Another situation could be if the Marlins want to keep signing bullpen arms, maybe one more lefty to join the mix and give the team depth.

 

After this, the Marlins will have 8 relievers and only 7 spots (Nunez, Hensley, Mujica, Webb, Sanches, Badenhop, Dunn, Choate). There will be no more bullpen signings. If anything, Leo gets traded and they use the other 7 to start the year.

 

I had completely forgot we had traded for Dunn

 

Yeah if we sign Choate this solidifies our bullpen possibly leading to Leo being traded.

 

As for the rotation it hasn't been set in stone yet.

The top 4 is basically a lock with J.J., Vasquez, Nolasco, Anibal but the 5th starter spot is a fight between Volstad and Sanabia and possibly guys like Villanueva and Kohler thrown into the mix.

But my best guess is that the more experienced Volstad will end up getting the job.

I'd put the odds on this

 

Volstad 98%

Sanabia 2%'

Koehler 0%

Elih -1,000%

 

Don't forget Adalberto Mendez. That's another 0.05% right there

If they can sign Choate, I wonder if they'll still keep Leo and let Badenhop start the year in the minors, considering The Hopper still has an option left.

This has a lot to do with Loria this offseason; based on his comments, it seems like he's willing to go all out with the bullpen next year. It's like they really want seven quality arms in the pen, and anything less is unacceptable or something.

 

A Kevin Towers mentality.

If they can sign Choate, I wonder if they'll still keep Leo and let Badenhop start the year in the minors, considering The Hopper still has an option left.

This has a lot to do with Loria this offseason; based on his comments, it seems like he's willing to go all out with the bullpen next year. It's like they really want seven quality arms in the pen, and anything less is unacceptable or something.

 

A Kevin Towers mentality.

 

 

That's a possibility, but at this point I think it might be best to deal Nunez and try to get a good lefty bat in return.

 

That is if we sign Choate of course.

If they can sign Choate, I wonder if they'll still keep Leo and let Badenhop start the year in the minors, considering The Hopper still has an option left.

This has a lot to do with Loria this offseason; based on his comments, it seems like he's willing to go all out with the bullpen next year. It's like they really want seven quality arms in the pen, and anything less is unacceptable or something.

 

A Kevin Towers mentality.

 

 

That's a possibility, but at this point I think it might be best to deal Nunez and try to get a good lefty bat in return.

 

That is if we sign Choate of course.

 

 

Well, it all depends what they're willing to do with the payroll, and how much they value bullpen arms at the moment.

 

Leo is a better pitcher than Badenhop, and has backend of games experience.

 

Personally, I'd like to spend Leo's money on a more proven CF'er, but that's probably not even possible, at this point. Leo has very good stuff, and his peripherals last year did show that he has the ability to be a very good reliever.

 

Hensley's a nice arm, but I don't think they want him closing.

If we sign Choate the only word to describe how good this bullpen would be: RIDICULOUS!

 

 

Erick has a good point about Leo, I really don't think they'd trade him because of his experience as a back end guy along with the nasty stuff he has. I'd really expect him to be the set up man to Hensley going into the season with Mujica and Webb manning the 6th/7th Innings along with occasionally apperances from Dunn and Choate (If... Hopefully signed) as a LOOGY.

If Leo stays, he's going to close, IMO. That wouldn't be such a bad thing, either. He could be an interesting player to trade near the deadline if he has a good amount of saves. After that, we could slide Hensley to the closer role and call up Badenhop/Marinez/Ceda.

If Leo stays, he's going to close, IMO. That wouldn't be such a bad thing, either. He could be an interesting player to trade near the deadline if he has a good amount of saves. After that, we could slide Hensley to the closer role and call up Badenhop/Marinez/Ceda.

 

Exactly. Let one guy rack up saves to inflate his value to clubs who still value them (which some do).

 

They really need to trade him this offseason or the deadline. No one will want a 6th year arbitration Leo with saves (see how ChiSox non tendered Jenks), but with the way relievers are getting signed now, he makes a lot of sense if the Marlins aren't asking for to much.

If we sign Choate the only word to describe how good this bullpen would be: RIDICULOUS!

 

 

Erick has a good point about Leo, I really don't think they'd trade him because of his experience as a back end guy along with the nasty stuff he has. I'd really expect him to be the set up man to Hensley going into the season with Mujica and Webb manning the 6th/7th Innings along with occasionally apperances from Dunn and Choate (If... Hopefully signed) as a LOOGY.

