February 20, 200620 yr Fact Although I want them to do well, if I was betting I would say they finish last. The two worst teams in the NL last year had 67 wins (the over under for the marlins in las vegas is 67). Realistically with the team they have I can't see them winning 70 games, and I believe they will be the worst in the NL.
February 20, 200620 yr Fiction, the Nationals will. Exactly, especially the way Mr. Bowden keeps making trades for the sake of making trades so it looks like he's doing something.
February 20, 200620 yr Fiction, they won't be the worst in the NL or MLB, but they'll probably finish last in the East
February 20, 200620 yr Fiction, we're still better than the Rockies, probably at least on par with the Nationals and I think what many are overlooking is that while we traded away a lot of our team, we didn't trade away completely irreplaceable production (look at the numbers from the '05 team, you'll be shocked). 1-8, we upgraded the offense, it's just whether or not Willis is going to pitch like it's 2005 or 2004 and if Olsen and Johnson can make us forget a little about Beckett and Burnett (combined 27 wins).
February 20, 200620 yr We might be able to take the Rockies. That's about it. Going into the season, these are two of the worst looking teams I can remember. If you combined these two starting rotations, taking the best from each, you'd probably still have one of the 5 worst in the league.
February 20, 200620 yr We might be able to take the Rockies. That's about it. Going into the season, these are two of the worst looking teams I can remember. If you combined these two starting rotations, taking the best from each, you'd probably still have one of the 5 worst in the league. No way, the Marlins on their own don't even have the worst 5 in the league assuming Olsen and Johnson make it. Cincinnati is returning a group of guys where everyone finished with a losing record, and the two pitchers that won double digit games last season (Harang, Claussen) also lost double digit games. Put Jeff Francis on this team and I'll say we have the second best rotation in the division.
February 21, 200620 yr I'm personally more worried about the bullpen than the rotation i actually feel at ease about the bullpen...other than jones last year the pen was garbage...but with resop and messenger getting valuable time last year...i feel it will be much improved...but i think the improvement will take place later in the year with some initial growing pains...but if we can keep this group together for another year or 2...i would predict a great bullpen by 08
February 21, 200620 yr I'm personally more worried about the bullpen than the rotation Again, it's not like the bullpen did anything great last year, outside of Jones. Borowski could be decent, Bowyer has a live arm and Resop and Messenger are what they are (and probably better than last year). Add to that that Perisho and Mota played large roles in the bullpen last year during various parts of the season and you'll see why I don't think it'll be any worse or better. The season will come down to three players: Willis, Olsen, Johnson.
February 21, 200620 yr We might be able to take the Rockies. That's about it. Going into the season, these are two of the worst looking teams I can remember. If you combined these two starting rotations, taking the best from each, you'd probably still have one of the 5 worst in the league. No way, the Marlins on their own don't even have the worst 5 in the league assuming Olsen and Johnson make it. Cincinnati is returning a group of guys where everyone finished with a losing record, and the two pitchers that won double digit games last season (Harang, Claussen) also lost double digit games. Put Jeff Francis on this team and I'll say we have the second best rotation in the division. I'm sorry, but you just disagreed with me by naming two minor leaguers who just turned 22 and have about 30 combined innings of major league experience. These guys will probably have their moments, but if history is any indication they're probably going to get knocked around quite a bit. Even the best take their lumps when they first come up. Probably the best 3 pitchers of the last 25 years are Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Maddux. Here are their ERAs in their first seasons with 20+ starts: Clemens - 4.32 Maddux - 5.61 Johnson - 4.82 Don't confuse potential with results. Unless you think these Marlins pitchers are better than those future HOFers...to expect anything better than a 4.50 ERA from these guys is probably wishful thinking. And you can lump Vargas in with that lot, too. These guys are young and inexperienced, and to make matters worse they are surrounded by youth and inexperience from the top on down. The bullpen can't get much worse. It was the 2nd worst in the NL last year. Par for the course is still pretty damn awful. I think we can expect a slight improvement in the pen. If I'm wrong, God help us.
February 21, 200620 yr What difference does it make if we finish with the worst record, 2nd worst, 5th worst, or 8th worst. This isn't a year to look for total wins by the team. It's a year to look for individual success and progress.
