted to get a rise, but when an actual fact-based counter-arguement comes up, rather then trying to debate that, you instead put your hands over your ears and keep saying "I'm right, you're wrong" and nothing to actually back your side up. If that's what you set out to accomplish, well, congratulations. I don't consider your "bad luck" argument regarding DTrain's high batting average allowed and high number of HRs allowed to be fact based. I consider your argument to be head-stuck-in-the-sand based. You threw some stats in making the argument but unfortunately you misinterpreted the stats.

I know you're kidding, but I was definitely expecting to open this thread and see everyone who once defended Hermida because of luck and continue to defend Train because of luck just push this article aside. Great article by LeBatard. I think the ones who pull the luck card whenever they have nowhere to turn will probably like this article.

Barry Jackson gets it... Le Batard does not. http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/story/223438.html The Marlins praise Fredi Gonzalez publicly, and realize pitching injuries make it difficult to assess him. That's reasonable -- no manager would contend with a pitching staff so injury-ravaged and inconsistent. Still, we've received mixed feedback on Gonzalez: ? Before Florida lost 12 of 13 recently, two players said they hadn't once heard Gonzalez yell at the team, unlike Joe Girardi. We're told he has become more stern addressing the team during the losing skid, but without any eardrum-popping tirades. Even one Marlins official said he wants to see Gonzalez, who is liked by the players, to get angrier with them at times, and another clubhouse presence said ''more tough love'' is needed. (It should be noted that general manager Admin Beinfest, who has praised Gonzalez, was not a source in this column.) ''Fredi is maybe a bit too much of a pleaser, whether it's painting a rosy picture or wanting players to like him,'' one scout who follows the Marlins said. 'Sometimes it's a good motivational tool to say, `I'm really upset.' You don't always have to end on a positive note. Good managers don't have a problem with confrontation. He'll get better at that.'' Gonzalez insisted, ''You can't be something you're not. If you try to be fake, the players know it. As far as being hard, it's not screaming and yelling. We get the same message across.'' Are there times he wishes he would have been harder on players? ``No, no, no, no. They bust their [butt].'' ? One person closely involved with the team said Gonzalez has given the players ''a lot of leeway'' to do pregame work without being on their back like Girardi was. ''That didn't work,'' the person said, because ``guys didn't take it upon themselves to get better.'' ? One Marlins official said Gonzalez should have addressed Miguel Cabrera's weight with him sooner. Another pointed to a laxness in spring training. ? Gonzalez is very involved before games -- throwing batting practice, partaking in infield drills -- but people internally say staff changes have hurt. One Marlin said infield coach Andy Fox has a bright future, but that Perry Hill (who retired in March) is missed, especially ''in terms of repetition and emphasis on technique.'' Catcher Miguel Olivo said he has had much less personal instruction than in 2006 under Gary Tuck, who was fired with Girardi. In the staff's defense, the Marlins -- who lead the majors in errors -- are subpar defensively at several positions and entered Friday on pace for just two more errors than last year's 126. ? One move fans understandably question is Gonzalez's continued use of Armando Benitez (seven blown saves) to preserve eighth-inning leads. (Gonzalez said that won't change.) ''Part of the manager's job is to protect the front office,'' an NL scout said. ``He didn't trade for Benitez, but he has to use him.'' Like all managers, Gonzalez leaves himself open to fans' second-guessing with debatable sacrifice bunts. But two scouts said Gonzalez generally has done ''OK'' with in-game decisions.

I don't think I've read those posts but I'm among the people who think Dontrelle is the cause for Dontrelle's poor pitching. We agree on that. Not everyone does. Strange but true.