Fish Dynasty

god i hate sabermetrics Makes your head hurt? no, i just dont like how we view way expanded stats like that instead of relying on actually watching players ... Well, in that case, please tell me what you've decided based upon your large sample of viewing Sanchez, Morrison, and Dominguez. i look at their basic stats, see a few games, and hear reports of what they have looked like this year. to me, its not necessary to go that deep into stats with prospects. for me for a hitter you should look at the basic splits, how theyve progressed each month, k/bb, average, hr's, how old they are in their league. stuff like that. no need t go deep into stats for prospects. for pitchers all i really need to see for prospects is low baa, good k/bb, low hr's (moreso for relievers), how they have been each month, and how have they been vs lefties and righties(again, moreso for relievers) just not necessary in my opiniono to go so deep with them, because it really is the basic things you are looking for. And it has been proven that the "basic things" depend on many factors, in which you usually need to go in depth within statistics to figure them out. Let me give you a good example. Here are Michael Young's stats: 2008: .284/.339/.402/.741 2009: .322/.376/.524/.900 Most people would say that Young is having a MUCH better year this year than last year. When you go in-depth though, you would see that he hasn't progressed in skill, but rather luck. Young's K% and BB% of his two season's are nearly identical, which results in his K/BB being nearly identical (.50 K/BB in '08, .53 in '09.) Young's LD%, GB%, and FB% are also all within 2% of each other. Again, barely any change. There are only three major changes between his '08 and '09 stats though, which are ISO, BABIP, and HR/FB%. His ISO has increased .084 from last year, which just doesn't happen to somebody going from 31 years old to 32 years old. The cause of his ISO increasing? His BABIP is .354 this year, up .028 from his .326 BABIP last year. His HR/FB% is the stat that has dramatically increased though, which is more than double his last year's HR/FB% (7.2 HR/FB% in '08, 15.5% in '09.) For reference, Young is a career 9.7% HR/FB% player, which proves this season to be a fluke. Things aren't always clear-cut when you just look at K/BB, average, and home runs, and age. If we just went by that, how would you possibly explain a player going from a .741 OPS to a .900 OPS in his 30s?

god i hate sabermetrics I'm not surprised.

trust me el Duque tiene 44 anos asere. Like when you said the Heat had signed Lamar Odom?

you guys need to grow up and start being realists. he should be commended for telling the truth. we are not an attractive place to play at all, and at least he was honest, rather then lying Yes, anytime sometime says something bad about a team that you like he should be commended. It is basically the same thing as me saying Bonifacio sucks, which is true, but I dont need to say it since we all know that it is a fact. Should I be commended everytime a state an obvious fact? no, but when asked, you should say that. why should he be commended for asking a correction correctly? what is the point of the interview then? you think he should go with all the bs same stuff they say every interview then? why should we waste our time then? God you have horrible grammar. Since you don't seem to know what ethics or manners are, you shouldn't say something bad about a team if it isn't necessary. A simple "I didn't want to go to Florida" would have been just fine.

you guys need to grow up and start being realists. he should be commended for telling the truth. we are not an attractive place to play at all, and at least he was honest, rather then lying Yes, anytime sometime says something bad about a team that you like he should be commended. It is basically the same thing as me saying Bonifacio sucks, which is true, but I dont need to say it since we all know that it is a fact. Should I be commended everytime a state an obvious fact? You're going to die. Everything you're doing right now is basically pointless because in the end you'll be dust and nothingness. It's inevitable. I commend you.

you guys need to grow up and start being realists. he should be commended for telling the truth. we are not an attractive place to play at all, and at least he was honest, rather then lying Yes, anytime sometime says something bad about a team that you like he should be commended. It is basically the same thing as me saying Bonifacio sucks, which is true, but I dont need to say it since we all know that it is a fact. Should I be commended everytime a state an obvious fact?

