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Baseball Prospectus off-season analysis


Eddie Altamonte
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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5834

I only posted the Marlins but you can see all teams

 

FLORIDA MARLINS

Team Audit | Team DT Cards | Team Articles | Team Statistics Return to Top

 

 

Signed 3B-R Aaron Boone to a one-year contract. [12/29]

 

Signed OF-R Chad Hermansen to a minor league contract with a spring training NRI. [1/5]

 

Signed RHP Felix Rodriguez to a minor league contract with a spring training NRI. [1/12]

 

Agreed to terms with LHP Dontrelle Willis on a one-year contract, avoiding arbitration. [1/15]

 

Agreed to terms with C-R Miguel Olivo on a one-year contract, avoiding arbitration. [1/18]

 

Signed 1B/3B/OF-R Joe Dillon, 1B/OF-R John Gall, UT-B Zach Sorensen, INF-R Jason Wood, 1B/3B-R Scott Seabol, OF-L Alex Sanchez, C-Rs Chris Ashby, Paul Hoover, and Nick Trzesniak, RHPs Roy Corcoran, Nate Field, Lee Gardner, Mike Koplove, Wes Obermueller, Eddy Rodriguez, and Jimmy Serrano, and LHP Chris George to minor league contracts with spring training NRIs. [1/4]

 

Mission Accomplished? The Fish didn't have a master plan this winter, but they also didn't need one. When almost everyone on the 40-man roster is under control and short of service time, you can afford to let the flames on your own hot stove burn out.

 

What Reason Why? The Fish have had some reasonable luck with veteran infield reserves, as they've gotten good work out of Damion Easley and Wes Helms. Aaron Boone will bring that to an end; he was terrible at third for the Indians last year, which doesn't suggest a future in utility work, and his bat seems even more lifeless than his leather. If his contract wasn't guaranteed, he wouldn't be a great bet to beat out guys like Dillon, Wood or Seabol.

 

Obscure Good Move: If Rany's our resident hopelessly optimistic goofball on all knuckleballers, I'm probably our equally-daffy fan of everyone who throws side-arm or lower. Knowing that, you probably won't be surprised that I like seeing Mike Koplove in Miami. I'm an optimist; put the guy in a better ballpark than the former BOB, and the penalties that go with seeing lefties get a little less nasty for the prospective righty situational specialist. That said, it also isn't something to bank on. We all have our blind spots.

 

What's Left to Do? Nothing new. They still need a center fielder, and they still have Reggie Abercrombie, Eric Reed and the power of prayer to choose from. (With his capacity for mischief on the bases and in the field, Alex Sanchez makes for a horrifying alternative; better that GM Admin Beinfest stay on his kneeler.) They still have to hope that Jeremy Hermida bounces back from an ugly season. They still have a huge menu of choices to make from among their many ready or nearly-ready arms for the bullpen, with the only real wild card being whether they tab Ricky Nolasco for closing duties instead of the fifth starter's job.

 

Summary: If you're a Marlins fan who spent the last four months at the beach, you invested your time wisely. There's nothing here you didn't already know and/or wonder about on October 1.

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What Reason Why? The Fish have had some reasonable luck with veteran infield reserves, as they've gotten good work out of Damion Easley and Wes Helms. Aaron Boone will bring that to an end; he was terrible at third for the Indians last year, which doesn't suggest a future in utility work, and his bat seems even more lifeless than his leather. If his contract wasn't guaranteed, he wouldn't be a great bet to beat out guys like Dillon, Wood or Seabol.

 

The BP guy got this right. And I'm also interested in seeing what Koplove can do in DS. Otherwise, a pretty glib assessment. The Marlins can afford to let the hot stove burn out because of the number of players they have under control (with the same holes from 2006 remaining to greater or lesser degrees)? I don't get that logic.

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Abercombie, Reed, & the power of prayer. That is f***ing hysterical!!

 

This guy did sum up our offseason pretty well. While it was frustrating as a fan to see us not make the big move we all coveted- the infamous CF,C, and closer of the future. But this franchise is blessed to have so many talented young players on the cheap. There is plenty of time to wait and no real need to rush. At some point a pitching needy team is going to make a trade on our terms and we will be glad we waited.

 

This is going to be such an exciting season. Can't wait to see what Hanley, Uggla, Olsen, and JJ do in their second years.

