Also, while I like Hensley, I wouldn't expect him to be as elite as he was last year, again. He doesn't have overpowering stuff; once his K's go down in 2011, he'll be more like a nice middle reliever capable of starting if something goes wrong with the starting rotation in terms of injuries, etc.

 

You're mistaking velocity with stuff. His Lince-changeup is ten tons of sick, to the point that he actually has more movement on it than Lince does. He also has good movement on his fastball.

 

 

I'm not saying he's a bad pitcher; I'm just saying that he had never proven that he could K guys at such a rate before last year, and his first month of the season really boosted his K/9 #'s some making me believe some of it was fluky.

 

Also, all I'm saying is that I don't expect him to be elite, again. He put up a 2.19 ERA last year which was great, and I'd say really unexpected. He did end up with a 3.46 xFIP, however, as opposed to a guy like Leo who's FIP/xFIP were both under 3.

 

Basically, what I'm trying to say is that I'd expect Hensley to be more of a low to mid 3 ERA guy; that's not bad, but if you can keep Leo, there's more upside with Leo. There's also more upside with a guy like Dunn, as well. If Dunn lowers his walk rates against right-handed hitters, he'll end up being the setup guy, sooner rather than later.

 

Plus, Hensley's been a starter before so having a guy like him in middle relief capable of multiple innings in occasional appearances is more valuable than just having him as the 8th setup guy, imo.

I'm not saying you are saying that, what I'm saying is that you're saying he's never really K'd guys before last year but he never had his changeup before last year either. His changeup has made him a completely different as a pitcher. Another thing that has made him different is becoming a reliever. It allows him to go all-out instead of spreading his energy over 5+ innings.

I feel that Hensley is more valuable finishing off a game by getting the save and a win in one inning or possibly more if he needs to get a 4 or 5 out save then using him as a Middle reliever.

Stats aside, just by watching him pitch last season, I didn't see anything to indicate Hensley couldn't be an effective closer again this year. At the same time, and again just by observation, I didn't see anything to make me think Nunez would be a lot better at closing. Sure, Nunez has that wicked changeup but I just didn't see the control developing. He never seemed very good at hitting the target with the changeup and only so-so with the fastball.

Stats aside, just by watching him pitch last season, I didn't see anything to indicate Hensley couldn't be an effective closer again this year. At the same time, and again just by observation, I didn't see anything to make me think Nunez would be a lot better at closing. Sure, Nunez has that wicked changeup but I just didn't see the control developing. He never seemed very good at hitting the target with the changeup and only so-so with the fastball.

 

 

Nunez: 2.9 Walks Per 9 Innings. 65% Strikes. 60% First-Pitch Strikes.

Hensley: 3.5 Walks Per 9 Innings. 61% Strikes. 52% First-Pitch Strikes.

 

"But I said 'Stats aside'" is not a viable response. Leo threw more strikes, got ahead of more batters, and walked fewer batters last year. Those are rather conclusive about their performances last season.

Nunez is a cutter away from being a shutdown closer.

 

And he is almost as effective against lefties as Choate.

And he is almost as effective against lefties as Choate.

 

 

May I ask why you're comparing the two? One is projected to be a closer, and the other is a lefty specialist. They have different roles.

Even if Nunez leaves, Choate wouldn't be his replacement. Nunez replacement would be whoever ends up closing games (take your pick).

 

Mike Dunn and Randy Choate would basically be replacing Taylor Tankersley and Renyel Pinto. Amazing improvement in that area.

 

Anyway you look at it, our bullpen should be better next year because there is more depth.

Nunez made me nervous when he was out there. Hensley didn't. Throw all the stats you want out there but Leo out there in the 9th takes days off my life

Nunez made me nervous when he was out there. Hensley didn't. Throw all the stats you want out there but Leo out there in the 9th takes days off my life

 

Exactly.

^Hensley was much better than Nunez in high leverage situations, so you guys can use that to support your opinions. :thumbup

 

And back to the original point of the thread, Choate confirmed that he has been in talks with the Marlins...and three other teams.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/marlins-pursuing-randy-choate.html

Stats aside, just by watching him pitch last season, I didn't see anything to indicate Hensley couldn't be an effective closer again this year. At the same time, and again just by observation, I didn't see anything to make me think Nunez would be a lot better at closing. Sure, Nunez has that wicked changeup but I just didn't see the control developing. He never seemed very good at hitting the target with the changeup and only so-so with the fastball.

