December 20, 200322 yr *** SEE NEW NUMBERS ON PAGE 2 - NEW POST *** It's been my contention for quite some time that the Florida Marlins 2004 payroll was in the range of $56-58 million after trading Lee, Enc, Redman, etc. and Pudge departing. Needless to say there has been a significant amount of disagreement on this with some contending payroll was in fact $10-12 million lower. I've held off until now to publish my estimated payroll numbers but I decided this afternoon to do so. Enough players have signed or been acquired so that all the roster spots are accounted for. With only a few players left to be signed or offered arbitration, the time seems right. My payroll estimate is approximately $57.26 million. The numbers presented below are in millions (therefore 2.50 is $2,500,000 and .40 is $400,000 as examples), and while an Alex Gonzalez may make $100,000 more or less, or a Brad Penny the same, at this point this should be pretty close. Hopefully this will put to rest the notion that there is $10 million more to be spent on acquiring a Vlad or similar superstar. In light of what's happening with the stadium plans I thought this was the right time to dispel that notion. For the record I'm not against signing a superstar, I just don't believe we have the funds to do so. I have acrrued 1/3 of Luis Castillo's signing bonus in this years payroll figure as I believe that is appropriate. I do have one bench player at $1.50 million believing that the FO will try to sign at least one free agent bat after Sunday. I also have raises/bonuses built in for Cabrera and Willis (for different reasons in each case) and collectively those dollars equal approximately $1.25 million over what the minimum salary is under baseball's Basic Agreement. Without those dollars payroll would still be in excess of $56 million. Everything else is pretty much set. 2004 FLORIDA MARLINS PAYROLL Total Payroll $57.26 Million DEBT $11.00 Pudge and Hamptpn 1b Choi 0.45 2b Castillo 5.33 (under contract - includes "signing bonus" accrual over contract period) ss Gonzalez 2.75 (estimated $1.05 mil raise) 3b Lowell 8.00 (under contract) lf Cabrera 1.00 (only due $375k, gets raise) cf Pierre 2.00 (under contract) rf Conine 3.00 (under contract) c Castro 0.40 sp Beckett 2.30 sp Penny 3.50 sp Pavano 2.75 (estimated 2yrs/$5.5 mil) sp Willis 1.00 (only due $375k, gets raise) sp Burnett 2.50 (starts season on the disabled list for roster purposes) bp Neu 0.38 bp Phelps 0.50 bp Chad Fox 1.20 bp **Closer** 3.50 bp Naninni 0.40 bp Bump 0.40 bp Tejera 0.43 (one pitcher must be dropped if/when AJ returns to the active list) bp Spooneybarger 0.43 (starts season on the disabled list for roster purposes) bch Mordecai 0.60 bch Redmond 0.84 bch Banks 0.40 bch Bench (1) 1.50 bch Bench (2) 0.40 bch Bench (3) 0.30 Running Total 57.26 56.01
December 20, 200322 yr Why the hell do you put Cabs in left and Conine in right? Can we stop making threads on this, its annoying...
December 20, 200322 yr Author Why the hell do you put Cabs in left and Conine in right? Can we stop making threads on this, its annoying... typo
December 20, 200322 yr Why the hell do you put Cabs in left and Conine in right? Can we stop making threads on this, its annoying... typo Alright...
December 20, 200322 yr Why the hell do you put Cabs in left and Conine in right? Can we stop making threads on this, its annoying... someones over- reacting anyways, Marlins2003, it sounds good, but do you think that Willis and Cabrera will get Bonuses up to 1mill. I can see maybe 500k but 1 million?
December 20, 200322 yr Why the hell do you put Cabs in left and Conine in right? Can we stop making threads on this, its annoying... someones over- reacting anyways, Marlins2003, it sounds good, but do you think that Willis and Cabrera will get Bonuses up to 1mill. I can see maybe 500k but 1 million? Neither Willis or Cabrera will touch even $500,000 this season.
