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Oswalt asks for trade


gatorengy
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Wasn't Oswalt saying before the season that he didn't want to be part of another Astros rebuilding process? Basically saying that if they wanted to rebuild, they should trade him for some of the parts needed so he could have a chance to win somewhere else. He's 32 years old and he wants to win, but he knows he won't be around forever. Not everybody wants to be like Jamie Moyer and be pitching in their late 40s, some don't even want to go into their late 30s.

 

I can certainly understand why Oswalt and his agent might be giving the Astros a nudge here, basically saying "You guys need to rebuild and you need to trade me to do that", but the Astros have always been a stubborn team. Every season the experts expect them to be sellers and they're buyers and then... they have a good strong end to the season, but fall a bit short. They're 15-27 on the season so far and in last place in the NL Central, but it's still kinda early. I'm not sure, I really don't think they can do anything with this season and Oswalt has been there a long time. I think he should move on, I think it would be best for his career and best for the Astros to start rebuilding.

 

It's a difficult situation for some teams. Everyone wants to win now, but its just not realistic. It has to get to a point where teams say "Okay, we need take a few years to rebuild" because their current guys aren't getting it done.

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Did I see the other day that Oswalt has a mid 2's ERA but is something like 2-6?

 

Houston needs to trade Oswalt, Lee and Berkman with the huge salaries and start completely from scratch. Harsh but true.

 

 

There's nothing harsh about it, they've been patching up that ship with bubblegum for years. The players you named, specifically, deserve to win and the fans of that organization deserve a winning team. As it stands both things are mutually exclusive, those players are more valuable to the Astros NOT on their team than actually on it.

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Oswalt is one of my favorite players, and it's good to see that he's gonna have a chance to win somewhere else. He's been one of the more underrated stars in the game anyway. But for craps and giggles , what type of prospects do you guys think would take to get him here?

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I've heard the Nationals and Mets have taken an interest in Roy. Livan Hernandez, of all people, has been Washington's most reliable pitcher this season. Jason Marquis and Scott Olsen are on the DL, Chien-Ming Wang is coming off shoulder surgery, and Jordan Zimmermann just had Tommy John surgery. I think they are more likely to look into acquiring Roy Oswalt than the Mets. He is owed about $31 million through the 2011 season, and I've heard the Mets might not have the money to make a play for Oswalt. I was thinking the Nationals could trade prospects RHP Drew Storen and OF Destin Hood...?

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Roy's got a full no-trade clause, he's not going to the 4th and 5th places teams in the NL East. He wants to go to a sure contender. While the Nats might have a chance of getting to the playoffs if everything falls juuuuust right, they aren't nearly close enough for him to go there. And the Mets...yeah, they're the worst team in the division. For that he might as well stay in Houston.

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Roy's got a full no-trade clause, he's not going to the 4th and 5th places teams in the NL East. He wants to go to a sure contender. While the Nats might have a chance of getting to the playoffs if everything falls juuuuust right, they aren't nearly close enough for him to go there. And the Mets...yeah, they're the worst team in the division. For that he might as well stay in Houston.

 

 

 

The Nats and Mets become legit WildCard contenders in the NL with a Roy Oswalt acquisition.

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Are the Nats really WC contenders?

 

Look at their run differential (-20). They have been winning a lot of 1 run and 2 run games. They have been lucky (it's early) and the team isn't good enough to sustain this. I expect them to be a sub-.500 team.

 

Even if Strasburg is legit, I'm not sure he will be enough to make them contenders.

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Are the Nats really WC contenders?

 

Look at their run differential (-20). They have been winning a lot of 1 run and 2 run games. They have been lucky (it's early) and the team isn't good enough to sustain this. I expect them to be a sub-.500 team.

 

Even if Strasburg is legit, I'm not sure he will be enough to make them contenders.

 

 

 

I think their lineup is pretty good.

 

Storen just got called up, which means Clippard won't have to pitch as much as he was pitching, which I'm sure was a concern.

