I will agree though, that OPS is not the most important stat in judging Uggla. I think is SO/BB ratio is far more important. The man has no concept of the strikezone and he is going to be brutally punished for that failing. If a player knows the strikezone at 20, he's only going to get better as he ages, if he doesn't he may never have a chance to get better.

 

Thank you! Finally someone else! :thumbup

I will agree though, that OPS is not the most important stat in judging Uggla. I think is SO/BB ratio is far more important. The man has no concept of the strikezone and he is going to be brutally punished for that failing. If a player knows the strikezone at 20, he's only going to get better as he ages, if he doesn't he may never have a chance to get better.

 

Thank you! Finally someone else! :thumbup

 

But perhaps his knowledge of the strike zone will improve this season. Or do stats say it's impossible?

So Lou, am I to assume that you too feel that Hanley Ramirez is a "doomed to fail" prospect as well given his career .793 OPS (never at a level higher than AA) and routinely 2-1 K/BB ratio?

I will agree though, that OPS is not the most important stat in judging Uggla. I think is SO/BB ratio is far more important. The man has no concept of the strikezone and he is going to be brutally punished for that failing. If a player knows the strikezone at 20, he's only going to get better as he ages, if he doesn't he may never have a chance to get better.

 

Thank you! Finally someone else! :thumbup

 

MarlinsLou,

 

Why the hatred for Dan Uggla?? I understand your point, but everytime there is a Uggla thread, you're bashing the guy. His K/BB in the minors wasn't good (52/103) last year, but there are plenty of Major Leaguers who strike out twice as much as they walk. Uggla, at least in the minors, has still managed to put up good OBP and SLG. His numbers the last two year in the minors plus his excellent AFL are what make people interested in seeing him play. Just as a comparison, Craig Biggio the past 5 years has a K/BB of 50/102 on average. Now, Biggio is a Hall of Famer and has been playing against ML pitching, but players with similar numbers as Uggla put up the past few years can be successful in the majors.

Miggy has a similar K/BB rate.

If I were a GM I would apply the Moneyball strategy pretty consistently. Over the long run it will pay off for a team. What I have a problem with is MarlinLou's belief that stats always tell the tale about a specific young player. I agree that if you have a team full of players with promising statistical backgrounds the team will do well. But I do not think it is always an accurate portrayal of what a specific player will do. You have to take stats into account and then individual factors as well when evaluating a player. Stats are a major tool, but we have to realize we're dealing with human beings here, not machines. And games aren't played on paper.

 

Like I said before MarlinsLou, please look at the projected statistics for Miggy Cabrera for both 2004 and 2005 and Dontrelle Willis last season. The projections for both were FAR below their actual performances. These projections didn't take into account how hard of a worker Dontrelle is, how much extra work he put in before the season, how he got into far better shape coming into 2005 than in previous seasons, and how focused he was. The projections for Miggy didn't take into account how much natural talent the man has that had not yet shown itself. These are all things that can't be quantified by statistics.

 

The point is that stats can't take everything that matters into account because so many things are qualitative and not quantitative. There was something about Uggla that intrigued the FO. They saw something that statistics doesn't. If they're right he'll end up being a pretty good player.

 

Some of the arguments being made in this thread are pretty bad and there's too many for me to crush, so I'll just take this one real quickly. Go look up how old Miggy Cabrera was when he was putting up those numbers in the minors. They were absolutely incredible for his age. Now do the same for Uggla and realize the extreme importance of age and performance. I suppose we can wait for spring training to determine Uggla's stock, but I don't know why anyone expects him to suddenly learn to be major league average offensively and defensively. I think his ceiling his higher than what MLou projects, but I'm not crapping my pants waiting for this guy to give us average production at 2B. I think people underrate how hard that is to actually achieve for a guy of Uggla's previous performance. Anyhow, I'd guess at this point that my post is futile in swaying any minds on this question. I do hope that Uggla morphs into an average player at 2B for us for anyone wondering, I just find it highly unlikely.

 

Miggy has a similar K/BB rate.

 

one was 19 and 20 years old playing with guys older and more experienced than him. The other was repeating a level for the 3rd time.

bah, I don't think people feel he's anything special. Just hoping he can be average.

