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2018 Winter Meetings

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Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought this was more of a return on investment figure, not willingness to spend. Like, you signed a guy to a long term deal and at the end of it it turns out you spent ~$8 mil per win or whatever. And the number being so high reflects all of the bad Pujols type contracts that have been given out over the years. That doesn't mean teams want to spend that much for a win. Right now teams want to spend less than $5 mil per year for guys like Bour and Cron, so the idea that Santana @ $20 mil is reasonable makes no sense.

 

It is, its an average of what free agency costs as teams win/lose on acquisitions. Something like Bour and Cron (and Morrison and Dietrich) is based on scarcity. They are probably going to be worth more, but there are a lot of them out there so it depresses the whole market.  It's not perfect, but we have to value these guys somehow. Just like FG does with prospects, it's just based on averages (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/). The second a guy comes up and drops a 4 WAR year (Nimmo), things can change quickly as to how much he is valued. He's on paper worth more than most prospects at this point.

 

I don't think surplus value is the gospel, but it gets you into a ballpark and then the eye of the beholder can take over.

 

 

You want to just mail me my beer since I’m out of Florida if this goes down. How this work?

 

I don't live in Florida either, so yeah I guess I'll be mailing them to everyone if it goes down.

 

 

Knew it.... there will be no Realmuto deal. 

 

Don't worry, still have the Manager Meeting, President of baseball operation Meeting, CEO Meeting, COO Meeting…

 

 

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