August 30, 200620 yr I've had it in my sig for a bit now, and I think that it might actually happen. To me, 85 wins seems like enough to win the Wild Card (85-77). At 65-66, the Marlins would have to go 20-11 the rest of the way--something that is not at all improbable.
August 30, 200620 yr I think it will take 83. If the Reds and Padres get hot and get to 85 they may pass the Cards and Dodgers and win their divisions so they wouldn't count for the WC
August 30, 200620 yr Author The Phillies and Fish are probably the two hottest WC teams ('maybe' Houston), and I don't see either really letting up in September (especially Philly with that schedule). So I do think a couple teams will space themselves from the pack...and my hope/thought is that Philly/Florida will be those teams.
August 30, 200620 yr There isn't room for both the Marlins and the Phillies at the top. We have too many games together. One or both teams will drop before it's over.
August 30, 200620 yr With September approaching (and so many of our games left against WC teams) it becomes a very fun statistical study. The Padres have 18 games left against the West, whom they're 27-30 against thus far, meaning they're statistically expected to win 8.5 of those games, and 12 against teams from the Central, against whom they're 17-9, meaning they're expected to win 7.8 of their remaining games, that puts them on pace for 17 wins over their final 30, or 84 wins. The Phillies have 21 remaining games against East teams, against whom they're 28-25, putting them on pace to win 11 of those games (of those, 10 are against us), they also have 9 games remaining against central teams, against whom they've been 14-14 against, putting them on pace for 4.5 wins. That puts them on pace for 16 wins, or 82 for the season. The Giants have 2 games left against the East, whom they're 11-18 against this season, projecting them for .78 wins there; 13 against the central whom they're 15-13 against this season, putting them on pace for 7 wins, and 12 left against the west, whom they're 31-29 against, putting them on pace for 7.4 wins; or 15 wins for the rest of the year; 80 for the season. The Reds are free-falling so stats are out the window there. Finally, the Marlins: 8 against the central (18-13 on the year) 5 expected wins; 3 against the West (12-15 on the year) 1.3 wins expected. 20 against the east (26-29 on the year) 9.5 wins expected; 18 wins; 83 for the year. Thus, expected order of finish: Padres-84 Marlins-83 Phillies-82 Giants-80 :whistle Let's get hot
August 30, 200620 yr The way this team is playing, 20-11 run is not improbable by any means. Definatly a possibility.
August 30, 200620 yr The way this team is playing, 20-11 run is not improbable by any means. Definatly a possibility. All that is is winning 2 out of ever 3. Which means if win the majority of our series down the stretch, sweep maybe one or two, and don't get swept at all, we should get there.
August 30, 200620 yr www.baseballprospectus.com has us with a 12.2% chance of winning the WC. According to them the Reds and Padres have a better shot to win their division than to win the WC. ======================== http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php Average wins by position in NL East: 99.3 83.1 79.9 76.9 69.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mets 81 49 .554 99.3 62.7 99.99725 .00260 99.99985 Phillies 66 65 .478 81.4 80.6 .00115 21.16380 21.16495 Marlins 65 66 .484 80.2 81.8 .00140 12.16347 12.16487 Braves 62 68 .493 78.3 83.7 .00020 3.54255 3.54275 Nationals 55 76 .449 69.4 92.6 .00000 .00012 .00012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Average wins by position in NL Central: 85.8 82.0 79.1 75.7 68.4 64.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 69 61 .472 85.2 76.8 74.89051 5.57003 80.46054 Reds 67 66 .477 81.7 80.3 17.05548 12.17316 29.22863 Astros 64 68 .482 79.2 82.8 6.78616 3.08343 9.86959 Brewers 62 70 .455 76.5 85.5 1.26783 .48266 1.75049 Cubs 54 78 .430 67.8 94.2 .00003 .00000 .00003 Pirates 52 81 .420 64.5 97.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Average wins by position in NL West: 86.8 83.3 80.7 78.3 75.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 70 62 .527 86.1 75.9 71.95609 10.99838 82.95448 Padres 67 65 .517 82.8 79.2 20.29401 19.71283 40.00685 Giants 65 67 .500 80.2 81.8 5.09037 7.38038 12.47075 Diamondbacks 64 68 .474 78.5 83.5 1.92102 2.85213 4.77316 Rockies 61 70 .505 76.9 85.1 .73850 .87445 1.61295
August 30, 200620 yr Ya, 2 days ago we were at 5 percent. lol. What a joke that system is. The last 2 days we made up ground on all the teams we were chasing. What did you expect, the odds to get longer?
August 30, 200620 yr Ya, 2 days ago we were at 5 percent. lol. What a joke that system is. It's almost like teams ahead of us lost and we won which, *gasp* gives us a better shot at the Wild Card. I know FSU doesn't have the toughest of academic standards, but if you can't wrap your mind around that one... :plain
August 30, 200620 yr Author Ya, 2 days ago we were at 5 percent. lol. What a joke that system is. It's almost like teams ahead of us lost and we won which, *gasp* gives us a better shot at the Wild Card. I know FSU doesn't have the toughest of academic standards, but if you can't wrap your mind around that one... :plain OMG. The joke is that for our chances to win the Wild Card in a 162 game season to change 7 percent in 2 days is *gasp* lame.
August 30, 200620 yr Ya, 2 days ago we were at 5 percent. lol. What a joke that system is. It's almost like teams ahead of us lost and we won which, *gasp* gives us a better shot at the Wild Card. I know FSU doesn't have the toughest of academic standards, but if you can't wrap your mind around that one... :plain OMG. The joke is that for our chances to win the Wild Card in a 162 game season to change 7 percent in 2 days is *gasp* lame. No its not. With so few games remaining, a hot run (Marlins) coinciding with a meltdown (Reds) can change percentages dramatically.
