January 22, 20188 yr I think they also probably could have gotten Flaherty but im assuming given his little bit lower ceiling than Alcantara and the fact that we've gotten quite a few low ceiling high floor SP's recently that we took a risk on Alcantara. Especially given that scouting reports dont seem to have too YUGE of a difference between the two anyways. I believe a package of Flaherty, Sandy and Mags for Ozuna would've been good and fair. Again I am ok with the trade, but would have really liked it then.
January 22, 20188 yr They have gotten criticism, but I don't think people are unilaterally saying that the sky is falling. I might be overrating Ozuna's value a tad, but the fact is, that return was still very underwhelming. Are you suggesting otherwise? I also don't think McCutchen is a good comp either because he has only one year left before free agency, is four years older than Ozuna is, and is coming off two relatively down. Hands down Ozuna should have gotten a much better haul than McCutchen. Also, I think when you assess things, you need to start being more open to the possibility that Yelich and Realmuto won't be with the team a few or even a couple of years from now. I agree Yelich is a better barometer and should net a ton, but that's still carrying the risk of being another Cabrera trade situation. When I evaluate the core, I am assuming that both Realmuto and Yelich aren't both there for 2020 and the returns are TBD. And yeah, you can get some decent talent for Straily sure, but I still think you are getting B prospects when the Marlins really need a larger core of blue chip prospects to make this work. Their only real chances there now are Realmuto and Yelich and who knows how that goes. I think you are overvaluing Bour a tad based on the age, defensive shortcomings, injury risk. He could be enticing to an AL team but he's not going to bring back anything amazing. I agree with Lou in the sense that I think you are undervaluing Straily and Bour, straily especially. He's not a world beater and wont be anyone's number 1 or 2, but good cost controlled pitching is really hard to come by. Bour's value right now isnt good, but if he stays healthy and hits like he's hit pretty much his whole career, he could be a guy that gets you something good at the deadline, especially from an AL team.
January 22, 20188 yr I believe a package of Flaherty, Sandy and Mags for Ozuna would've been good and fair. Again I am ok with the trade, but would have really liked it then. I agree, I was saying at the time of the trade that I just didnt want Sandy as the number 1 guy in a deal because I think he has flame out potential, I was just trying to think about and explain why the marlins did what they did. It seems to me like they could have chosen between Flaherty and Alcantara and chose Sandy because he has a higher ceiling and that we had already acquired quite a few low ceiling/high floor guys in the last 8 months or so.
January 23, 20188 yr Author They have gotten criticism, but I don't think people are unilaterally saying that the sky is falling. I might be overrating Ozuna's value a tad, but the fact is, that return was still very underwhelming. Are you suggesting otherwise? I also don't think McCutchen is a good comp either because he has only one year left before free agency, is four years older than Ozuna is, and is coming off two relatively down. Hands down Ozuna should have gotten a much better haul than McCutchen. Also, I think when you assess things, you need to start being more open to the possibility that Yelich and Realmuto won't be with the team a few or even a couple of years from now. I agree Yelich is a better barometer and should net a ton, but that's still carrying the risk of being another Cabrera trade situation. When I evaluate the core, I am assuming that both Realmuto and Yelich aren't both there for 2020 and the returns are TBD. And yeah, you can get some decent talent for Straily sure, but I still think you are getting B prospects when the Marlins really need a larger core of blue chip prospects to make this work. Their only real chances there now are Realmuto and Yelich and who knows how that goes. I think you are overvaluing Bour a tad based on the age, defensive shortcomings, injury risk. He could be enticing to an AL team but he's not going to bring back anything amazing. I mean, have you seen some of the backlash? The sky is falling to many. New boss same as the last (when we don't know at all). I'm fine moving Yelich and Realmuto - but next year. Their returns could fuel those blue chip guys getting in the system, but I think considering they ARE the blue chip guys in their prime, just wait until next year and see if you're right on Alcantara/Guzman/etc. Like no one is going to want 3-4 years of control of Yelich for cheap? Marlins would get the same package as now. Same with a top 5 catcher in baseball under the age of 30. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't see their value shifting between now and July 2019. Have some faith in your scouts. The 2019 team could look a lot different when we see if some of these guys are panning out. And yes, I think they will get a half dozen "B", a half dozen "C+", and a half dozen "WTF" prospects for trading out those other guys, but that's not a bad thing? If you get a few players out of that (and save payroll), you have numerous club controlled years so you can use the real money in free agency. There is real value to a cheap club controlled bullpen, 2-3 SP, half your position bench, and a position starter or two. If say 15-18 guys on your team are good/solid and making $10-15 million collectively on minimums and a cheap first arbitration year for a reliever, you're doing awesome. And that's where Yelich and Realmuto come in at cheap prices, and absolutely no payroll on the 2020 team to sign 5+ real free agents, 2 of which who are probably expensive and longterm. And I don't mean Heath Bell. They have a lot of work to do, and need a lot of luck, I'm just saying they have some pieces that could work out. If they look crappy next summer, move out Yelich and Realmuto, and get excited for 2023 after a few more drafts.
