December 13, 20187 yr Steamer projects a 2019 WAR of 2.5 for Carlos Santana, who has two years and $35 million remaining on his contract. This year 2.5 fWAR was valued at about $20 million so Santana's contract is at least neutral even if Santana drops to 2.0 WAR in his second year. Steamer projects a 2019 WAR of 1.3 for Martin Prado, who has one year and $15 million remaining on his contract. This year 1.3 fWAR was valued at about $10.7 million so Prado's contract could well have negative value. Therefore, the Marlins would need to up the ante to even the trade. Steamer projects ~1 fWAR for Justin Bour in 2019 and he just got 1 yr/$2.5 mil on the open market so I don't think those $/fWAR estimates you're using are too useful.
December 13, 20187 yr Steamer projects ~1 fWAR for Justin Bour in 2019 and he just got 1 yr/$2.5 mil on the open market so I don't think those $/fWAR estimates you're using are too useful. When someone evaluates a trade proposal, he or she make a projection -- explicitly or implicitly -- on how each player will perform. I welcome alternative means of projecting value.
December 13, 20187 yr Nah brah Mish, let’s get this ‘ish done so we can focus on holes to fill before all the free agents we want are gone.
December 13, 20187 yr If Realmuto gets traded to the Braves I'll buy every single active person in this thread a beer. And then I'll buy a Realmuto Braves jersey. for myself. Screen cap this post if you want, idc
December 13, 20187 yr If Realmuto gets traded to the Braves I'll buy every single active person in this thread a beer. And then I'll buy a Realmuto Braves jersey. for myself. Screen cap this post if you want, idc You want to just mail me my beer since I’m out of Florida if this goes down. How this work?
December 13, 20187 yr When someone evaluates a trade proposal, he or she make a projection -- explicitly or implicitly -- on how each player will perform. I welcome alternative means of projecting value. You're missing the fact that the Marlins payroll for this upcoming season isn't an issue. We don't have to dump Prado's contract. Also, Prado's contract only has one season left on it. Again, no need to dump his contact. Especially if it's going to cost us Brinson. Brinson had a miserable rookie year but he was a highly rated prospect just two season's ago and he was the center piece of the Yelich trade. No way they give up on him that quickly.
December 13, 20187 yr Steamer projects a 2019 WAR of 2.5 for Carlos Santana, who has two years and $35 million remaining on his contract. This year 2.5 fWAR was valued at about $20 million so Santana's contract is at least neutral even if Santana drops to 2.0 WAR in his second year. Steamer projects a 2019 WAR of 1.3 for Martin Prado, who has one year and $15 million remaining on his contract. This year 1.3 fWAR was valued at about $10.7 million so Prado's contract could well have negative value. Therefore, the Marlins would need to up the ante to even the trade. I think the analysis is right here, but Prado can't be trusted to produce that amount. He is -$15 and a pure loss. It's why they should just keep him until the deadline. If he can stay healthy for 3 months, they can turn him into some arm like Mills or Eveld, even if they eat all/most of his payroll. Ultimately, it's stupid to trade for Santana.
December 13, 20187 yr I don't think relying on "Streamer" as fact is a smart way to do things. It is just a projection and has been wrong in the past. It can be used as a tool but when fans point to it as the one and only reason to do something, that is a little wrong.
December 13, 20187 yr He was traded last season, you missed it? Didn't many Marlins fans still think he's a Marlins after traded ?
December 13, 20187 yr Didn't many Marlins fans still think he's a Marlins after traded ? None that I know of.
December 13, 20187 yr 22 minutes ago, taiwanmarlin said: [MEDIA=twitter]1073139934024744962[/MEDIA] Lol
December 13, 20187 yr Author Didn't many Marlins fans still think he's a Marlins after traded ? What?
December 13, 20187 yr I don't think relying on "Streamer" as fact is a smart way to do things. It is just a projection and has been wrong in the past. It can be used as a tool but when fans point to it as the one and only reason to do something, that is a little wrong. It's not really the projection that I have an issue with. It's the 1 win = $9-$10 mil that gets used a lot (not just in this thread's example). I don't think was ever intended to be used as a going rate for WAR for the type of analysis being used here. Like the idea that Santana's deal is somehow neutral when a guy like Schoop (similar projected WAR) just got $7.5 mil on the open market seems off.
December 13, 20187 yr I don't think relying on "Streamer" as fact is a smart way to do things. It is just a projection and has been wrong in the past. It can be used as a tool but when fans point to it as the one and only reason to do something, that is a little wrong. Sure. I think you can question the Steamer numbers, but the analysis that guy did is right which is more important. A win in free agency is roughly +/- $8 million, and you can extrapolate prospect value (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/) to figure out a baseline. That all makes sense.
December 13, 20187 yr A win in free agency is roughly +/- $8 million Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought this was more of a return on investment figure, not willingness to spend. Like, you signed a guy to a long term deal and at the end of it it turns out you spent ~$8 mil per win or whatever. And the number being so high reflects all of the bad Pujols type contracts that have been given out over the years. That doesn't mean teams want to spend that much for a win. Right now teams want to spend less than $5 mil per year for guys like Bour and Cron, so the idea that Santana @ $20 mil is reasonable makes no sense.
December 13, 20187 yr Author Another boring winter meetings coming to a close. I said this last week... the media loves to hype up the winter meetings as the place where everything is gonna go down but year after year it's more of the same. Yes things develop and a lot of future deals come out of the discussions from this week but nothing groundbreaking really happens anymore. The week is no longer any bigger than any other offseason week. It definitely doesn't deserve all the hype it gets in the days leading up to it anymore.
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