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08 CAMERON MAYBIN OF, MARLINS 8/18/07: Date when he hit his first big league homer?off Roger Clemens. Opening Day Age: 22 ETA: 2009 16 MIKE STANTON OF, MARLINS .988: OPS away from Greensboro's cozy NewBridge Bank Park; it was .996 at home. 18 LOGAN MORRISON 1B, MARLINS 29: RBIs in 25 games he played in the AFL while hitting .404. Opening Day Age: 21 ETA: 2010 64 MATT DOMINGUEZ 3B, MARLINS 70: RBIs at low Class A Greensboro in 2008, despite missing six weeks because of mononucleosis. Opening Day Age: 19 ETA: 2011 85 KYLE SKIPWORTH C, MARLINS 36: Percentage of basestealers he threw out in the Gulf Coast League last summer, best mark in the league. Opening Day Age: 19 ETA: 2012 96 SEAN WEST LHP, MARLINS 130: Innings pitched last season between high Class A and the Arizona Fall League, after he made just three appearances in the first two months because of blisters. Opening Day Age: 22 ETA: 2010 Source: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...009/267702.html

Do we really need a link to all the articles published at the official Marlins' site? Most people visit the site for updates already.

We don't need to "argue" anything. There's comprehensive data to support these types of discussions. Teixeira has been +2.7 runs above average in his career at 1B, Pujols has been +7.3 in his career. Pujols 1B defense is about a half a win better at the position (which is pretty significant).

Also, although I'm not really a fan of the stat, for the two years that Hanley has reached elite level, Utley has posted more Value Wins than Hanley. Yes, Hanley is at an upward trend whereas Utley has likely peaked, and with out a doubt Hanley is the better player to start a franchise with. But we're talking about a single season here, so it doesn't matter that Utley is entering the last legs of his prime years, he's still in his prime. Do I think Hanley will be more valuable than Utley next year? Yeah, but it's absolutely ridiculous to just completely discount Utley. First, can you tell me what you don't like about Win Values? There isn't a more robust way to measure a player's overall value. It incorporates position, defense(UZR), offense(wOBA, including base-running), and durability(plate appearances). The major weakness of Win Values (presented at Fangraphs), is that the offensive portion isn't adjusted for ballpark. Utley is in an extreme hitters park, and Ramirez is in an extreme pitchers park. The Win Values you see, are not ballpark adjusted. If we make the adjustment, Hanley is more valuable than Utley. Only Albert Pujols is a head of Hanley when taking into account: Position, Defense, Offense, Base Running, Position Scarcity, and Durability. And this isn't some subjective opinion, it's a robust calculation of each components actual run impact. And yes, that's a head of: Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, David Wright, Ryan Howard, [enter in any famous/superstar player here besides Pujols] Hanley is only 25 (players don't peak until 26-27), so he still has at least 1-2 more years of actual improvement. There isn't a better, younger, more talented player in all of baseball -- right now. David Wright being the only other position player, somewhat-close.

OPS isn't adjusted for ballpark, and it's a poor metric to use when there are far more robust statistics out there, like wOBA. Hanley plays in an extreme pitchers park, Utley plays in an extreme hitters park. SS is the second hardest position to field behind catcher. When making adjustments for these two factors, Hanley is more productive than Utley. Utley's value is in being a really good hitter and fielder. Hanley doesn't field SS well, but he does a good enough job to be an asset at the position. Right now, Pujols is probably the only player better than Hanley and Hanley is still only going to get better (he's only 25)

According to win Values (a metric that takes into consideration defense, position scarcity, offense, and playing time, Hanley Ramirez was behind Chase Utley and Albert Pujols last season for the most valuable player in the league--both NL and AL (3rd place overall). Here's the link to see the entire list: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...008&month=0 Hanley is still on the upward swing of the age curve, meaning he still has untapped potential. The other names around him are much older and already at their ceiling.

Erick, who would you say is the better than Hanley Ramirez right now?

Predicting Hanley to win NL MVP is like predicting Ryan Howard will be the homerun king this season. It's, like, duuuurrr Hanley is the best player in baseball. A SS that's a threat to lead the league in wOBA is an extremely valuable (MVP), player.

