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Alcantara #87 Keith Law, # 70 BA; Guzman #87 BA


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87. Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins

 

Age: 21 (9/7/1995)

 

Bats: R | Throws: R

 

6-foot-4| 170 pounds

 

Top level: MLB | 2017 rank: Unranked

 

Alcantara was the main prospect sent to the Marlins in the deal that brought Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis. He is a huge right-handed starter who works at 94-100 mph and shows four pitches with none of the secondary offerings very consistent, which in turn lets hitters cheat a little on the big fastball.

 

Alcantara's curveball and slider can both show plus, with the curveball at 79-84 better than the cutter-like slider when I saw him, and he has a changeup that he doesn't use enough to have much feel for it. The changeup was too firm when he worked in relief in the majors, but he created more separation between the change and the fastball in the Arizona Fall League and there's hope it can be a solid-average pitch for him.

 

He's 6-foot-4 with clear starter stuff and arm strength, and looks bigger than his listed 170 pounds with clear starter stuff and arm strength, but he's only 21 and really hasn't gotten his timing or delivery down yet to the point where he can command his stuff.

 

Many pitchers like this never figure it out, but if they do, they can pitch at or near the top of a rotation or in the highest leverage roles in the bullpen. Alcantara should go to Triple-A this year to start, with an emphasis on throwing all of his pitches and trying to command his fastball in the lower half of the zone.

 

http://www.espn.com/insider/mlb/insider/story/_/id/22169243/keith-law-2018-top-100-prospects-nos-100-51-your-team-future-starts-here

 

 

 

 

 

About that complaining they didn't get any top 100 prospects....

 

 

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Lol that's awesome.

 

I'm not good at knowledge of prospects and their rankings so I don't know exactly what to say but I do know that prospect rankings are generally subjective and change often so it doesn't surprise me that we can go from not having any top 100 prospects to suddenly having a few on an updated list. 

 

 

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My complaint was/is we didn't get a Cards top 5 prospect

 

Cardinals have 4 players in BA's top 100: Reyes (17), Flaherty (53), Kelly (55), and O'Neil (87).

 

Alcantara is 70. So they got one of their top 5 prospects.

 

Flaherty would have been nice as well, but this isn't a big difference. Everyone needs to give this a year and see where these guys land as starters.

 

 

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Cardinals have 4 players in BA's top 100: Reyes (17), Flaherty (53), Kelly (55), and O'Neil (87).

 

Alcantara is 70. So they got one of their top 5 prospects.

 

Flaherty would have been nice as well, but this isn't a big difference. Everyone needs to give this a year and see where these guys land as starters.

 

if you put it that way then yes

 

 

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Flaherty is a lower ceiling, higher floor.  Alcantara has a sky high ceiling and lower floor.  If the marlins new scouts wanted the higher ceiling guy given that we've acquired a bunch of potential mid rotation guys in other deals/draft picks (Gallen, Neidert, Rogers, Garrett, Merandy Gonzalez, etc) im quite alright with that and the outrage based on one arbitrary list from months ago was ridiculous.

 

Also, Guzman has a chance to sky rocket up these lists in his first full season of minor league ball.  If he starts the year at Jupiter rather than Greensboro, he should put up monster numbers. I think he ends up being the best pitcher we've acquired in any of these deals 

 

 

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Looks like we got a yuge haul for Ozuna and Stanton after all!

 

I don't think we should go that far, but hopefully this is a learning moment for the peanut gallery of Marlins fans to just chill out and let things run their course. 

 

I would say, hopefully after Straily, Bour, Castro, Prado, Ziegler, Tazawa, Dietrich, Barraclough, and others are traded out between now and July 31st, the overall talent acquisition from trading Ramos, Phelps, Gordon, Stanton, Ozuna, and those guys can be considered a nice young core of players to add to Yelich, Realmuto, and the few internal Marlins prospects (Anderson, Rogers, Garret, Peters, etc.) of note. We'll see.

 

 

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I don't think we should go that far, but hopefully this is a learning moment for the peanut gallery of Marlins fans to just chill out and let things run their course. 