January 23, 20188 yr I think Realmuto's value would decline a bit by waiting until next year. 2 years of control vs 3 is a bit different. Yelich's wouldnt be affected.
January 23, 20188 yr For what it’s worth, the return for Ozuna should’ve indeed been more than the return for McCutchen. And when you look at it that way, I guess they did ok because we did get a lot more for Ozuna than Pittsburgh got for McCutchen. Honestly, the baseball trades haven’t been terrible. It’s just Loria fucked this organization so badly that it’s probably going to take a long time to rebuild it (or build it, since it’s not really a rebuild...the team always sucked).
January 23, 20188 yr For the record, the only borderline terrible trade is the Ozuna one. I think it was a underwhelming return and kind of infuriating but terrible might be a tad bit harsh. The returns for the Stanton and Gordon trades are fine and about what one would expect. But I still don't see a young core intact yet. I'm assuming Yelich and Realmuto are goners so we need to see what happens in terms of hauls. But until then, I think the Marlins have a ton of trades and draft picks to make before I'm remotely confident about the direction of the team. I agree.
January 23, 20188 yr Why are we arguing about these trades? They happened. Some of us(me included) think the trades were good for what they were able to do. Others of us disagree with that sentiment due to the potential for these trades to backfire due to the volatility in the return we got for three of our best players. We can't be sure who was right for at least a year. We might be talking next off-season about how these trades turned our once dying franchise into a stacked farm. We also might be talking about how these trades have prevented us from ever being good ever again. We won't know for a year. Let's just wait and see. Rankings of prospects are dumb. Just look at the numbers and project for yourself. Keep statistical projections in mind.
January 23, 20188 yr Why are we arguing about these trades? They happened. Some of us(me included) think the trades were good for what they were able to do. Others of us disagree with that sentiment due to the potential for these trades to backfire due to the volatility in the return we got for three of our best players. We can't be sure who was right for at least a year. We might be talking next off-season about how these trades turned our once dying franchise into a stacked farm. We also might be talking about how these trades have prevented us from ever being good ever again. We won't know for a year. Let's just wait and see. Rankings of prospects are dumb. Just look at the numbers and project for yourself. Keep statistical projections in mind. Because it's a message board.
January 23, 20188 yr Why are we arguing about these trades? They happened. Some of us(me included) think the trades were good for what they were able to do. Others of us disagree with that sentiment due to the potential for these trades to backfire due to the volatility in the return we got for three of our best players. We can't be sure who was right for at least a year. We might be talking next off-season about how these trades turned our once dying franchise into a stacked farm. We also might be talking about how these trades have prevented us from ever being good ever again. We won't know for a year. Let's just wait and see. Rankings of prospects are dumb. Just look at the numbers and project for yourself. Keep statistical projections in mind. I agree. Ive been saying for a while that we have no idea how we did as none of these guys have put jerseys on or thrown a pitch for the franchise. The major thing for most people on this board and the other board seemed to be that we didnt get flaherty in the ozuna deal, when in reality there doesnt appear to be a huge difference in how scouts perceive the 2 as of this point. Give it a year and reevaluate next offseason and then we can discuss how poorly or well we did.
January 23, 20188 yr I get the issues with Alcantara (I'm skeptical myself), but people are basically undervaluing him at this point. You would think we got a proven bum in return.
January 23, 20188 yr I get the issues with Alcantara (I'm skeptical myself), but people are basically undervaluing him at this point. You would think we got a proven bum in return. Pretty much. People went too far. I understand wanting Flaherty (i did too), but people are acting as if we passed up on Kershaw for Eovaldi. There really isnt much of a difference in the 2 and Alcantara is a riskier pick but has a higher ceiling.
