That seems like a decently fair analysis. I'll hold out final judgement on his defense until we see him out there, but I do suspect it isn't very good at all with little chance of developing into ML average. I see his ceiling as providing us with a cheap, young, fiery Damion Easely off the bench. I still hope, of course that he morphs into an average 2B for us. Damn do we need that.

I assume Lou, you've seen him play and you're not going by one review of the guy, from the drunkards (by their own admission) at BP. Only kidding

 

Here's what's confusing to me, and I'm not asking this rhetorically. How can he be the Southern League second base (and utility player) end of season all-star and suck so badly? Either the other nine starting second baseman (nevermind utility players) in the league are just awful, which is hard to believe, I mean, there has to be one decent second baseman (better than him) in the best minor league in baseball doesn't there?

 

Take a look at the company he's keeping on the list of league all-stars. That's pretty good company (talking about position players). From Russell Martin to Hermida, Murton, Guzman, Delmon Young, etc., virtually every guy on the list looks to have a future in major league ball. So, I say to myself, it can't be that he's THAT bad.

 

I admit, and my dear friend the Shamster will attest, I'm old school. To me all this fancy stat stuff takes a distant second to onfield play, desire and dare I use the phrase so hated by statheads - clutch hitting and play. I don't subscribe to this nonsense that you can determine a player's value by simply plugging in some numbers and analyzing them.

 

The problem with stats (at least for me) is they don't take into account anything but numbers and statisticians haven't been able to quantify intangibles, and probably never will.

 

At this point it's only fair I admit I haven't seen Uggla (or most of these kids) field one ball, nevermind seen them play night in, night out. That's why I try to stay clear of predictions, whether they be starting lineups or pitching rotations or how many HRs some guy will hit this season.

 

Will Uggla succeed? I honestly don't know, but he seems to have accomplished some pretty good credentials so far. I'm willing to see how things play themselves out before I say the kid will be great, or he sucks.

I assume Lou, you've seen him play and you're not going by one review of the guy, from the drunkards (by their own admission) at BP. Only kidding

 

Here's what's confusing to me, and I'm not asking this rhetorically. How can he be the Southern League second base (and utility player) end of season all-star and suck so badly? Either the other nine starting second baseman (nevermind utility players) in the league are just awful, which is hard to believe, I mean, there has to be one decent second baseman (better than him) in the best minor league in baseball doesn't there?

 

Take a look at the company he's keeping on the list of league all-stars. That's pretty good company (talking about position players). From Russell Martin to Hermida, Murton, Guzman, Delmon Young, etc., virtually every guy on the list looks to have a future in major league ball. So, I say to myself, it can't be that he's THAT bad.

 

I admit, and my dear friend the Shamster will attest, I'm old school. To me all this fancy stat stuff takes a distant second to onfield play, desire and dare I use the phrase so hated by statheads - clutch hitting and play. I don't subscribe to this nonsense that you can determine a player's value by simply plugging in some numbers and analyzing them.

 

The problem with stats (at least for me) is they don't take into account anything but numbers and statisticians haven't been able to quantify intangibles, and probably never will.

 

At this point it's only fair I admit I haven't seen Uggla (or most of these kids) field one ball, nevermind seen them play night in, night out. That's why I try to stay clear of predictions, whether they be starting lineups or pitching rotations or how many HRs some guy will hit this season.

 

Will Uggla succeed? I honestly don't know, but he seems to have accomplished some pretty good credentials so far. I'm willing to see how things play themselves out before I say the kid will be great, or he sucks.

 

 

I'm definitely new school hardcore saber. I've looked at it enough to see players typically 'just don't happen." Their certainly are outliers to the whole statistics analysis, but for the most part you can paint a pretty honest picture of how good a ball player is going to be. I can't argue with you if you want to wait and see him play over the course of a month because that's your style, but I think throwing around "double aa all-star" and other phrases in describing him is creating false hype as to who Dan Uggla is. This isn't a 21-22 year old kid like Hermida, or Russel Martin, or Delmon who is mashing. If Uggla was 22-23, I'd be THRILLED with this acquistion, but he is 26 opening day. That matters a lot when we are projecting ceilings. He's been around forever. He doesn't really have that much room to improve this late in the game, and he has multiple major weaknesses. I just don't think he has a ceiling beyond a marginal bench player. But we'll see. He'll get 300+ AB even if he sucks this year. He's got an opportunity most players of his pedigree never receive.

