That's all well and good, except that your offense is going to really struggle with Brett Carroll playing every day.

 

If you want to say "Go out and get a LHB to platoon with him" that's a different story.

 

Bill James has Carroll at a .742 OPS in 147 ABs, presumably playing mostly against LHP as a platoon player. He's shown a relative inability to hit RHP at the major league level. Yeah, his defense will be great, but I don't think it makes up for it, honestly.

 

Plus, I think Uggla's defense probably isn't as bad as the numbers showed last year. For his career he's -2.9 UZR/150, with one good year, one average year and two bad years. So he's probably closer to bad, but I don't think you can just pencil him in for -1 win defensively.

 

I also think Coghlan is going to be closer to below average than average. Not bad, but closer to Uggla than anything else.

 

Yes, best case scenario, with Coghlan replicating a somewhat ridiculous offensive rookie season and playing average 2B defense + Brett Carroll stepping in as a top 5 defensive outfielder in baseball and being a respectable batter, we could be better.

 

I'll take the relative sure thing in Uggla over that. And say Uggla's BABIP evens out to the .300 he's been for his career and he retains his improvements in plate discipline? All of a sudden, he's closer to his 2008 production than 2009 and we're way better off.

 

I think Uggla's best case scenario is much more likely than both Coghlan and Carroll's happening at the same time.

 

 

 

Can't you reverse your first statement by saying our team's defense is really going to struggle again with Uggla at second and Coghlan in left?

 

Your entire post is basically saying that we should take your word against the stats and experts. Probably the worst case scenario is that a Coghlan/Carroll pair replicates last year's production of Uggla/Coghlan, and we also save $8 million in the process.

Did you read my post?

 

Yeah, Bill James is an expert. He's not a f***ing god who's opinion is 100%.

 

To quote myself:

 

Yes, best case scenario, with Coghlan replicating a somewhat ridiculous offensive rookie season and playing average 2B defense + Brett Carroll stepping in as a top 5 defensive outfielder in baseball and being a respectable batter, we could be better.

 

I'll take the relative sure thing in Uggla over that. And say Uggla's BABIP evens out to the .300 he's been for his career and he retains his improvements in plate discipline? All of a sudden, he's closer to his 2008 production than 2009 and we're way better off.

 

I like stats as much as anyone, but you're being a little too dogmatic in your adherence to these stats. And the only good Dogma is the movie.

 

You're looking at two guys, Uggla and Coghlan, who had relatively opposite years as far as BABIP goes. Uggla's was unusually low, Coghlan's unusually high. Chances are, all other things being equal, Coghlan regresses some and Uggla improves some. So Uggla's probably going to be a better offensive player next season.

 

And yeah, bank on Carroll being a neutral bat and top 5 glove over the course of 500+ PAs. Good luck with that.

i think marlins could not find right deal for uggla during offseason so want ahead with extas cash pay him you see after mlb notice last week all player getting deals

such a mistake signing him to one year but that's just me...but hey I'm happy they got it done.

 

Notice they did it AFTER exchanging numbers which runs contrary to their "rule".

 

 

Not really. Their rule is to not exchange numbers after the final date for arbitration. That would be on Tuesday. If it hadn't gotten done by then they wouldn't have talked again, instead just letting the panel decide the figure.

See, I don't think the team is better keeping "Uggla." I think it's better spending $45 million rather than $38 million. I'm totally fine doing the CC/BC thing, if they used Uggla's $7.8 million for some sort of left handed 1B/LF bat and bring in some more pitching. That's about it.

 

Either way. Uggla, or beefing up the bench/pitching, is a win for us.

 

 

Here's something we can agree on. The $$$ was going to be spent regardless of who was on the roster. If/when Uggla is traded it just means we use that cash to go out and fill in other slots. We still have holes to be filled so this isn't the end of it, one way or the other. The only thing this signing did is let other teams know exactly what Uggla is making this year at an earlier time than if they had gone to the arbitration panel. It dosen't really mean he is staying with this team. It just clarrifies what they have to trade. It could actually speed up the trade process.

 

It was pretty well guessed by almost everyone that this was about the figure Uggla would sign for. There wasn't much (sp)Nostradomus-ism in this one. But teams may have been worried it could go higher if it went to the panel after the media slant on what has been happening with the "new agreement" between the Marlins, MLB, and the union.

 

The FA market is still very slow and there are tons of guys out there. Trades aren't happening at any type of clip. Opening Day is still a long ways off.

Probably the worst case scenario is that a Coghlan/Carroll pair replicates last year's production of Uggla/Coghlan

 

 

A worst case scenario is Coghlan is just as bad defensively as Uggla last year, with his BABIP come crashing down to normal (which would put him in the mid-700 OPS range), with Carroll completely falling on his face offensively (we are talking about someone with horrible plate discipline, after all. His approach of "swing, swing, and swing again" is basically that of Mike Jacobs) and only being a "very good" defensive fielder instead of "god tier." Uggla is a known product. I mean yes, there is chance that uggla himself falters in offense or defense but the chances of that happening are a lot less likely than what Coghlan and Carroll do (and again, what happened last year doesn't matter. it's what does better this coming year).

