lee will eventually be better...

Haven't seen it so far, until Lee does anything near Conine (All Star MVP, good career numbers) he will never catch Conine. Lee is no longer young, he has what, 5 years of service? Conine has 10 years. Lee hasn't performed, simple as that.

This statement here (for anyone with a rudimentary understand in statistics) should give some of you doubters at least something to consider...

 

I posted a previous article on my clutch study; I have now re-done it,

with everything properly weighted. The basic conclusion didn't change;

I still don't have evidence that clutch hitters exist, and if they do,

they cannot be very important.

 

I have 245 player-seasons to work with: every player who had at least

250 AB in the late innings of close games before the year in question

(either 1991 or 1992), and was listed as a regular in the Great American

Baseball Stat Book in that year.

 

The correlation between past and current clutch performance is .01, with

a standard deviation of .07. In other words, there isn't a significant

ability in clutch hitting; if there were, the same players would be good

clutch hitters every year.

 

 

For those who arnt familiar with statisitics...standard deviation is the measure of spread around an average or mean. So if the number is high then values being used are very far apart in value. Correlation is easier to understand. All it means is the relationship between two variables. So a low correlation, which the guy in the study came up with, indicates there is a low probability that a clutch hitter one year will be clutch the next...a 10% chance actually. I welcome all reasonable arguments, but please no name calling or saying I havnt played baseball. Ill photograph my ring if I have to :plain

 

Sham, great post. And while I see value in your position, fifty years of playing the game (I was out there for two hours this morning with my nine year old as I try to pass along all that is good about the game) and watching it played by other far superior to myself tells me there certain players who do perform better than others under pressure, day after day, year after year.

 

I'm sure you can make a statistical case that having a game on the line had nothing to do with the performance of a Musial or a Rose at the plate or Ozzie making a wonderous play at shortstop with the game on the line. Statistics don't lie, but sometimes it depends on how the question is constructed.

 

A half century of watching baseball tells me there are certain guys who you want at the plate in certain situations. Your great post aside, I'll go to my grave believing that.

Ok, im going to try the Socratic method on you cape...First we need to start talking in terms of OPS and not batting avg. (and eventually not rbi's) We do this because OPS gives a higher weight to hits like homeruns and doulbles where batting average weighs all these things the same. Second it includes walks which gives an indication of a players playe discipline which is very important. Can we agree OPS is a more vaulauble stat to evaluate a hitter then batting average?

The numbers in high pressure situations and with men on base tell the story. Conine is better than Lee. Numbers don't lie!

from that statement there is no reason to even try and reason with you. You are beyond repair. Maybe ill try next time on someone with an open mind and some sense.

Mr. Beinfest, bring on Conine.

But we won't...it will be a straight up trade, Lee for Conine. Seems like everyone else is against this trade from the Marlins standpoint except you guys. Because so many of you have such a deep-rooted bias against Lee. Most of the baseball world respects him as a GG defender and a good power hitter with a high ceiling yet to be achieved. Even if we cant sign him, why downgrade when your trying to make a run? Unless you dont think we can make it?

I am also against this trade. We don't have to trade DLee now that he is producing, and we also keep his defense, which makes up for his lack of hitting sometimes. Now, if we were to trade for Ponson or Lightenberg, then by all means do it. Conine doesn't seem too happy about the idea of being traded back to Florida and that might disturb this team's chemistry. However, I would still like adding a veteran bat.

LOL! Thanks Marlins2003! (glad you play with your kid!) Its very true that people manipulate statistics in many ways to their advantage, but I believe this study was as neutral as it can get. The experimenter had no bias or govnt breathing down his neck to come to a certain conclusion. And dont be confused by my heavy reliance on statistics here...baseball is a game I love with a great passion...watching Pierre make a diving grab or Lowell slug one out of the park gives me goosebumps like any other fan.

 

You want your best hitter period at the plate...not someone who is considered "clutch."

Lee choking in key at bats is bad for this team's chemistry. The team wants to win, Conine will help us win, that is the best type of chemistry.