February 21, 200620 yr We might be able to take the Rockies. That's about it. Going into the season, these are two of the worst looking teams I can remember. If you combined these two starting rotations, taking the best from each, you'd probably still have one of the 5 worst in the league. No way, the Marlins on their own don't even have the worst 5 in the league assuming Olsen and Johnson make it. Cincinnati is returning a group of guys where everyone finished with a losing record, and the two pitchers that won double digit games last season (Harang, Claussen) also lost double digit games. Put Jeff Francis on this team and I'll say we have the second best rotation in the division. I'm sorry, but you just disagreed with me by naming two minor leaguers who just turned 22 and have about 30 combined innings of major league experience. These guys will probably have their moments, but if history is any indication they're probably going to get knocked around quite a bit. Even the best take their lumps when they first come up. Probably the best 3 pitchers of the last 25 years are Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Maddux. Here are their ERAs in their first seasons with 20+ starts: Clemens - 4.32 Maddux - 5.61 Johnson - 4.82 Don't confuse potential with results. Unless you think these Marlins pitchers are better than those future HOFers...to expect anything better than a 4.50 ERA from these guys is probably wishful thinking. And you can lump Vargas in with that lot, too. These guys are young and inexperienced, and to make matters worse they are surrounded by youth and inexperience from the top on down. I never said they'd be the best rotation in baseball, the league or even the division, but even if Olsen and Johnson finish with ERA's in the high 4's, that's still better than 3/5 of the Reds' rotation; which is all my original point was, that we're hardly the worst rotation in baseball or the league.
February 21, 200620 yr I never said they'd be the best rotation in baseball, the league or even the division, but even if Olsen and Johnson finish with ERA's in the high 4's, that's still better than 3/5 of the Reds' rotation; which is all my original point was, that we're hardly the worst rotation in baseball or the league. We're bottom 5.
February 21, 200620 yr We might be able to take the Rockies. That's about it. Going into the season, these are two of the worst looking teams I can remember. If you combined these two starting rotations, taking the best from each, you'd probably still have one of the 5 worst in the league. No way, the Marlins on their own don't even have the worst 5 in the league assuming Olsen and Johnson make it. Cincinnati is returning a group of guys where everyone finished with a losing record, and the two pitchers that won double digit games last season (Harang, Claussen) also lost double digit games. Put Jeff Francis on this team and I'll say we have the second best rotation in the division. I'm sorry, but you just disagreed with me by naming two minor leaguers who just turned 22 and have about 30 combined innings of major league experience. These guys will probably have their moments, but if history is any indication they're probably going to get knocked around quite a bit. Even the best take their lumps when they first come up. Probably the best 3 pitchers of the last 25 years are Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Maddux. Here are their ERAs in their first seasons with 20+ starts: Clemens - 4.32 Maddux - 5.61 Johnson - 4.82 Don't confuse potential with results. Unless you think these Marlins pitchers are better than those future HOFers...to expect anything better than a 4.50 ERA from these guys is probably wishful thinking. And you can lump Vargas in with that lot, too. These guys are young and inexperienced, and to make matters worse they are surrounded by youth and inexperience from the top on down. The bullpen can't get much worse. It was the 2nd worst in the NL last year. Par for the course is still pretty damn awful. I think we can expect a slight improvement in the pen. If I'm wrong, God help us. Totally right. However, pitchers are often very unpredictable. Willis outperformed those three you mentioned. Josh Beckett did too (not by much though). So it does happen.
February 21, 200620 yr I never said they'd be the best rotation in baseball, the league or even the division, but even if Olsen and Johnson finish with ERA's in the high 4's, that's still better than 3/5 of the Reds' rotation; which is all my original point was, that we're hardly the worst rotation in baseball or the league. We're bottom 5. Right now? Absolutely, but hardly the worst.
February 21, 200620 yr FACT. We lack experience, and we are developing in every aspect of the game. The Nationals will run circles around us, who are we kidding. Be patient, WE ARE REBUILDING!!
February 21, 200620 yr Totally right. However, pitchers are often very unpredictable. Willis outperformed those three you mentioned. Josh Beckett did too (not by much though). So it does happen. For sure. And to be honest, if I could make a bet right now that one of those guys will finish with an ERA in the low 4's, I'd take it. I mean, if any of those guys runs out there and puts up a 4.20, it will widely be considered a success...and odds are pretty good that at least one of them will do that. Just like the odds are good that one of them will completely blow up and be out of the majors by season's end. We'll just have to wait and see.
February 21, 200620 yr Totally right. However, pitchers are often very unpredictable. Willis outperformed those three you mentioned. Josh Beckett did too (not by much though). So it does happen. For sure. And to be honest, if I could make a bet right now that one of those guys will finish with an ERA in the low 4's, I'd take it. I mean, if any of those guys runs out there and puts up a 4.20, it will widely be considered a success...and odds are pretty good that at least one of them will do that. Just like the odds are good that one of them will completely blow up and be out of the majors by season's end. We'll just have to wait and see. Yup, I totally agree. One of these rookies will surprise us. I'm betting Petit does. on paper, sure... too bad paper means sh*t :thumbup
February 21, 200620 yr my bold prediction is that the muts will have a worse starting ERA than the marlins...actually...now that i think about it...its not bold at all...especially is pedro goes down with an injury...which is def within the realm of possibility
February 21, 200620 yr Author With the exception of Willis, its is almost impossible to predict the era's for the pitchers with no MLB experience. That is why I said fact that we would finish with the worst record. I am sure they could be good this year and most likely they will be good in the future, however there is a good chance that they get lit up this year.
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