April 9, 200917 yr I've always thought Dunn was overrated because he has stunk in driving in runners on base compared to other power hitters and I want my power hitters to drive in runners on base. Baseball-reference has a new stat (at least I hadn't seen it until today) showing the base runners on base a guy had and the number of those base runners that scored in his PA. Not surprisingly for a power hitter Dunn stinks. He has had 3,044 runners on base and only 410 (13%) have scored. The 13% pales compared to other power hitters. Griffey - 6868 1198 17% Manny - 6497 1237 19% Thomas - 6706 1223 18% Sheff - 6873 1177 17% ARod - 6062 1084 18% Thome - 6058 973 16% Delgado - 5784 1059 18% Chipper - 5736 996 17% Anderson - 5887 1074 18% Vladi - 4853 905 19% Pujols - 3584 685 19% Ortiz - 3800 708 19% Berkman - 3895 697 18% Howard - 1787 329 18% Wright - 2005 367 18% Miguel - 2535 495 20% Dunn - 3044 410 13%
April 9, 200917 yr He's not a really a clutch guy, he's more of a picky guy. If you notice, all he does is go up there and refuse to swing unless he thinks its something that might be a HR. Thats basically what makes his BB's and K's a misleading stat to a degree.
April 9, 200917 yr That really doesn't tell me much. It's not very even. Does he come up a lot with 1st base open? Maybe he comes up a lot with a guy at first base, while someone like Miggie comes up a lot with guys in scoring position. If you look at his actual averages with men on base and men at RISP, you'll see that he is insanely walked 23% of the time. He gets on-base 47% of the time. The man is just straight pitched around.
April 9, 200917 yr Author That really doesn't tell me much. It's not very even. Does he come up a lot with 1st base open? Maybe he comes up a lot with a guy at first base, while someone like Miggie comes up a lot with guys in scoring position. If you look at his actual averages with men on base and men at RISP, you'll see that he is insanely walked 23% of the time. He gets on-base 47% of the time. The man is just straight pitched around. Dunn is not better than those other hitters so I don't think he's pitched around more than they are. I'm pretty sure after 000s of PAs the bases where the runners where on pretty much even out. My problem with Dunn is he's too passive with runners on. The 13% of runners on that score on his PAs is below the league average (14%).
April 9, 200917 yr Adam Dunn is walked more than Albert Pujols with RISP... and men on in general... Pujols w/ Men on - 15.5% Dunn w/ Men on - 20.6% Pujols w/ RISP - 20.9% Dunn w/ RISP - 23% Does that not say anything to you? Yes, Adam Dunn is a very selective hitter, but at the same time, like Rabb said, very much pitched around. And while you may not like Adam Dunn's game... it's a very productive game in that he improves the situation for players around him at a high rate. So while he may not drive in the runs himself... he just becomes a run himself. It's not sexy, but it's productive. That being said, you're completely entitled to not liking it... I'm just saying it's still very productive.
April 9, 200917 yr Author I guess it depends on what you want the power hitter to do with runners on base. If I was looking for a walk then Dunn would the guy but I'm looking for him to drive the runners in and obviously among power hitters Dunn is the worst in doing so.
April 9, 200917 yr Does this count his PA where he got walks or is this just when there was some result other than a walk? If the latter, then Poloa's comments are absolutely legitimate.
April 9, 200917 yr I guess it depends on what you want the power hitter to do with runners on base. If I was looking for a walk then Dunn would the guy but I'm looking for him to drive the runners in and obviously among power hitters Dunn is the worst in doing so. So, then bat him 2nd?
April 9, 200917 yr Author I guess it depends on what you want the power hitter to do with runners on base. If I was looking for a walk then Dunn would the guy but I'm looking for him to drive the runners in and obviously among power hitters Dunn is the worst in doing so. So, then bat him 2nd? Make him expand his strike zone a bit with runners on the way other power hitters do so he can drive more runners in. That would be my preference.
April 9, 200917 yr Make him expand his strike zone a bit with runners on the way other power hitters do so he can drive more runners in. That would be my preference. Make him change the game that's made him incredibly productive? I think that your looking for him to be an epic RBI man... but, 1/4 ABs with runners on, he's walked. That leaves 3 ABs in which he can perform with RISP/MO... considering Dunn's career BA, he's not going to drive in that run an even 1/3 times. I mean, you think his BA is low now? Imagine what you're asking him to do... "Oh, bee tee dubs Adam, we want you to swing at pitches you're not comfortable hitting"
April 9, 200917 yr Author Make him expand his strike zone a bit with runners on the way other power hitters do so he can drive more runners in. That would be my preference. Make him change the game that's made him incredibly productive? The reason he's a productive hitter (a 130+ OPS does not make you incredibly productive) is because he hits 40+ homers a year so I would be willing to sacrifice some walks for some additional chances for him hit even more homers. If he was more aggressive his walks would go down but I think his Ks would also decrease. I bet he leads MLB in called 3rd strikes and does so by a long shot. The frequency of his called 3rd strikes is ridiculous.
