February 6, 20206 yr Baseball Prospectus, which has one of the best projection systems, is starting to tease their latest projections. They dropped this nugget in the bottom of their Top 10 Pitchers article: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/56915/pecota-2020-10-pitchers-on-the-rise/ It incorrectly says Zac Gallen (Praise Be) is worse than Caleb Smith, but otherwise, y'all, this is very exciting!
February 6, 20206 yr Being that it is behind a paywall, do they mention Edward Cabrera at all? He shouldn't be too far off. Mainly asking because there is that possibility that Cabrera gets the call-up first, I would think. Still trying to build up Sixto's innings, aren't they? I also agree that Smith may not be better than Gallen, but I believe Gallen outperformed his peripherals last season by a bit. Which other pitchers made it up to AA last season, by the way? Who else could be coming up soon?
February 6, 20206 yr Author Being that it is behind a paywall, do they mention Edward Cabrera at all? He shouldn't be too far off. The image above is the extent to which they reference the Marlins.
February 6, 20206 yr The image above is the extent to which they reference the Marlins. Alright then. Thanks for sharing with us, friend ❤
February 6, 20206 yr Wonder where Elieser Hernandez ranks on this? He should be on there over Ureña. Yes I'm curious about this too.
February 6, 20206 yr Author Yes I'm curious about this too. I think their big update rolls out on Monday, but the latest numbers from yesterday's PECOTA data had Elieser at negative WARP (BPro's WAR) through 70 IP. He had an incredible DRC- (their pitching stat) in AAA and a solid DRC- in the majors last year, so I would think he's in line for a decent bump.
February 7, 20206 yr I wish I knew what all these metrics, stats, and abbreviations meant. I'm very uneducated in the next gen statistics and metrics.
February 7, 20206 yr I wish I knew what all these metrics, stats, and abbreviations meant. I'm very uneducated in the next gen statistics and metrics. Welcome to my world.
February 7, 20206 yr I wish I knew what all these metrics, stats, and abbreviations meant. I'm very uneducated in the next gen statistics and metrics. Yeah, I don't know those stuff because I don't want to make baseball so complicated.
February 7, 20206 yr Have you attempted to understand them, though, friend? Why bother. You weirdos will just invent ten new ones next year anyway.
February 7, 20206 yr Why bother. You weirdos will just invent ten new ones next year anyway. Just get like ... five of them understood at a basic level.
February 7, 20206 yr Author Yeah, I don't know those stuff because I don't want to make baseball so complicated. Lol! Baseball is already complicated! I had to pick a few mop up innings for my rec team a few months back, and in between innings, the umpire came up to me and quietly said, "You are balking about five times per pitch." ? That said, I totally get not having interest in the stats side of baseball. I feel the same way about the stock market. Lots of numbers and different ways to analyze things. I'm content just letting a mutual fund manage my retirement, but I totally understand why some folks very much get into the projections and analysis behind truly understanding the market.
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