I will agree though, that OPS is not the most important stat in judging Uggla. I think is SO/BB ratio is far more important. The man has no concept of the strikezone and he is going to be brutally punished for that failing. If a player knows the strikezone at 20, he's only going to get better as he ages, if he doesn't he may never have a chance to get better.

 

Thank you! Finally someone else! :thumbup

 

But perhaps his knowledge of the strike zone will improve this season. Or do stats say it's impossible?

It seems extremely unlikely that it'll improve from his 2005 AA numbers, especially considering he's jumping to the majors. Add in the fact that he'll be 26 opening day, and players rarely make large jumps in talent at that age because excepting his 3rd repeat of AA he's never shown anything but below average plate discipline.

Here's the Year End All-Star team for the 2005 Southern League. Uggla was voted best second baseman AND utility player (he played three positions last season). It's an interesting list with a bunch of now familiar faces including Hermida. The Southern League is probably the premier AA+ level league in minor league baseball.

 

Check it out. http://www.southernleague.com/nm/publish/news_71.shtml

 

Check out the pitchers on that list. We've got every one of them now!

I will agree though, that OPS is not the most important stat in judging Uggla. I think is SO/BB ratio is far more important. The man has no concept of the strikezone and he is going to be brutally punished for that failing. If a player knows the strikezone at 20, he's only going to get better as he ages, if he doesn't he may never have a chance to get better.

 

Thank you! Finally someone else! :thumbup

 

But perhaps his knowledge of the strike zone will improve this season. Or do stats say it's impossible?

It seems extremely unlikely that it'll improve from his 2005 AA numbers, especially considering he's jumping to the majors. Add in the fact that he'll be 26 opening day, and players rarely make large jumps in talent at that age because excepting his 3rd repeat of AA he's never shown anything but below average plate discipline.

 

Probably true. But Lou thinks it's all about the stats. I disagree. We're human beings, not machines.

bah, I don't think people feel he's anything special. Just hoping he can be average.

 

And I think MLou is arguing (and myself) that becoming an average 2B is much harder to achieve for a player of such advanced years (26) and such limited success, against AA competition. And, again, I hope it comes true. I just think people are throwing around the "average" phrase too lightly here. Average major league regulars don't just fall into your lap from the rule V draft very often.

Here's the Year End All-Star team for the 2005 Southern League. Uggla was voted best second baseman AND utility player (he played three positions last season). It's an interesting list with a bunch of now familiar faces including Hermida. The Southern League is probably the premier AA+ level league in minor league baseball.

 

Check it out. http://www.southernleague.com/nm/publish/news_71.shtml

 

Check out the pitchers on that list. We've got every one of them now!

 

Yeah, we're basically a team of AA and AAA all-stars with 2 superstars and a handful of solid veteran players. That's not bad at all, especially if those all-stars are major league ready and about to burst on to the scene.

no argument there. Definitely he's a long shot, I mean how many Rule V success stories are there? Jay Gibbons?

Average major league regulars don't just fall into your lap from the rule V draft very often.

 

 

Not even suggesting they're in the same stratosphere, but Roberto Clemente and Johan Santana were rule V's.

 

It isn't a death-knell for future failure to be a rule V guy.

Average major league regulars don't just fall into your lap from the rule V draft very often.

 

 

Not even suggesting they're in the same stratosphere, but Roberto Clemente and Johan Santana were rule V's.

 

It isn't a death-knell for future failure to be a rule V guy.

Again, not saying it's impossible, just not probable that Uggla becomes an average player at 2B or anywhere else. But I'm rooting like all hell that he'll do it. We've got nothing else at all to put there.

Uggghhhh

So Lou, am I to assume that you too feel that Hanley Ramirez is a "doomed to fail" prospect as well given his career .793 OPS (never at a level higher than AA) and routinely 2-1 K/BB ratio?

 

Hanley was 21 in double AA last year. Uggla is 25.

 

Hanley has better plate discipline already, let alone when he is 25. 2-1 K/BB, I'll give you that, check out the frequency of those walks and whiffs. He is an awesome contact hitter, and already hits for more average then Uggla. I'm sure you don't want to argue Hanley's plate discipline versus Uggla.