August 30, 200620 yr Ya, 2 days ago we were at 5 percent. lol. What a joke that system is. It's almost like teams ahead of us lost and we won which, *gasp* gives us a better shot at the Wild Card. I know FSU doesn't have the toughest of academic standards, but if you can't wrap your mind around that one... :plain OMG. The joke is that for our chances to win the Wild Card in a 162 game season to change 7 percent in 2 days is *gasp* lame. It would be a joke if such a huge change occured realatively early on in the season. However, as we approach the end of the season you can only logically assume that the change in stats will become more significant as the days go by. There are only 31 games left in the season and the Marlins made significant gains in the Wild Card standings, while beating a team competing for the NL Central. Since both St. Louis and Cincinatti lost, there isn't any ground gained or lost by either the Cardinals or the Reds in the NL Central race, all their losses do is decrease the odds the Cards and Reds have at winning the Wild Card. That loss in Wild Card potential has to be distributed amongst the teams gaining which means gains to the Marlins. Besides, with any sort of statistical prediction, there's always a margin of error so a 7% change isn't really, statistically speaking, a 7% change.
August 30, 200620 yr Author I hate statistics. Abhor would be a better word. The Fish are playing well right now, and that's all I care about. If I never saw those percentages again, I would be a happier man.
August 30, 200620 yr With September approaching (and so many of our games left against WC teams) it becomes a very fun statistical study. The Padres have 18 games left against the West, whom they're 27-30 against thus far, meaning they're statistically expected to win 8.5 of those games, and 12 against teams from the Central, against whom they're 17-9, meaning they're expected to win 7.8 of their remaining games, that puts them on pace for 17 wins over their final 30, or 84 wins. The Phillies have 21 remaining games against East teams, against whom they're 28-25, putting them on pace to win 11 of those games (of those, 10 are against us), they also have 9 games remaining against central teams, against whom they've been 14-14 against, putting them on pace for 4.5 wins. That puts them on pace for 16 wins, or 82 for the season. The Giants have 2 games left against the East, whom they're 11-18 against this season, projecting them for .78 wins there; 13 against the central whom they're 15-13 against this season, putting them on pace for 7 wins, and 12 left against the west, whom they're 31-29 against, putting them on pace for 7.4 wins; or 15 wins for the rest of the year; 80 for the season. The Reds are free-falling so stats are out the window there. Finally, the Marlins: 8 against the central (18-13 on the year) 5 expected wins; 3 against the West (12-15 on the year) 1.3 wins expected. 20 against the east (26-29 on the year) 9.5 wins expected; 18 wins; 83 for the year. Thus, expected order of finish: Padres-84 Marlins-83 Phillies-82 Giants-80 :whistle Let's get hot Yes, but just like you threw the Reds stats out the window, you can do the same thing for the marlins. We are no where near the team that started 11-31, so that has to be taken into account. Also, we are in the midst of an incredible run that can't be accounted for with stats or logic... However, I do understand it's fun to play with numbers to try and predict an outcome. Just keep on winning baby!!!
August 30, 200620 yr With September approaching (and so many of our games left against WC teams) it becomes a very fun statistical study. The Padres have 18 games left against the West, whom they're 27-30 against thus far, meaning they're statistically expected to win 8.5 of those games, and 12 against teams from the Central, against whom they're 17-9, meaning they're expected to win 7.8 of their remaining games, that puts them on pace for 17 wins over their final 30, or 84 wins. The Phillies have 21 remaining games against East teams, against whom they're 28-25, putting them on pace to win 11 of those games (of those, 10 are against us), they also have 9 games remaining against central teams, against whom they've been 14-14 against, putting them on pace for 4.5 wins. That puts them on pace for 16 wins, or 82 for the season. The Giants have 2 games left against the East, whom they're 11-18 against this season, projecting them for .78 wins there; 13 against the central whom they're 15-13 against this season, putting them on pace for 7 wins, and 12 left against the west, whom they're 31-29 against, putting them on pace for 7.4 wins; or 15 wins for the rest of the year; 80 for the season. The Reds are free-falling so stats are out the window there. Finally, the Marlins: 8 against the central (18-13 on the year) 5 expected wins; 3 against the West (12-15 on the year) 1.3 wins expected. 20 against the east (26-29 on the year) 9.5 wins expected; 18 wins; 83 for the year. Thus, expected order of finish: Padres-84 Marlins-83 Phillies-82 Giants-80 :whistle Let's get hot Yes, but just like you threw the Reds stats out the window, you can do the same thing for the marlins. We are no where near the team that started 11-31, so that has to be taken into account. Also, we are in the midst of an incredible run that can't be accounted for with stats or logic... However, I do understand it's fun to play with numbers to try and predict an outcome. Just keep on winning baby!!! My point was to show that the Marlins, despite playing god awful for the first 40 games are on pace (unscientifically) to finish at about the top of the heap. Sure there are plenty more ways to statistically evaluate the schedule using home/road splits, direct head to heads and the wonderful "ownage" factor (like the Astros over the Phils). Just enjoy it for what it is, the numbers, in a way, say we belong too, that it's not just a fluke.
August 30, 200620 yr I really have no goals left for this team. I was fairly optimistic coming into this season, but they have still far exceeded my expectations. At this point, there's no way they can be called a disapointment. That being said, if you can win the wildcard, you might as well go for it. :marlins
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