I hope he comes around. I made an investment in Hermida, buying an autographed card for $3.50

My bad. Still a far better BA. And far, far more TBs. Less strikeouts per AB.

 

But I do stand corrected. :notworthy (It's hard doing this on a phone.)

It's good to know Jeremy Hermida who appears to be headed south of the Mendoza Line any minute now and who has hit .156 in his last ten games is now being compared to David Ortiz. And to BJ Upton who is on the DL. And no, Delmon Young is not having a worse year than JH, not unless you think Hermida's .219/.309/.406 line is better than Young's .285/.335/.445 line. Do you?

 

And if you think the Marlins are prepared to wait five years for Hermida to come into his own you have to see the folly in that line of thinking. For everyone complaining about Amezaga, Olivo and Treanor and how awful they are they're all playing better baseball and putting up better stats than Hermida. He's the blackhole in the lineup not the other guys.

 

That said I still think the kid has potential to be an everyday major leaguer. He could start by taking his defense more seriously which one would think is the easiest area of his game to improve and if he did I for one would be much more forgiving of his offensive woes which I think at this point are more mental than anything. As the topic suggests he may need a new start somewhere else but I'd still like to see what he can after he hits rock-bottom and has a chance in the second half to redeem himself.

 

I'm comparing him to them because they are all big time prospects who struggled their first year or two.

 

And Hermida is having a better season than Young. Young's got a 4/1 K/BB, Hermida's got a 2/1 K/BB. The avg doesn't mean anything since he doesn't walk all that much, and the Total bases which you cited in your next post are a product of him having more than 2 times as many at bats as Hermida.

 

Olivo has a .270 OBP. That is the very definition of a black hole. Hermida's got much more upside than Olivo, Treanor, or Amezaga, and he's had bad luck. That says to me that he's due for a big time 2nd half.

And Hermida is having a better season than Young. Young's got a 4/1 K/BB, Hermida's got a 2/1 K/BB. The avg doesn't mean anything since he doesn't walk all that much, and the Total bases which you cited in your next post are a product of him having more than 2 times as many at bats as Hermida.

 

I think what you mean is the only stats that count are the stats you say count. I'm willing to bet average would mean something if it was the other way around.

 

And in fact Hermida strikes out more frequently than Young. Hermida 45 in 155 at bats, Young 65 in 321 at bats. But you know what, if complain about selective stat use I shouldn't do it either.

 

Let me just say I think your analogy is a hollow one. Obviously you disagree.

And Hermida is having a better season than Young. Young's got a 4/1 K/BB, Hermida's got a 2/1 K/BB. The avg doesn't mean anything since he doesn't walk all that much, and the Total bases which you cited in your next post are a product of him having more than 2 times as many at bats as Hermida.

 

I think what you mean is the only stats that count are the stats you say count. I'm willing to bet average would mean something if it was the other way around.

 

And in fact Hermida strikes out more frequently than Young. Hermida 45 in 155 at bats, Young 65 in 321 at bats. But you know what, if complain about selective stat use I shouldn't do it either.

 

Let me just say I think your analogy is a hollow one. Obviously you disagree.

 

He strikes out more per at bat, but he also walks more per strikeout. I think that is a more important factor when judging a struggling player's skill level, because it shows that he is seeing the ball and getting on base.

 

Average doesn't mean anything, and even if Hermida had a .300 average it wouldn't mean anything if he walked 15 times in 300 at bats. The thing about Hermida is that he doesn't have to hit .300 to be productive, he can hit .250 and he'll have a .360 OBP and be well above league average. Thats why he's going to be a productive player, and it's also why he'll probably be underappreciated for the enitrety of his Marlins career.

 

Also, it is a testament to Hermida's skill that he is outslugging Young despite batting 50 points lower than him. It shows he's making good contact when he puts bat on ball, and along with an extremely good walk rate he's seeing the ball well. Those two things say to me that he is going to put up much better 2nd half stats than he did in the first half.

personally...i think its useless to defend anyone hitting .220...but whatever...i dont worship at the altar of OPS

personally...i think its useless to defend anyone hitting .220...but whatever...i dont worship at the altar of OPS

 

Congratulations on your ignorance!!!!

personally...i think its useless to defend anyone hitting .220...but whatever...i dont worship at the altar of OPS

 

Congratulations on your ignorance!!!!

