You cannot anticipate what role a player will have in the majors by assuming that his minor league numbers will carry over.

Making this more difficult than it is. How do any prospects get looked at or get a chance to move up. Probably by looking at what they posted in the previous levels, high school, college, or minors. I mean you have to make some assumptions on a prospect or there is no point in even calling them a prospect. What better way to make an assumption than based on what they have already proven and making a guess at what their physical abilities will become.

You look at the players tools/skill set. Keys has a limited range of offensive skills, which puts a low ceiling on his upside. I've explained this countless times to you both already. That's precisely why Baseball America and Fangraphs are ignoring him. His upside is really limited compared to most other outfield prospects.

Dude, nobody disagrees his ceiling is limited without power. Nobody. We just think the kid deserves a little more credit, he just continues to hit at every level and the scary part is he gets better with every promotion. That's it.

You cannot anticipate what role a player will have in the majors by assuming that his minor league numbers will carry over.

Making this more difficult than it is. How do any prospects get looked at or get a chance to move up. Probably by looking at what they posted in the previous levels, high school, college, or minors. I mean you have to make some assumptions on a prospect or there is no point in even calling them a prospect. What better way to make an assumption than based on what they have already proven and making a guess at what their physical abilities will become.

You look at the players tools/skill set. Keys has a limited range of offensive skills, which puts a low ceiling on his upside. I've explained this countless times to you both already. That's precisely why Baseball America and Fangraphs are ignoring him. His upside is really limited compared to most other outfield prospects.

Dude, nobody disagrees his ceiling is limited without power. Nobody. We just think the kid deserves a little more credit, he just continues to hit at every level and the scary part is he gets better with every promotion. That's it.

Since you seem surprised that BA and Fangraphs aren't giving him more credit, you are overrating Keys and underestimating the importance of his complete lack of power. He also hasn't done anything about high A ball yet.

 

You are making him to be much more than he should be considered to be right now.

Since you seem surprised that BA and Fangraphs aren't giving him more credit, you are overrating Keys and underestimating the importance of his complete lack of power. He also hasn't done anything about high A ball yet.

 

You are making him to be much more than he should be considered to be right now.

 

Not really, making him out to be more than he is would be saying he should be a top 5 player in the organization. He is arguably a top 10 player, I think he's a much more valuable prospect than Realmuto. My opinion is that he is absolutely a top 15 prospect in our system. If they don't want to agree, fine, I just disagree.

 

We're also talking about two lists that don't include Wittgren. So, the credibility level is... suspect. Whatever, it's really not a big deal, I guess I just have more faith in him than others. We see how often the prototypical "Toolsy" players like Reggie Abercrombie and Issac Galloway always work out, right?

I have a hard time seeing a player with such limited offensive upside being a top 15 prospect on a list that also includes pitchers.

 

You are just overrating him and underestimating what his faults do to his value. You do this with a lot of Marlins players.

I have a hard time seeing a player with such limited offensive upside being a top 15 prospect on a list that also includes pitchers.

 

You are just overrating him and underestimating what his faults do to his value. You do this with a lot of Marlins players.

 

Because despite the lack of power, there are very few people wearing a professional uniform that can post batting averages over .330 and OBP over .400 at any level of the game. That makes his limited power less important. If you don't agree that's fine, but when a player can hit and get on base like that other things become less relevant. Would power help? Yea, it would make him Barry Fucking Bonds. But you don't have to be Barry Bonds to be valuable.

I'm not convinced that Keys can even put up a .270 average and .330 OBP in the major leagues without seeing him much beyond high A ball. The point is that he has a very limited number of areas that he needs to excel in to be a solid major league player.

 

You just have way too high expectations. I seem to recall you saying in the past that he projects to be a .400 OBP player in the big leagues. You're just being ridiculous.

I'm not convinced that Keys can even put up a .270 average and .330 OBP in the major leagues without seeing him much beyond high A ball. The point is that he has a very limited number of areas that he needs to excel in to be a solid major league player.

 

You just have way too high expectations. I seem to recall you saying in the past that he projects to be a .400 OBP player in the big leagues. You're just being ridiculous.

 

I would never say any minor league player projects to have a .400 OBP in the majors, no matter who they are. That's an elite group of people.

 

I'm not even disagreeing with you regarding my expectations, I have no idea what to expect, he has a little ways to go. However I don't disregard players that have that kind of hit tool... It's just silly to when he posts stupid numbers like he has.

The problem is that you have zero understanding of how to use statistics or contextualize numbers. This is plainly career through what you are trying to argue with the Pierre thing.

The problem is that you have zero understanding of how to use statistics or contextualize numbers. This is plainly career through what you are trying to argue with the Pierre thing.

 

No, I choose to use statistics that we've been using to evaluate players for decades instead of using his OBpZWR+.

Never, and I mean NEVER, EVER!!!! insult OBpZWR+! IT'S THE ULTIMATE BASEBALL STAT!

WHERE IS ZACK COX ON THIS LIST?!?!?!?1 UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

The reason his lack of power is a problem is the fact that means he's not going to walk in the majors because pitchers will throw the ball right over the plate cuz he aint gonna do shit with it.

 

Easy quick example:

David Eckstein's BB% in the minors: 12%

Majors: 6.5%

 

A bit on the extreme side but that shows you just how much walk % drops when you get to the major league level. And Eckstein's MILB .ISO is considerably higher than Keys's (.100 v.s. .060)

 

I severely doubt he'll walk ~8% in the majors (MLB average. 10% right now in the minors, I'd wager a guess of around 6% in the majors), nor will he post BABIP's north of .350, both due to his lack of power. He's able to abuse minor league pitching with his skillset, but that very, very rarely translates to the major league level. Could he be a 5th OFer? Sure. But maybe being a bench OFer doesn't warrant a high ranking. We're talking about him MAYBE being able to support a mid to upper .600 OPS with okay speed/defense for a CFer. Super cool. If he was an IFer, he'd have more value, but he's an OFer. There is a high standard for OFers. He doesn't reach it.

 

I feel like this is John Raynor all over again but at least Raynor had average power.

The problem is that you have zero understanding of how to use statistics or contextualize numbers. This is plainly career through what you are trying to argue with the Pierre thing.

 

No, I choose to use statistics that we've been using to evaluate players for decades instead of using his OBpZWR+.

You aren't even using "old" statistics intelligently.

This is a stupid argument, he doesn't have enough AB's in double A to even begin to try to predict his ability. I can give a range but the reality is that we will be off either up or down of what he actually ends up producing if at all on the MLB stage. The other thing that is missing here is Keys is still young enough to develop double and triple power. it isn't like he is a 26 year old who we drafted out of college. He is a high school pick who should have gone to college. If you look at him that way he isn't a sure thing but he isn't a bust. Think of him like Chad Wallach, our pick from cal fulerton. If Keys dominates double A, power or not, with a wOBA over 120 he deserves to be the real deal. until then he is just a guy to watch. His value will be made clear by the end of this season.