FishDyn and Miller - this is just a definitional issue. Miller is saying that (correctly so), ROY is based off of this year's performance, and Happ's ultimate performance has been extremely good, and in his mind not overrated. You both understand what is lacking in his peripherals and a regression seems extremely likely, but for ROY, I just don't think you can discount a guy too much based on his BABIP, et. al. And I think Miller would agree. Sorry if I misrepresented anything - just trying to clear it up, if possible. That's about right. I'm not doubting at all that he is a top candidate for ROY, and I think he will win it, since the writers probably don't look past wins and ERA. However, I disagree when someone says that he has been "good" this year. He's been lucky, and since people tend to base players off of W-L and ERA, he is generally overrated. Lol, Sorry, I misunderstood when you said he is overrated. I thought you meant because he has been lucky, he has no chance of winning the ROY. No, not at all. I know that when talking about ROY, MVP, CY Young, etc., you don't need to use in-depth stats to figure out who is going to win it (i.e., instead of using WAR to determine the MVP, it usually is based off of BA, HRs, RBIs, etc.)

FishDyn and Miller - this is just a definitional issue. Miller is saying that (correctly so), ROY is based off of this year's performance, and Happ's ultimate performance has been extremely good, and in his mind not overrated. You both understand what is lacking in his peripherals and a regression seems extremely likely, but for ROY, I just don't think you can discount a guy too much based on his BABIP, et. al. And I think Miller would agree. Sorry if I misrepresented anything - just trying to clear it up, if possible. No, I do think he is a bit overrated. I defenitely do not think he is a low mid 2, low 3 ERA pitcher, with a very good WHIP. And, I don't expect him to keep up his LOB%. But, like you said, his ultimate performance has been great, and that is what you look at. You're still confusing great with lucky.

The numbers you used suggested that he is lucky. His ERA, WHIP, and Opp BA is still great. Which is exactly what Lou said (which is why I responded with my post.)

FishDyn and Miller - this is just a definitional issue. Miller is saying that (correctly so), ROY is based off of this year's performance, and Happ's ultimate performance has been extremely good, and in his mind not overrated. You both understand what is lacking in his peripherals and a regression seems extremely likely, but for ROY, I just don't think you can discount a guy too much based on his BABIP, et. al. And I think Miller would agree. Sorry if I misrepresented anything - just trying to clear it up, if possible. That's about right. I'm not doubting at all that he is a top candidate for ROY, and I think he will win it, since the writers probably don't look past wins and ERA. However, I disagree when someone says that he has been "good" this year. He's been lucky, and since people tend to base players off of W-L and ERA, he is generally overrated.

I don't think I'd put CC in the top 5. Hansen, Wells, Happ, McCutchen, G. Jones, maybe Kawakami. I'm just speculating, I'm not making a list. But CC is awesome, but he may not be a top 5 this year. As a second basemen, I'd say yes. But not LF. This isn't fantasy baseball rankings. That's actually the problem. The voters are using nothing more than fantasy baseball stats. Many of those players, especially Happ, are having extremely overrated seasons. Care to explain to me how a 2.77 era, 1.18 whip over 150 innings is extremely overrated. To start, he has a .253 BABIP. If you think that just shows how great he has been this year, it doesn't. He has a relatively high LD%, and he has a FB% that is the 4th highest in the NL. And you can't counter with the argument that he has a high HR/FB%, because his is actually pretty low. Even though it's low, he is still giving up 1.02 HR/9 (17 in just under 150 IP.) He also hasn't been a big strikeout guy this year, and he hasn't been a low walk guy either, creating his sub-par 2.00 K/BB. As of now, he has a 4.32 FIP, and, as a result of all his LDs and FBs, he has a 4.91 tRA. To add to that, he has the highest LOB% in the MLB. He's been getting lucky this year, but I wouldn't expect an ERA under four for him next season. He's getting lucky, but he's not overrated. Right now, his numbers are incredible. And if he ends the year with those numbers, he'll win the ROY award. I agree with you, though. Next season, I expect a dramatic fall in his production. Then, the Phillies Fans will kill him. How is he not overrated? Wasn't that what my entire post was about? And what numbers of his are so "incredible"? (Please, don't just use the same stats Lou used.)