 

 

:lol :lol

personally...i think its useless to defend anyone hitting .220...but whatever...i dont worship at the altar of OPS

Well OPS is a lot more important than AVG but Hermida is also stinking it up in the OPS department.

 

I guess if you compare Hermida's OPS with samples that include pitchers and catchers, like his apologist like to do, then he almost looks okay, but still below average, but those are retarded comparisons.

personally...i think its useless to defend anyone hitting .220...but whatever...i dont worship at the altar of OPS

Well OPS is a lot more important than AVG but Hermida is also stinking it up in the OPS department.

 

I guess if you compare Hermida's OPS with samples that include pitchers and catchers, like his apologist like to do, then he almost looks okay, but still below average, but those are retarded comparisons.

 

You compare him to the rest of the league, just like you do every single other player in the league.

personally...i think its useless to defend anyone hitting .220...but whatever...i dont worship at the altar of OPS

Well OPS is a lot more important than AVG but Hermida is also stinking it up in the OPS department.

 

I guess if you compare Hermida's OPS with samples that include pitchers and catchers, like his apologist like to do, then he almost looks okay, but still below average, but those are retarded comparisons.

 

You compare him to the rest of the league, just like you do every single other player in the league.

He's a corner OF and he should be compared with his peers.. other corner OFs. If you want to compare his hitting abilities with pitchers and catchers that's fine with me. It's retarded but you're entitled to do it.

personally...i think its useless to defend anyone hitting .220...but whatever...i dont worship at the altar of OPS

 

Congratulations on your ignorance!!!!

congrats on resorting to namecalling because i dont subscribe to .OPS monthly...but i like their slogan..."where striking out dont mean a damn thing"

personally...i think its useless to defend anyone hitting .220...but whatever...i dont worship at the altar of OPS

 

Congratulations on your ignorance!!!!

congrats on resorting to namecalling because i dont subscribe to .OPS monthly...but i like their slogan..."where striking out dont mean a damn thing"

 

Congrats on ignoring every advancement made in baseball analysis in the past 25 years. I'm assuming you think wins and ERA are the best way to judge pitchers too, huh?

personally...i think its useless to defend anyone hitting .220...but whatever...i dont worship at the altar of OPS

Well OPS is a lot more important than AVG but Hermida is also stinking it up in the OPS department.

 

I guess if you compare Hermida's OPS with samples that include pitchers and catchers, like his apologist like to do, then he almost looks okay, but still below average, but those are retarded comparisons.

 

You compare him to the rest of the league, just like you do every single other player in the league.

He's a corner OF and he should be compared with his peers.. other corner OFs. If you want to compare his hitting abilities with pitchers and catchers that's fine with me. It's retarded but you're entitled to do it.

 

I understand your point, and he's been below average for a corner outfielder. But he's also been extremely unlucky thus far this year as ensam showed which is due to catch up.

You know the cold-blooded stat guys are in trouble when they find a stat that takes into account "bad luck".

personally...i think its useless to defend anyone hitting .220...but whatever...i dont worship at the altar of OPS

Well OPS is a lot more important than AVG but Hermida is also stinking it up in the OPS department.

 

I guess if you compare Hermida's OPS with samples that include pitchers and catchers, like his apologist like to do, then he almost looks okay, but still below average, but those are retarded comparisons.

 

You compare him to the rest of the league, just like you do every single other player in the league.

He's a corner OF and he should be compared with his peers.. other corner OFs. If you want to compare his hitting abilities with pitchers and catchers that's fine with me. It's retarded but you're entitled to do it.

 

I understand your point, and he's been below average for a corner outfielder. But he's also been extremely unlucky thus far this year as ensam showed which is due to catch up.

I'm not sure what Esam said but I think it had something to do with his balls in play AVG. If that's it once again I disagree.

 

If his balls in play AVG improves I don't think luck will have much to do with it. If it improves I think it'll improve primarily because he'll start hitting more line drives and fewer lazy flyballs and fewer soft grounders.