 

I mean again, yeah, are we better spending that money elsewhere? Most likely. Could Carroll and Coghlan out produce Coghlan and Uggla? Possibly. But you're saying that Carroll will most likely outproduce Uggla, even though 1) Uggla performed under an expected level based off BABIP and should be back towards the mid-800 OPS range next season, as well as performed under expected defensively and will hopefully be back more towards -5 rather than -10 (His range went down last year but one of the biggest reasons his UZR was so low was his DP and Error runs. First 3 years, he was -0.2 runs through errors, +2.2 through DP. Last year he was -3.7. He goes back to +2 and he's back at -5 runs). And 2) Carroll is a sophmore who only put up a .689 OPS while getting nearly 50% of his PAs against his dominant hand. I mean, yeah I would love to see Carroll gets starts, I've been asking for it all last season. But expecting him to outproduce uggla is just obscene.

What's interesting with Carroll is the more at bats he gets in a game, generally the better he does. Besides being small sample sizes if you go through his gamelogs you'll see in the months where he got a number of starts he performed reasonably, June and Sept 40 and 35 at bats respectively, but off the bench he just doesn't produce. It may never be his role to start as regular position player but off the bench offensively he's a liability. Too bad, perhaps as he matures (as a ballplayer) he'll be able to get his mind around coming off the bench.

Could Carroll and Coghlan out produce Coghlan and Carroll? Possibly.

 

Hmmm.....I don't think they can do that

I have no idea what you're talking about :whistle

Although he doesn't have the long term security of a multi-year contract, Uggla is certainly doing alright for himself, as a guy selected from the Rule V Draft.

 

 

Thats true, not too many other Rule V guys are taking home almost 8 MIL a year.

 

And its not like Uggla will have trouble getting another contract next year, with the fish or not.

Not many other rule V draftees hit 30+ homers every year and rarely miss a game.

Did you read my post?

 

Yeah, Bill James is an expert. He's not a f***ing god who's opinion is 100%.

 

To quote myself:

 

Yes, best case scenario, with Coghlan replicating a somewhat ridiculous offensive rookie season and playing average 2B defense + Brett Carroll stepping in as a top 5 defensive outfielder in baseball and being a respectable batter, we could be better.

 

I'll take the relative sure thing in Uggla over that. And say Uggla's BABIP evens out to the .300 he's been for his career and he retains his improvements in plate discipline? All of a sudden, he's closer to his 2008 production than 2009 and we're way better off.

 

I like stats as much as anyone, but you're being a little too dogmatic in your adherence to these stats. And the only good Dogma is the movie.

 

You're looking at two guys, Uggla and Coghlan, who had relatively opposite years as far as BABIP goes. Uggla's was unusually low, Coghlan's unusually high. Chances are, all other things being equal, Coghlan regresses some and Uggla improves some. So Uggla's probably going to be a better offensive player next season.

 

And yeah, bank on Carroll being a neutral bat and top 5 glove over the course of 500+ PAs. Good luck with that.

 

 

Sorry for taking the opinions from guys like Bill James over yours. What a silly thing for me to do.

 

Coghlan is faster than Uggla and he has a higher LD%, so of course he is going to have a higher BABIP. Will his .366 BABIP decrease a little bit in 2010? Probably, but if you think it will drop to Uggla's level at around .300, that isn't going to happen. You're also counting on a guy who is going from 29 to 30 to improve and a guy who is going from 23 to 24 to regress? Doubtful.

 

And I never said Carroll would have a neutral bat for a left fielder, but with how much of an improvement he would be on defense over Coghlan in 2009, he can hit the ball well enough to be improvement overall.

Bill James's system is notorious for overrating young players that don't have much MLB experience.

Interestingly enough, fangraphs actually tackles the exact issue of how we're probably better spending the 8 mil elsewhere

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/14726

And, if we trade Uggla, I wonder if we could give Pineiro a pudge contract - a one year deal with a high base and deferred, and say "look, teams aren't going to give you too much right now because you've only had one good year. Come here and prove what you did last year wasn't a fluke, and get a huge contract next offseason"

 

I personally think he's legit - his GB rate went through the roof, thanks to Dave Duncan. I don't think he'll be as good this coming year, but if he puts up a 4 ERA while making 32 starts, averaging nearly 7 IP per start...sign me up.

