Out of the Past

I would bet $100 that if we don't have a new stadium by 2015 in 2015 we'll still be playing home games at Dolphin Stadium.

I don't know why people keep saying that if Mitre had options left he'd be in the minors. Remember, the Marlins think high enough of him that they slotted him as our #2 starter at the beginning of last season, before he got hurt!!! Come on, do you really think anyone in the organization considered Mitre a #2 caliber MLB starter in April '06? He's a borderline #5 starter. It looks like now he'll get a few starts to show what he can do. I would be pleasantly surprised if he averages 6 innings per start with an ERA in the mid 4's.

I'm surprised by the move to send Sanchez down but I understand it and wouldn't argue against it. He really has pitched MUCH worse than his 2-1 and 4.80 ERA would indicate. He has been flat out horrible getting in and out of trouble in what it seems like just about every inning building-up up ridiculous pitch counts which ends up taxing the bullpen. He needs to find his lost velocity and lost command.

Prinmemito.. I could care less if you want fool yourself by believing the fantasy put forth by that writer and believe that we're scoring a lot of runs because of a reduction in small ball tactics.

The author is right that we don't play a lot of small ball this year compared to last year. Stoles bases (and attempts are down), bunts are about the same (on pace for 72 compared to '78 in '06) and early inning bunts (innings 1 - 6) are up (on pace for 60 compared to 44 in '06). I hate small ball but the reason we're first in runs score is not because Fredi has reduced the use of small ball as the writer alleges. The writer is full of crap.

The answer as to why we're first in runs scored is a simple one... we're first in runs scored because we're first in OPS. In '06 we were 8th in runs scored and we were 8th in OPS. In '05 we were 8th in runs scored and we were 8th in OPS. In '04 we were 11th in runs scored and we were 11 th in OPS. The correlation between OPS and runs scored is extremely high and a national writer should know that. The article is more of a hit piece on Girardi (and off-base at that) than anything else.

Special Session from June 5-15. I would expect that it could appear there. I believe that in a special session they can only deal with the issue for which the session was called and if that's the case then they will not be allowed to deal with a baseball stadium during a property tax special session.

PS..if the pitchers are pitching to CENTER FIELD (last I checked, where Amezaga is) then it affects the number greatly since it increases the number of chances. It would increase his number of chances but it wouldn't necessarily increase his percentage. Please explain how an increased number of chances necessarily increases the percentage of the balls he fields? That's like saying that an increased number of ABs increases a guy's batting average. But all fly balls are not equal. There are a disproportionate amount of "catchable" balls compared to uncatchable balls, or tough play balls. If a pitcher is pitching to centerfield, or position X, that position gets an increased number of chances. If you increase the number of chances (to simplify, let's say over the course of a season the increase is from 350 to 400...not an uncommon amount of put-outs for an outfielder) then you lessen the impact of not made plays. If player X has 350 chances and makes 340 of them, that's a .971 zone rating. If player Y has 400 chances he can make 388 and still have a matching zone rating...meaning he allowed more balls hit to him to be put in play, yet still has a very high zone rating. Percentage wise are they identical, sure, but looking at it from a discerning point of view, you can see how it allows for an inflated rating while still allowing fans to say "you know, if _____ were out there, he'd have gotten to it." Whenever there is an activity with a high success rate, more chances means higher skewed percentages, so the batting average analogy is a faulty comparison. I think a greater sample size would reduce the skewing but wahtever. We just have to agree to disagree. I apologize for the clueless remark.

PS..if the pitchers are pitching to CENTER FIELD (last I checked, where Amezaga is) then it affects the number greatly since it increases the number of chances. It would increase his number of chances but it wouldn't necessarily increase his percentage. Please explain how an increased number of chances necessarily increases the percentage of the balls he fields? That's like saying that an increased number of ABs increases a guy's batting average.

Zone rating is not the best stat to determine defensive ability. In fact, no defensive metrics are perfect, and while some are better than others none are truly heads and tails above the rest. I personally prefer the RAA metric that baseball prospectus uses, since it takes several factors into the defensive worth of a particular player. And it, in and of itself, is far from perfect. And according to it, Amezaga is below average so far this year in CF, not horrible but not close to good either. Can you post the formula for this RAA stat?

This is for the Fredo bashers... Fredo ranks 3rd in Zone Rating out of 31 CFs with at least 100 innings played. That's because our pitchers are pitching to center-field. I'll take it you don't know what zone rating means, because that has little true statistical value when determining true defensive ability. It's simply balls in play to an arbitrarily determined defensive "zone" that become outs. It's like a slightly better version of fielding percentage, which we know is just a silly stat to measure real defensive ability. With your first comment it's obvious you're completely clueless as to what Zone Rating really means and you're probably confusing it with Range Factor. The fact that our pitchers are pitching to center-field (assuming that that's accurate) would not impact his Zone Rating %. It would impact his Range Factor which is a completely meaningless stat. Zone Rating has limitations but it's the best defensive stat out there. If you think it's a bad thing that Fredo has the 3rd best Zone Rating then that's fine with me. ==== Zone rating. The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.

This is for the Fredo bashers... Fredo ranks 3rd in Zone Rating out of 31 CFs with at least 100 innings played.