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What Reason Why? The Fish have had some reasonable luck with veteran infield reserves, as they've gotten good work out of Damion Easley and Wes Helms. Aaron Boone will bring that to an end; he was terrible at third for the Indians last year, which doesn't suggest a future in utility work, and his bat seems even more lifeless than his leather. If his contract wasn't guaranteed, he wouldn't be a great bet to beat out guys like Dillon, Wood or Seabol.

 

The BP guy got this right. And I'm also interested in seeing what Koplove can do in DS. Otherwise, a pretty glib assessment. The Marlins can afford to let the hot stove burn out because of the number of players they have under control (with the same holes from 2006 remaining to greater or lesser degrees)? I don't get that logic.

i think his point was that we have oodles of pitching and should be more than happy with that...until we give some of it away for a centerfielder that is

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What Reason Why? The Fish have had some reasonable luck with veteran infield reserves, as they've gotten good work out of Damion Easley and Wes Helms. Aaron Boone will bring that to an end; he was terrible at third for the Indians last year, which doesn't suggest a future in utility work, and his bat seems even more lifeless than his leather. If his contract wasn't guaranteed, he wouldn't be a great bet to beat out guys like Dillon, Wood or Seabol.

 

The BP guy got this right. And I'm also interested in seeing what Koplove can do in DS. Otherwise, a pretty glib assessment. The Marlins can afford to let the hot stove burn out because of the number of players they have under control (with the same holes from 2006 remaining to greater or lesser degrees)? I don't get that logic.

i think his point was that we have oodles of pitching and should be more than happy with that...until we give some of it away for a centerfielder that is

 

There are centerfield options out there that do not have to cost us one of our starting pitchers. My main thing is you can't say the offseason went fine when the same holes from 2006 remain (and admit as much), the big signing is Aaron Boone (who the writer thinks is a bum and will be no Easley or Helms) and the solution to our CF and bullpen woes are a bunch of players signed to minor league deals to see which ones stick.

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The problem I see with a lot of the analysis that has come out, is that although CF and closer are the biggest holes, our missing the playoffs last year wa snot solely b/c of those two holes. If you recall ,earlier in the year the starting pitching was struggling. Especially while JJ was still in the pen. So, if the starters start off well and carry it through, we should be better than last year, even without a better Cf. Which of course, in my opinion is much less necessary than a solid closer. We can win without a good Cf'er we cant win without a closer.

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The problem I see with a lot of the analysis that has come out, is that although CF and closer are the biggest holes, our missing the playoffs last year wa snot solely b/c of those two holes. If you recall ,earlier in the year the starting pitching was struggling. Especially while JJ was still in the pen. So, if the starters start off well and carry it through, we should be better than last year, even without a better Cf. Which of course, in my opinion is much less necessary than a solid closer. We can win without a good Cf'er we cant win without a closer.

I sooo beg to differ... our collapse came at the implosion of the bullpen...The Bullpen could not hold a lead of any kind and Beinfest's moves in the off-season concurs with this view. Tank was the only reliever who was getting anyone out

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The BP guy got this right. And I'm also interested in seeing what Koplove can do in DS. Otherwise, a pretty glib assessment. The Marlins can afford to let the hot stove burn out because of the number of players they have under control (with the same holes from 2006 remaining to greater or lesser degrees)? I don't get that logic.

All teams have holes. Championship teams minimize the impact of theirs. I think his point is that the team has a good base and the development of their young players and minor leaguers will keep the team competitive in spite of the holes the Marlins will choose to address or not.

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The BP guy got this right. And I'm also interested in seeing what Koplove can do in DS. Otherwise, a pretty glib assessment. The Marlins can afford to let the hot stove burn out because of the number of players they have under control (with the same holes from 2006 remaining to greater or lesser degrees)? I don't get that logic.

All teams have holes. Championship teams minimize the impact of theirs. I think his point is that the team has a good base and the development of their young players and minor leaguers will keep the team competitive in spite of the holes the Marlins will choose to address or not.

 

Right. But this was an analysis of the Marlins offseason transactions and how they will be effected in 2007, not the longterm future. And the Marlins have not done much to minimize their holes in 2007 and added to that a loss of bench depth/strength on top of that. In a team that is filled with average to below average fielders at every position, it is a shame they haven't at least picked up someone to fill the void in centerfield. If you aren't going to pick up a solid bat, at least pick up someone who can cover the centerfield ground in DS and hit at least at Amezaga level. Ideally you pick up someone who can do both. And there is no prospect in our system who looks to be a solution there next season or in the longterm future. The bullpen looks to be solid in the longterm future, sure, but once again this was an analysis of the Marlins offseason transactions and how they improve/hurt the Marlins chances in 2007 - and what we've got so far doesn't cut it.