January 23, 20188 yr Author I understand where Lou is coming from by saying "give them a year" but the fact of the matter is that the Marlins have already traded away 3 of their best 5 players and the already week farm system isn't considerably better and still likely in the bottom third. I haven't done the calculations on "what if" scenarios 3 years out from now, but the Marlins really need to crush the Yelich trade and hit the next two drafts on the money for me to have a good feeling about where they are headed. The Marlins should have cash coming off the books by then, but what's going to happen when Jeter realizes that ticket and broadcasting revenue isn't nearly as lucrative as he anticipated? Also, I think people tend to forget the incredibly high failure rate for prospects. Several of the recent acquisitions are the "project" types of players that carry increased risk. I think we are mostly on the same page and this is a glass half full/empty debate when looking at what they are doing, but the issue with moving Yelich and Realmuto is that in a best case scenario, the players they get become as good as they are now. They are young, awesome, controlled for awhile, so it's not worth it to move them until you know you aren't going to field a competitive team in the back half of the Yelich deal. That's an impossible projection based on not knowing what the young SP do in 2018. We haven't even see Rogers yet. Basically, they ultimately may not need those prospects, and replacing Yelich or Realmuto in free agency money is probably double their salaries. Note, if you get the king's ransom for them, do it and figure it out later. As for prospect redundancy, they don't have any with their position players as Anderson and Sierra need to work out as there isn't reliable hope for starting players behind them as of today, but they are starting to legitimately build it with the pitching. As a hypothetical, pick 1 in each grouping: Alcantara/Guzman/Garret - two 2018 top 100 prospects, and a 2017 top 100 prospect who just fell out because of his arm injury, which isn't a career killer like 15 years ago Rogers/Niedert/Let's say they get at least one more Niedert level guy for Straily/Bour which is reasonable - Fringe top 150 prospects right now that can move up easily Peters/M. Gonzalez/Gallen/E.Cabrera(#7 BA prospect for Marlins before the moves)/Kolek/T. Richards/Poteet/etc. - Future Tom Koehler/Urena type guys who can eat innings, or be plus bullpen guys (side note, why did they never put Koehler into the pen!). We can hope for 1 low end Koehler SP from this group right? [i am ignoring they have Urena and Conley controlled through 2021, who each could obviously also settle into a backend SP role] If that turns into just a solid 3-4-5 which isn't asking for much, Chen is healthy in 2020 (it has to happen eventually?), and the bullpen is stacked with Steckenrider, Garcia, Wittgren, and the non-starter options from above, that is all of a sudden 1 good free agent pitcher away from a hypothetical pretty good, cheap, and young pitching staff. Look what Morton did for the Astros this year, and he wasn't that expensive. I will feel much more comfortable with this plan if they are able to acquire some more, at minimum, Niedert/Sierra level prospects for most of Straily/Bour/Castro/Barraclough, a few more M. Gonzalez/Gallen type guys for the Zieglers/Dietrichs/Prados, and they take a fast moving college SP with their 1st or 2nd pick in the 2018 draft to hopefully add to the top rung of that hierarchy. When that happens, which I have to imagine is a July 2018 thing, that's starting to look deep so if you're only hitting on 25% of the guys, you're still getting at least 3 SP and your bullpen by as early as 2020, and as said, that's pretty good with a hopefully healthy Chen and a free agent SP (even if the Wolverine payrolls are off, they will have some money here as the club controlled options wil be plentiful). No idea where they get the bats which is obviously missing from this equation, but my philosophy is to just keep acquiring pitching because once that is figured out, you can trade excess, free agent bats are better investments, and it's easier to find Justin Bour, Dan Uggla, and Cody Ross for free versus whatever the SP equivalent of them is. Just saying. Who knows, but I don't think this is an unfair hypothetical. And if your gut is right and Alcantara and Guzman are RP, and bad things happen like Garret never recovers, Sierra is Joey Gathright and not Juan Pierre, etc., Yelich and Realmuto can still get shipped out and those returns, plus likely a top 3 pick in the 2019 draft, plus whoever makes it from the above is probably a good core for year 5 or 6 of this regime.
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