I think it's quite necessary, actually. Teams invest more money, in one year, on one player, than 95% of the world sees in a lifetime. Maybe not the Marlins, but I digress: If I'm a General Manager of a hundred-million-dollar franchise, and my performance is measured by how efficiently I allocate the owners dollars, I'd love to have a system that forecasts a players health--so long as the methodology is sound. Will Carroll has many contacts in baseball, and is generally respected by front office executives. He makes a full time living writing a weekly column title "Under the Knife" at Baseball Prospectus, where he analyzes player injuries exclusively. He knows far more about the subject than any of us ever likely will. If you have complaints about the components of the system, that's fine. But to just conclude this is stupid/unnecessary-hogwash seems a bit short sighted to me. Especially if you don't take the time to read the article that outlines how the system works.

There's 12 components to the system. Age is only one of them. You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but backing up your perception with something substantive would make for better discussion, imo.

What is dumb about it. Can you elaborate?

Sanchez, Baker, and Johnson are yellow as well. The formula/components of the system aren't entirely shared--so it's hard to provide a lot of detail. What I do know, though, is that he is a respected expert on baseball-player injuries, so his injury-projections are worth giving some credit to. Here are some details of his system, shared in the articled I linked to in the original post: The base of the system is an actuarial table. You can't get more boring than that, and unfortunately, it's the part I can't share with you. The table is put together by an outside entity, and is... well, let's just say it's very similar to the one used to calculate the premium on insuring player contracts and setting workman's comp payments. Like any actuarial table, it's simply a matter of presenting risk based on various categories. The most basic categories here are age and position; a 26-year-old pitcher could have a 40 percent risk for injury (these aren't the real numbers), while a 32-year-old pitcher might have a 38 percent risk. These injury risks are calculated to account for a severe injury—one that would put a player at risk of passing the elimination period of the policy, which is usually 90 days. The injury risk is also based on a three-year period. For a 29-year-old pitcher, it doesn't care if the pitcher is CC Sabathia or Jeremy Affeldt; it's a baseline risk.

Will Carroll uses a comprehensive system to project injuries based on a players career. You can find some vague detail about the system here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8410 (might be premium/subscriber only) He uses a color code for simplicity: Red = High injury risk Yellow = Moderate injury risk Green = Low injury risk Here is who is red: * Dallas McPhearson * Ricky Nolasco * Chris Volstad Some notable yellows: * Cameron Maybin * Hanley Ramirez * Andrew Miller * Jeremy Hermida Any thoughts?

The Hanley feature story on MLB.com the original poster alluded to.

Any chance you can post a link to the video? I've searched and come up short.

Cantu's stats are way too low. What makes you think he is going to hurt the team this year? He put up great numbers last season and he's just reaching the prime of his career. I also think it's pushing it to say that Cody is one of the best outfielders in the NL. And what's up with the back of the rotation's innings progressively getting lower? I'm guessing they expect both Anibal and maybe one or two more pitchers to get injured during the season. Even if he only pitched an average of five innings per start, his total would still exceed 89 innings by far. Why would they project Volstad to have such a high ERA too? I don't think Cantu's stats are way too low. If you look at his entire career: he's batted .275/.317/.460. PECOTA incorporates all the data (even dating back to his minor league career). The problem with Cantu isn't so much his bat (at least at 3B). But he's one of the worst defensive infielders in all of baseball. If you move him to 1B, his bat becomes below average relative to the rest of the league. If you leave him at 3B, his defense costs more runs than his offense is worth. As for Volstad, I don't know. PECOTA tends to be very conservative with young pitchers since many of them don't ever successfully make the transition to a major league rotation. It definitely takes into account groundball tendencies, and accurately weights them based on their actual run-impact.

J/W but are the comments yours or PECOTA's? I should've made it clear the comments are mine. I'm a big fan of the team, but I tried to be objective with my analysis.

Here is the Wikipedia entry all about the system: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA

PA isn't all about batting order... All Star type players (Uggla, Hanley) don't get very many days off, or don't get subbed out of games often. Where averagish MLB regulars might be late inning subbed-out, defensive subbed-out, or platooned out--over the course of the season. Also, it's worth noting that PECOTA tends to be very conservative with pitchers IP limits. What Nolasco did last season was pretty rare (212 innings out of nowhere). Let's just say there's a good reason for every number you see. And PECOTA is scary accurate. It's a 'formula'/'system', though, and like any system, there's going to be some holes.