 

To anticipate responses, I realize this age, high K rate, and poor defense criticism is hypocritical because we also have an older guy in Willingham (that I love) that displays these same weaknesses, but Josh is going to walk his ass off, which is something Uggla won't do, and hit for a lot of power when he does connect with a pitch. He's also been doing it at higher levels in the minors, for a longer amount of time. His bat will be productive enough to play a corner if it turns out he can't catch, and for that reason, I like Willingham as a poor man's Adam Dunn (or Nick Swisher). If Uggla can't play average 2B, his bat sure as hell would be a liability at 1B/3B. I just can't see him turning into a starting player, or even a plus bench player. But like I said before, I'm rooting for him because I love his attitude. Guess we'll find out next month. I just hope it's not to frustrating.

Absolutely love reading your posts MarlinsLou.

 

On a different note I'd still much prefer to see Uggla get the PA, at least initially over guys like Reese. Amezega may have something to offer in the batting average and defense department, so he should get over a 150PA between SS/2B. I'm hoping at least one of Andino or Ramirez sticks as well. If not at SS, I'd like to see Andino get some 2B plate appearances mid-season after some AAA PA.

Every scouting report and story on Uggla says he has a long way to go to just be average as a fielder......Pokey Reese I last saw in 2004 when he was helping the Red Sox win a World Series as a defensive replacement, sometimes starter.

 

I don't think Reese will hit over .250, but his defense will be very good.....he has won a couple Gold Gloves.

 

"Every" scouting report and story?

 

I'm sure you wouldn't mind publishing them here. Otherwise I'll assume you're just making up more stuff as is your want. I'm dieing to see these scouting reports you have access to.

 

 

Here's the Year End All-Star team for the 2005 Southern League. Uggla was voted best second baseman AND utility player (he played three positions last season). It's an interesting list with a bunch of now familiar faces including Hermida. The Southern League is probably the premier AA+ level league in minor league baseball.

 

Check it out. http://www.southernleague.com/nm/publish/news_71.shtml

 

How he could be the best second baseman in the Southern League and still have "a long way to go to just be average as a fielder" is beyond me. Is he Luis Castillo in his prime? Nope. Is he going to leave fans in the seats breathless? Probably not. But does he have a chance to become a respectable major league second baseman, absolutely.

 

He also performed well in the post season AFL where he hit .304, had an OBP of .390 and hit seven home runs. Maybe the scouting reports you have didn't indicate how well he performed in 2005, but it's hard to miss, if you really have an interest in looking.

 

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/mil..._pbp&pid=462564

I paid $27.95 plus tax for the Baseball America Prospect Handbook that ranked Uggla as the Marlins 29th best prospect. It also says that at his best...he'll be a utility player. If you want to read the whole scouting report......go buy the book.

Let's just see how these guys perform on the field during training, spring training games, and onto the season. Whatever BA or BP have said about these guys is out the window once they start playing the games. We don't play the games on paper. BA and BP have been known to be very wrong about players quite frequently. Just check out the top 20 BA prospects in the last decade to see who among those players didn't make it big as predicted and which players not in the list have made it big. Then you'll see how much of an inexact science this is. No one has the monopoly on the truth here, folks. Let the kids play.

Here is what we know....

 

 

What Reese brings.

 

 

Here is what we don tknow...

 

 

What Uggla brings.

 

 

We have all seen Pokey, we havent seen Dan.

 

 

Until we see him, its wisest to reserve most judgement on him. Spring Training ought to be interesting.

I paid $27.95 plus tax for the Baseball America Prospect Handbook that ranked Uggla as the Marlins 29th best prospect.

 

Your welfare check came this week I assume?

