Seriously look at the numbers. The Reds led the NL and were third in baseball in saving runs due to good fielding plays with 10 runs saved. They were also 6th in the NL in ultimate zone rating and one Def rating (my favorite defensive stat). Yeah they made a bunch of errors but only lost 6.5 runs to them. There's a reason they also led baseball in FIP. Because their pitchers including Straily could be blamed for most of their runs.

 

So again he got helped by a decent defense thus his extremely low BABIP and BAA that aren't sustainable with a guy of his skill level

 

Hopefully I'm not the only one who sees this 

 

 

Seriously look at the numbers. The Reds led the NL and were third in baseball in saving runs due to good fielding plays with 10 runs saved. They were also 6th in the NL in ultimate zone rating and one Def rating (my favorite defensive stat). Yeah they made a bunch of errors but only lost 6.5 runs to them. There's a reason they also led baseball in FIP. Because their pitchers including Straily could be blamed for most of their runs.

 

So again he got helped by a decent defense thus his extremely low BABIP and BAA.

 

Hopefully I'm not the only one who sees this 

 

you're wrong. the low babip benefited a bunch because of his 5th best in the mlb fly ball %. I'd take the marlins OF over the Reds defensively easily

 

 

I'm sure Hammerhead has reasons for whatever he's saying but Straily isn't a AAAA player. He's a big league starter and can contribute to this team.

 

 

also has a career 11.5% iff which is elite, although it dropped off last year

 

 

Dan Straily might bring[uSER=5078]@pollyvonwog[/uSER] back from Cleveland.

 

 

I also implore everyone to check out Straily's 2nd half, where he was terrific (ks way up, bbs way down) after making some adjustments to his FB (check the article I posted).

 

More I learn about Straily more I like it 

 

 

[uSER=5078]@pollyvonwog[/uSER] agreeing with me on this really makes me feel like I am right for once. I mean this literally NEVER happens.

 

 

you're wrong. the low babip benefited a bunch because of his 5th best in the mlb fly ball %. I'd take the marlins OF over the Reds defensively easily

 

The one thing he's good at, getting fly balls. As I've said the Marlins hope he gives up less homers in a bigger park. Yeah he was victimized a bit by GABP. But you can't discount the fact the defense helped him.

 

His control isn't good as I've said. His walk rate proves it. He doesn't miss barrels as proven by his contact rates. His BABIP and BAA are not sustainable even with the best defense behind him.

 

Also last year was his first in the NL so more reports will be circling this year.

 

Being a contact pitcher or fly ball pitcher is fine but if you're gonna do that you need to also be able to pitch to your situation and get ground balls which Straily doesn't do and strike guys out which he doesn't do.

 

If I had to make an educated guess, he will never post a BABIP that low again. And he won't post another ERA under four. That's what we gave up our best pitching prospect above single A for. Not to mention another decent swing guy.

 

 

Confirming and also expanding on what we've been speculating all day, Hill says Straily Locke Urena and Nicolino will compete for the last rotation spot with the last bullpen spot most likely coming from that group as well.

 

 

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The one thing he's good at, getting fly balls. As I've said the Marlins hope he gives up less homers in a bigger park. Yeah he was victimized a bit by GABP. But you can't discount the fact the defense helped him.

 

His control isn't good as I've said. His walk rate proves it. He doesn't miss barrels as proven by his contact rates. His BABIP and BAA are not sustainable even with the best defense behind him.

 

Also last year was his first in the NL so more reports will be circling this year.

 

Being a contact pitcher or fly ball pitcher is fine but if you're gonna do that you need to also be able to pitch to your situation and get ground balls which Straily doesn't do and stroke guys out which he doesn't do.

 

If I had to make a very educated guess, he will never post a BABIP that low again. And he won't post another ERA under four. That's what we gave up our best pitching prospect above single A for. Not to mention another decent swing guy.

 

he's not a contact pitcher his career k/9 is like 8. contact pitchers are generally gb guys. he's a mix of FB with ks and definitely walks too much although got that under control his last 2nd 90 innings in cinci (28 bbs/82 ks compared to 45 bbs 80 ks in first 100 ip). He clearly made adjustments in that 2nd 100 as there's plenty of evidence in that FG article. 

 

Cinci HR park factor is #4 mlb and marlins is 26 or something. His HR/FB is definitely going down with his FB % staying very similar which will offset the increase in babip at worst. The dude has a good 3 pitches with solid swgstrks on all. I don't get the hate on this one. 

 

 

he's basically the anti jared cosart. He goes out there with a plan and actually knows what he's doing. 

