Beinfest has said that the D. Lee trade freed up money to resign AJ Burnett but he wont be back from Tommy John until around June and theres no indication that he can step in right away and be effective. If they can afford it, i think the Marlins should beep Redman in the rotation until AJ is ready. By then, it will be really close to the trading deadline when we can get top return for him. Another option for the Marlins might be what they did w/ Matt Mantei - a hard thrower w/ arm problems - cut down his innings pitched by making him a closer. What do you guys think?

I dont really know.

 

With Burnett coming back 1 or 2 months after the season we will need another starter for those 1 or 2 months untill AJ comes back.

I dont really know.

 

With Burnett coming back 1 or 2 months after the season we will need another starter for those 1 or 2 months untill AJ comes back.

AJ won't become a starter right away.It's going to take time before he can become a starter again.AJ will be coming out of the bullpen at first.

I agree with you dolphinfan about keeping Redman at least until AJ is back & healthy, but I think we're in the minority.

 

A lot of people seem to think he won't be back.

i dont think we need redman....throw helling or phelps or tejera in that 5th spot, or maybe wayne will do well in ST.....

I'm not against keeping Mark Redman until we know more about AJ's possible return BUT it's all about getting payroll down to $60 million. By signing Lowell and Castillo and assuming for a minute that Pudge is next, even with Lee, Enc, A Fox, Redmond, Uggie AND Redman gone, we're still over budget.

 

Unless there's more money available than the $60 million I'm afraid Redman's gone sooner rather than later.

 

My guess, this week. Maybe next.

I'm not against keeping Mark Redman until we know more about AJ's possible return BUT it's all about getting payroll down to $60 million. By signing Lowell and Castillo and assuming for a minute that Pudge is next, even with Lee, Enc, A Fox, Redmond, Uggie AND Redman gone, we're still over budget.

 

Unless there's more money available than the $60 million I'm afraid Redman's gone sooner rather than later.

 

My guess, this week. Maybe next.

we are not overbudget with all those guys gone

redmond may not go, depending on what goes on with pudge......i would say hollandsworthitsometimes will be gone before redmond

we are not overbudget with all those guys gone

 

We most certainly are over budget, by at least $5 million and possibly more.

 

And yes that number includes Hollandsworth's departure as well. It also includes Mordy taking a paycut to stay.

 

Re-signing Luis was economically a hard pill to swallow. The only hope I saw was to be able to replace him with a player for a million or less.

 

The only other option to get payroll under control (meaning within budget) is to not sign Pudge, which I am loathe to do. For a number of reasons, having come this far, we need to re-sign the guy.

IF WE TRADE M. REDMAN WE CAN SAVE ABOUT 3 MILLION A SEASON RIGHT?

IF WE TRADE M. REDMAN WE CAN SAVE ABOUT 3 MILLION A SEASON RIGHT?

 

Yes. And after we trade him we'll still be over budget.

i dont think we need redman....throw helling or phelps or tejera in that 5th spot, or maybe wayne will do well in ST.....

Helling may or may not come back but if he does i would throw him in there.

 

No to Tejera and Wayne.

Assuming Redman will get $3M, Pudge $9M, Urbina $4.5M, and non-tendering Encarnacion puts us just below $60M.

 

I'm not sure where all these worst case estimates for $80-90M to keep the team together came from. The FA market is slow this year and arbitration values will be a bit lower as well.

 

Our rotation will get modest increases...probably 12M for all six (assuming we keep Redman until AJ is ready to go). The bullpen with Ugie and Looper would be around 11M. Position players around $32M (excluding Encarnacion), leaving $5M for the bench.

I have the starting eight, Pierre, Castillo, Pudge, Lowell, Cabs, Conine, Choi and Gonzo at $30.70 million including Castillo's and Lowell's estimated amounts as of this morning news stories. That includes $8 million for Pudge.

 

There's $12.50 million (with AJ and without Redman) for starters.

 

There's $8.80 million for relievers.

 

And $3.15 million for the bench including Mordy taking a 15% cut.

 

I think what you aren't factoring in is the $11 million due to Pudge and Hampton in deferred compensation which the Marlins' FO says is included in their $60 million figure.

 

Add it all up and you get $66.15 million, and that's with a bench of mostly untested AAA players, Castro, Banks and Mordy.

you're looking at 12.5 million for the starting rotation without Redman...