I paid $27.95 plus tax for the Baseball America Prospect Handbook that ranked Uggla as the Marlins 29th best prospect.

 

Your welfare check came this week I assume?

 

:lol :lol :lol :notworthy :notworthy

OK, I'm going on record here: I like Uggla and what he can bring.

 

I don't give a crap if he's 26, 36 or 16. Uggla can flat out hit. Willingham, for all the raves he gets (and I'm high on him too) didn't truly thrive until he got to AA in 2004, and his first monster production came in AAA this past year.

 

Here's another thing Willingham is older than Uggla by a full year (Feb, 17 '79 to March 11, '80), and both didn't truly explode until AA at the ripe old age of 25. Even those breakout seasons look eerily similar: Willingham .281/24/76, Uggla: .297/21/87. If Willingham is a can't miss monster, why isn't Uggla given some love too? I'm not calling either a hall of famer or even an all-star level player, but certainly an above average non-core player.

 

I think that it's incredbily foolish to call Uggla garbage when he is in many ways incredibly similar to Willingham in both minor league progression, age of breakout and offensive statistics. Additionally, according to Baseball-America (who make their living evaluating prospects) Uggla has "soft hands and good instincts" at second base and "above average power," and while not Luis Castillo with the glove, he isn't going to hurt you.

I paid $27.95 plus tax for the Baseball America Prospect Handbook that ranked Uggla as the Marlins 29th best prospect.

 

Your welfare check came this week I assume?

That's a funny one. I'll then assume you make more money than me........so how far over 80,000 a year do you make?

 

Actually I hope you guys are all right about Uggla. Maybe he is the next Jeff Kent or Ryne Sandberg......we'll see soon enough.

 

The job is open.....all Uggla has to do is beat out a player that was out all of last season.

Actually I hope you guys are all right about Uggla. Maybe he is the next Jeff Kent or Ryne Sandberg

 

He doesn't even have to be that good to make me happy. Just give me .275/18/80...and I'm smiling.

So your expectations aren't that high......you just want him to be Craig Biggio?

So your expectations aren't that high......you just want him to be Craig Biggio?

 

 

Ahh, what a loaded question.

 

Yes, I'd be happy with Biggio's average season (.285, 16/67) but I realize that Uggla cannot do it for as long as Biggio has done it (Biggio's been in the bigs since he was 22, for those slow at math, that's 18 seasons and counting). Nor do I think that Uggla will be much more than a 4 or 5 year productive player after some initial growing pains. In all likelihood, Uggla will peak by 2008 and be out of baseball or relegated to the 24th or 25th spot on some team's bench by 2013.

 

I'm not asking for, or expecting, Biggio's career, but I'd be more than satisfied with his average yearly production, which I think is very realistically attainable, for the next 3 or 4 years.

 

Nice try on the baiting though, I'm sure you'll get it some-day. :thumbup

Just having some fun that's all. I think he'll have a hard time beating Reese out, because Reese can flash that leather.

OK, I'm going on record here: I like Uggla and what he can bring.

 

I don't give a crap if he's 26, 36 or 16. Uggla can flat out hit. Willingham, for all the raves he gets (and I'm high on him too) didn't truly thrive until he got to AA in 2004, and his first monster production came in AAA this past year.

 

Here's another thing Willingham is older than Uggla by a full year (Feb, 17 '79 to March 11, '80), and both didn't truly explode until AA at the ripe old age of 25. Even those breakout seasons look eerily similar: Willingham .281/24/76, Uggla: .297/21/87. If Willingham is a can't miss monster, why isn't Uggla given some love too? I'm not calling either a hall of famer or even an all-star level player, but certainly an above average non-core player.

 

I think that it's incredbily foolish to call Uggla garbage when he is in many ways incredibly similar to Willingham in both minor league progression, age of breakout and offensive statistics. Additionally, according to Baseball-America (who make their living evaluating prospects) Uggla has "soft hands and good instincts" at second base and "above average power," and while not Luis Castillo with the glove, he isn't going to hurt you.