April 9, 200917 yr The reason he's a productive hitter (a 130+ OPS does not make you incredibly productive) is because he hits 40+ homers a year so I would be willing to sacrifice some walks for some additional chances for him hit even more homers. If he was more aggressive his walks would go down but I think his Ks would also decrease. I bet he leads MLB in called 3rd strikes and does so by a long shot. The frequency of his called 3rd strikes is ridiculous. The thing is though, why does he take so many pitches. It's not just about home runs and I bet you it has to have more to do with a "pitch to drive". That being said, he's clearly not comfortable swinging at pitches out of his zone, because... regardless of situation, he never does. Making him go out of his zone has a much much much greater chance for a negative impact then a positive impact.
April 9, 200917 yr Author The reason he's a productive hitter (a 130+ OPS does not make you incredibly productive) is because he hits 40+ homers a year so I would be willing to sacrifice some walks for some additional chances for him hit even more homers. If he was more aggressive his walks would go down but I think his Ks would also decrease. I bet he leads MLB in called 3rd strikes and does so by a long shot. The frequency of his called 3rd strikes is ridiculous. The thing is though, why does he take so many pitches. It's not just about home runs and I bet you it has to have more to do with a "pitch to drive". That being said, he's clearly not comfortable swinging at pitches out of his zone, because... regardless of situation, he never does. Making him go out of his zone has a much much much greater chance for a negative impact then a positive impact. I don't see why he wouldn't be able to succesfully change his approach by expanding his strike zone in an effort to maximize his power potential but I guess we just have to disagree. BTW, he has a called 3rd strike 8.2% of his PAs... league average is 4.3%... Pujols is 2.3%.
April 10, 200917 yr How fair is it to compare Dunn to the GREATEST HITTER IN OUR LIFETIMES NOT NAMED BARRY LAMAR?
April 10, 200917 yr Author How fair is it to compare Dunn to the GREATEST HITTER IN OUR LIFETIMES NOT NAMED BARRY LAMAR? I compared him to about 15 sluggers. PWG then compared his walks to Pujols. I then compared his called 3rd strikes to the LEAGUE AVERAGE (very unfair!?!?!?!) and to Pujols. To Pujols because for whatever reason PWG singled out Pujols. Ask him why he singled out Pujols. Please explain why it's unfair to compare him to the league average?
April 10, 200917 yr How fair is it to compare Dunn to the GREATEST HITTER IN OUR LIFETIMES NOT NAMED BARRY LAMAR? I compared him to about 15 sluggers. PWG then compared his walks to Pujols. I then compared his called 3rd strikes to the LEAGUE AVERAGE (very unfair!?!?!?!) and to Pujols. To Pujols because for whatever reason PWG singled out Pujols. Ask him why he singled out Pujols. Please explain why it's unfair to compare him to the league average? I only compared Dunn's walk rates in those key situations to Pujols. May I remind you (Bob too) that Dunn walks more than Pujols despite making less contact... it just furthers my (and Rabb's) point that Dunn gets pitched around, ergo fewer runs driven in in certain situations.
April 10, 200917 yr Author How fair is it to compare Dunn to the GREATEST HITTER IN OUR LIFETIMES NOT NAMED BARRY LAMAR? I compared him to about 15 sluggers. PWG then compared his walks to Pujols. I then compared his called 3rd strikes to the LEAGUE AVERAGE (very unfair!?!?!?!) and to Pujols. To Pujols because for whatever reason PWG singled out Pujols. Ask him why he singled out Pujols. Please explain why it's unfair to compare him to the league average? I only compared Dunn's walk rates in those key situations to Pujols. May I remind you (Bob too) that Dunn walks more than Pujols despite making less contact... it just furthers my (and Rabb's) point that Dunn gets pitched around, ergo fewer runs driven in in certain situations. Why do you say he gets pitched around more so than Griffey, Manny, Thomas, Sheff, ARod, Thome, Delgado, Chipper, Anderson, Vladi, Pujols, Ortiz, Berkman, Howard, Wright and Miguel?
April 10, 200917 yr How fair is it to compare Dunn to the GREATEST HITTER IN OUR LIFETIMES NOT NAMED BARRY LAMAR? I compared him to about 15 sluggers. PWG then compared his walks to Pujols. I then compared his called 3rd strikes to the LEAGUE AVERAGE (very unfair!?!?!?!) and to Pujols. To Pujols because for whatever reason PWG singled out Pujols. Ask him why he singled out Pujols. Please explain why it's unfair to compare him to the league average? I only compared Dunn's walk rates in those key situations to Pujols. May I remind you (Bob too) that Dunn walks more than Pujols despite making less contact... it just furthers my (and Rabb's) point that Dunn gets pitched around, ergo fewer runs driven in in certain situations. Why do you say he gets pitched around more so than Griffey, Manny, Thomas, Sheff, ARod, Thome, Delgado, Chipper, Anderson, Vladi, Pujols, Ortiz, Berkman, Howard, Wright and Miguel? Weaker supporting cast?
April 10, 200917 yr He hasn't really had a weak supporting cast. I mean, we had Jacobs sub-800 OPS behind Cabrera for quite awhile lol. He just doesn't swing the bat often. It's who he is.
April 10, 200917 yr Adam Dunn isn't as good as Pujols? Thank's for the news flash Tom Brokaw! Adam Dunn is an excellent hitter, who is not a contact hitter. He sorts through pitches looking for something to kill, that ends up getting him a lot of walks and XBH, but it does not get him tons of hits or sacrifices.
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