champkind

Wow, imagine the prospects we could get for JJ NOW!!!!

Wow, imagine the prospects we could get for JJ NOW!!!!

As I watched the game yesterday a few thoughts kept going through my head: -Is it really possible Beinfest envisoned all this w/ EB and this could be one of those trades people talk about for years to come -Is Darren Daulton the new Erick/Marlins Lou? Dalton, Erick, and Lou are all extremely different, especially Dalton from the last two. Yeah, I have no idea what he means here? I meant that yesterday i read through a 10 page debate on EB's qualifications to hit leadoff with Daulton leading the "trust the FO crowd" with Erick leading the "no logic to EB batting leadoff" crowd. Suffice it to say I thought/think? EB has no business leading off and I usually rely on Lou and Erick's posts as the voice of reason/sound logic/through analysis. Think of it like bizzaro world. If EB turned in the best leadoff performance in Marlins history (hyperbole) than maybe DD is the new Marlins Lou/Erick.

As I watched the game yesterday a few thoughts kept going through my head: -Is it really possible Beinfest envisoned all this w/ EB and this could be one of those trades people talk about for years to come -Is Darren Daulton the new Erick/Marlins Lou?

RVH would be my first choice. I know we're a long way from Opening Day, but if a slightly hobbled 5th starter is our only concern we should count ourselves very lucky. The reality of going through an entire season with a set 5 guys is not at all realistic. We just need Ricky and Josh to stay healthy and Volstad to not completely regress/sophomore slump and we are so far ahead of last year its re-god-damn-diculous.

It's funny how in looking back I can't criticize Beinfest for going after Jorge Julio or Armando Part Deux-he was trying to capture lightning in a bottle. The only mistake was in giving those two more opportunities to blow games then they deserved. While Randy Messenger may or not be a nice guy, he is inconsequential as a player and completely replaceable. And if Petit is in line as the 4th starter for the Diamondbacks, then that is one sorry ass pitching staff. Until I see otherwise I will assume Petit has no chance to survive as a starter in baseball. And I've always looked at those moves as complete botches by the FO when they seem perfectly reasonable now.

I'm just a little worried about the Marlins right now. The reason they were winning games last season was because of the offense and it won't be as good in 2009 as it was in 2008. I don't think the Marlins can afford to trade Uggla right now. I'm not a believer in AA stats and projecting that guys like Coghlan could step in and produce anywhere near the level of Uggla. AA pitchers are nowhere near the quality of major league pitchers and that is a fact. You can mark Uggla down for 100 runs scored, 30 homers and 90 RBIs for 2009 but what kind of numbers would Coghlan, Bonifacio or Andino put up? At some point the Marlins have to quit being cheap and Uggla is without a doubt the 2nd best position player on the Marlins right now and that's not debateable. I really just don't see the upside of trading him because I'm not so certain the Marlins would get quite the haul that a lot of you do. You sure about that? Because I disagree completely. Baseball is a team sport. C - .251/.323/.340 (.664), and now we have a full year of Baker and whoever replacing Treanor/Rabelo. This could go up 100 OPS points easily. That is an enormous enormous improvement. 1B - .253/.304/.506 (.811). This is completely empty with that OBP, and when Gaby and friends make this a .280/.340/.450 line, the effects of Jacobs will be understood. Not losing anything here. This might be an upgrade even with a lower expected team OPS at the position because of the huge OBP upgrade. 2B - .259/.351/.497 (.848). This is probably going down a little but, not much but I'd say 20-30 OPS points. This is a relative wash with Uggla. Agree completely this is a likely 100 OPS drop without him which is why I want to keep him around for 2009, but this isn't a big deal. SS - .303/.396/.530 (.926). He'll do it again. 3B - .270/.324/.438 (.761). Yea this is pretty low. You can thank Helm's 128 AB with a lower than .600 OPS here. This is easily going up as a combination of Cantu, McDallas mashing only righties, and Helms mashing only lefties which he can hit, is going to happen. I pray Bonifacio does not play much here, but I'm pretty confident he won't as we have 4 corner IF options. LF - .270/.366/.467 (.833). Now we have a problem, and I'm going to do Ross here and not Hermida for simplicity. Willingham and Gonzalez had very solid years in LF for us, and it's going to be tough for Ross to replicate this by himself, especially with no 4th OF. This is probably going down 30-50 OPS points unless Ross keeps up the offense versus right handers. I really hope we bring in a left handed LF guy to help him out here. CF - .262/.318/.432 (.750). I'm very confident, at a minimum, Maybin can hit this. RF - .243/.311/.407 (.718). We don't need to get into the Hermida debate, but regardless of who plays here next year, this is going to go up. The team is not going to allow this to happen in right field again. So basically, (the number that follows are realistic OPS bumps or decreases in production) Increases - Catcher (75), Third Base (50), Right Field (50) Wash - First Base, Shortstop, Center Field Decreases - Second Base (30), Left Field (50) This is pretty damn fair, and it is really undercutting the impact Baker, Hermida, and Ross can each make because Baker could easily hit more than a mid 700 OPS, and the corner outfielders could easily both be over an .800 OPS, and not in the .775 range which I'm presenting above just for arguments sake. The team is better offensively right now than the 2008 season simply because we're going to get a lot more out of those three positions. It's going to take a significant injury to Hanley, Uggla, or an outfielder to not improve here. Our kids can play. You shouldn't be worried about McPherson, Maybin, Sanchez, and Baker. They don't have to do much to equal or better last year's performance. The real key to the whole offense is Hermida. If he shows up like 2007, the offense is going to be phenomenal and we're going to score tons of more runs. If he is the next Teahen, we'll still be as good or better. That's a nice gamble to have. (And longterm, we could be developing four .850 OPS monster players with Stanton, Morrison, Dominguez, and Skipworth, and other average MLB bats from Coghlan, Cousins, Raynor, Petersen, Smolinski, and Bonifacio. The offense isn't going anywhere anytime soon). Also, let's hypothetically take Uggla out. Way up - Catcher (75), Third Base (50), Right Field (50) Wash - First Base, Shortstop, Center Field Decreases - Second Base (100), Left Field (50) See how the offense is still better than 2008 (granted this is a crude analysis, but you get the idea), and again, if Baker, Hermida, and Ross hit higher than the .750-.775, the team takes off. This isn't a big deal for the Marlins. We should keep Dan for 2009 to give Coghlan and Bonifacio another year to develop, but if Coghlan does it again in AAA, it's going to be time to move Dan for that A+ "Aldersen" style pitching prospect and go with the scrappy slap hitters. His gains in offense over the potential replacements is not going to be worth $7-10 million dollars. Right now at the $4.5-5 million range and Coghlan just out of AA, sure. Things probably change in 2010. Maybe even the deadline. Let's take it further also about the Marlins, defensively, the corner IF slots are going up huge, and the new outfield arrangement is an even bigger upgrade as well. The team is going to win 3-5 more games simply on defense next year. And we have our 5 starting pitchers ready to go, where we won't be giving 38 starts to Hendrickson, Badenhop, Tucker, and Cruz next year. Huge upgrade. Even if Nolasco comes down, and Anibal/Miller throw high 4 eras, this is an upgrade. We could use a 6th SP though, but we'll keep an eye on that over the rest of the offseason just so we don't have to resort to Vanden Hurk or Badenhop again. As we've gone over in other threads, we have 20 bullpen arms all at AA or above. We don't have problems there. The only issue is going to be competition by attrition and figuring out which ones are going to make it. I'm very optimistic by the end of the year we have Lindstrom, Nunez, Tucker, Ceda, and Cruz throwing fireballs, and hopefully Pinto and Kroenke/Meyer/Tank producing a bit from the left. Really like the pen longterm. Again, why are you worried about the Marlins? It's very legitimate to think this team is improved offensively, defensively, and pitching wise right now. And our farm is loaded. None of what I've typed is a stretch or could be considered overly homerish. This is pretty damn objective, and really not expecting much out Baker, Ross, Hermida, McPherson, Sanchez, Maybin, and the starters. Sure we should have done better with the Olsen trade, and we still need a veteran bullpen/6th starter and a left handed 4th outfielder, but those are very minor things when it comes down to it compared to where we are. We're in great shape even if Beinfest still makes some bone-headed Nelson moves here and there. Jesus Christ that was thorough! Well done sir.