 

 

uh.... Willingham had a .975+ OPS in 2003 between two levels, and a 1.000+ OPS in 2004 before his "insane" 1.131 OPS last season. What's your threshold for "monster" year.

 

Willingham's career minor league OPS is .932, compared to Uggla's .880 last year. .790 for his career. This alone, shows you who is WAY better. To go with ancillary stats, you also cite Willingham and Uggla's comparitve HR-RBI by their age/level for whatever reason. Well, Willingham had 125 less plate apperances and produced more HR and 10 less RBI then Uggla that year, mainly because he walks like a maniac. What do these walks do? Willingham scored 81 times, and Uggla 88 times that season. Willingham scored 7 less times in 125 less plate apperances. Given equal AB, Willingham would have scored about 18 more runs and knocked in 12 more if we crudely scale his R and RBI % per plate apperance from that year. Huge production advantage. Huge. Also, as we are projecting, Willinghams BB/K that year was 91/87. That's a lot of whiffs for his plate apperances, but that's a silly amount of walks to make up for it. Uggla? 52/103. Gross. If Willingham bats .230 at the MLB level, he will walk his way to a .330 OBP just like Swisher. When Uggla hits .230, his OBP will be around .280. Not to mention, Willingham is going to out slug the living crap out of him.

 

The short answer would be: they at a glance look similiar, but aren't at all. I think it's foolish to think Uggla is in the same stratosphere as Willingham. Regarding his defense, look at the PECOTA index link provided in a previous post above. He might have soft hands, but he is going to be a well below average fielder. His minor league numbers are atrocious in this department. Willingham is a fringe Core/above average non-core player as you put it. He just needs a position to solidify himself as not a future DH. If he hits .270 in the majors, holy crap do we have another potential superstar on our hands. Uggla is your second backup middle infielder if he makes it as a player.

All I'm saying is that Uggla can put up good offensive numbers at a typically non-offensive position.

 

I'm not proclaiming him to be a future 3 hole hitter, or an all-star, but he's certainly an exceptionally exciting complementary player.

 

If Uggla can give you 4 or 5 years of corner-outfield type production from second-base, it'd be foolish to say that doesn't represent a tantalizing investment.

So your expectations aren't that high......you just want him to be Craig Biggio?

 

 

it will take a lot more than those offensive numbers to be craig biggio.

All I'm saying is that Uggla can put up good offensive numbers at a typically non-offensive position.

 

I'm not proclaiming him to be a future 3 hole hitter, or an all-star, but he's certainly an exceptionally exciting complementary player.

 

If Uggla can give you 4 or 5 years of corner-outfield type production from second-base, it'd be foolish to say that doesn't represent a tantalizing investment.

 

 

Corner/OF position!!!!!! He's not going to even give you solid production for a 2B offensively!!!!! The 15th 2B (min PA 300) in baseball last year in OPS had a .765. Ironically, that was Castillo. The 30th was Damian Jackson at .677. Uggla not only won't sniff a .765 OPS and be "average," I highly doubt he breaks .677. And if he does, it won't be by much.

 

Looking at this list, a player comes to mind for Uggla next year.

 

Brett Boone .221/.290/.350, or in 325 AB .221-7-37, 33 R scored

 

That looks about right to me.

All I'm saying is that Uggla can put up good offensive numbers at a typically non-offensive position.

 

I'm not proclaiming him to be a future 3 hole hitter, or an all-star, but he's certainly an exceptionally exciting complementary player.

 

If Uggla can give you 4 or 5 years of corner-outfield type production from second-base, it'd be foolish to say that doesn't represent a tantalizing investment.

 

 

Corner/OF position!!!!!! He's not going to even give you solid production for a 2B offensively!!!!! The 15th 2B (min PA 300) in baseball last year in OPS had a .765. Ironically, that was Castillo. The 30th was Damian Jackson at .677. Uggla not only won't sniff a .765 OPS and be "average," I highly doubt he breaks .677. And if he does, it won't be by much.

 

Looking at this list, a player comes to mind for Uggla next year.

