PECOTA is industry gold standard projection system. Here is what some of the key Marlins are projected to look like in 2009:

 

Hanley Ramirez: .318/.399/.548 696 PA 28 HR 36 SB

Ballpark Adjusted: .322/.400/.570

- Wow, big numbers. Given his position, he's the best player in the game right now. Bar none.

 

Cameron Maybin: .265/.347/.429 588 PA 15 HR 21 SB

Ballpark Adjusted: .268/.348/.447

- Very good numbers for a CF -- as a rookie he's just getting started. It's worth noting that he has a 51% breakout rate, and 72% improve rate (both very high marks that suggest an elite ceiling)

 

Jeremy Hermida: .273/.350/.450 538 PA 17 HR 6 SB

Ballpark Adjusted: .276/.351/.468

- We talked about a potential breakout -- PECOTA thinks his ceiling is what's projected here: .800ish OPS. Still, if he matches his projection, he'll be a valuable corner outfielder under Marlins' control at below market.

 

Cody Ross: .272/.343/.497 404 PA 18 HR 6 SB

Ballpark Adjusted: .275/.344/.518

- These numbers matched with his outstanding defense make him one of the best outfielders in the National League.

 

Jorge Cantu: .269/.326/.454 583 PA 20 HR

Ballpark Adjusted: .272/.327/.472

- It doesn't look like his bat is good enough for 1B, and his glove isn't good enough for 3B. I hope he doesn't get the 583 PA PECOTA projects, or he'd hurt the team.

 

Dan Uggla: .262/.348/.485 638 PA 29 HR 91 RBI

Ballpark Adjusted: .265/.349/.505

- Amazing power from 2B. This teams middle infield productivity is the envy of the league. Might even rank with some of the best 2B/SS tandems of all time. Ridiculous middle infield power between Uggla and Hanley

I dislike PECOTA quite a bit, but I dislike all the "projection systems".

Yea. You certainly can't live/die by them, but they provide an educated assumption on what can be expected--based on the players track records.

I certainly wouldn't mind those projections panning out...

 

look out, though... people are going to go nuts about what you said about Cantu...

Yea. You certainly can't live/die by them, but they provide an educated assumption on what can be expected--based on the players track records.

One of my issues with PECOTA is that it doesn't only use the players track records, it uses other players track records as well. While that sounds all good and dandy, it leads to many inaccuracies.

 

That said, it is better than the rest.

I'd be surprised if none of our boys hit 30HR next year. And only 21 SB for Maybin seems a bit low doesn't it?

Yea. You certainly can't live/die by them, but they provide an educated assumption on what can be expected--based on the players track records.

One of my issues with PECOTA is that it doesn't only use the players track records, it uses other players track records as well. While that sounds all good and dandy, it leads to many inaccuracies.

 

That said, it is better than the rest.

 

Other systems use league-average data as a baseline, and regress a players expected production to what is 'average'. PECOTA seperates itself from the rest of the systems out there by finding similar players in the entire history of the game, and using their performance as a baseline for expected performance. It is what makes it the most comprehensive and most precise system in the industry.

 

Anyway...here is some key members of the pitching staff:

 

Ricky Nolasco: 176IP 146K 41BB 3.93ERA

 

Chris Volstad: 173IP 104K 71BB 5.00ERA

 

Josh Johnson: 135IP 120K 47BB 4.10ERA

 

Andrew Miller: 109IP 99K 48BB 4.20ERA

 

Anibal Sanchez: 89IP 75K 39BB 4.25ERA

 

---

 

Leo Nunez: 44IP 35K 15B 3.64ERA

 

Logan Kensing: 49IP 46K 25B 3.94ERA

 

Matt Lindstrom: 44.3IP 38K 18B 4.08ERA

Im ok with the Hitting projection but the pitchers seem kinda whacky.

Im ok with the Hitting projection but the pitchers seem kinda whacky.

 

 

I agree, why does Anibal have such limited innings?

 

Also with the hitting stats

 

How does Uggla get more PA then Cantu and Maybin when he'll hit probably after them and John Baker isin't even there?

 

I don't know where to start with Cantu's stats.

Whatever its only a projection though these really don't come close to what the players actually hit.

Im ok with the Hitting projection but the pitchers seem kinda whacky.