 

BTW, on the whole glib analysis thing, I noticed Christina Kahrl left out some of our most important additions so far - Gregg, Owens and Lindstrom.

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What bothers me is that most analysts look at the Marlins and say "eh, they're young and not ready to hit arbitration" when we as educated fans know the second that Hanley, Uggla, Ramirez, Sanchez, JJ, Olsen and Hermida are all sitting in the same arbitration schedule (to say nothing of Miggy and Dontrelle) we're blowing the thing up again.

 

To a team with a reasonable financial plan, we're not meant to be competing until 2008 or 2009, but in our situation, we can't afford to wait that long.

 

Basically, the point being that the Marlins offseason should be looked at as nothing short of an epic failure considering the abundance of young pitching we have to deal for 2 things: a closer and a centerfielder.

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What bothers me is that most analysts look at the Marlins and say "eh, they're young and not ready to hit arbitration" when we as educated fans know the second that Hanley, Uggla, Ramirez, Sanchez, JJ, Olsen and Hermida are all sitting in the same arbitration schedule (to say nothing of Miggy and Dontrelle) we're blowing the thing up again.

 

To a team with a reasonable financial plan, we're not meant to be competing until 2008 or 2009, but in our situation, we can't afford to wait that long.

 

Basically, the point being that the Marlins offseason should be looked at as nothing short of an epic failure considering the abundance of young pitching we have to deal for 2 things: a closer and a centerfielder.

 

Unless Beinfest decides to adopt the approach of some other GMs on budgets that buy out some of the more talented players arby years, you are unfortunately right. As far as the group of players you named above, while most of them will become arby eligible in 2009, I believe Sanchez will not be arby eligible until 2010.

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Once ownership knows precisely what their contribution will be (my guess, $250 million in cash and rent) and issues regarding lease terms are worked out (whether their control over the venue is absolute), with money flowing into MLB I have to believe we'll have a $70-80 million dollar payroll within two or three seasons. It's the uncertainty regarding the future that has caused the franchise to go down this road.

 

That said, no stadium this time, Swift will be right. But then again if there's no deal with MLB involved, there won't be any Marlins either.

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The BP guy got this right. And I'm also interested in seeing what Koplove can do in DS. Otherwise, a pretty glib assessment. The Marlins can afford to let the hot stove burn out because of the number of players they have under control (with the same holes from 2006 remaining to greater or lesser degrees)? I don't get that logic.

All teams have holes. Championship teams minimize the impact of theirs. I think his point is that the team has a good base and the development of their young players and minor leaguers will keep the team competitive in spite of the holes the Marlins will choose to address or not.

 

Right. But this was an analysis of the Marlins offseason transactions and how they will be effected in 2007, not the longterm future. And the Marlins have not done much to minimize their holes in 2007 and added to that a loss of bench depth/strength on top of that. In a team that is filled with average to below average fielders at every position, it is a shame they haven't at least picked up someone to fill the void in centerfield. If you aren't going to pick up a solid bat, at least pick up someone who can cover the centerfield ground in DS and hit at least at Amezaga level. Ideally you pick up someone who can do both. And there is no prospect in our system who looks to be a solution there next season or in the longterm future. The bullpen looks to be solid in the longterm future, sure, but once again this was an analysis of the Marlins offseason transactions and how they improve/hurt the Marlins chances in 2007 - and what we've got so far doesn't cut it.

 

BTW, on the whole glib analysis thing, I noticed Christina Kahrl left out some of our most important additions so far - Gregg, Owens and Lindstrom.

Again, all teams have holes. To address them, teams can do two things. Acquire better players and develop better players. If Ramirez, Olsen and Hermida improve, then the hole at CF or the bullpen will not have as great of an impact as they did past season. Most teams do both. The author's point is the Marlins are less reliant on acquiring players than other teams.

 

 

And if I might say, TSwift makes a solid point but his concern goes well beyond what most people would call pessimistic.

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What bothers me is that most analysts look at the Marlins and say "eh, they're young and not ready to hit arbitration" when we as educated fans know the second that Hanley, Uggla, Ramirez, Sanchez, JJ, Olsen and Hermida are all sitting in the same arbitration schedule (to say nothing of Miggy and Dontrelle) we're blowing the thing up again.