 

 

 

If Leo stays, odds are that he's going to close.

If we sign Choate the only word to describe how good this bullpen would be: RIDICULOUS!

 

 

Erick has a good point about Leo, I really don't think they'd trade him because of his experience as a back end guy along with the nasty stuff he has. I'd really expect him to be the set up man to Hensley going into the season with Mujica and Webb manning the 6th/7th Innings along with occasionally apperances from Dunn and Choate (If... Hopefully signed) as a LOOGY.

 

 

 

If Leo stays, odds are that he's going to close.

 

Is that speculation or a proven statement?

 

I'd figure they'd go into a position battle in ST but the way Clay finished last year I'd love him as the closer.

If we sign Choate the only word to describe how good this bullpen would be: RIDICULOUS!

 

 

Erick has a good point about Leo, I really don't think they'd trade him because of his experience as a back end guy along with the nasty stuff he has. I'd really expect him to be the set up man to Hensley going into the season with Mujica and Webb manning the 6th/7th Innings along with occasionally apperances from Dunn and Choate (If... Hopefully signed) as a LOOGY.

 

 

 

If Leo stays, odds are that he's going to close.

 

Is that speculation or a proven statement?

 

I'd figure they'd go into a position battle in ST but the way Clay finished last year I'd love him as the closer.

 

 

Beinfest already said that Leo is the favorite to close, heading into Spring Training (assuming he stays).

 

It makes no sense, financially, for the Marlins to pay a reliever $4 million to not close. He'd be the highest paid reliever in franchise history...to not close. That would make no sense.

 

Also, while I like Hensley, I wouldn't expect him to be as elite as he was last year, again. He doesn't have overpowering stuff; once his K's go down in 2011, he'll be more like a nice middle reliever capable of starting if something goes wrong with the starting rotation in terms of injuries, etc.

 

The key to our bullpen is how well Mike Dunn develops, imo. He has the stuff to be an elite backend of the pen arm, if he can lower the walks.

 

A great backend of the bullpen is elite if it has guys with very good K/9's, and Leo and Dunn have the stuff to do that. Webb is another guy who can be an elite arm; while his K/9 won't be that impressive, he still has a power sinking fastball so he's the type of guy who can make up for that with amazing GB rates.

 

Guys like Mujica and Hensley would be arms you want in middle relief in a perfect world.

I don't see why you're so sure Hensley's K rates will drop.

Replacing Nunez with Choate makes the bullpen worse, not better.

Replacing Nunez with Choate makes the bullpen worse, not better.

 

 

Most of us were going off of the assumption that Nunez was a goner, anyway. So to me, he'd more be replacing Badenhop, i.e.

Replacing Nunez with Choate makes the bullpen worse, not better.

 

 

Most of us were going off of the assumption that Nunez was a goner, anyway. So to me, he'd more be replacing Badenhop, i.e.

 

This. and plus if Leo can real us in a decent prospect or two or at least a nice lefty bat then I wouldn't mind trading him but that's unlikely to happen until the season begins or the deadline if anything.

I don't see why you're so sure Hensley's K rates will drop.

 

 

 

He doesn't have K per inning type stuff.

Last year, he had a couple of games that really boosted his #'s.

 

April 28th & April 30th, he pitched 5 innings and got 13 K's.

 

Take away the two outings which were an anamoly, and he ends up with 64 K's in 70 innings.

 

He just doesn't have the stuff to overpower hitters and K a guy per inning, as he did last year. His career track record (both in the majors and minors) also show that he's not really much of a strikeout pitcher.

 

He's always been more of a guy who pitches to contact, and gets groundballs at a solid rate.

 

Obviously, it's not surprising that his K/9 went up some as he went from starter to reliever, but they went up too much; his K/9 #'s, all things considered, seemed rather fluky.

 

I think everyone was extremely surprised last season when he opened the season with 21 K's in 12.2 innings, in April.

Also, while I like Hensley, I wouldn't expect him to be as elite as he was last year, again. He doesn't have overpowering stuff; once his K's go down in 2011, he'll be more like a nice middle reliever capable of starting if something goes wrong with the starting rotation in terms of injuries, etc.

 

You're mistaking velocity with stuff. His Lince-changeup is ten tons of sick, to the point that he actually has more movement on it than Lince does. He also has good movement on his fastball.

You can't just remove those two outings to support your argument. Remember when you blasted anyone who did that for Lindstrom?

I don't see why you're so sure Hensley's K rates will drop.