Mr. Beinfest, bring on Conine.

So you refuse to argue logically with me? Thats fine I expected it....answer my post about OPS and then we can continue the debate.

So you refuse to argue logically with me? Thats fine I expected it....answer my post about OPS and then we can continue the debate.

:thumbdown OPS is not as good as the stats I posted with different pressure situations.

 

Lee hasn't performed in high pressure situations, Conine has. When you are competing, every game has a high pressure situation, those who get the hit win.

 

BTW, OPS is throughout the game, a double in the first counts, even if no one is on base. It is too vague.

JEFF CONINE FOR DERREK LEE IS NOT A DOWNGRADE :blink:

 

Jeff Conine. .293 13 HR's 63 RBI's

 

Derrek Lee .260 17 HR's 49 RBI's

 

Jeff Conine will not only bring clutch hitting and consistent hitting, he'll also bring out enthusiatic fans that jumped off the bandwagon from the 97' season

Yeah, right!!! The same way that signing CJ brought a lot of former fans to the seats, right? We would be trading a great defensive 1st basemen who is at his prime for the 37 and up years-old version of Conine, a fan favorite 6 years ago... Don't make me laugh! As much as I would like to have Conine leadership back, I would hate lo loose DLee in order to get him. :banghead

I'm sorry, but I have to like this trade. I don't know how you can be against this...

If you are not convinced that Conine is better than Lee, then look at the stats I posted earlier in this thread with different pressure and on base situations. Lee only beats Conine when there is no one on base. Conines wins every other category. Lee cannot do well under pressure.

:thumbdown OPS is not as good as the stats I posted with different pressure situations.

 

Lee hasn't performed in high pressure situations, Conine has. When you are competing, every game has a high pressure situation, those who get the hit win.

 

BTW, OPS is throughout the game, a double in the first counts, even if no one is on base. It is too vague.

You can use OPS in all those supposed situational categories as well...

Yeah, right!!! The same way that signing CJ brought a lot of former fans to the seats, right? We would be trading a great defensive 1st basemen who is at his prime for the 37 and up years-old version of Conine, a fan favorite 6 years ago... Don't make me laugh! As much as I would like to have Conine leadership back, I would hate lo loose DLee in order to get him. :banghead

CJ isn't Conine.

 

And we had to pay for CJ, we don't have to pay for Jeff...

On Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage (OPS)

 

Add the on-base percentage and slugging percentage, treating both numbers as integers. For example, if Barry Bonds has a .419 on-base percentage and a .585 slugging percentage, his OPS is 1.003 (.419+.585).

 

VS.

 

Late Inning Pressure Situations (LIPS)

 

The batter's batting average in Late Inning Pressure Situations, which is any at-bat in the seventh inning or later, with the batting team either leading by one run, tied, or has the potential tying run on base, at bat, or on deck.

Also you are using such a small sample size of AB's your conclusions prove nothing. I cant seem to find career situational hitting statistics anywhere. Any luck finding those?

is somebody from this board on the radio defending Lee? bastards (j/k)

Most games are decided in the Late Innings, with High Pressure at bats.

Anyway, Jeff, you're right. People perform in the clutch every day, and in many capacities. What happens to people who perform well under pressure in their jobs? Right, they tend to be promoted, and then promoted again.

 

What are major league baseball players? Essentially, they're athletes who have been promoted as far as they can be promoted. There is no higher league. You know what I think? I think that in the great majority of cases, baseball players who can't handle pressure simply don't reach the major leagues. Those guys get weeded out on the way up, because in essence every professional at-bat is a "pressure situation." Wouldn't you agree that standing at home plate with thousands of eyes watching, and a behemoth throwing a baseball 95 miles an hour at you from 60 feet away, is a "pressure situation"?

 

 

from rob neyer.

now i know someone from this board was on. advocating for Palmeiro. only one other place ive heard that. the dude on the radio ate him up pretty good on that question of how long the caller thinks Palmeiro has left