 

I would say, hopefully after Straily, Bour, Castro, Prado, Ziegler, Tazawa, Dietrich, Barraclough, and others are traded out between now and July 31st, the overall talent acquisition from trading Ramos, Phelps, Gordon, Stanton, Ozuna, and those guys can be considered a nice young core of players to add to Yelich, Realmuto, and the few internal Marlins prospects (Anderson, Rogers, Garret, Peters, etc.) of note. We'll see.

 

We'll see how we do in the other trades, and ive said this before, but we've done a really good job adding talent to the system since last years draft.  We're still pretty barren, but it is drastically improved from where we were before last years draft.

 

 

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I don't think I'm being stubborn by saying that these rankings don't change a thing. First of all, I don't place much stock in rankings to begin with, so there's that. Second, the rankings aren't very high anyway and still in the "who the hell knows?" part of the top 100 list. Alcantarra ranked that high is kind of an eye opener, but there are certainly scouting reports out there that would fundamentally disagree. I think most people agree that he has upside, as do I, but more realistically think that he ends up in a relief role at best.

 

Even he Alcantarra turns into a solid reliever, I still think that is an incredibly underwhelming return for Ozuna that points to a slightly inept front office. The fact that JD Martinez still hasn't been signed yet at least in part indicates to me that Ozuna's trade value should have been much higher than what the Marlins ended up getting for him. Ozuna is a 2 year rental, but that's pretty enticing for a team ready to win now that doesn't want to throw down serious cash in free agency.

 

I still disagree with you that the Marlins now have a great core of young talent going forward, although I haven't crunched the numbers for hypothetical scenarios 3 years out. I also can't imagine that improving tremendously after trading Straily, Bour, Castro, Prado, Ziegler, Tazawa, Dietrich, Barraclough, either, because most of those guys don't have considerable surplus value.

 

While I don't care so much about rankings the Marlins needed to get at least one or two players in the top 30 or so for me to be convinced that they have a solid foundation going forward. And that's before trading Yelich.

 

So, to get this straight, you crushed me for weeks talking about me having unrealistic expectations but yet you now say the marlins needed to get at least one or two top 30 players for the 3 guys we've traded?  Not even i expected to get two top 30 players for those 3 guys.

 

 

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I don't think I'm being stubborn by saying that these rankings don't change a thing. First of all, I don't place much stock in rankings to begin with, so there's that. Second, the rankings aren't very high anyway and still in the "who the hell knows?" part of the top 100 list. Alcantarra ranked that high is kind of an eye opener, but there are certainly scouting reports out there that would fundamentally disagree. I think most people agree that he has upside, as do I, but more realistically think that he ends up in a relief role at best.

 

Even he Alcantarra turns into a solid reliever, I still think that is an incredibly underwhelming return for Ozuna that points to a slightly inept front office. The fact that JD Martinez still hasn't been signed yet at least in part indicates to me that Ozuna's trade value should have been much higher than what the Marlins ended up getting for him. Ozuna is a 2 year rental, but that's pretty enticing for a team ready to win now that doesn't want to throw down serious cash in free agency.

 

I still disagree with you that the Marlins now have a great core of young talent going forward, although I haven't crunched the numbers for hypothetical scenarios 3 years out. I also can't imagine that improving tremendously after trading Straily, Bour, Castro, Prado, Ziegler, Tazawa, Dietrich, Barraclough, either, because most of those guys don't have considerable surplus value.

 

While I don't care so much about rankings the Marlins needed to get at least one or two players in the top 30 or so for me to be convinced that they have a solid foundation going forward. And that's before trading Yelich.

 

They have experienced significant criticism here and elsewhere for not landing any top 100 prospects, so the fact they got 2 is very notable. 

 

Secondly, sure Alcantara and Guzman could be two relievers in 2 years. Who knows. That's the point though - who knows. It is difficult to pass judgment on trades until these guys play a year or three. We all thought Maybin and Andrew Miller were cool, and then the reality Burke Badenhop was the best part of the deal for the Marlins happened. No one though Realmuto would be a top 5 catcher in baseball. Who knows?

