For those interested in next offseason, here's an article on it from rotoworld.

 

 

Strike Zone - Upcoming Free Agents

By Matthew Pouliot

Executive Editor, RotoWorld.com

March 1, 2005

 

By popular demand, this week?s column looks at next winter?s crop of free agents. It?s not an especially strong group, with only Lance Berkman and maybe Aramis Ramirez likely to receive contracts worth $50 million or more. Still, there is a fair amount of depth, especially in the outfield.

 

Catchers

 

Mike Piazza - Mets - Piazza?s Mets career likely will come to an end after the season. In fact, the future Hall of Famer hasn?t committed to playing beyond 2005. There probably won?t be much interest in him as a full-time catcher, and he isn?t eager to become a full-time designated hitter. Still, it would be a surprise if he called it quits. Expect the Orioles rumors to start up again. They could alternate him and Javy Lopez between catcher and DH.

 

Ramon Hernandez - Padres - As the top all-around catcher likely to be available, Hernandez figures to get a deal worth more than $6 million per season for three or four years. He could be Piazza?s replacement in New York. The two L.A. teams may also have interest, depending on what happens with each club?s catching prospects this year.

 

Others: Bengie Molina, Brad Ausmus, Benito Santiago, Charles Johnson, Dan Wilson, Todd Pratt, Einar Diaz, Paul Bako, Sandy Alomar Jr.

 

Options

Mike Lieberthal - Phillies - $7.5 million club option vests with 110 plate appearances.

Gregg Zaun - Blue Jays - $1 million club option vests at 70 games played

 

 

First Basemen/Designated Hitters

 

Paul Konerko - White Sox - The White Sox love to talk about speed, but with Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee gone and Frank Thomas probably soon to follow, they figure to make every effort to re-sign Konerko, one of the game?s slowest first basemen. There?s a real chance that a deal will get done before he becomes a free agent.

 

Erubiel Durazo - Athletics - If Durazo has another season like his 2004 (.321/.396/.523), he?s going to be too expensive for the A?s to keep. His contract year could inspire him to turn in his first 30-homer season. Dan Johnson should take over at DH for the A?s next year, assuming he?s not installed as Scott Hatteberg?s replacement at first base.

 

Frank Thomas - White Sox - The Big Hurt?s complicated contract includes a $12 million team option and a $10 million player option for 2006. Thomas exercised his player option for this year and probably will do the same for next, but unlike this year, the White Sox can terminate their relationship with Thomas by paying him a $3.5 million buyout. It?s very likely they?ll go that route unless Thomas plays at an All-Star level after returning from ankle surgery.

 

Kevin Millar - Red Sox - Millar was fairly disappointing in his first year and a half with the Red Sox. He?ll need to play more like he did in the second half of last season in order to be re-signed for 2006. Another team figures to overpay for him. The Red Sox may already have his replacement in Roberto Petagine.

 

Others: Travis Lee, J.T. Snow, Rafael Palmeiro, Jeff Conine, Brad Fullmer*, Tony Clark, Julio Franco

 

Options

Doug Mientkiewicz - Mets - $3.75 million club option with a $450,000 buyout

Tino Martinez - Yankees - $3 million club option with a $250,000 buyout

Scott Hatteberg - Athletics - Club option worth approximately $2.75 million.

 

* I?m going out on a limb and predicting that Fullmer won?t get a multiyear deal at this late date.

 

 

Second Basemen

Ray Durham - Giants - Durham holds a $7 million player option, so it?s up to him whether he becomes a free agent. He had the best OPS of his career last season, but he was limited to 120 games after playing in just 110 in 2003. He?ll have to avoid the DL this year if he?s going to do better than $7 million in 2006. Most likely, he?ll choose to remain with the Giants.

 

Bret Boone - Mariners - Boone last year went back to hitting like he did before joining the Mariners in 2001. He turns 36 in April, so he?s probably signed his last multiyear deal. Seattle figures to let him go and turn second base over to Jose Lopez. A July trade is a possibility unless the team is contention.

 

Placido Polanco - Phillies - We all know what happened to Polanco in the offseason. He?ll probably be more attractive next winter since the Phillies aren?t likely to offer him arbitration again.