 

Hanley also plays defense, and has a lot of room to grow as a player, where's Uggla "is who he is" at 26 years old now. Let's say Uggla does improve this late in the game, it's not unheard of. He's still only going to max out as around a .700 OPS, low defense guy. He's bench material, if he's lucky.

 

Early reports of Hanley were comparing him to Tejada, which I think he has proved he will not be. I see no reason why he is not the next Rollins, Furcal, Renteria type shortstop in about 2-3 years, with room to grow on top of that cause he still be 25. Hanley is a terribly exciting player to watch for the future. Your assumption is waaaay off base, even if you are being slightly sarcastic.

 

Miggy has a similar K/BB rate.

 

Miggy is 22, and hits the living crap out of the ball for a high average. It's not the 2-1 K/BB that's important, again, it's the frequency. Cabrera walks a lot at the MLB level, despite the K. Against MLB compeition, Uggla's avg and walk rate will both go noticeably down, and his K's up. Uggla is not going to strike fear in pitchers with his bat like Cabrera does, which keeps that BB rate up. It's the Adam Dunn effect. They just walk him even if he hits .250, because if they hang it anywhere, that ball is slammed 500 feet.

 

MarlinsLou,

 

Why the hatred for Dan Uggla?? I understand your point, but everytime there is a Uggla thread, you're bashing the guy. His K/BB in the minors wasn't good (52/103) last year, but there are plenty of Major Leaguers who strike out twice as much as they walk. Uggla, at least in the minors, has still managed to put up good OBP and SLG. His numbers the last two year in the minors plus his excellent AFL are what make people interested in seeing him play. Just as a comparison, Craig Biggio the past 5 years has a K/BB of 50/102 on average. Now, Biggio is a Hall of Famer and has been playing against ML pitching, but players with similar numbers as Uggla put up the past few years can be successful in the majors.

 

I don't hate him. I hate people defending him and putting him into decent prospect status based on the fact he mashed as a 25 year old in AA. I agree also about his BB/K. If he drops a 52/103 in the bigs this year in 550 plate apperances, I would be thrilled and amazed, and my opinion of him would change drastically. You can all call me out if that happens, and I hope it does because I would love for him or someone else to emerge as a longterm 2B option for this team. But like you point out, "Biggio," does it against the big boys. Uggla did it against 21-23 year old double AA pitchers as a 25 year old. I don't think it's going to be pretty for Dan when he starts routinely seeing MLB pitching. Walks and average are going to go way down, and the whiffs will start piling up. That's why I think he's going to be awful. When he hits it, I think the power will stay the same..... I don't think his general pop will disappear, but who cares about that if he's batting .230, has a .280 OBP, and is well below average defensively for a 2B?

 

 

Sorry if I am coming off bitter, I will ease up on Beast posting. I just don't like his chances.

 

Probably true. But Lou thinks it's all about the stats. I disagree. We're human beings, not machines.

 

 

Is age a stat?

So Lou, am I to assume that you too feel that Hanley Ramirez is a "doomed to fail" prospect as well given his career .793 OPS (never at a level higher than AA) and routinely 2-1 K/BB ratio?

 

Hanley was 21 in double AA last year. Uggla is 25.

 

Hanley has better plate discipline already, let alone when he is 25. 2-1 K/BB, I'll give you that, check out the frequency of those walks and whiffs. He is an awesome contact hitter, and already hits for more average then Uggla. I'm sure you don't want to argue Hanley's plate discipline versus Uggla.

 

Hanley also plays defense, and has a lot of room to grow as a player, where's Uggla "is who he is" at 26 years old now. Let's say Uggla does improve this late in the game, it's not unheard of. He's still only going to max out as around a .700 OPS, low defense guy. He's bench material, if he's lucky.

 

Early reports of Hanley were comparing him to Tejada, which I think he has proved he will not be. I see no reason why he is not the next Rollins, Furcal, Renteria type shortstop in about 2-3 years, with room to grow on top of that cause he still be 25. Hanley is a terribly exciting player to watch for the future. Your assumption is waaaay off base, even if you are being slightly sarcastic.