Interestingly enough, fangraphs actually tackles the exact issue of how we're probably better spending the 8 mil elsewhere

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/14726

 

 

That certainly was an un-informed read. :brigginbounce

Interestingly enough, fangraphs actually tackles the exact issue of how we're probably better spending the 8 mil elsewhere

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/14726

 

It's not a bad article, but I wouldn't necessarily say a good one also. Dude doesn't even know De Aza is off the team, and thinks broken Joe Crede is a replacement for Cantu. I also mock this comment

 

So it seems like the Marlins are getting a pretty solid discount on Uggla, even if it is slightly above the 60% discount for 2nd year arb-eligible players that we usually see.

 

Not really chump! It's just in line with what he should get.

 

But anyways, yea I'd rather have a $7 million starting pitcher and a $1 million left handed 1B/LF than Dan Uggla in 2010. I don't think Pineiro will settle for a 1 year deal, but you can probably snipe Sheets, Bedard, and maybe Smoltz. That would be a bold move for the Marlins, and would effectively send someone to the bullpen permanently, but the team would look great.

 

I think the Marlins know this. They've been trying to trade him, but they just haven't found the right deal for a pitcher yet.

Not really chump! It's just in line with what he should get.

 

 

I really hate how so many people quote the "40/60/80" % thing regarding arbitration, as if that's how it works, rather than what it's actually meant for: a quick baseline.

Not really chump! It's just in line with what he should get.

 

 

I really hate how so many people quote the "40/60/80" % thing regarding arbitration, as if that's how it works, rather than what it's actually meant for: a quick baseline.

My favorite part is the stat geeks use that (and as a side note, I like how a whole new level of stat geeks have emerged that take it to far where we're just "modest" into numbers now. Hooray for the insanity of the internutz) quick percentage baseline, and don't even read what goes into an arbitration analysis:

 

“the quality of the Player’s contribution to his Club during the past season (including but not limited to his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal), the length and consistency of his career contribution, the record of the Player’s past compensation, comparative baseball salaries.�

 

I mean, we can do the past compensation, the comparatives salaries, prior statistical performance, and contribution to the club, which I probably base most of my estimates off as it should be, but the whole system has a cop out with leadership/appeal/intangibles. How does THAT get into a 40/60/80 jump? Makes no sense at all. We didn't have any real superstars to deal with that this year, but if we get another personality like Dontrelle that's killing people, saving kids from burning cars, starting charities, and becomes a MLB sensation with national commercials, you bet your ass that is bumping the arbitration number. That's not fitting into a 40/60/80 slot.

 

And a side note, biz of baseball reported the Marlins/Johnson exchanged arb numbers. It was $5 million to $3 million. Marlins were going to get slammed if they didn't give him that deal. It also (as you said before when I arbitrarily lowered Cantu to $5.5 million since the media was reporting $5 million and I had it down as $6 million and just got nervous) lends credence that no one knows jack sh*t about arbitration and I should just listen to myself as I had Johnson getting into the 5's if they were to actually go the 1 year route. Go me. lol.

Interestingly enough, fangraphs actually tackles the exact issue of how we're probably better spending the 8 mil elsewhere

 

http://www.fangraphs...index.php/14726

 

 

 

That was a pretty weak article. CHONE projects the lowest wOBA for Carroll out of all three projections, and they only have him at +7 fielding. They also don't seem to know how to do basic math:

 

Right now, the Marlins have Chris Coghlan in LF, but he is a natural second baseman, who put up slightly above average TotalZone numbers in the minors at 2B (+3 overall from 2007-2009). Coghlan is projected to be a roughly average corner outfielder, and he would also likely be roughly average at 2B as well. Given that the position adjustment for 2B is about a win higher than that for LF, that adds about a win to Coghlan’s value, taking him from about 2.3 WAR/150G to 3.3 WAR/150G.

 

 

If they think that he will be an average second baseman, and if they are using Coghlan's WAR from last year (2.3), then they need to adjust it so he becomes an average second baseman. Doing so would increase his war by about 1.1, which would mean a Coghlan/Carroll combo would be a .5 WAR increase over Uggla/Coghlan.

Again, the problem is there's a higher level of volatility in the Coghlan/Carroll combo. I take the sure thing, personally.

You do understand playing full time is drastically going to effect his numbers. Not only with hitting, but with fielding as sure he is a great defender, but it's a bit of a stretch to say he's going to be Franklin Guitterez. And, it's also a stretch to assume Coghlan is a perfect conversion right away and meets his defensive potential. And Coghlan's batting line is probably dropping 50-75 OPS points, while Uggla probably goes up at least 25.

 

I can get behind, trading Uggla for pitching, using the $7.8 million saved to get a strong left handed bat to platoon with Carroll, and to sign another pitcher for the staff. That is probably a better team and would make up whatever is lost with Uggla. But to really think as is, Carroll basically replaces Uggla with shifting guys around the diamond? Please. The numbers you present could support it, but it's basing it on multiple projections from offense and defense where it's not probable everything will work out. You're walking a fine like that Carroll performs amazing in the outfield, and hits just enough to make a huge wash everywhere. Carroll isn't ready for that much playing time, if he'll ever be, even if he's a useful player.