What's meaningless about a walk-off hit? That you help your team win a game, or that you do it in about the most uplifting way possible? I'm signing off now, but I'll be waiting on you remembering the last time Hanley did it (if ever). I can tell you are a stat guy. More power to you, just remember that a hit in the 1st inning isn't the same as one in the 9th. If you're bored and can't go to sleep, see if you can find a stat showing just how many of Hanley's rbi's last year (all 17 of them) came when games weren't already decided (one way or the other). Go Cody. Go Marlins. Really? Could you explain to me the difference between hitting a two-run home run in the first and hitting one in the ninth? As far as I know, you're still gaining two runs either way, so I'd like to hear your explanation. And yes, I'm a stat guy, because unlike you, I actually have something to back my statements up instead of telling other people to try to remember something meaningless from the past, and using that to base a pointless argument over why one of the best players in baseball is overrated.

I get your point. Obviously saying that he sucks is pure hyperbole, but I still do not think he is as good as everyone thinks he is. This is only worsened by his selfish attitude and crappy play when it matters. Answer me this: If we are down 3-2 in the bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, two outs, who do you want up there hitting? I take Cantu, Cody, Baker, Coghlan, Uggla, Helms, Gload, and Johnson over Hanley. Hell, I might even take Hermida. Hanley is a choke artist who will never be a true winner until he learns that baseball is a team game. Everything from his teal shoes, to his teal glove is a desperate cry for attention. Not to mention his all-too-often stupid comments and actions. Seriously, who wears a shirt saying "trade me" because I'm tired of this shi* when asked to abide by the team grooming policy? What makes him so effing special that he's above everyone else? Who says that he's playing at "10 %", and goes crying to the media that his teammates are upset (while your team is reeling but still in the race)? Who, when asked how good JJ is (well before the All-Star game), says "yes, he'll be in St. Louis with me." This guy is Manny Ramirez waiting to happen. His head has gotten too big and I've been a Marlins fan long enough to recognize we've had some true studs come through here. This fool isn't one of them. Please, provide me one stat on why you would rather have those players up in that situation instead of Hanley. Answer me this, when is the last time Hanley Ramirez got a walk-off hit? Off the top of my head, I can think of one for Cantu, Cody, Uggla, Helms, and Gload this year alone. I may be wrong, but I can't remember one. Other than his solo home runs (off Rauch) in the series vs. Arizona last year and a double off the CF wall against the Mets on the road (also last year), I'm drawing some serious blanks trying to think of big, late inning hits by this selfish, choking clown. I can certainly remember big situations where all Hanley needed to do was hit a sac fly or make an out to score big runs, and he instead, left his bat on his shoulder and stared at an outside fastball (like the bitc* that he is). Add this to the reasons I think he's overrated and certainly not entitled to act like the diva that he thinks he is. Back to yesterday, does no one else remember reading (or hearing) that he got into it with Wes earlier this season? I don't remember details but I do remember it happening. I'll skip the part where I explain why a walk-off hit is almost meaningless and is completely dependent on other factors, and just say that the last time I checked, "remembering when someone last had a walk-off hit" isn't a stat, and it doesn't prove your point in any way that Hanley is overrated.

