Posted September 6, 200519 yr This one has potential. It's moving very very slowly, and it's supposed to skim the eastern coast of Florida for the next 3 days, before moving onshore somewhere in North Florida.... As if there weren't enough problems...I'm not expert, so I'd like Prez or Cape to comment on the possibilities, please. http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/t...00516_5day.html
September 6, 200519 yr Author http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical...m=wxcenter_news Tropical storm warnings from Titusville to Jupiter. Also for Grand Bahama, Bimini and Abacos.
September 6, 200519 yr Author Pressure remains the same, but reports of 40 MPH gusts suggest this tropical system will be Ophelia by the 8 pm advisory. It is now moving "nearly stationary", and its projected course has shifted a bit to the south. I understand this is premature concern, but from what I see of the forecast, the eye of the storm will remain offshore for the better part of the next 3 days. The eastern side of the storm will strengthen, and the winds will easily pick up in the next day or so. My bold prediction: If this storm remains on track. it will be a minimal hurricane by tomorrow evening. However, considering how close it is to the coastline, any shift in the path and it will hit land before getting a chance to strengthen. We shall see...
September 6, 200519 yr My bold prediction: It becomes the first storm to directly hit Jacksonville in years. Possibly as a strong hurricane.
September 6, 200519 yr Author My bold prediction: It becomes the first storm to directly hit Jacksonville in years. Possibly as a strong hurricane. 932380[/snapback] ---bad at geography. Is Jax in central northern florida, or more toward the coast? My worst fear is that this thing (if it stabilizes), will reemerge off the panhandle in the Gulf...and reform itself just enough to hit New Orleans. It reminds me of Ivan a bit...just more to the East, obviously.
September 6, 200519 yr Haha, is easter even a word? And Jacksonville is the north Florida coast. :plain No where close to Central Florida.
September 6, 200519 yr Author Haha, is easter even a word? And Jacksonville is the north Florida coast. :plain No where close to Central Florida. 932396[/snapback] Easter was a spelling mistake And I meant the middle of northern florida...I worded it incorrectly.
September 7, 200519 yr Author Pressure remains 1008 millibars...but winds have increased 5 MPH. Direction has changed slightly, and future track now has the storm hitting north coast of florida on Saturday, and then moving due west toward the peninsula.... Could be bad. It's going to have plenty of time to strengthen.
September 7, 200519 yr Pressure remains 1008 millibars...but winds have increased 5 MPH. Direction has changed slightly, and future track now has the storm hitting north coast of florida on Saturday, and then moving due west toward the peninsula.... Could be bad. It's going to have plenty of time to strengthen. 933220[/snapback] Lefty do you have a link to all the projected paths? Gainesville looks like a likely target. :confused I just hope it turns way north before it thinks of getting close to the Gulf region.
September 7, 200519 yr Author Pressure remains 1008 millibars...but winds have increased 5 MPH. Direction has changed slightly, and future track now has the storm hitting north coast of florida on Saturday, and then moving due west toward the peninsula.... Could be bad. It's going to have plenty of time to strengthen. 933220[/snapback] Lefty do you have a link to all the projected paths? Gainesville looks like a likely target. :confused I just hope it turns way north before it thinks of getting close to the Gulf region. 933249[/snapback] I don't have the spray model, but I'm looking for it right now. Cape or Prez probably have one on their site...? It's still too early to tell where it will hit. It appears that there is a front which will push it West....The front will come through sometime Saturday, so it really depends how long the storm stalls before it turns to the West. I really think at this point, it's likely to strenghten to Tropical Storm within the next two advisories, and will hit land as a minimal hurricane (possibly major if it stays off land for long enough)
September 7, 200519 yr Author NOAA thinks it will remain a TS and dissipate into a depression once it hits land....It looks like it will make landfall right on Jacksonville.... Hopefully it won't strengthen, but it has the time, and some warm water (thought not as warm as the Gulf or Caribbean)
September 7, 200519 yr Author Pressure has dropped 5 millibars to 1003, and winds have increased to 40 MPH. Movement has quickened a bit, to 5 MPH. Ophelia is headed on a NNW course and is expected to make a sharp turn to the West after making landfall. The present course has it sweeping across Northern Florida, passing through Jacksonville, then just north of Gainesville, and into the panhandle. The storm is quietly growing right on our front porch, and is poised to strengthen. I believe if it stays on present course, it may reach hurricane status. That's all for tonight. See you manana!
September 7, 200519 yr Author Well, now all bets are off. The storm looks to stall right off the coast, and hang around for a few days before deciding which way to go.
September 7, 200519 yr Author Winds have increased to 50 MPH (gusts 65). Pressure has dropped another 3 millibars, signifying strenghtening. The storm is heading NNW at this time, but is expected to stall on Sunday, and remain just offshore until at least Monday or Tuesday. This is definitely starting to look like Hurricane Jeanne. It may take a roundabout course, drift a bit to the east, and then come back West toward the coast. Definitely keep an eye on this storm. It is going to have a while to get bigger and stronger.
September 7, 200519 yr Well, at least it's not going to hit Miami. *waits for it to loop back around.
September 7, 200519 yr Brian Norcross said at the 5pm news that not to worry about this one hitting us down south. Then he added, "I think, because you never say never." So yea, nobody panic but just keep an eye on it.
September 7, 200519 yr Author Visible Infrared And this one looks like all forecasts have it coming back around to hit Florida, ala Jeanne from last year
September 7, 200519 yr Author Thats visible, not water vapor. :thumbup 933883[/snapback] Um, nice of you to drop by.... No "thanks Lefty for keeping everyone informed." or "way to go Lefty. Now I can take over again with the storm info" Noooo, you had to insult my hurricane ineptitude!!
September 8, 200519 yr Thats visible, not water vapor. :thumbup 933883[/snapback] Um, nice of you to drop by.... No "thanks Lefty for keeping everyone informed." or "way to go Lefty. Now I can take over again with the storm info" Noooo, you had to insult my hurricane ineptitude!! 933886[/snapback] :mischief Well, I had to point it out. Water Vapor is distinctly different and should not be used to describe visible. Its misleading. Water vapor shows the moisture in the air, visible is self explanatory. :whistle
September 8, 200519 yr Author Pressure continues to drop. Now at 994 millibars. I'm surprised the winds haven't picked up yet.
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