 

Brett Boone .221/.290/.350, or in 325 AB .221-7-37, 33 R scored

 

That looks about right to me.

 

the only thing i really love about this arguement is that we really have no clue what uggla will do.

 

we can just go by stats, but until we see what he actually produces, nobody really knows, becuase he has never got it done at this level before. we will have a much better idea by the end of march.

 

to simply say that uggla is going to flat out suck, is relying way too much on numbers and way too little on production.

 

 

and that is where statistical analysis falls short. to base everything simply on numbers takes away the human aspect of baseball.

 

we might as well just play the game with a computer simulator if we are just going to rely on numbers for everything.

Lou, what makes you so sure Uggla can't improve this coming season? And you seem to think statistics will always predict output. Look at what BP predicted for Miggy in 2004 and 2005 and then match them up against what he actually did. The use of statistics is just a part of evaluation. There are many other factors that come into play as well.

 

Das, exactly right.

 

Lou, please look up BP's forecast of Dontrelle's 2005 season. Thanks.

Uggguuggggh

He's a 25 year-old AA prospect who strikes out at a frightening pace. 2B is going to be as big of an offensive concern for the Fish as CF.

 

Frightening is Preston Wilson. Now there's a strike-out machine.

 

Carlos Delgado struck out 121 last season, Miguel Cabrera 125. Uggla struck out 103 times in 500 ABs and still managed a .378 OBP. While you may have no hope, I'll reserve judgement.

 

Miguel never struck out 100 times in AA, or any minor league level for that matter. Neither did Delgado. Fact is, these guys have a sense of the strike zone and the get struck out working for balls they can crush. They also walk from time to time. With Uggla, we could be looking at a .700 OPS hitter that sets a SO record.

 

As for Preston, I wasn't sad to see him go and don't want him back.

Preston Wilson makes more than 350,000 bucks.....so don't worry the Marlins aren't interested.

All I'm saying is that Uggla can put up good offensive numbers at a typically non-offensive position.

 

I'm not proclaiming him to be a future 3 hole hitter, or an all-star, but he's certainly an exceptionally exciting complementary player.

 

If Uggla can give you 4 or 5 years of corner-outfield type production from second-base, it'd be foolish to say that doesn't represent a tantalizing investment.

 

 

Corner/OF position!!!!!! He's not going to even give you solid production for a 2B offensively!!!!! The 15th 2B (min PA 300) in baseball last year in OPS had a .765. Ironically, that was Castillo. The 30th was Damian Jackson at .677. Uggla not only won't sniff a .765 OPS and be "average," I highly doubt he breaks .677. And if he does, it won't be by much.

 

Looking at this list, a player comes to mind for Uggla next year.

 

Brett Boone .221/.290/.350, or in 325 AB .221-7-37, 33 R scored

 

That looks about right to me.

 

You're putting way too much weight into OPS.

 

Maybe I'm a dense old-school baseball guy, but delving into sabermetrics to the extent that it is the only measure of a player just makes me shake my head.

 

OPS is an interesting evaluation method, and sabermetrics can be fun, but when's the last time you saw a team that was a saber champ celebrating in October? Last I checked, the three disciples of Bill James (Beane, DePodesta, Riccardi) have exactly 0 division series wins between them, one's out of a job, and only Beane has won a division title (and he really hasn't had the same kind of success since his true "moneyball" took over and Giambi, Tejada, Zito and Mulder were shown the door).

 

I'm pretty sure that the Marlins in 2003, White Sox in 2005, Angels in 2002 and D'Back in 2001 weren't a sabertrician's (or whatever the hell they're called) dream. I'm giving the benefit of the doubt to the '04 Red Sox and the Yankees teams but they paid through the teeth for their offensive production, and more times than not high end offense is going to give you high end OPS production, so they were hardly a world beater assembled on a budget, as was the original intent of mathematicizing the game.

 

I know I'm not alone (right Marlins2003 ) in saying that I think this saber stuff is getting way out of hand, especially when I feel (note: OPINION) that the results of this stats explosion are luke-warm at best.