With all the pitching in the minors, we won't be having an issue here because we will easily be able to field entire staffs without going outside of the organization for seasons. Likewise with the hitters, Cabrera is the only one to worry about because he's all generational type of player that's very unique to a payroll structure where you simply have to keep him no mater what the cost is. SS numbers for arbitration are relatively low (unless Hanley is going to turn into a 25+ HR masher sooner rather then later), Hermida seems to be the type to grow into the player he will become so he won't have as hard an arby impact, and the rest - Uggla, Jacobs, Willingham, etc, will all probably cease being useful compared to their future salaries in their 4th and 5th years in the league and will probably naturally be replaced by younger players (see the Braves handling of LaRoche) down the road. We won't have any sort of payroll issues even when they all hit arbitration at the same time. This is all assuming the Marlins move back into an average bottom 10 payroll of course.

 

The issue we have is, will our retarded ownership give the green light to secure Cabrera for 7-8 years after this season. That's the only serious question for payroll for at least 5 seasons.

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What bothers me is that most analysts look at the Marlins and say "eh, they're young and not ready to hit arbitration" when we as educated fans know the second that Hanley, Uggla, Ramirez, Sanchez, JJ, Olsen and Hermida are all sitting in the same arbitration schedule (to say nothing of Miggy and Dontrelle) we're blowing the thing up again.

This is all assuming the Marlins move back into an average bottom 10 payroll of course.

 

The issue we have is, will our retarded ownership give the green light to secure Cabrera for 7-8 years after this season. That's the only serious question for payroll for at least 5 seasons.

 

Big assumption.

 

And for the second point, my guess is no.

 

I've long maintained that Miggy must be locked up now, because the closer he gets to free agency and the prospect of getting the second $200 million contract, the more likely he is to just play out the string with us.

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Big assumption.

 

And for the second point, my guess is no.

 

I've long maintained that Miggy must be locked up now, because the closer he gets to free agency and the prospect of getting the second $200 million contract, the more likely he is to just play out the string with us.

Is it a big assumption to think the Marlins will have average salaries in the $40 million range 2009-2010? I don't think so, but hey, I'd never imagine they'd be under $20 mil in 2006. By then the stadium situation will be taken care of - here or elsewhere - and I think they'll be very interested in keeping the young base core (Cabrera, Hanley, Hermida, whichever SP survive the bloodbath, my guess Olsen and Anibal) together. I think they'll pay Cabrera... eventually. No one thought Beane would ever sign anyone after letting Tejada and Giambi walk, and then he gave Chavez the deal. I see the Marlins doing the same thing at some point and building the team around him. They may be cheap, but they aren't stupid. They can afford to give him a bajillion dollars with the amount of young talent around him offsetting costs. Dishing Dontrelle for the motherload next off season will greatly help this as well.

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We need to be patient in 2007.

 

This year will be a season when we get to see which of our young players will be Marlins in the future and where the holes will be for 2008. Once the new stadium deal is in place, there will be less financial restrains and a two or three free agents will probably be enough to complete a playoff contending team in 2008.

 

I doubt that the front office will pay Cabrera a $200 million multi year contract. They will ship him to the Yankees, the Red Sox or some other big spender for their best prospects and a decent 3B. So lets try to enjoy his play in the next 2-3 years while we have him.

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What bothers me is that most analysts look at the Marlins and say "eh, they're young and not ready to hit arbitration" when we as educated fans know the second that Hanley, Uggla, Ramirez, Sanchez, JJ, Olsen and Hermida are all sitting in the same arbitration schedule (to say nothing of Miggy and Dontrelle) we're blowing the thing up again.

This is all assuming the Marlins move back into an average bottom 10 payroll of course.

 

The issue we have is, will our retarded ownership give the green light to secure Cabrera for 7-8 years after this season. That's the only serious question for payroll for at least 5 seasons.

 

Big assumption.

 

And for the second point, my guess is no.

 

I've long maintained that Miggy must be locked up now, because the closer he gets to free agency and the prospect of getting the second $200 million contract, the more likely he is to just play out the string with us.

I agree Cabs contract needs to be redone as soon as a stadium agreement is reached not a minute later, He needs to be the cornerstone for this franchise for the next 10 years

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Re: Re-signing Cabrera.

 

It's likely not going to be all about money. Cabrera will want assurances that the club will be stable throughout the contract, that they will compliment him with the necessary players to win, and that he will not be traded. Even if he wanted to, Beinfest, nor even Loria, can promise that with a straight face right now or ever. So, while re-signing Cabrera is important and should be near the top of things to do, there's a few things that top it. And with all the risks involved (and there being 3 years remaining until Cabrera hits free agency), it probably makes more sense to put contingency plans ahead on that list.

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