 

Third, I think you may be over-evaluating Ozuna's value. He is fantastic don't get me wrong, but teams are smarter now than even 3-4 years ago. Seeing trades like the White Sox with Sale and Eaton may be the outliers. Teams understand the value of their younger players versus free agency where Tyler Chatwood gets 3/$38 (from a "smart" club at that). I think it's fair to generally expect lower returns for good talents with only a year or two of control. The Cole and McCutchen trades weren't exactly gold mines and those are good comparables for Ozuna. We'll see what happens, but I have a hard time criticizing them here. If Yelich stupidly gets traded, I think that will be a better barometer of debate on what are they doing.

 

Fourth, I do not think the Marlins have a great core of young talent to build around. Let's be clear there. I think they have two great guys to build around (Yelich, Realmuto). From there it is a HUGE question mark. However, they have some guys that could turn into solid starting players even if not stars. My point is the Marlins have a pretty interesting MLB bullpen and 15-18 prospects in the minor league pool now and while it may be clearly missing the Fernandez, Stanton, and Yelich level prospects, that doesn't mean there isn't 2-3 SP, 2-4 position players (even if completely average unspectacular starters or some bench guys), and a full bullpen of club controlled options that will be on the team by summer 2019 (which doesn't include Guzman, Rogers, and Garret who all likely have an ETA of 2020-21). That could develop into a pretty good team with free agency and a breakout fueling an emerging contender in 3 years. We don't know.

 

Fifth, I disagree completely that a variety of the guys the Marlins have left to trade (ignoring Yelich/Realmuto), don't have value. Chatwood just got 3/$38. In a best case scenario for him, Straily is going to make 3/$20 in arbitration. I think it is pretty reasonable to think he's going to bring in some Niedert/Sierra level guys where a contending team will want to allocate that $18+ million elsewhere versus trading a guy or two who is not considered a polished/elite prospect, yet has real value. Same with Bour who is going to look pretty attractive for $3 million next year when JD and Hosmer sign for a ton. Barraclough could be the top reliever on the market come June/July, ignoring 3.5 years of control left. Sure some of the guys might not bring more than a C+ RP prospect who may never make it, but it's building depth and they could get some players out of this core. I think it will be interesting to see what they get for Straily, Bour, Castro, Barraclough, Prado, Ziegler, Tazawa, Dietrich, Urena, Conley, and Rojas, who I hope all get moved by July 31. Those returns could change some things. Who knows!

 

My point is, give them the season. This has been rocky as hell, but let's see what they do. Maybe Denbo is on to something with Alcantara and Guzman. If all the prospects suck and they are forced to trade Yelich and Realmuto to get more impact guys to match with future draft classes to hopefully be good in 2023, get the pitchforks and fire away.

 

 

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I said one or two. Two would have been if someone really overpaid, which wasn't likely I admit. I think they should have been able to get a top 30 prospect for Ozuna at least.

 

Ok, that's reasonable.  I think they could have too, but i think they really preferred the quantity over quality approach thus far given the nature of how bad our farm system was to start.  I think that's a pretty common theme going back to the trade deadline and the Phelps, Dee Gordon, and now Ozuna trade.  Obviously i have no inside knowledge, but it looks like they think the bigger problem was the complete lack of depth in the system even more so than the lack of real top prospects.  From the outside it looks like they think they can acquire star prospects in the JT and Yelich deals if they happen and also through future really high draft picks and in increased attention to the IFA market (see the Cuban guy we're apparently after.)

 

I think they also probably could have gotten Flaherty but im assuming given his little bit lower ceiling than Alcantara and the fact that we've gotten quite a few low ceiling high floor SP's recently that we took a risk on Alcantara.  Especially given that scouting reports dont seem to have too YUGE of a difference between the two anyways. 

 

 

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Also, I know he wasnt on these particular lists, but Neidert is likely near that top 100 list too.  He was on BA's top 100 at I believe mid season for whatever the hell that is worth.  He's someone that doesnt get talked about enough and i think he has some real potential as well.  His numbers since he got drafted are pretty damn good.