 

Others: Mark Grudzielanek, Roberto Alomar, Jose Hernandez, Miguel Cairo, Tony Graffanino, Desi Relaford, Damion Easley, Rey Sanchez, Fernando Vina

 

Options

Mark Loretta - Padres - $3 million club option guaranteed with 293 plate appearances

Ronnie Belliard - Indians - $4 million club option with a $500,000 buyout

Todd Walker - Cubs - $2.5 million-$2.75 million vesting club option

 

 

Third Basemen

 

Aramis Ramirez - Cubs - Even though Ramirez is asking for more than $10 million per season, it doesn?t seem all that likely he?ll become a free agent. The Cubs think they have a long-term answer to their third-base woes in the ex-Pirate and could give him at least $45 million over four years.

 

Bill Mueller - Red Sox - If Ramirez agrees to an extension with the Cubs and Aaron Boone plays well enough to get his option picked up, Mueller might be the best third baseman on the market, trick knee and all. The Red Sox figure to have some interest in re-signing him, even with Kevin Youkilis likely to be ready to take over.

 

Others: Jose Valentin, Joe Randa, Alex Gonzalez (TB), Wes Helms, Geoff Blum

 

Options

Aaron Boone - Indians - $4.5 million club option

 

 

Shortstops

 

Nomar Garciaparra - Cubs - Nomar took the one-year deal from the Cubs to try to rehabilitate his value. At age 31, he needs to prove he can still be viewed as a long-term shortstop. If it happens, the Cubs likely will keep him.

 

Rafael Furcal - Braves - Atlanta spent big to lock up Tim Hudson for several years, making it an open question whether they?ll have the money to re-sign Furcal. With Marcus Giles also about to start getting pretty expensive, I think Furcal is on the way out. The Cubs, Tigers, Cardinals and Diamondbacks would be potential pursuers.

 

Alex Gonzalez - Marlins - Gonzalez is at least as valuable as Cristian Guzman, who received $16.8 million over four years from the Nationals. He?s the better defender of the two, and his 20-homer power will appeal to teams, even though he gets on base only about 29 percent of the time. The Marlins will probably re-sign him.

 

Others: Rich Aurilia, Pokey Reese, Royce Clayton, Jose Vizcaino, Deivi Cruz, Neifi Perez

 

 

Outfielders

 

Lance Berkman - Astros - He?s not going to get Carlos Beltran money, but if he makes it to free agency, Berkman should receive the winter?s biggest contract. He has 90 points of OPS on Magglio Ordonez over the course of his career, and he?ll be entering free agency a year younger than Ordonez did. The Astros need to re-sign him and should be able to do so, but if they can?t, expect the Red Sox, Dodgers and Orioles to make bids.

 

Johnny Damon - Red Sox - Damon is coming off his best season as a member of the Red Sox, and he just turned 31 in November. He?s probably in line for a deal similar to the four-year, $32 million pact he?s finishing up this year. The Red Sox figure to try to re-sign him for two years and they could go to three if they have to. If nothing gets done before the end of the season, the Yankees likely will try to steal him away.

 

Brian Giles - Padres - Giles? OPS has dropped from 1072 in 2002 to 941 in 2003 and 849 last season. Now 34, he may be looking at a Jeff Kent-type contract (two years, $17 million), and that?s assuming he doesn?t slip further this year. The Padres are in a tough situation. The contracts they?ve given out to aging sluggers haven?t worked out so well, and they have Xavier Nady ready to start. Still, it would be especially hard to let Giles go after giving up as much talent as they did to get him. If he leaves, Atlanta may be his preferred destination, as he could play with his brother. However, he?d likely get better offers from the losers in the Berkman sweepstakes.

 

Sammy Sosa - Orioles - The club option for 2006 on Sosa?s contract was eliminated as part of the trade sending him to Baltimore, not that anyone was going to want to pick it up. Talk that Sosa would receive a two-year extension not long after agreeing to the trade has died down, but the Orioles figure to revisit the idea at a later date. Expect a new contract to get done.