December 20, 200322 yr Author Why the hell do you put Cabs in left and Conine in right? Can we stop making threads on this, its annoying... someones over- reacting anyways, Marlins2003, it sounds good, but do you think that Willis and Cabrera will get Bonuses up to 1mill. I can see maybe 500k but 1 million? In the case of Willis I believe we can't go through another season of him do a signing photo opportunity kind of thing a couple of times a week like last summer. he clearly is doing it for the money and I believe the Marlins will act in some way to curtail alot of it. In Cabs case I believe the Marlins will attempt to sign him longterm so that he is affordable as he gets closer to the arbitration, which admittedly is years away, but nonetheless I expect some recognition of his worth to the team will translate into a higher salary than the MLB minimum. Even if I'm wrong and neither receives any additional compensation, the 2004 payroll should be north of $56 million.
December 20, 200322 yr Why the hell do you put Cabs in left and Conine in right? Can we stop making threads on this, its annoying... someones over- reacting anyways, Marlins2003, it sounds good, but do you think that Willis and Cabrera will get Bonuses up to 1mill. I can see maybe 500k but 1 million? Neither Willis or Cabrera will touch even $500,000 this season. agreed. it might be the "nice" thing to do, but the Marlins know that being nice to them now will do them little good when they're free agents in a few years. it's all business......
December 20, 200322 yr Author Why the hell do you put Cabs in left and Conine in right? Can we stop making threads on this, its annoying... someones over- reacting anyways, Marlins2003, it sounds good, but do you think that Willis and Cabrera will get Bonuses up to 1mill. I can see maybe 500k but 1 million? Neither Willis or Cabrera will touch even $500,000 this season. agreed. it might be the "nice" thing to do, but the Marlins know that being nice to them now will do them little good when they're free agents in a few years. it's all business...... It's not a matter of "nice", it makes business sense(at least to me to get these two guys financially stabile in their lives), but please note I pointed all this out in my preface. The point is payroll is going to be in the mid-fifties not mid-forties as some have suggested.
December 20, 200322 yr Author What'd Cabrera make last year, something like 156,000? that's a proration of the MLB Basic Agreement of $300,000 minimum based on length of service. this year he will be paid for a full year.
December 20, 200322 yr a number of points: neither willis nor cabrera will make anywhere close to 1 million. $400,000 sounds more accurate. also, castillo will make $4 million in 2004 (not 5.33 mil). his signing bonus can be paid at any point, and you can bet it will be deferred as long as possible. mike lowell will be paid $6.5 million in 2004 (not 8 mil). i realize you averaged the values of their contracts, but it's wholly inaccurate to say our "2004 Marlins Payroll" is at $56 million currently. we don't know if castillo and lowell will remain with the team for subsequent years in their contracts. we also don't know if we will have a stadium in place to keep mike lowell's contract at the numbers they are currently at. as of right now, our total is at about $50 million.
December 20, 200322 yr Author a number of points: neither willis nor cabrera will make anywhere close to 1 million.? $400,000 sounds more accurate. also, castillo will make $4 million in 2004 (not 5.33 mil).? his signing bonus can be paid at any point, and you can bet it will be deferred as long as possible. mike lowell will be paid $6.5 million in 2004 (not 8 mil). i realize you averaged the values of their contracts, but it's wholly inaccurate to say our "2004 Marlins Payroll" is at $56 million currently.? we don't know if castillo and lowell will remain with the team for subsequent years in their contracts.? we also don't know if we will have a stadium in place to keep mike lowell's contract at the numbers they are currently at. as of right now, our total is at about $50 million. I titled this "My 2004 Marlins Payroll Estimates". I did that for a reason, I don't say I am 100% correct. In the case of Lowell and Castillo I believe MLB demands of the Marlins (because of their loan agreement that facilitated Loria acquiring the franchise) that they accrue for all future payments on their annual balance sheets during the length of the loan. Were it not for that I would agree with you and would have presented the numbers differently. I'm not going to belabor the points about Cabs and Willis. I will admit this is something the FO "may" do, I have no concrete evidence they "will", only time will tell. I could 100% wrong about this.
December 20, 200322 yr There's a lot of speculation in there. I believe Ramp's estimates are too low and I think yours are too high I believe the actual payroll will be somewhere in between the two.
December 20, 200322 yr Nice work. I'd put it at around 55 million or so but you can very well be on the ball with this. I was lowballing us at around 47-50 mil before seeing your breakdown. Thanks for posting this.