You said the elbow thing a few times in the game thread. I'm assuming this is something you've heard or is it a feeling? nothing concrete though If they've been talking about a possible elbow problem why the hell was he pitching? Why wouldn't they check him out if there are these concerns flyign around? His command is MIA and his fastball is slower than last year's. it's what some people believe... but there is no evidence of it as of this posting If these people are in the organization then it's ridiculous for him to continue pitching without getting the elbow checked-out. Hie velocity is down, he can't locate his breaking ball, and his stuff has less bite to it. There hasn't been too noticeable a drop in his velocity, but then again he never was a fireballer - or at least since his callup to the Marlins. He has left a number of breaking balls hanging, I'll give you that. And his control in general has left something to be desired. He's been throwing much more in the high 80s than in the low to mid 90s. Anyway, we'll never know unless he does go in the DL in the near future It is a big leap to say he is injured because there is a 1 mph drop in the speed of his average fastball so far this season to last, he is having control problems and there is a slightly less movement in his pitches so far. Do you think the Marlins would keep throwing out a guy as intregal to our staff as Anibal, one that had a HUGE workload increase last season, if he were injured? I would say it's about a 3 or 4 mph drop. Last year he was usually 91-93 sometimes 94. This year it's usually high 80s.

You said the elbow thing a few times in the game thread. I'm assuming this is something you've heard or is it a feeling? nothing concrete though If they've been talking about a possible elbow problem why the hell was he pitching? Why wouldn't they check him out if there are these concerns flyign around? His command is MIA and his fastball is slower than last year's.

Uggla's OPS is not that bad for a 2B and he'll be given the whole year because of what he did last year and because there's no one better to repalce him. Hermida could potentially be a very good leadoff hitter with the way he works the count. Imagine the RBI opportunities for Miguel if things click for Hermida and Hermida hitting leadoff Hanley hitting 2nd.

Ohhhh...maybe just the fact that hardly anyone on the boards has been talking about our lack of quality starting pitching, and how that has been the main reason why we had a mediocre April. It seems like most threads debating the cause of our losing games has been centered around the closer, the injuries of De Aza and Hermida, the injuries of our pitchers....(being JJ, Nolasco, Mitre), mis-management by Fredi, baserunning mistakes, not catching balls at home plate, errant throws, etc. So, forgive me if I'm beating a dead horse. But, I didn't see any other threads accrediting our losses to a lack of quality starting pitching. Did I miss them? I agree with you in that the starting pitching has been terrible however those who blame the poor starting pitching on injuries are living in la la land. Our regular starters have made all but abotu 5 of our starts. Go down the league and you'll find that 5 starts from the non-regular starters is not out of the ordinary.

Last year we were told about 8564 times by Tommy and Rich how great the ratings were and at the end of the season Barry Jackson had an article saying the ratings were in the high 2s and that they had plummeted about 50% from '05 season. I suppose how "great" the ratings are depends on what each of us thinks the word "great" means.

The fact is very few economists believe stadiums provide an economic boosts. THis is such a ridiculous debate.

I think you're putting to much weight on the W/L record. DTrain has pitched like crap and is 5-1. A starter who stays healthy and makes every starts is a very valuable asset but Zito is much more than that. In addition to his 3.86 ERA since the CY season I would also add he was 3rd in OPS allowed in '03 and 2nd in OPS allowed in '05 (in the AL). An average pitcher wouldn't do that.

I think anyone who is disregarding reason when keeping Willis should look at Barry Zito. Now, I'm not saying the two are identical, but Zito's numbers were just average after his spectacular Cy Young season. Dontrelle seems headed down the same path, just without the award. I love Dontrelle to death. He's fun to watch, he's exciting, but I've long said he's not an ace, and his statistics since 2006 have done nothing to categorically disprove that. And if some team is willing to trade us an ace bounty for him, it'd be tough to not take it (unless, of course, it's to help a division rival like New York or Philadelphia). In his four seasons after the CY he averaged 223 innings with a 3.86 ERA in the AL. Those are very good numbers. Do you really think those are average numbers?

Yes because Ive always heard the excuse that the Marlins do well with TV and radio ratings, meaning people just hate Joe Robbie... Im sure thats been used in debates numerous times... Marlins ratings on TV & Radio usually beat the Heat, Panthers, or Hurricanes head-to-head. The Heat and Marlins just this past month have been about even, even though the Heat were playoff-bound. The Marlins TV ratings are poor compared to other MLB teams. I don't know thwe radio ratings compare.

Maybe the Elias can go research when was the last time a team was first in hitting and last in pitching in a month of the season. That's where we are right now.

What about events like the all-star game, the post-season, and the World Baseball Classic? Wouldn't those generate income that wouldn't exist if the Marlins were in San Antonio? Plus, I think you're dead wrong about spending the money elsewhere. Many of the people that go to a baseball game during the week don't go out to the movies during the week. Your argument makes sense for the weekend crowd, but not the weekday crowd. And even in your own example you spent more at the baseball game. I know about myself: I spend a lot more money on weekends the Marlins are in town than when they're not. I just don't spend that kind of money on other things. And I know a lot of people like that. Most economists say you're the one that's dead wrong but we've been through this before. You don't understand the concepts of substitution and leakage. There are many reasons to approve the $30 milllion rebate and I want the stadium as much as anyone but to make the case based on economics is ridiculous.

After Hermida and De Aza return this would be my lineup: Hermida Ramirez Cabrera Willingham / Jacobs Jacobs / Willingham Uggla Ross / De Aza (CF platoon) Olivo Good thing we didn't dump Ross during ST.

Wll Godfather, I admit with the game on the line I would rather have Hanley over Alfredo every single time. If you don't agree with that that's fine with me.