August 16, 200718 yr We're not in that stupid cone of doom so hopefully this is Ball One as far as hurricanes ago. For FL anyway. looking at the five day forecast, it's looking like a similar path to wilma, so don't say anything yet. for all we know, it could curve east on the gulf and wham us from the west coast of the state. still too early to tell of florida's fate, but it seems unlikely for a direct hit on the fl east coast.
August 16, 200718 yr We're not in that stupid cone of doom so hopefully this is Ball One as far as hurricanes ago. For FL anyway. looking at the five day forecast, it's looking like a similar path to wilma, so don't say anything yet. for all we know, it could curve east on the gulf and wham us from the west coast of the state. still too early to tell of florida's fate, but it seems unlikely for a direct hit on the fl east coast. Wilma was an October storm, however, and was in the area of the Carribean where October storms head towards Florida. We shall know more by tonights 00z model runs as it will have aircraft recon information AND the Gulfstream Atmospheric Jet readings of the atmosphere surrounding and ahead of Dean. The GFDL model maybe has begun a trend in the models. It has Dean turning northwest into the Central Gulf later in the track forecast. The GFDL performs pretty well with tracks the past few years, so much so, that the NHC shifted the track more northerly in deference to the GFDL. We'll have to see if this is a trend. If so, We could be in for a very bad storm (loop current in the Gulf is almost untouched this year).
August 16, 200718 yr Author Wilma was an October storm, however, and was in the area of the Carribean where October storms head towards Florida. We shall know more by tonights 00z model runs as it will have aircraft recon information AND the Gulfstream Atmospheric Jet readings of the atmosphere surrounding and ahead of Dean. The GFDL model maybe has begun a trend in the models. It has Dean turning northwest into the Central Gulf later in the track forecast. The GFDL performs pretty well with tracks the past few years, so much so, that the NHC shifted the track more northerly in deference to the GFDL. We'll have to see if this is a trend. If so, We could be in for a very bad storm (loop current in the Gulf is almost untouched this year). GFDL really doesn't like the Crescent City.....it puts Dean as a Category 4 Hurricane hitting just west of NOLA...which would be the worst-case scenario for the PWNage of New Orleans.
August 16, 200718 yr Dean is now at 100 MPH. i've been over at the wunderground blogs for a day or so, and pretty much, it's doomsday for whoever gets it. it's that powerful. keys now in the cone of doom, south florida could be next...
August 16, 200718 yr Author Dean is now at 100 MPH. i've been over at the wunderground blogs for a day or so, and pretty much, it's doomsday for whoever gets it. it's that powerful. keys now in the cone of doom, south florida could be next... What cone are you looking at? No part of Florida is in the cone of error.
August 16, 200718 yr Florida isnt getting anything related to the furor of Dean. Its headed for somewhere in the western Gulf. I hope its Houston, if its gotta be anywhere. Or somewhere between Corpus and Brownsville, since there is nothing there but a few thousand cows.
August 16, 200718 yr Dean is now at 100 MPH. i've been over at the wunderground blogs for a day or so, and pretty much, it's doomsday for whoever gets it. it's that powerful. keys now in the cone of doom, south florida could be next... What cone are you looking at? No part of Florida is in the cone of error. Seriously, what on earth are you looking at? :blink:
August 17, 200718 yr The models are very much in agreement for the next 4-5 days with a possible category 4 in the Cozumel/Cancun area by Monday.
August 17, 200718 yr Author Models have not been consistent day in, day out with Dean....so until it passes an area...they aren't clear.
August 17, 200718 yr I'm interested to see what the major models bring at the 00z run. FWIW, Tropical Depression Erin strengthened the high pressure in the gulf of Mexico causing it to fight against the oncoming high pressure in the Atlantic. As a result, an upper level cut off low that is forecast to move west and thus allow Dean to continue westerly may not even get out in time. Dean is moving faster west than the upper level low. This would likely cause Dean to be steered more towards the northwest. If the high pressure wins out sooner in the Atlantic, it will be better news for us in Florida.
August 17, 200718 yr Author The 11PM is out: http://hurricanewarning.blogspot.com/2007/...dvisory-15.html
August 17, 200718 yr The forecast today is much more uncertain than yesterday. I still do not think that Florida south of Tampa is at risk, but areas North of Tampa, in particular the panhandle, should be on a little heightened alert. I would not be surprised to see the forcasted path continue to move more east. That low over the Bahamas is just not moving fast enough, so far. Things are not going as planned and according to the National Hurricane Center there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast beyond Monday. No need for panic, just calm preperation.
August 17, 200718 yr Author GFDL is still stubborn with its track. That model wants to put a Category 5 monster into Texas somewhere between Houston and the Louisiana-Texas Border.
August 17, 200718 yr Author 2PM has Dean as a Cat 3 Major Hurricane @ 125MPH: http://hurricanewarning.blogspot.com/2007/...dvisory-18.html
August 17, 200718 yr I think Florida is in the clear. Anyone taking a vacation in Jamaica better get out now, though.
August 17, 200718 yr The GFDL is almost a pretty damn sick, twisted model. As long as it avoids the Corpus area, i'm ok with it. But, its gonna be nasty no matter where it hits. If it comes back through on the same path as Erin, that will get quite interesting.
August 18, 200718 yr Up to 145 mph down to 936 mbs and still strengthening. The GFDL and HWRF (New model) may not be so far off calling for a cat 5.
August 18, 200718 yr Author Currently, GDFL is saying Cat 5 Dean into Houston: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi...;hour=Animation
August 18, 200718 yr Wow if the GDFL model does come true Houston is going to look like Berlin after the war.
August 18, 200718 yr NHC is now predicting a 140 knot hurricane over the western carribean. Incredible. If it does what I believe it will do (split the Yucatan channel)...Gulf Coast better start praying to the father, the son, the holy ghost, allah, yahweh, and saying a thousand and one hail marys. Unlike Katrina, there is nothing in the way of this storm.
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.