 

Hideki Matsui - Yankees - With just three years in the majors, Matsui won?t have the service time to become a free agent after his deal with the Yankees runs out. However, a clause in his contract requires that he be placed on waivers if no new deal is agreed to. It?s very likely that something will be worked out. Matsui doesn?t want to play anywhere other than New York, and it doesn?t appear that he?ll ask for anything unreasonable.

 

Preston Wilson - Rockies - Wilson will be a very interesting case. He?s only turning 31 in July, so if he proves he?s over his knee problems, he could have four more good seasons left in him. Still, it would take a fairly exceptional set of circumstances to make him a player that smart teams should pursue. If he performs well this year, his Coors Field-inflated stats could lead to him making $9 million or more per season. If he doesn?t, then it?s a pretty good sign that his body just isn?t going to hold up for the long haul.

 

Bernie Williams - Yankees - Williams? huge seven-year, $87.5 million contract is finally set to expire. The Yankees will fail to get their money?s worth for a third straight season in 2005, but they still might re-sign Williams in the offseason, giving him a chance to spend his entire career with one team.

 

Jacque Jones - Twins - Jones has appeared on the way out before, but this should be his last year in Minnesota. Jason Kubel will take over in right field next season, assuming he?s recovered from the knee injury he suffered in the Arizona Fall League. Jones? performance against right-handers will earn him a multiyear contract worth at least $5 million per season. He has finished with an 800 OPS just once in his career, but that?s only the case because the Twins have stubbornly refused to platoon him.

 

Admin Walker - Cardinals - The Cardinals? $15 million option on Walker for next year won?t be exercised. The 38-year-old might retire, depending on what happens this season as far as health and performance. If he wants to keep playing, he?ll probably sign a one-year deal to stay with St. Louis.

 

Moises Alou - Giants - The second year of the $13.25 million contract Alou signed with the Giants is a player option. If his father returns as manager, it?s very likely he?ll stick around.

 

Dmitri Young - Tigers - The Tigers hold an $8 million option on Young that will become guaranteed if he amasses 500 plate appearances, a figure he?s reached just once in his three years with the club. Since he?s expected to be used primarily as a DH, there?s a pretty good chance that he?ll get there this year.

 

Jeromy Burnitz - Cubs - Burnitz?s deal with the Cubs included a mutual option for 2006 worth $7 million. The Cubs don?t figure to exercise their half, although they may want to re-sign him at a lesser price.

 

Others: Richard Hidalgo, Randy Winn, Juan Gonzalez, Matt Lawton, Jose Cruz Jr., Dave Roberts, Marquis Grissom, Juan Encarnacion, Kenny Lofton, Jay Payton, Carl Everett, Craig Biggio, Reggie Sanders, Rondell White, Eli Marrero, Danny Bautista, Todd Hollandsworth, Raul Mondesi, Michael Tucker, Matt Stairs, Bobby Higginson, Ruben Sierra, B.J. Surhoff, Tim Salmon, Terrence Long*, Brian Jordan, Ben Grieve, John Mabry, Roger Cedeno

 

Options

Carlos Lee - Brewers - $8.5 million club option with $500,000 buyout

Jose Guillen - Nationals - $4 million club option with a $300,000 buyout

Eric Young - Padres - $850,000 club option with a $150,000 buyout

 

Things can change, but the Brewers and Nationals wouldn?t have acquired Lee and Guillen, respectively, unless they intended to pick up the option years.

 

* Long won?t actually have the service time to automatically become a free agent, but his long-term contract is finally set to expire and he?s almost certain to be non-tendered.

 

 

Starting Pitchers

 

A.J. Burnett - Marlins - Since Tim Hudson signed a four-year contract to stay with Atlanta, Burnett projects as the best starter available. He just needs to make 30 starts this season and he?ll be looking at earning more than $10 million per year as a free agent. I doubt he?ll be staying with the Marlins.

 

Brad Penny - Dodgers - If everything breaks right, Penny is the other pitcher who could get $10 million or more per year next winter. He appeared on his way to an excellent 2004 before the biceps nerve problem did him in, and with Dodger Stadium helping him, he?s capable of finishing in the top five in the NL in ERA this year. Still, it?s hard to get too excited at this point. The injury that took Penny down last year was something of a fluke, but there have long been lingering concerns about his arm.

