April 20, 200620 yr 47. Jeremy Hermida 42. Dontrelle Willis 4. Miguel Cabrera What Cabrera has done might have received more attention if Albert Pujols hadn't beaten him to the punch by a couple of seasons. But consider Cabrera's top 20 PECOTA comparables. Five of them (Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray, Hank Aaron, Johnny Bench and Orlando Cepeda) are already in the Hall of Fame. Another three (Pujols, Vladimir Guerrero and Ken Griffey Jr.) are well on their way. Two more (Jim Rice and Dick Allen) are more likely than not going to join the group someday. Cabrera has fewer than 1,600 big-league at bats to his name -- and yet we can say that he's an even-money shot to make the Hall of Fame. That doesn't happen every day. 50-26 25-1
April 20, 200620 yr I'm not sure I would put Miguel in the top 5 And David Wright has no business on the top 10 either
April 20, 200620 yr I'm not sure I would put Miguel in the top 5 And David Wright has no business on the top 10 either david wright's a helluva player..he's just going to get better. yesterday he suked pretty bad though had 3 errors and didn't do anything at the plate. david should be in the top 20, maybe the top 10 surprised willis is ranked so low.....the reasoning is probably because he's a pitcher and only plays every 5 days. what's chris carpenter ranked?
April 20, 200620 yr Hermida at 47? Thats a little high at this point. Hanley has shown more than Hermida so far. One day Hermida will be in the top 50 but not now.
April 20, 200620 yr Author Hermida at 47? Thats a little high at this point. Hanley has shown more than Hermida so far. One day Hermida will be in the top 50 but not now. this list is based mostly on a player's potential and looks heavily at their PECOTA rating so Hermida definitely deserves to be on the top 50, but im kind of surprised Hanley isnt on here at all fishfanforever: Carpenter is #39 on the list. considering how hes 7 years older than Willis, i dont think he should be 8 spots ahead of Dontrelle
April 20, 200620 yr was any of marlin now with team former teammate of Dontrelle Willis Miguel Cabrera when their both were with aaa or aa farm team??
April 20, 200620 yr was any of marlin now with team former teammate of Dontrelle Willis Miguel Cabrera when their both were with aaa or aa farm team?? both in AA
April 20, 200620 yr two kids were ahead of willis and espn couldn't even find a picture of them... :plain
April 20, 200620 yr david wright at no. 2 is pretty ridiculous the media lovefest around him is absolutely disgusting
April 20, 200620 yr david wright at no. 2 is pretty ridiculous the media lovefest around him is absolutely disgusting Totally agree. He's a great player, but he's not the second best player in the game. He's not even the best third baseman in the NL East.
April 20, 200620 yr You can't just post a Baseball Prospectus article with no explanation and expect alot of people here to actually get it. Just look at the responses. It's based on PECOTA. A prediction analysis algorithm. The reason that D-Train is ranked behind Brandon Webb is because based on their system - Willis compares VERY heavily to guys who had incredible starts and proceeded to flame out (Steve Avery etc.)
April 20, 200620 yr You can't just post a Baseball Prospectus article with no explanation and expect alot of people here to actually get it. Just look at the responses. It's based on PECOTA. A prediction analysis algorithm. The reason that D-Train is ranked behind Brandon Webb is because based on their system - Willis compares VERY heavily to guys who had incredible starts and proceeded to flame out (Steve Avery etc.) That's a horrible system then. How can you assume he'll follow the same track?
April 21, 200620 yr Having read articles about its inner workings, it seems rather worthy of trust. This is a game played by 9 people on a field and has been for 150 years. When you put that history into the proper context as BP does, it's kind of hard for a player to reinvent the wheel. It should be pointed out that PECOTA doesn't peg Willis as a Avery or Gooden, just that they have a lot in common that gives you a basis of Willis' future. Webb has most resembled pitchers that have improved over this point in their careers, i.e. Jose Rijo and Jack Morris. Certainly they could be wrong. The beauty of PECOTA is that players can rewrite the system. Every year they put in new data.
April 21, 200620 yr there is no way david wright is better than miguel cabrera. ask 30 teams who they would rather have and see how many pick wright over cabrera..... (3, 4? and thats being nice) miguel has double the amount of homeruns and rbis and they are the same age. how could someone there calling mini pujols be behind david wright?
April 21, 200620 yr there is no way david wright is better than miguel cabrera. ask 30 teams who they would rather have and see how many pick wright over cabrera..... (3, 4? and thats being nice) miguel has double the amount of homeruns and rbis and they are the same age. how could someone there calling mini pujols be behind david wright? You do realise Cabs has like 700 more at bats and has played in around 150 more games give or take. Not defending Wright or knocking Cabrera, just saying the HR/same age arguement is lame. And so you know, Cabs hits a HR once ever 19 at bats for his career, Wright once every 20 at bats(and both have about around a HR every 6 hits ratio). They are both damn good defensively, both damn good offensively, time will tell which one is better over the course of their careers, but right now they are both very young and promising superstars. That said, Wrights a Mutt so the homer in me of course thinks Cab's is alot better.
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