December 20, 200322 yr Author I thought Choi was only making 300K next year. He's a second year player. That fact that he was on the DL for much of the year and the bench for the last couple of months doesn't mean his first year of service didn't count. No different that AJ's year of service counts in his eligibility.
December 20, 200322 yr Author Thanks Admin and DTrizzle. It's not meant to be the final or perfect. Maybe Pavano gets more or less, same with Penny. Maybe AJ agrees to $2 mill instead of $2.5, and clearly theres a $1.2 in there for bonuses to Cabs and Willis I knew would be challenged. Frankly it's hard for me to believe this is the bullpen we're going to start the season with and I have a feeling that some of these guys will be replaced with more high priced (and hopefully better) pitching. And we may not sign another bat off the bench for $1.5, and that would be $1.1 million. There's going to be give and take. In the end something north of $55 million looks where we'll wind up.
December 20, 200322 yr In the case of Lowell and Castillo I believe MLB demands of the Marlins (because of their loan agreement that facilitated Loria acquiring the franchise) that they accrue for all future payments on their annual balance sheets during the length of the loan. Were it not for that I would agree with you and would have presented the numbers differently. i'm thinking of "marlins' expected 2004 payroll" more in the sense of "marlins' expected player contribution in 2004" so i guess that's why i don't exactly agree with the total of $56 million. pudge's 2003 salary deferrals could have been lumped under "2003 payroll" and increased its value by $7 million, but a 2004 payment was also accounted for in your 2004 payroll above, which is why i don't think it would be appropriate to list any figures other than 2004 payments. i'm looking at loria's 2004 payroll contribution alone, so i prefer the figure of $50 million right now. it annoys me because i think he should be spending more on payroll, but we still have a couple months before spring training, so nothing is set in stone yet.
December 20, 200322 yr I think Pavano gets three million no more maybe less. Penny about the same... I think Willis, Cabs, and Choi are all supposed to get small raises to like 400,000 or something around that.
December 20, 200322 yr Author In the case of Lowell and Castillo I believe MLB demands of the Marlins (because of their loan agreement that facilitated Loria acquiring the franchise) that they accrue for all future payments on their annual balance sheets during the length of the loan. Were it not for that I would agree with you and would have presented the numbers differently. i'm thinking of "marlins' expected 2004 payroll" more in the sense of "marlins' expected player contribution in 2004" so i guess that's why i don't exactly agree with the total of $56 million. pudge's 2003 salary deferrals could have been lumped under "2003 payroll" and increased its value by $7 million, but a 2004 payment was also accounted for in your 2004 payroll above, which is why i don't think it would be appropriate to list any figures other than 2004 payments. i'm looking at loria's 2004 payroll contribution alone, so i prefer the figure of $50 million right now. it annoys me because i think he should be spending more on payroll, but we still have a couple months before spring training, so nothing is set in stone yet. Actually Pudge's 2003 salary was listed as some number like $9.35 million (I don't remember the exact number) which included a present value discount because of the deferrals. The Marlins FO have said several times over the past couple of months that the payments to Hampton and Pudge due in 2004 were to be considered part of their payroll number for the upcoming season. they actually paid him $3 million in 2003, will pay him $3 million in 2004 and $2,000,000 in years 2005 and 2006. (edited) But you and I don't have a problem, we're in the same range I believe.
December 20, 200322 yr Author It's the stadium deal. Samson said that he would have to sell 72,000 seats per game for every game next season for the team to break-even.
December 20, 200322 yr It's the stadium deal. Samson said that he would have to sell 72,000 seats per game for every game next season for the team to break-even. Well that sucks since our current stadium ony fills 68,000 to 70,000... Another reason why the Marlins need to get out of PPS.
December 20, 200322 yr It's the stadium deal. Samson said that he would have to sell 72,000 seats per game for every game next season for the team to break-even. Well that sucks since our current stadium ony fills 68,000 to 70,000... Another reason why the Marlins need to get out of PPS. that nuber is probably closer to 65,000 for baseball- but forget that- i think this is only further argument that we need a new stadium, because we have to get money from concessions and parking, or else we'll never break even, EVER
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