 

Jeff Weaver - Dodgers - Only Randy Johnson had more quality starts than Weaver last season. The New York teams might not be interested in him when he becomes a free agent, but several other organizations will be. He could get Russ Ortiz money ($34 million over four years) if he again makes 34 starts and keeps his ERA right around 4.00.

 

Chris Carpenter - Cardinals - 30 starts. It?s just as important of a total for Carpenter as it is Burnett and Penny. Carpenter has gotten there only once as a major leaguer. Last year, he made 28 starts before going down in September with a problem similar to Penny?s. While there isn?t nearly as much chance of a recurrence with Carpenter, there?s a real chance that something else will go wrong.

 

Matt Morris - Cardinals - Shoulder surgery prevented Morris from receiving his big contract in the offseason. If he gets his fastball back this year, he can get back in line for a big pay day. I wouldn?t recommend it, but some team might pay $36 million over four years for his services.

 

Kevin Brown - Yankees - Yeah, the season ended horribly, but Brown did have a 4.09 ERA in his 22 starts last season. That?s not so bad. If his back doesn?t give him too much trouble this year, Brown will likely want to continue his career in 2006. He could return to the National League, signing with Atlanta or Florida.

 

Jarrod Washburn - Angels - Washburn would have become a free agent in December had Matt Clement picked Anaheim over Boston. The Angels will probably look to upgrade again unless Washburn returns to form this year. He?s probably never again going to pitch like he did in 2002 (18 wins, 3.15 ERA), but maybe his 2001 numbers (3.77 ERA in 193 1/3 IP) aren?t completely out of reach.

 

Tony Armas Jr. - Nationals - If Armas overcomes his shoulder problems, he?s capable of a Carl Pavano-type ascension this year. He?s a lot more likely to be solid than outstanding, but he has about as much upside as Penny and Carpenter.

 

Jason Schmidt - Giants - The Giants hold a $10.75 million option on Schmidt that they?re sure to exercise as long as he avoids arm problems this season.

 

Roger Clemens - Astros - It?s probably Clemens? last year. Probably.

 

Tom Glavine - Mets - Glavine needs to pitch 164 1/3 innings this year to guarantee himself at least $8 million in 2006. If he fails to reach that total, there?s a mutual option worth $6.5 million. If he misses so much time that the vesting option fails to kick in, the Mets should look to move on. That?s not likely to happen, though. Glavine has pitched 165 innings in 17 straight seasons. With the exception of the strike year of 1994, he hasn?t fallen short of 180.

 

Jamie Moyer - Mariners - Moyer, who turns 43 in November, likely will consider retirement.

 

Others: Kevin Millwood, Al Leiter, Esteban Loaiza, Kenny Rogers, Tim Wakefield, Paul Byrd, Brett Tomko, Jose Lima, Jason Johnson, Shawn Estes, Brian Anderson, Kirk Rueter, Ismael Valdez, Hideo Nomo, Pedro Astacio

 

Options

Mark Mulder - Cardinals - $7.25 million club option with a $250,000 buyout

John Thomson - Braves - $4.75 million club option with a $500,000 buyout

Woody Williams - Padres - $4 million club option vests with 15 starts this year

Jeff Suppan - Cardinals - $4 million club option with a $1 million buyout

Ramon Ortiz - Reds - $4.55 million mutual option with $100,000-$250,000 buyout*

Steve Trachsel - Mets - $6 million club option vests with 150 innings pitched this year

Joe Mays - Twins - $8.5 million club option with a $500,000 buyout

Glendon Rusch - Cubs - Player option worth approx. $2 million

 

* Ortiz will lack six years service time, so the Reds could decline the option and offer him arbitration in order to keep him. However, he?ll probably either pitch well enough to get the option exercised or the team won?t want him back.