 

 

he's not a contact pitcher his career k/9 is like 8. contact pitchers are generally gb guys. he's a mix of FB with ks and definitely walks too much although got that under control his last 2nd 90 innings in cinci (28 bbs/82 ks compared to 45 bbs 80 ks in first 100 ip). He clearly made adjustments in that 2nd 100 as there's plenty of evidence in that FG article. 

 

Cinci HR park factor is #4 mlb and marlins is 26 or something. His HR/FB is definitely going down with his FB % staying very similar. The dude has a good 3 pitches with solid swgstrks on all. I don't get the hate on this one. 

 

I think we agree his homer totals will go down. Where I am skeptical is the batted ball stats. Anyone who posts a line drive rating and hard contact rating as high as he did can't seriously be counted on to post a ERA lower than 4 to 4.5. The batted ball stats prove he is not missing bats, adjustments aside.

 

He also gets in tons of trouble with walks which suggests bad command.

 

If we would've given up Brice and maybe Dillon Peters for this guy I wouldn't be nearly as spiteful. But to lose our best starter above A who is damn close to being ready rather than just going with Locke until he is here (and there is absolutely no denying Castillo already has better stuff than Straily, just needs to command it) makes this trade stupid

 

 

[uSER=5078]@pollyvonwog[/uSER] agreeing with me on this really makes me feel like I am right for once. I mean this literally NEVER happens.

 

everyone can be right on this one. castillo could become a SP 3 (more likely a RP), brice could become elite closer, and that other guy his 69 HR one year while straily wins the cy the next 5 years in row

 

 

everyone can be right on this one. castillo could become a SP 3 (more likely a RP), brice could become elite closer, and that other guy his 69 HR one year while straily wins the cy the next 5 years in row

 

Well if Straily wins the Cy Young 5 years in a row, it'd be quite a feat for a AAAA player

 

 

he's basically the anti jared cosart. He goes out there with a plan and actually knows what he's doing. 

I thought that meant he just doesn't gamble.

I liked Castillo and Brice, didn't know much about White. I hope they all succeed. 

 

 

I think we agree his homer totals will go down. Where I am skeptical is the batted ball stats. Anyone who posts a line drive rating and hard contact rating as high as he did can't seriously be counted on to post a ERA lower than 4 to 4.5. The batted ball stats prove he is not missing bats, adjustments aside.

 

He also gets in tons of trouble with walks which suggests bad command.

 

If we would've given up Brice and maybe Dillon Peters for this guy I wouldn't be nearly as spiteful. But to lose our best starter above A who is damn close to being ready rather than just going with Locke until he is here (and there is absolutely no denying Castillo already has better stuff than Straily, just needs to command it) makes this trade stupid

 

im saying his command vastly improved his last 90 innings via adjustments that he publicly made which were supported with heat maps (pls look at the article i posted). you keep glossing over that key point.

 

his ld% was league avg and the diff b/t med/hard hit is so subjective

 

 

Well if Straily wens the Cy Young 5 years in a row, it'd be quite a feat for a AAAA player

Wait until whenever we trade Straily how pissed everyone gets that we traded away this first ballot Hall of Famer.

I liked Castillo and Brice, didn't know much about White. I hope they all succeed. 

Racist

also of note, straily is a bad ass against lefties

 

 

 The dude has a good 3 pitches with solid swgstrks on all. I don't get the hate on this one. 

 

Look at his pitch values. He only has two plus pitches. A semi decent fastball at 3.0 and a really good slider at 13.9.

 

So if you think a two pitch pitcher can succeed as a starter, sure he's good

 

 

I think we agree his homer totals will go down. Where I am skeptical is the batted ball stats. Anyone who posts a line drive rating and hard contact rating as high as he did can't seriously be counted on to post a ERA lower than 4 to 4.5. The batted ball stats prove he is not missing bats, adjustments aside.

 

He also gets in tons of trouble with walks which suggests bad command.

 

If we would've given up Brice and maybe Dillon Peters for this guy I wouldn't be nearly as spiteful. But to lose our best starter above A who is damn close to being ready rather than just going with Locke until he is here (and there is absolutely no denying Castillo already has better stuff than Straily, just needs to command it) makes this trade stupid

 

he is missing bats though!!!! 7% on the fb, 14.4% on the slider, and 15% on the change. All those trended UP as the season went on. those are all above avg swgstrk rates

 

 

Look at his pitch values. He only has two plus pitches. A semi decent fastball at 3.0 and a really good slider at 13.9.

 

So if you think a two pitch pitcher can succeed as a starter, sure he's good

 

that's your boy castillo w/ two pitches

 

Straily changed his fb vertical realease pt: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitching-not-throwing-with-dan-straily/

 

it's a much better pitch now

 

 

Man @Hammerhead is running quite a smear campaign on Straily. If he only came up in the fish system,he'd love him.