 

 

Nunez: 2.9 Walks Per 9 Innings. 65% Strikes. 60% First-Pitch Strikes.

Hensley: 3.5 Walks Per 9 Innings. 61% Strikes. 52% First-Pitch Strikes.

 

"But I said 'Stats aside'" is not a viable response. Leo threw more strikes, got ahead of more batters, and walked fewer batters last year. Those are rather conclusive about their performances last season.

The stats might seem conclusive if that's all you've got to go by. I start with what I see on the field, which is what I love about the game. Sometimes the numbers add something helpful, sometimes they don't. (For me, with Nunez mostly they don't.) Obviously it's not that way for everyone.

Stats aside, just by watching him pitch last season, I didn't see anything to indicate Hensley couldn't be an effective closer again this year. At the same time, and again just by observation, I didn't see anything to make me think Nunez would be a lot better at closing. Sure, Nunez has that wicked changeup but I just didn't see the control developing. He never seemed very good at hitting the target with the changeup and only so-so with the fastball.

 

 

Nunez: 2.9 Walks Per 9 Innings. 65% Strikes. 60% First-Pitch Strikes.

Hensley: 3.5 Walks Per 9 Innings. 61% Strikes. 52% First-Pitch Strikes.

 

"But I said 'Stats aside'" is not a viable response. Leo threw more strikes, got ahead of more batters, and walked fewer batters last year. Those are rather conclusive about their performances last season.

The stats might seem conclusive if that's all you've got to go by. I start with what I see on the field, which is what I love about the game. Sometimes the numbers add something helpful, sometimes they don't. (For me, with Nunez mostly they don't.) Obviously it's not that way for everyone.

 

So your estimates should be trusted over actual facts?

I'm not saying Nunez wasn't shakier in the 9th, and Erick is right about the high-leverage situations. But you can't say that Leo had a control problem, and so you prefer Hensley, because that's wrong. You wanna prefer Clay for other reasons? Cool. But having better control than Leo isn't one of them, regardless of your striking observational powers.

^Hensley was much better than Nunez in high leverage situations, so you guys can use that to support your opinions. :thumbup

 

And back to the original point of the thread, Choate confirmed that he has been in talks with the Marlins...and three other teams.

http://www.mlbtrader...ndy-choate.html

 

 

 

 

"three other teams.....he refused to name" smacks of bargaining ploy, IMO. I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't come here based on that report, but of course I could be wrong.

Stats aside, just by watching him pitch last season, I didn't see anything to indicate Hensley couldn't be an effective closer again this year. At the same time, and again just by observation, I didn't see anything to make me think Nunez would be a lot better at closing. Sure, Nunez has that wicked changeup but I just didn't see the control developing. He never seemed very good at hitting the target with the changeup and only so-so with the fastball.

 

 

Nunez: 2.9 Walks Per 9 Innings. 65% Strikes. 60% First-Pitch Strikes.

Hensley: 3.5 Walks Per 9 Innings. 61% Strikes. 52% First-Pitch Strikes.

 

"But I said 'Stats aside'" is not a viable response. Leo threw more strikes, got ahead of more batters, and walked fewer batters last year. Those are rather conclusive about their performances last season.

The stats might seem conclusive if that's all you've got to go by. I start with what I see on the field, which is what I love about the game. Sometimes the numbers add something helpful, sometimes they don't. (For me, with Nunez mostly they don't.) Obviously it's not that way for everyone.

 

So your estimates should be trusted over actual facts?

I'm not saying Nunez wasn't shakier in the 9th, and Erick is right about the high-leverage situations. But you can't say that Leo had a control problem, and so you prefer Hensley, because that's wrong. You wanna prefer Clay for other reasons? Cool. But having better control than Leo isn't one of them, regardless of your striking observational powers.

The facts I see with my own eyes are that Nunez has a lot more trouble hitting the target, putting pitches where they're supposed to go (and I don't just mean the strike zone), and fooling batters. That's been plain as day. I don't want to rehash the stats / no stats debate, but there are many things I can learn, not to mention enjoy, by watching the game that stats can't give me. If it doesn't work that way for you, then we just have different ways of appreciating the game. Sometimes the stats are more revealing, sometimes the eyes are.