Yea. You certainly can't live/die by them, but they provide an educated assumption on what can be expected--based on the players track records. One of my issues with PECOTA is that it doesn't only use the players track records, it uses other players track records as well. While that sounds all good and dandy, it leads to many inaccuracies. That said, it is better than the rest. Other systems use league-average data as a baseline, and regress a players expected production to what is 'average'. PECOTA seperates itself from the rest of the systems out there by finding similar players in the entire history of the game, and using their performance as a baseline for expected performance. It is what makes it the most comprehensive and most precise system in the industry. Anyway...here is some key members of the pitching staff: Ricky Nolasco: 176IP 146K 41BB 3.93ERA Chris Volstad: 173IP 104K 71BB 5.00ERA Josh Johnson: 135IP 120K 47BB 4.10ERA Andrew Miller: 109IP 99K 48BB 4.20ERA Anibal Sanchez: 89IP 75K 39BB 4.25ERA --- Leo Nunez: 44IP 35K 15B 3.64ERA Logan Kensing: 49IP 46K 25B 3.94ERA Matt Lindstrom: 44.3IP 38K 18B 4.08ERA

Yea. You certainly can't live/die by them, but they provide an educated assumption on what can be expected--based on the players track records.

PECOTA is industry gold standard projection system. Here is what some of the key Marlins are projected to look like in 2009: Hanley Ramirez: .318/.399/.548 696 PA 28 HR 36 SB Ballpark Adjusted: .322/.400/.570 - Wow, big numbers. Given his position, he's the best player in the game right now. Bar none. Cameron Maybin: .265/.347/.429 588 PA 15 HR 21 SB Ballpark Adjusted: .268/.348/.447 - Very good numbers for a CF -- as a rookie he's just getting started. It's worth noting that he has a 51% breakout rate, and 72% improve rate (both very high marks that suggest an elite ceiling) Jeremy Hermida: .273/.350/.450 538 PA 17 HR 6 SB Ballpark Adjusted: .276/.351/.468 - We talked about a potential breakout -- PECOTA thinks his ceiling is what's projected here: .800ish OPS. Still, if he matches his projection, he'll be a valuable corner outfielder under Marlins' control at below market. Cody Ross: .272/.343/.497 404 PA 18 HR 6 SB Ballpark Adjusted: .275/.344/.518 - These numbers matched with his outstanding defense make him one of the best outfielders in the National League. Jorge Cantu: .269/.326/.454 583 PA 20 HR Ballpark Adjusted: .272/.327/.472 - It doesn't look like his bat is good enough for 1B, and his glove isn't good enough for 3B. I hope he doesn't get the 583 PA PECOTA projects, or he'd hurt the team. Dan Uggla: .262/.348/.485 638 PA 29 HR 91 RBI Ballpark Adjusted: .265/.349/.505 - Amazing power from 2B. This teams middle infield productivity is the envy of the league. Might even rank with some of the best 2B/SS tandems of all time. Ridiculous middle infield power between Uggla and Hanley

It's going to be amazing watching two of the most dynamic players in baseball in the same lineup for the next 3 years -- at least. With Stanton, Morrison, and Dominguez on the way! I'm pumped.

I'd like the idea of Miller starting the year in AAA, for no other reason, than to suppress his major league service time. Why waste his cheap years taking his lumps in the majors. Let him develop at AAA, and force himself into the Marlins rotation. Marlins Front Office is amazing at evaluating talent, though. If they feel he's ready for the major leagues (going purely based on their track record), then he probably is.

but look at his numbers in RF even going by UZR in 182 innings, he was at -10 in RF in lf, he was at -10 in 980 innings, basically his career norm These numbers are wrong. Where are you getting them from? Fangraphs. And what you're not understand about what I'm saying is that there is a learning curve for playing a new position. Playing RF is not the same as playing LF. Do not take into context his RF playing time last season. Just look at his career LF numbers. That's what matters. Cody Ross Career UZR: LF: + .02 in 306 innings CF: + 6.4 in 1250 innings RF: + 2.0 in 596 innings Judging by his excellent +6.4 career UZR in CF, one can safely assume he'll excel in LF where much less range is required to be outstanding there.