You know the cold-blooded stat guys are in trouble when they find a stat that takes into account "bad luck".

i guess much like anything else...you can overanalyze baseball...there is a reason why after 150 years...people still look at era, wins, batting average, hrs, and rbi''s to tell the story of a particular game rather than guesstimates

You know the cold-blooded stat guys are in trouble when they find a stat that takes into account "bad luck".

i guess much like anything else...you can overanalyze baseball...there is a reason why after 150 years...people still look at era, wins, batting average, hrs, and rbi''s to tell the story of a particular game rather than guesstimates

 

People who are paid alot of money to make decisions about baseball (your Billy Beanes, Your Bill James', basically any GM) don't really look at era, wins, ba, hr, or rbi. The people who do are people like Tim McCarver, Joe Morgan, and John Kruk (i.e. stupid people). There's a reason Billy Beane has had so much success eschewing common knowledge in favor of "sabrmetrics", and there's a reason most teams in baseball are following his lead.

And no, Delmon Young is not having a worse year than JH, not unless you think Hermida's .219/.309/.406 line is better than Young's .285/.335/.445 line. Do you?

 

I'm not sure where you got your stats from, but Young is hitting .271/.301/.405. So Young has less OBP and SLG, though he does have a signficant advantage in AVG...but, I don't think this board needs yet another "AVG sucks" debate going on.

 

And as I said before, Hermida's BABIP is doing poorly, which shows he has been unlucky.

 

I mean, you look at the home/away splits, what this original thread was about, and you're looking at the difference between a normal/slightly above average babip (.328) when he's been away (to go along with a .862 OPS) and a horrible babip at home (.170) to go with a horrible OPS (.537).

 

So just shows he's been unlucky. Once his babip evens out, his numbers will go up.

 

I

You know the cold-blooded stat guys are in trouble when they find a stat that takes into account "bad luck".

i guess much like anything else...you can overanalyze baseball...there is a reason why after 150 years...people still look at era, wins, batting average, hrs, and rbi''s to tell the story of a particular game rather than guesstimates

Yeah the Allard Bairds, Dave Littlefields, Jim Bowdens and Joe Morgans of the baseball world. :lol :lol :lol

WE'RE holding Hermida back? that's rich. I like him, don't get me wrong, but he's the one who needs to step up and realize all his supposed potential.

You know the cold-blooded stat guys are in trouble when they find a stat that takes into account "bad luck".

 

 

 

I mean seriously. I thought I had seen it all.

 

 

News flash folks. Sustained bad luck does not exist. I will maybe agree that one can experience "short term bad luck" but seriously, some of you must be joking.

News flash folks. Sustained bad luck does not exist. I will maybe agree that one can experience "short term bad luck" but seriously, some of you must be joking.

 

Let's look at the flip side of that, since it's the best current player example I can think of.

 

Dmitri Young is 33 years old, and had been in and out of baseball last year.

 

And yet so far this year, he has the highest AVG of his life. He's never been above .310 before, and was a .289 career hitter coming into this year.

 

He's now hitting .335. Blowing away his career numbers even though he's on the decline and hadn't seen consistantly playing time in a long time.

 

How could that be?

 

He has a .373 BABIP this year, 50 points above his career BABIP.

 

So yes, I'd say his .335 AVG this year is a result of "luck".

 

And he has over 100 ABs than Hermida.

 

sh*t happens, and it can keep happening. There really isn't much of a distance difference between a hit and an out made, most of the time.

You know the cold-blooded stat guys are in trouble when they find a stat that takes into account "bad luck".

 

 

 

I mean seriously. I thought I had seen it all.

 

 

News flash folks. Sustained bad luck does not exist. I will maybe agree that one can experience "short term bad luck" but seriously, some of you must be joking.

 

Thats absolutely untrue. It is untrue for both pitchers and hitters, and it is because for the most part a player cannot control what happens to the ball once it is put into play. That is why from year to year there is very little fluctuation on BABIP, yet player by player there is. It explains why one guy can strike out 75 times, walk 100 times, and hit 50 home runs 2 years in a row and yet one year hit like .325 and the next hit .290. That is another big reason why batting average isn't a good indicator of skill.

 

And what we are all arguing is that Hermida is going through some short term bad luck, and that over the course of the season, hopefully it will balance out, since it does for most players. Hermida's going to have like a 2 week stretch where he hits .450 and all of the bloop hits fall in and Tommy will attribute it to him "getting his confidence back" or some such nonsense and, thanks to this thread you will be able to smile knowingly, because you will know that it's simply regression to the mean.

Just to make sure I understand this BABIP thing... so it doesn't really matter how hard the hitter hits the ball or how fast he gets down the first base line because in the end it all comes down to luck, right?