I think those scumbag fans in Philly would eat him alive.

To me this only confirms that the Marlins are one of the few teams who "gets it". Lavisihing these kinds of guaranteed deals on guys so late in their careers is crazy. I'm not hating on Dempster, good for him. Put a little back into the south Florida economy. But the Marlins plan of getting highly productive years out of guys while making little money (first 3 years) to somewhat moderate money (Uggla in his arbitration years) and then flipping the player for prospects within a year of FA just makes too much sense. Ofcourse, this plan only works when there are enough teams that throw around big dollars like the big market teams always do.

I think we all do and secretly we all have that one player we think they might go get, hidden somewhere in the back of our minds, thinking it's to outlandish to even mention the name. Barry Bonds! David Eckstein!

Can someone please tell me that this guy is awesome. Please. This guy is just like Ryan Tucker. Big time plus fastball, projects positively as a plus power reliever. Beinfest is assembling quite a young bullpen. This is the best trade of the three of them so far. Thank you. I'm starting to realize that I had completely unrealistic expectations of what the Olsen&Gregg trades would net. But atleast this and the Jacobs trade should really set us up with a strong, cheap bullpen for the next several years.

The Marlins will get Jose Ceda from the Cubs for Kevin Gregg, the Miami Herald confirms. We'd hardly call it a great trade for Florida, but that's a better return than they received in the previous deal as part of their latest fire sale. -This is from Rotoworld. Can someone please tell me that this guy is awesome. Please.

That's one of the crappiest lists of players I've ever seen. Except David Eckstein ofcourse.

?Obviously we like him a lot. He was among the top hitters in all of baseball last year, I think ranking 11th or 12th. And you know he plays in a really big ballpark,? Royals general manager Dayton Moore said. ?Has a lot of power to the middle of the field. Has a lot of energy, plays with enthusiasm, plays to win and he?s a personality. He gives us a middle of the lineup presence.? Did Beinfest feed him lies or is he feeding lies to Royals fans? 11th or 12th best hitter in baseball? Is he retarded? He's not top 20 in sh*t, not even anything as irrelevant as RBI. Do you think he maybe got him confused with someone else? Wait a second. Did we just trade a guy who has energy AND plays with enthusiasm and personality. IF I find out he also has heart and hustle I will be pissed. Dayton Moore just became my favorite GM.

Our style has been working, no change necessary. Yeah I kind of like the whole leading the league in homeruns, top 6 in runs scored kind of thing.