 

I like Hanley, but expecting him to thrive is taking the polar opposite of what you've been arguing in the scouts-v-stats debate (God I love our minors).

 

Anticipating a good showing from Hanley means that stats have to be (at least partially) disregarded and scouts' opinions have to be respected, the same opinions who said that Uggla had above average power and soft, serviceable hands for second-base.

 

Can't call one a future failure based on stats and another a future success based on scouts...it doesn't work both ways...same with age regarding Willingham/Uggla.

 

Dan Uggla has just as good a chance, if not greater, to be a contributing non-core player as any other prospect taking the field this week.

I like Hanley, but expecting him to thrive is taking the polar opposite of what you've been arguing in the scouts-v-stats debate (God I love our minors).

 

Anticipating a good showing from Hanley means that stats have to be (at least partially) disregarded and scouts' opinions have to be respected, the same opinions who said that Uggla had above average power and soft, serviceable hands for second-base.

 

Can't call one a future failure based on stats and another a future success based on scouts...it doesn't work both ways...same with age regarding Willingham/Uggla.

 

Dan Uggla has just as good a chance, if not greater, to be a contributing non-core player as any other prospect taking the field this week.

 

 

Dude, that isn't right at all. It's not like Hanley is doing bad in the minors. For his age, he is doing awesome. I would love him, even if scouts hate him. Hits for average, has great contact with good K numbers, takes some walks, everything says he is going to be a great defender, and shows SB speed at a good % that will translate to the bigs (even though I devalue SB against many other people, still important to note he does do that well). I don't see anything wrong with being Jimmy Rollins? That's a great baseball player, even if he doesn't have 25+ HR power. 21 year old players grow a lot by the time they are 25. Anticipating a good showing from Hanley down the road is not hypocritical in any sense to not predicting a good showing from Uggla.

 

If Hanley was 25 like Uggla, I would like him better then Dan based on (1) contact/avg potential and (2) defense, but I wouldn't be as high with him as I am because he is 21. Likewise, if Uggla was 21, I would like him a lot better.

So Lou, am I to assume that you too feel that Hanley Ramirez is a "doomed to fail" prospect as well given his career .793 OPS (never at a level higher than AA) and routinely 2-1 K/BB ratio?

 

 

So many weak arguments in favor of a guy that is only getting a shot because he is basically free.

 

The Ramierez thing is not even comparable. Hanley is significantly younger than Uggla. I may be willing to agree that Hanely is ready for the bigs.

 

Uggla has some encouraging minor league trends. He hits lots of 2B, which tend to develop into HRs later, but he is 25 years old and has only JUST had success at AA.

 

The age thing doesn't compare to Willingham as Josh has enjoyed success for years now, and had that success as high as AAA.

 

No comparason to Cabs can be made, as Cabs is an elite MLB player at several years younger.

we should probably just cut Uggla now

we should probably just cut Uggla now

 

nobody said that. arguments were only made to temper expectations concerning Uggla. He's a low risk chance we are taking in an area of extreme need. Everyone seems to be almost assuming he'll come in and be an average player at 2B when that's not exactly an easy thing to do for a player with his history and age. I love when these types get chances to show their stuff, and it's conceivable that he wouldn't have ever gotten a shot had not the Marlins taken this personnel path at this particular time. I'm happy for him and wish him the best at succeeding and making me look like an idiot, and, more importantly securing one of our major organzational weaknesses.

 

However, since you're an Uggla homer you could only muster that one lame sentence. That all you got boy? :lol

There's always Andino or Amezaga or, gulp, Reese.

we should probably just cut Uggla now

 

However, since you're an Uggla homer you could only muster that one lame sentence. That all you got boy? :lol

I prefer to actually watch the guy play some games before saying he cant cut it. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. But smoke it outdoors, I dont like my clothes smelling of crow and stuff.

I like Uggla, quite high on him actually...but I have one of them feelings that he is maybe a stop gap to Psomes maybe...since, you know, P-diddy is one of the few position prospects we got back in the offseason clearence.