I'm sorry. I'm not ready to drop this subject yet. Why the hell is your username HanleySucks? What made you think he sucks? If Hanley sucks, I wish every Marlin sucks. If Hanley sucks every hitter not named Pujols sucks. And Hanley's a shortstop, which makes it even more impressive. (not saying he's better than Pujols, but I'm sure you get my point) I get your point. Obviously saying that he sucks is pure hyperbole, but I still do not think he is as good as everyone thinks he is. This is only worsened by his selfish attitude and crappy play when it matters. Answer me this: If we are down 3-2 in the bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, two outs, who do you want up there hitting? I take Cantu, Cody, Baker, Coghlan, Uggla, Helms, Gload, and Johnson over Hanley. Hell, I might even take Hermida. Hanley is a choke artist who will never be a true winner until he learns that baseball is a team game. Everything from his teal shoes, to his teal glove is a desperate cry for attention. Not to mention his all-too-often stupid comments and actions. Seriously, who wears a shirt saying "trade me" because I'm tired of this shi* when asked to abide by the team grooming policy? What makes him so effing special that he's above everyone else? Who says that he's playing at "10 %", and goes crying to the media that his teammates are upset (while your team is reeling but still in the race)? Who, when asked how good JJ is (well before the All-Star game), says "yes, he'll be in St. Louis with me." This guy is Manny Ramirez waiting to happen. His head has gotten too big and I've been a Marlins fan long enough to recognize we've had some true studs come through here. This fool isn't one of them. Please, provide me one stat on why you would rather have those players up in that situation instead of Hanley.

Uggla doesn't suck. Hanley isn't like that. What is up with your username? The fact that before this year, Hanley was hands down the most overrated player in baseball. This year he has performed. There is no doubt about that. But I can't stand how that fool continuosly does/says dumb shi*. He's essentially self-proclaimed himself the best player in baseball and thinks he must be treated differently than everybody else. He thinks he's above the team. Baseball is a team sport. This effing clown needs to learn to shut his mouth and use his talent to become a winner, because up to now, whenever the games really start to mean something, the jackass disappears. I, for one, can't wait until we trade him. If I, as Marlins fan, can get over Beckett and Cabrera getting traded, I can certainly get over this loser moving on in exchange for winners. Wow. Just for fun, could you please tell me how Hanley was the most overrated player in baseball last year? Should I start with his anemic, pathethic batting average with runners in scoring position, or with the ungodly number of errors (and mistakes that he made not counting as errors such as booting routine double play groundballs during key parts in games)? He had an .869 OPS with RISP last year, and a .928 OPS with men on base, so I don't see what you're complaining about there. On defense, he had a -.6 UZR, which is about average. Nice try.

To start, he has a .253 BABIP. If you think that just shows how great he has been this year, it doesn't. He has a relatively high LD%, and he has a FB% that is the 4th highest in the NL. And you can't counter with the argument that he has a high HR/FB%, because his is actually pretty low. Even though it's low, he is still giving up 1.02 HR/9 (17 in just under 150 IP.) He also hasn't been a big strikeout guy this year, and he hasn't been a low walk guy either, creating his sub-par 2.00 K/BB. As of now, he has a 4.32 FIP, and, as a result of all his LDs and FBs, he has a 4.91 tRA. To add to that, he has the highest LOB% in the MLB. He's been getting lucky this year, but I wouldn't expect an ERA under four for him next season. Are you talking about Happ? His LD% is 13th in the NL and is 1.2% below the NL average. Probably looked at the wrong year for that then, my bad.

Is there a reason why Maybin and Carroll are both starting against a RHP?

I don't think I'd put CC in the top 5. Hansen, Wells, Happ, McCutchen, G. Jones, maybe Kawakami. I'm just speculating, I'm not making a list. But CC is awesome, but he may not be a top 5 this year. As a second basemen, I'd say yes. But not LF. This isn't fantasy baseball rankings. That's actually the problem. The voters are using nothing more than fantasy baseball stats. Many of those players, especially Happ, are having extremely overrated seasons. Care to explain to me how a 2.77 era, 1.18 whip over 150 innings is extremely overrated. To start, he has a .253 BABIP. If you think that just shows how great he has been this year, it doesn't. He has a relatively high LD%, and he has a FB% that is the 4th highest in the NL. And you can't counter with the argument that he has a high HR/FB%, because his is actually pretty low. Even though it's low, he is still giving up 1.02 HR/9 (17 in just under 150 IP.) He also hasn't been a big strikeout guy this year, and he hasn't been a low walk guy either, creating his sub-par 2.00 K/BB. As of now, he has a 4.32 FIP, and, as a result of all his LDs and FBs, he has a 4.91 tRA. To add to that, he has the highest LOB% in the MLB. He's been getting lucky this year, but I wouldn't expect an ERA under four for him next season.