 

Like Bob said, you take the sure thing with Uggla if these are our only two options.

Interestingly enough, fangraphs actually tackles the exact issue of how we're probably better spending the 8 mil elsewhere

 

http://www.fangraphs...index.php/14726

 

 

 

That was a pretty weak article. CHONE projects the lowest wOBA for Carroll out of all three projections, and they only have him at +7 fielding. They also don't seem to know how to do basic math:

 

Right now, the Marlins have Chris Coghlan in LF, but he is a natural second baseman, who put up slightly above average TotalZone numbers in the minors at 2B (+3 overall from 2007-2009). Coghlan is projected to be a roughly average corner outfielder, and he would also likely be roughly average at 2B as well. Given that the position adjustment for 2B is about a win higher than that for LF, that adds about a win to Coghlan’s value, taking him from about 2.3 WAR/150G to 3.3 WAR/150G.

 

 

If they think that he will be an average second baseman, and if they are using Coghlan's WAR from last year (2.3), then they need to adjust it so he becomes an average second baseman. Doing so would increase his war by about 1.1, which would mean a Coghlan/Carroll combo would be a .5 WAR increase over Uggla/Coghlan.

 

While the article certainly isn't the best, the only one not around CHONE's is Bill James (Who, again, is notoriously optimistic with young players that don't have much ML time) with Marcel at .707 and Zips at .704, and they have him at +13 fielder over 150 games.

 

And in regards to the second part, he's going off Chone, not Coghlan's WAR from last year. That's another fault of the article though, as he has Coghlan's from last year (2.3) instead of chones (2.4).

You do understand playing full time is drastically going to effect his numbers. Not only with hitting, but with fielding as sure he is a great defender, but it's a bit of a stretch to say he's going to be Franklin Guitterez. And, it's also a stretch to assume Coghlan is a perfect conversion right away and meets his defensive potential. And Coghlan's batting line is probably dropping 50-75 OPS points, while Uggla probably goes up at least 25.

 

I can get behind, trading Uggla for pitching, using the $7.8 million saved to get a strong left handed bat to platoon with Carroll, and to sign another pitcher for the staff. That is probably a better team and would make up whatever is lost with Uggla. But to really think as is, Carroll basically replaces Uggla with shifting guys around the diamond? Please. The numbers you present could support it, but it's basing it on multiple projections from offense and defense where it's not probable everything will work out. You're walking a fine like that Carroll performs amazing in the outfield, and hits just enough to make a huge wash everywhere. Carroll isn't ready for that much playing time, if he'll ever be, even if he's a useful player.

 

Like Bob said, you take the sure thing with Uggla if these are our only two options.

 

 

 

His limited playing time is all we have to judge him by now. Granted, he might not be the "elite" defensive player immediately, but a +7 would have put him at just the 5th best defensive left fielder last season, behind the likes of Raul Ibanez. If you want to explain to me how unlikely it is that he will continue at the same pace for an entire season, then that's fine, but as of now he has a +36.5 UZR/150 in 513 innings in the outfield for his career. To say that his numbers are going to deplete by that much simply because he will be starting in the majority of his games is stretching it in my opinion.

 

I also never said that it was a sure thing that Coghlan was going to be an average defender. For the sake of argument, I assumed that he had the ability to be, and then I corrected a mistake FanGraphs made when they also assumed that he would be an average defensive second baseman. As of now, all I have provided is evidence using last season's stats and the projections of Bill James/CHONE/etc. that a Coghlan/Carroll combo has the ability to be better than an Uggla/Coghlan combo, with your only retort being that the likelihood of it is not definite.

Wow. It really seems like some of you guys don't understand that Dan Uggla is a asset to the team. There is no way in hell that Coghlan and Carroll will produce anywhere near as much offensively than Uggla and Coghlan. Big deal you would save money by getting rid of Uggla but the Marlins would not be a better team......period.

His limited playing time is all we have to judge him by now. Granted, he might not be the "elite" defensive player immediately, but a +7 would have put him at just the 5th best defensive left fielder last season, behind the likes of Raul Ibanez. If you want to explain to me how unlikely it is that he will continue at the same pace for an entire season, then that's fine, but as of now he has a +36.5 UZR/150 in 513 innings in the outfield for his career. To say that his numbers are going to deplete by that much simply because he will be starting in the majority of his games is stretching it in my opinion.

 

 

Again, he's +13 in 150 games. That's only behind the likes of David DeJesus, Carl Crawford, and Juan Rivera.

 

He's not even at a point where you can regress to 50%.

 

And it's not all we have to go by (his minor league defensive numbers). He's at +18.5 TZ/150 since 2005 in a corner OF spot