 

 

Relievers

 

Billy Wagner - Phillies - It?s easy to overlook because he missed a third of the season, but Wagner had a 59/6 K/BB ratio in 48 1/3 innings in 2004. He remains about as dominant as any pitcher in the game. However, there?s a real chance that he?d go Robb Nen on any team crazy enough to sign him to a long-term deal. A healthy season in 2005 will net him at least a two-year contract in the offseason. I?d be surprised if he?s still going strong in 2007.

 

B.J. Ryan - Orioles - Ryan had a Wagner-type season in 2004, finishing with a 2.28 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 87 innings. Since he?s likely to take over as Baltimore?s closer this year, he won?t come cheap as a free agent. Still, he?ll probably earn less than Wagner and outperform him over the following few years.

 

Octavio Dotel - Athletics - Agegate hit Dotel hard, so he?ll enter free agency as a 32-year-old. Given his heavy workload as a reliever and his history of minor elbow problems, he doesn?t seem like a great three- or four-year signing. Unfortunately, he might have had his best seasons while he had little say in what he was earning.

 

Trevor Hoffman - Padres - I hope Hoffman keeps pitching, mainly because I?m interested in seeing just how much velocity he?ll have to lose before his changeup ceases to be such a weapon. Hideo Nomo?s fastball-splitter combination didn?t survive while he was topping out at 85 mph, but Hoffman still might be able to succeed while working at 80 mph. Expect him to remain San Diego?s closer in 2006. He?s 85 saves shy of Lee Smith?s career mark of 478.

 

Ugueth Urbina - Tigers - Assuming his birth certificate is accurate, Urbina, born Feb. 15, 1974, is actually a few months younger than Dotel. I don?t think he has a lot of good years left, but he?s probably not through as a closer.

 

Tom Gordon - Yankees - Gordon revealed last week that he?d like to go back into the rotation as a 38-year-old in 2006. It?s not going to happen with the Yankees and probably won?t anyway. He could stay with the Yankees as a setup man or close for another team.

 

Braden Looper - Mets - Looper had a 2.70 ERA and converted 29 of 34 save opportunities last season. If he does that well again, the Mets are very likely to pick up his $5 million option for 2006.

 

Jose Mesa - Pirates - Pittsburgh holds a $4 million option with a $500,000 buyout for 2006. Even if Mesa pitches reasonably well once again, the Pirates may choose not to exercise it. It?d be quite a salary bump for someone who made $1.265 million in 2004 and will earn $2 million this year.

 

Danny Graves - Reds - I?m not sure how much it?s worth, but there?s a mutual option for 2006 in Graves? contract. Odds are it?s for right around the $6.25 million he?s making this year. If so, the Reds should decline their half unless Graves pitches better than he did last year.

 

Eddie Guardado - Mariners - Because of his partially torn rotator cuff and bum knee, Guardado elected to exercise his $4.5 million player option for 2005 after the Mariners declined their $6 million team option. The same system is in place for 2006, although the price of the club option increases to $7 million. Guardado can again choose to return at $4.5 million if the club option is declined.

 

LaTroy Hawkins - Cubs - Hawkins holds a $3.5 million player option for 2006 that could grow in value to $5 million or so if he?s a closer. If he remains a setup man and a very good one, he might be able to do better as a free agent. If Scott Schoeneweis can get $2.6 million per year, Hawkins is worth $4 million easy.

 

Others: Bob Wickman, Ryan Dempster, Tim Worrell, Kyle Farnsworth, Julian Tavarez, Mike Timlin, Felix Rodriguez, Paul Quantrill, Alan Embree, Mike Remlinger, Scott Eyre, Ricardo Rincon, Mike DeJean, Darren Dreifort, Ricky Bottalico, Chris Hammond, Steve Karsay, Matt Mantei, Mike Stanton, Gabe White, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Matt Herges, Terry Adams, Scott Sullivan, Billy Koch, David Weathers, Todd Jones, Kerry Ligtenberg, Jay Witasick, Antonio Osuna, Tom Martin, Jim Mecir, Cal Eldred, Doug Brocail, Ben Weber

 

Options

Antonio Alfonseca - Marlins - $2.7 million club option vests with 65 appearances

Felix Heredia - Mets - $2.5 million club option with a $200,000 buyout

Scott Williamson - Cubs - $2 million club option

John Halama - Red Sox - $1.75 million mutual option with a $150,000 buyout

Elmer Dessens - Dodgers - $1.3 million mutual option with a $250,000 buyout

Jamie Walker - Tigers - $1.25 million club option

Steve Reed - Orioles - $1.25 million mutual option with a $150,000 buyout

Cliff Politte - White Sox - $1.2 million club option with a $100,000 buyout

 

 

 

 

Saying Burnett will leave is no great shock, because if he makes it to next offseason as a free agent I expect him to. That's why he's gotta be re-signed mid-season if possible.