 

 

I agree, why does Anibal have such limited innings?

 

Also with the hitting stats

 

How does Uggla get more PA then Cantu and Maybin when he'll hit probably after them and John Baker isin't even there?

 

I don't know where to start with Cantu's stats.

Whatever its only a projection though these really don't come close to what the players actually hit.

 

 

 

Probably based off some of last years outings where he only made it to the 6th if that.

PA isn't all about batting order...

 

All Star type players (Uggla, Hanley) don't get very many days off, or don't get subbed out of games often. Where averagish MLB regulars might be late inning subbed-out, defensive subbed-out, or platooned out--over the course of the season.

 

Also, it's worth noting that PECOTA tends to be very conservative with pitchers IP limits. What Nolasco did last season was pretty rare (212 innings out of nowhere).

 

Let's just say there's a good reason for every number you see. And PECOTA is scary accurate. It's a 'formula'/'system', though, and like any system, there's going to be some holes.

Oh probably but still a minimum of 20 Starts with at least 5 innings in each start is 100 IP and he'll probably get 20-30 starts and should go into the 6th or 7th in a few of them

J/W but are the comments yours or PECOTA's?

Here is the Wikipedia entry all about the system: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA

J/W but are the comments yours or PECOTA's?

 

I should've made it clear the comments are mine. I'm a big fan of the team, but I tried to be objective with my analysis.

There is absolutely no way Volstad would have an ERA as high as 5 if he near enough completed a full season as a starter (173 innings)

 

4.20 ERA is the worst case scenario for him IMO

Cantu's stats are way too low. What makes you think he is going to hurt the team this year? He put up great numbers last season and he's just reaching the prime of his career. I also think it's pushing it to say that Cody is one of the best outfielders in the NL.

 

And what's up with the back of the rotation's innings progressively getting lower? I'm guessing they expect both Anibal and maybe one or two more pitchers to get injured during the season. Even if he only pitched an average of five innings per start, his total would still exceed 89 innings by far. Why would they project Volstad to have such a high ERA too?

The issue with Volstad (IIRC) is that PECOTA has a hard time with GB pitchers because of high contact/low K rates. You can take that into consideration with Volstad and assume it's definitely off, if I'm remembering properly.

Cantu's stats are way too low. What makes you think he is going to hurt the team this year? He put up great numbers last season and he's just reaching the prime of his career. I also think it's pushing it to say that Cody is one of the best outfielders in the NL.

 

And what's up with the back of the rotation's innings progressively getting lower? I'm guessing they expect both Anibal and maybe one or two more pitchers to get injured during the season. Even if he only pitched an average of five innings per start, his total would still exceed 89 innings by far. Why would they project Volstad to have such a high ERA too?

 

I don't think Cantu's stats are way too low. If you look at his entire career: he's batted .275/.317/.460. PECOTA incorporates all the data (even dating back to his minor league career).

 

The problem with Cantu isn't so much his bat (at least at 3B). But he's one of the worst defensive infielders in all of baseball. If you move him to 1B, his bat becomes below average relative to the rest of the league. If you leave him at 3B, his defense costs more runs than his offense is worth.

 

As for Volstad, I don't know. PECOTA tends to be very conservative with young pitchers since many of them don't ever successfully make the transition to a major league rotation. It definitely takes into account groundball tendencies, and accurately weights them based on their actual run-impact.

Cantu's stats are way too low. What makes you think he is going to hurt the team this year? He put up great numbers last season and he's just reaching the prime of his career. I also think it's pushing it to say that Cody is one of the best outfielders in the NL.

 

And what's up with the back of the rotation's innings progressively getting lower? I'm guessing they expect both Anibal and maybe one or two more pitchers to get injured during the season. Even if he only pitched an average of five innings per start, his total would still exceed 89 innings by far. Why would they project Volstad to have such a high ERA too?

 

I don't think Cantu's stats are way too low. If you look at his entire career: he's batted .275/.317/.460. PECOTA incorporates all the data (even dating back to his minor league career).

 

The problem with Cantu isn't so much his bat (at least at 3B). But he's one of the worst defensive infielders in all of baseball. If you move him to 1B, his bat becomes below average relative to the rest of the league. If you leave him at 3B, his defense costs more runs than his offense is worth.

