April 2, 201214 yr WPA attempts to do what you guys are looking for. Nolasco was -.8 wins last year. Was 1.0 the year before. It's a counting stat that takes each start into account. My biggest issue with WPA, though, is it is context-dependent, so a strikeout with two out and the bases loaded is worth more than a bases-empty strikeout. Which is what the stat is looking for, so it succeeds there, obviously. But it creates a situation where two pitchers with identical stats could have two different values based on context over the course of a season, which gives it little predictive value.
April 3, 201214 yr I think we would've been better off trading Gaby to TB for Wade Davis, an idea that was floating during the time we were going hard after Pujols, and then we would've moved LoMo to 1st and pin Cogz or whomever as the everyday LF... Wade Davis sucks. Don't see how he sucks. Wouldn't do that trade, though. He's not good. He hasn't been good at all for two years now and isn't even in their rotation anymore. The only reason he's a name at this point is because he was once a top prospect, and he's been lucky with his ERA because the Rays defense is phenomenal.
April 3, 201214 yr WPA attempts to do what you guys are looking for. Nolasco was -.8 wins last year. Was 1.0 the year before. It's a counting stat that takes each start into account. My biggest issue with WPA, though, is it is context-dependent, so a strikeout with two out and the bases loaded is worth more than a bases-empty strikeout. Which is what the stat is looking for, so it succeeds there, obviously. But it creates a situation where two pitchers with identical stats could have two different values based on context over the course of a season, which gives it little predictive value. This isn't on point with your post, but I'll quote it anyway:So, it's fair to say that there's a point at which if a pitcher gives up X runs, giving up X+Y runs changes the odds of winning very little.So, maybe when Nolasco totally bombs, assuming that their are no ill mental effects, shouldn't Ozzie just leave him in there for at least an amount of pitches --or maybe more precisely, an amount of effort -- akin to a typical start? Maybe we take him out too soon. If it's 9-1 in the 3rd inning, maybe he should just be left out there.I suppose that's not too different of a concept than the reason for throwing your worst pitcher AKA mop-up guy in there in such a scenario. Basically, if a guy's probably going to suck anyway, and you have little to no chance of winning a game, you might as well leave him in (longer) to save other arms.
April 3, 201214 yr I would say it all depends on that pitcher's recent workload. If he threw 120 pitches in his last start, taking him out early probably isn't a bad idea, because his arm could use the rest anyways. But more often than not, I think you're probably not wrong. And I remember that happening with Nolasco a few times last year.
April 3, 201214 yr Stop looking up elusive numbers you guys. You're just trying to make the rest of us look dumb. Come on guys. Fellas.
April 3, 201214 yr In major league history, a starting pitcher has given up 5 or more runs in less than 2 innings 5,982 times, and his team has won 655 times. That is a 10.9 winning percentage. In major league history, a starting pitcher has given up 9 or more runs in less than 2 innings 95 times, and his team has won 1 times. That is a 1.1 winning percentage. I do have to ask you, bob, what about the times where a team goes down 7, 8, 9, 10 or more to nothing in the first 2 innings but use more than one pitcher? What are the comeback rates on that?
April 3, 201214 yr I think we would've been better off trading Gaby to TB for Wade Davis, an idea that was floating during the time we were going hard after Pujols, and then we would've moved LoMo to 1st and pin Cogz or whomever as the everyday LF... Wade Davis sucks. Don't see how he sucks. Wouldn't do that trade, though. He's not good. He hasn't been good at all for two years now and isn't even in their rotation anymore. The only reason he's a name at this point is because he was once a top prospect, and he's been lucky with his ERA because the Rays defense is phenomenal. He may not be good, but I don't think he sucks. He's shown that he can have success in the big leagues. #Don'tknowwhywe'rearguingthis
April 3, 201214 yr In major league history, a starting pitcher has given up 5 or more runs in less than 2 innings 5,982 times, and his team has won 655 times. That is a 10.9 winning percentage. In major league history, a starting pitcher has given up 9 or more runs in less than 2 innings 95 times, and his team has won 1 times. That is a 1.1 winning percentage. I do have to ask you, bob, what about the times where a team goes down 7, 8, 9, 10 or more to nothing in the first 2 innings but use more than one pitcher? What are the comeback rates on that? I could check, but I would imagine they're about the same. I'll give it a shot in a few minutes.
April 3, 201214 yr Author I think we would've been better off trading Gaby to TB for Wade Davis, an idea that was floating during the time we were going hard after Pujols, and then we would've moved LoMo to 1st and pin Cogz or whomever as the everyday LF... So you would have essentially replaced Nolasco with Davis, a move that changes nothing, and then replaced Gaby with Coghlan, costing us offense. Then you would have done what with Nolasco? Thankfully you aren't running our team, or you would have made a completely uneccessary move that would have hurt our team overall. I think we win with pitching and defense, and just enough offense...and I think that Wade Davis is worth probably 2 or 3 more W's than Ricky...
April 3, 201214 yr Author I think we would've been better off trading Gaby to TB for Wade Davis, an idea that was floating during the time we were going hard after Pujols, and then we would've moved LoMo to 1st and pin Cogz or whomever as the everyday LF... Wade Davis sucks. He's proven in a tough NL East...
April 3, 201214 yr I'm worried about both Zambrano and nolasco.nit would've all worked out had we gotten CJ or Fielder
April 3, 201214 yr I'm worried about both Zambrano and nolasco.nit would've all worked out had we gotten CJ or Fielder hang on now, before we all start panicking..lets wait for the first 3 starts from Ricky and Zanbron before we make any assumptions. Spring training is just that... training.
April 3, 201214 yr I think we would've been better off trading Gaby to TB for Wade Davis, an idea that was floating during the time we were going hard after Pujols, and then we would've moved LoMo to 1st and pin Cogz or whomever as the everyday LF... Wade Davis sucks. He's proven in a tough NL East... Huh?
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