 

Gonzalez returning would be somewhat surprising with Wilson and Andino both as potential cheaper replacements who aren't as good at D but would likely contribute decent offensive numbers. If Gonzalez gets offered a deal greater than the one Guzman took I say let him walk, though I'm sure others will disagree and say his defense is too valuable.

 

I want no part of Kevin Brown, either, unless he's dirt cheap. Go with prospects like Olsen, Bazardo, Johnson, or T-Hutch if Leiter retires and/or Valdez leaves.

good list. Id like a Brian Giles or Johny Damon but those our longshots.

need to re-sign gonzo.

and hey what about everyday eddie?

Signing AJ is so important to this team.. I'm not sure what we're gonna do without him if only Beckett and DTrain return.

That's a pretty good cast of starters. Not many aces, but more solid #2s and #3s than were available ths year.

I have to agree with RFerry here (this is happening way too often lately - lolol) that there appears to be a plethora of talent potentially available in 2006, making re-signing AJ less of a priority (not that I wouldn't want him to stay).

 

It may also be that with the number of guys flooding free agency prices may drop or at least stabilize.

Nearly everyone of the 12 listed above Valdez. Can Moyer keep going? Was Weaver's bounce back due to pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium? Nonetheless he has better talent.

 

And Millwood, Leiter (if he's coming back that means he had a good year and has enough left in the tank), Loiaza. Wakefield is consistent. I hate to say this, but Jason Johnson is a beter pitcher than Valdez. Same production. More innings. Home and away.

I have to agree with RFerry here (this is happening way too often lately - lolol) that there appears to be a plethora of talent potentially available in 2006, making re-signing AJ less of a priority (not that I wouldn't want him to stay).

 

It may also be that with the number of guys flooding free agency prices may drop or at least stabilize.

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I'm not sure I see a "plethora" of talent.

 

After (this is assuming no deals are worked out) Burnett and Penny, none of the pitchers listed either figure to make it to free agency (Schmidt) or stand as reasonable long-term investments (Carpenter, Morris).

 

The only guy on that list that intrigues me as a possible replacement is Tony Armas Jr., and you have to figure that he'd get at least Matt Clement money.

 

Aside from Brown (who I'm sure we can weigh the pro's and con's of) AJ is the only pitcher there who screams staff ace when healthy, and unlike Brown, AJ's a durable work-horse. We need to capitalize off the Braves' signing of Hudson way below market value and throw a 4/$32 million offer at AJ.

I have a feeling that next year Konerko will be a pretty hot commodity.

I don't mean to speak for Marlins2003 ( :lol at the thought), but there's plenty of pitchers on that list you could add to Beckett, Willis and Olsen/Bazardo/Kensing and call it a good staff.

 

Hopefully though Leiter has a successful year and opts to comes back.

im' going to cry if we lose aj. what ever happend to south florida having the best young pitchers....when no one wanted to face them. blah.

If Hermida struggles in AA and Enc has a bad year, there are quite a lot of options out there for the fish to sign. Jones would seemingly be perfect as I dont see him garnering a immense contract while at the same time being a great replacment for Niner.

 

Extend AJ's contract.

Use money saved from Conine and Enc being off the books to sign Jones.

Andruw Jones?! Oh, Jacque. Why no just stick with the righthanded version (Encarnacion)?

good list. Id like a Brian Giles or Johny Damon but those our longshots.

need to re-sign gonzo.

and hey what about everyday eddie?

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I hope we dont sign damon. Hes highly overrated, we already have a leadoff hitter, possibly 2, and he wotn have near the power numbers here that he has at fenway.