 

As for Volstad, I don't know. PECOTA tends to be very conservative with young pitchers since many of them don't ever successfully make the transition to a major league rotation. It definitely takes into account groundball tendencies, and accurately weights them based on their actual run-impact.

 

This is why if we had any chance to get a Jonathan Sanchez type, even if we had to throw in another MiLB arm (not West/Thompson/Ceda/Tucker though) we should have jumped on it. And this is also why I think SF allegedly backed away from the deal. I love Cantu, but he's not spectacular, and if he regresses to the mean without improving his defense, he'll be fortunate to be considered even slightly above-average as far as corner IF's are concerned.

eh, there's a reason they are called projections. Some are way too low. Some are way too high. We'll see come March. We have a pretty good starting lineup with a nice mix of speed and power...and jeremy hermida :thumbdown

 

Overall, the only stat that matters to me is the W column, and as long as those W's equal up to an X or Y next to our team come to end of the season, I am happy.

Here's what PECOTA does: it takes the last three years worth of stats that a given player has had, finds players throughout baseball history who have had similar statistics over a three-year stretch at the same age, and then tries to predict what will happen in 2009 for today's player based upon what happened to all of those players in the past in the year after that three year stretch.

 

You can see why this would cause problems for the Marlins players. Many of them - Cantu, Nolasco, Anibal for example - have had at least one lost season in the past three years. PECOTA is going to find many disfavorable comparative players who have had a three year stretch like they have had, and that will bring down their projections. Then again, PECOTA's skepticism just goes to show how difficult the things that we take for granted (i.e, Anibal's return to no-hitter form) really are.

Cantu's stats are way too low. What makes you think he is going to hurt the team this year? He put up great numbers last season and he's just reaching the prime of his career. I also think it's pushing it to say that Cody is one of the best outfielders in the NL.

 

And what's up with the back of the rotation's innings progressively getting lower? I'm guessing they expect both Anibal and maybe one or two more pitchers to get injured during the season. Even if he only pitched an average of five innings per start, his total would still exceed 89 innings by far. Why would they project Volstad to have such a high ERA too?

 

I don't think Cantu's stats are way too low. If you look at his entire career: he's batted .275/.317/.460. PECOTA incorporates all the data (even dating back to his minor league career).

 

The problem with Cantu isn't so much his bat (at least at 3B). But he's one of the worst defensive infielders in all of baseball. If you move him to 1B, his bat becomes below average relative to the rest of the league. If you leave him at 3B, his defense costs more runs than his offense is worth.

 

As for Volstad, I don't know. PECOTA tends to be very conservative with young pitchers since many of them don't ever successfully make the transition to a major league rotation. It definitely takes into account groundball tendencies, and accurately weights them based on their actual run-impact.

 

 

It doesn't work that way. It doesn't matter what the average first baseman does or what the average third baseman does, it matters what Cantu does. When he plays 3B, he has a decent bat and a below average glove. When he plays 1B, he still hits the same, except his defense improves. Thus, he is a better first baseman than third baseman. Also, when you try to predict how good a player will perform the next season, it's usually best to use the most recent stats, where Cantu batted .277/.327/.481.

 

As for Volstad, yes, many young pitchers tend to struggle early in their career, but when a kid that played half of last season and han a 2.88 ERA, it's hard to say that it will be raise by over two runs.

It doesn't work that way. It doesn't matter what the average first baseman does or what the average third baseman does, it matters what Cantu does. When he plays 3B, he has a decent bat and a below average glove. When he plays 1B, he still hits the same, except his defense improves. Thus, he is a better first baseman than third baseman. Also, when you try to predict how good a player will perform the next season, it's usually best to use the most recent stats, where Cantu batted .277/.327/.481.

 

As for Volstad, yes, many young pitchers tend to struggle early in their career, but when a kid that played half of last season and han a 2.88 ERA, it's hard to say that it will be raise by over two runs.

 

If you can find a 1B making the minimum who can do what Cantu does, then that makes Cantu decidedly less valuable, since that means you can turn and spend that money on a 3B who can do more than him.

I'm sure that PECOTA is assuming the same type of sophomore slump for Volstad that we've seen with guys like Vargas. I think Volstad is much better than that though and should at least have an ERA in the low 4's.