 

 

 

He doesn't have K per inning type stuff.

Last year, he had a couple of games that really boosted his #'s.

 

April 28th & April 30th, he pitched 5 innings and got 13 K's.

 

Take away the two outings which were an anamoly, and he ends up with 64 K's in 70 innings.

 

He just doesn't have the stuff to overpower hitters and K a guy per inning, as he did last year. His career track record (both in the majors and minors) also show that he's not really much of a strikeout pitcher.

 

He's always been more of a guy who pitches to contact, and gets groundballs at a solid rate.

 

Obviously, it's not surprising that his K/9 went up some as he went from starter to reliever, but they went up too much; his K/9 #'s all things considered seemed rather fluky.

 

I think everyone was extremely surprised last season when he opened the season with 21 K's in 12.2 innings, in April.

You need to remember that the Lince-changeup that he learned before 2009 has basically rebuilt his career. He's not the pitcher that he's "always been".

 

Now, I'm not saying that he'll keep up all those K's, I'm just saying you're oversimplifying who he is as a pitcher by saying he doesn't have "stuff" and talking about who he was years ago instead of who he is now.

Also, while I like Hensley, I wouldn't expect him to be as elite as he was last year, again. He doesn't have overpowering stuff; once his K's go down in 2011, he'll be more like a nice middle reliever capable of starting if something goes wrong with the starting rotation in terms of injuries, etc.

 

You're mistaking velocity with stuff. His Lince-changeup is ten tons of sick, to the point that he actually has more movement on it than Lince does. He also has good movement on his fastball.

 

 

I'm not saying he's a bad pitcher; I'm just saying that he had never proven that he could K guys at such a rate before last year, and his first month of the season really boosted his K/9 #'s some making me believe some of it was fluky.

 

Also, all I'm saying is that I don't expect him to be elite, again. He put up a 2.19 ERA last year which was great, and I'd say really unexpected. He did end up with a 3.46 xFIP, however, as opposed to a guy like Leo who's FIP/xFIP were both under 3.

 

Basically, what I'm trying to say is that I'd expect Hensley to be more of a low to mid 3 ERA guy; that's not bad, but if you can keep Leo, there's more upside with Leo. There's also more upside with a guy like Dunn, as well. If Dunn lowers his walk rates against right-handed hitters, he'll end up being the setup guy, sooner rather than later.

 

Plus, Hensley's been a starter before so having a guy like him in middle relief capable of multiple innings in occasional appearances is more valuable than just having him as the 8th setup guy, imo.

You can't just remove those two outings to support your argument. Remember when you blasted anyone who did that for Lindstrom?

 

 

 

13 K's in 5 innings doesn't happen very often; even for the elite pitchers in baseball.

As for Lindstrom, I'd say I was right about him, at this point. The Astros don't want him anymore, either.

i would take matt lindstrom back but only as a setup guys which he was really good at in 07 and 08. However, in all cases, i would much rather have leo and i dont think randy choate is anything special either.

 

dennys reyes would have been nice but even joe beimel would be good.

 

also, i dont see why the team is opposed to bringing ohman back. he could be a good last resort.

I didn't realize how good Leo's peripherals were last year. Groundballs way up, and Line Drives/Fly Balls way down.

 

I wonder why BIll James' projections have him losing almost 2.5K/9 randomly at age 28? I understand the HR/9 going back up, but I'm surprised to see James predict an ERA of 3.8 when the guy is in his prime, he was actually unlikely with BABIP, and the FIP and xFIP are both south of 3, as Erick mentioned.

i would take matt lindstrom back but only as a setup guys which he was really good at in 07 and 08. However, in all cases, i would much rather have leo and i dont think randy choate is anything special either.

 

dennys reyes would have been nice but even joe beimel would be good.

 

also, i dont see why the team is opposed to bringing ohman back. he could be a good last resort.

 

 

 

Choate is a better lefty specialist than all those lefties you just mentioned.

Replacing Nunez with Choate makes the bullpen worse, not better.

 

 

Most of us were going off of the assumption that Nunez was a goner, anyway. So to me, he'd more be replacing Badenhop, i.e.

 

 

Without an improved Nunez, the Marlins bullpen is quite ordinary.

 

Dunn has proven nothing and Webb and Mujica did not get the key innings in San Diego.

 

Most fans overvalue their players. The Marlin fans on this board seem to undervalue their own and over value everyone else's.

Just to be sure I'm understanding this right: Hensley can't close because he's missing that "killer instinct."