 

I think it's a tricky team. Run differential or not, their record is what it is right now, and they can definitely improve. Strasburg has legit stuff. I know he hasn't thrown a pitch in the big leagues yet, but there is plenty to be optimistic about. You factor in his potential, a Roy Oswalt acquisition...and also some of their other guys returning from the DL later in the year (Chien-Ming Wang comes to mind...if he's half of what he was with the Yankees back in his day a couple years ago, he definitely adds + value to their rotation, which is the weakness of the team), I think they'd have a shot at contending for a WildCard. The NL doesn't have many elite teams, so I seriously think they'd have a shot all things considered, if they made the move.

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They are currently projected to finish 81-81 by BP

 

Going into the year, PECOTA and CHONE had them finishing with 76 wins, so 81-81 really isn't much of a difference.

 

If both Strausberg, Oswalt, and Storen pitch like aces, that right there is probably about, oh, +3-4 wins for Oswalt and Strausberg, and +1-2 wins for Storen over who the three of them would be replacing, based off WAR. So that's +7-10 wins. So that's an upper 80/low 90 win team.

 

EDIT: well, those totals would be over a full season. We're about a third of th season done, so we're actually looking at 4-7 wins, so it would make the a mid-to-upper 80 win team. On top of which, Oswalt probably won't be traded until July 31

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Is the 81-81 prediction based simply on the fact that the Nats are 22-22 right now? The Pythagorean puts them closer to a 20-24 team right now, meaning they would finish around 75 wins (near the pre-season projection).

 

Their lineup is decent, but their rotation is pretty terrible. It is doubtful that Livan will be able to maintain anything close to a sub-2.00 ERA and Olsen could easily be facing nagging shoulder problems all year long.

 

That will put the pressure purely on Strasburg and Storen to make this team competitive enough to appeal to Oswalt for a trade.

 

I would guess with Strasburg and Storen, the Nats will be around a .500 team (before Oswalt). I see the NL WC coming out of the West.

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For the record I never said they'd win it, I just said they'd be contenders. High 80's is a contender for the NL WildCard, in my opinion. How many wins, realistically, do you see a team needing to win the NL WildCard this year? I'm guessing 90-92, at most. Realistically, I'm actually thinking high 80's.

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No, I understand you aren't saying they'll win it.

 

My point is that they are probably a low 80s win team at best. High 70s is more like it, meaning that I don't see them being legitimate contenders. I think Oswalt could increase their chances, though.

 

Right now they have a rotation full of 4th and 5th starters. I don't think Strasburg will be enough to allow the pieces to fall together. Oswalt would need to agree to be traded there and the Astros would have to like what they get in return.

 

I suppose I'm just getting sick of seeing how overhyped the Nationals are. They have improved a lot from last season but they aren't nearly as good as their record indicates.

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I agree with you, and was actually surprised to see BP have them at finishing .500 (And it's not based just off them being .500 now).

 

You think about it though, for 2011. Obviously there's going to be roster turn over, first thing I can think of is Adam Dunn being an FA. But imagine if they trade for Oswalt than do something like sign Lee. A top 3 of Strausberg, Lee, and Oswalt and they go from having a rotation of five 4-5's to have 3 aces and 2 5's. That's bumping them to a ~100m payroll (They're at 66m this year, and Oswalt and Lee are ~15m each), and considering they were after Tex, I imagine they can handle it.

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Another thing to consider is that if Oswalt is so determined to go to a contender, I can't imagine him wanting to go to an NL East team not named the Phillies. If he goes to any of the other four teams, he's more than likely looking at a Wild Card spot at best.

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Another thing to consider is that if Oswalt is so determined to go to a contender, I can't imagine him wanting to go to an NL East team not named the Phillies. If he goes to any of the other four teams, he's more than likely looking at a Wild Card spot at best.

 

Yeah, this is what I'm saying.

 

Also, as far as the Nats, go, I never said they wouldn't be contenders with Oswalt (though I don't think the Mets would be good enough to seriously contend even with him). I said that for them to be serious, top contenders, everything would have to go just right. Their bullpen would have to keep up, Strasburg would have to be as good as they hope just about instantly, same for Storen. Olsen would have to keep it up as well and Livan would have to stay at least decent (he's been amazing but really, he's got to regress to the mean eventually). Everything would have to go just right. I don't think that's what Oswalt is looking for.

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