Uggla doesn't suck. Hanley isn't like that. What is up with your username? The fact that before this year, Hanley was hands down the most overrated player in baseball. This year he has performed. There is no doubt about that. But I can't stand how that fool continuosly does/says dumb shi*. He's essentially self-proclaimed himself the best player in baseball and thinks he must be treated differently than everybody else. He thinks he's above the team. Baseball is a team sport. This effing clown needs to learn to shut his mouth and use his talent to become a winner, because up to now, whenever the games really start to mean something, the jackass disappears. I, for one, can't wait until we trade him. If I, as Marlins fan, can get over Beckett and Cabrera getting traded, I can certainly get over this loser moving on in exchange for winners. Wow. Just for fun, could you please tell me how Hanley was the most overrated player in baseball last year?

Can someone tell me if Garret Jones is a rookie? I thought he wasn't but I'm not so sure. He is. You need to have fewer than 130 ABs to be qualified as a rookie. Jones had 84 career ABs before this year.

I don't think I'd put CC in the top 5. Hansen, Wells, Happ, McCutchen, G. Jones, maybe Kawakami. I'm just speculating, I'm not making a list. But CC is awesome, but he may not be a top 5 this year. As a second basemen, I'd say yes. But not LF. This isn't fantasy baseball rankings. That's actually the problem. The voters are using nothing more than fantasy baseball stats. Many of those players, especially Happ, are having extremely overrated seasons.

I hate to say this but with no significant trades/picks-ups besides a washed-up, run down Nick Johnson... it's only a matter of time before we are eliminated. We had a good run but in the end it was our starting pitching that killed our 2009 season. See you guys in 2010! Seriously? What did you want the FO to do? Trade for Halladay?

at John Lackey. He's making $10 million this year and will probably net even more when he signs. I appreciate Lou taking a realistic approach by actually considering the dollar amounts. If the Marlins sign a starter, they are only likely to get an inexpensive 5th starter caliber arm. I would love to see Uggla traded in the offseason for pitching and move Coghlan to second. Of Cantu, Ross, Hermida, and Johnson, I'd keep Ross and Johnson and fill in the gaps in-house or with the Marlins get for Uggla in return. I, probably like most people who posted in this thread, were just stating which pitcher they would like to have the most, without taking into consideration financial constraints. Taking money into account, Lackey is out of the question, and I doubt we go after guys like Harden or Bedard. Realistically, I would like Duchscherer, as he would probably come cheap, and he was solid when he was starting in '08. Washburn is getting old, Smoltz is going to be 43 next year, and Penny and Marquis just aren't that good. Also, if we let Cantu go, who are you planning on playing 3B? Bonifacio?

For Meyer, if he's a groundball pitcher, isn't he supposed to outperform his FIP? Meyer is a severe FB pitcher My bad, I thought the other post was implying the opposite. Silly of me not to check (or just think about it, haha). Meyer has been more of a GB pitcher this year than in years past, but still not enough to be considered a "GB pitcher." In '07 and '08, he was a severe FB pitcher.

What are you talking about? ERA deliberately excludes runs that are unearned. Hence why it's called Earned Run Average. It also has nothing to do with hits. Yes, but the part that can be flawed is judging if a run should be earned or unearned. For example, technically a misplay can't be ruled an error if the glove doesn't touch the ball, which is why defense always plays a factor in ERA, unlike tRA or FIP.