 

i think all 6 can be had at about 13.5 unless these figures are way off...

 

AJ Burnett 2,500,000

Mark Redman 3,000,000

Brad Penny 3,000,000

Josh Beckett 2,100,000

Carl Pavano 2,500,000

Dontrelle Willis 375,000

 

these were Berardino's projections back around August, so the numbers could be off a little. whether AJ takes a bit less, or whether we sign any of these guys longer term (which would be nice)

 

IMO, I'd rather spend the money on a solid 5th starter and save $$ on the bullpen or bench than risk putting someone like Tejera in there every 5th game.

 

Keep in mind how often we reminded ourselves that our #4 and 5 starters last season were almost always better than the other team's.

I have to run to pick up my kid at school but even if I'm $1-2 million off among the starting pitchers we're still over by $4 million. I'll list my payroll estimates later.

you're looking at 12.5 million for the starting rotation without Redman...

 

i think all 6 can be had at about 13.5 unless these figures are way off...

 

AJ Burnett 2,500,000

Mark Redman 3,000,000

Brad Penny 3,000,000

Josh Beckett 2,100,000

Carl Pavano 2,500,000

Dontrelle Willis 375,000

 

these were Berardino's projections back around August, so the numbers could be off a little. whether AJ takes a bit less, or whether we sign any of these guys longer term (which would be nice)

 

IMO, I'd rather spend the money on a solid 5th starter and save $$ on the bullpen or bench than risk putting someone like Tejera in there every 5th game.

 

Keep in mind how often we reminded ourselves that our #4 and 5 starters last season were almost always better than the other team's.

Pretty good estimates. We keep Redman until AJ gets back into the rotation around the All Star break.....and then consider trading him to fill in a hole. Another approach would be to keep Redman and use Dontrelle as a lefty reliever like we did in the WS.

It all comes down to getting the payroll down to $60 million. I think if we have to let Big Red go before the season then package him with Enc. I think we could get some very nice prospects for the.

Comparing your numbers to mine I project the following:

 

AJ Burnett 2,500,000 - I have 2,500,000

Mark Redman 3,000,000 - I have gone

Brad Penny 3,000,000 - I have 3,500,000 (he's arb eligible)

Josh Beckett 2,100,000 - I have 2,750,000 (Josh gets more than $400K raise)

Carl Pavano 2,500,000 - I have 2,750,000

Dontrelle Willis 375,000 - I have 1,000,000

 

We agree on Burnett.

 

I believe both Cabrera and Willis will get new contracts in the vicinity of $1,000,000 each (including incentives) for 2004. You can't have Willis out there whoring himself to a hundred card and autograph signings like he did this year, the kid won't make it til july 4th. You have Willis at $375,000 which means you are not including bonuses, incentives, etc., my numbers include those.

 

Penny is arb eligible and can ask for, and will probably receive a hefty raise (including incentives), well into the $3 mil range.

 

Beckett is going to get more than the minimum raise after his post season performance, especially with incentives. I expect the Marlins to offer him a three year contract in the range of $9 million. If they don't next year or the year after his value will go through the roof in arbitration.

 

Pavano is arb eligible and will get a big raise. I expect he'll sign a two year $5.5 mil contract, the equivalent of Redman earned this last season.

 

So, you have a total (I assume not including incentives and not including Redman so we can compare apples to apples) of $10,475,000.

 

I have a payroll of $12,500,000 including incentives etc.

 

So we have a 2,000,000 (two million dollar) difference. Even if we used your numbers the Fish are still $4 million over payroll WITHOUT Mark Redman.

I thought Beinfest was going to offer Burnett a 20% paycut to $2M in arbitration. He'll get just that. What arbitrator is going to give an injured starter any more?

Beinfest, it was suggested in the Palm Beach Post, may follow the guidelines of MLB and offer him a 20% cut and try to get him signed for $2 million. Absent a contract the parties are headed to arbitration and you can be sure AJ and his agent will ask for a raise. So in my numbers I used AJ's 2003 salary as a benchmark for my 2004 payroll number.

Arbitration doesn't work like that. The arbitrator choose either the club's offer or the player's demand. And Burnett's agents have absolutly no case with the injury and all. It will $2M.

redmond may not go, depending on what goes on with pudge......i would say hollandsworthitsometimes will be gone before redmond

Hollandsworth is a Free Agent