 

 

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They have experienced significant criticism here and elsewhere for not landing any top 100 prospects, so the fact they got 2 is very notable. 

 

Secondly, sure Alcantara and Guzman could be two relievers in 2 years. Who knows. That's the point though - who knows. It is difficult to pass judgment on trades until these guys play a year or three. We all thought Maybin and Andrew Miller were cool, and then the reality Burke Badenhop was the best part of the deal for the Marlins happened. No one though Realmuto would be a top 5 catcher in baseball. Who knows?

 

Third, I think you may be over-evaluating Ozuna's value. He is fantastic don't get me wrong, but teams are smarter now than even 3-4 years ago. Seeing trades like the White Sox with Sale and Eaton may be the outliers. Teams understand the value of their younger players versus free agency where Tyler Chatwood gets 3/$38 (from a "smart" club at that). I think it's fair to generally expect lower returns for good talents with only a year or two of control. The Cole and McCutchen trades weren't exactly gold mines and those are good comparables for Ozuna. We'll see what happens, but I have a hard time criticizing them here. If Yelich stupidly gets traded, I think that will be a better barometer of debate on what are they doing.

 

Fourth, I do not think the Marlins have a great core of young talent to build around. Let's be clear there. I think they have two great guys to build around (Yelich, Realmuto). From there it is a HUGE question mark. However, they have some guys that could turn into solid starting players even if not stars. My point is the Marlins have a pretty interesting MLB bullpen and 15-18 prospects in the minor league pool now and while it may be clearly missing the Fernandez, Stanton, and Yelich level prospects, that doesn't mean there isn't 2-3 SP, 2-4 position players (even if completely average unspectacular starters or some bench guys), and a full bullpen of club controlled options that will be on the team by summer 2019 (which doesn't include Guzman, Rogers, and Garret who all likely have an ETA of 2020-21). That could develop into a pretty good team with free agency and a breakout fueling an emerging contender in 3 years. We don't know.

 

Fifth, I disagree completely that a variety of the guys the Marlins have left to trade (ignoring Yelich/Realmuto), don't have value. Chatwood just got 3/$38. In a best case scenario for him, Straily is going to make 3/$20 in arbitration. I think it is pretty reasonable to think he's going to bring in some Niedert/Sierra level guys where a contending team will want to allocate that $18+ million elsewhere versus trading a guy or two who is not considered a polished/elite prospect, yet has real value. Same with Bour who is going to look pretty attractive for $3 million next year when JD and Hosmer sign for a ton. Barraclough could be the top reliever on the market come June/July, ignoring 3.5 years of control left. Sure some of the guys might not bring more than a C+ RP prospect who may never make it, but it's building depth and they could get some players out of this core. I think it will be interesting to see what they get for Straily, Bour, Castro, Barraclough, Prado, Ziegler, Tazawa, Dietrich, Urena, Conley, and Rojas, who I hope all get moved by July 31. Those returns could change some things. Who knows!

 

My point is, give them the season. This has been rocky as hell, but let's see what they do. Maybe Denbo is on to something with Alcantara and Guzman. If all the prospects suck and they are forced to trade Yelich and Realmuto to get more impact guys to match with future draft classes to hopefully be good in 2023, get the pitchforks and fire away.

 

I agree mostly.  I think what the plan appears to be at this point is to just continue moving guys and adding depth to the system and then reevaluating where we are a year from now.  I could see Alcantara figuring out his control and becoming what his potential is or I could see him spending the entire year in the minors.  

 

Guzman to me is the real wild card and I think will end up being the best guy we've gotten so far.  Im obviously a homer, but I think he is the one guy we've gotten so far that i could see being top 50 in these lists by mid season.

 

The biggest thing is to just keep churning the roster until the deadline and hope you find some gems.  Look at the cubs deal for Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks, for example.  Not throw ins but they were not major pieces by any stretch of the imagination, and they were 2 cy young winners.  Just keep churning the roster and finding pieces.

 

 

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