I wrote this blog and wanted some feedback from some of you guys here...check it out:

 

Best approach: stand pat

The options for a deal for AJ Burnett has gotten more narrow - despite his recent success and the fact that the Marlins seem to be leaning towards taking Lowell out as part of the attachment for any deal. It seems the Red Sox and the White Sox are in a bidding war, right now, for Burnett. But the only piece of laundry that AJ should be wearing is a jersey that has "Marlins" written across the front.

 

I know, I know. You are probably thinking why I had a change of heart. I haven't. I always have liked and respected AJ's talent; it was just his inconsistency that drives me crazy. And his seemingly poisoned tongue that looks to slash at this organization. But winning and hope can change things - or at least put them on hold.

 

AJ is gone after this season. No doubt. The Marlins know this, AJ knows this, the Yankees know this. The debate is or has always been, should the Marlins trade AJ and at least get something for him in return? To lose Pavano for sandwich picks in the amateur draft is ok; but to do it two years in a row? And for a talent like AJ Burnett? Not exactly capatilizing on his value for this franchise.

 

Of course, there is another way to define value. If the Marlins can pull it together and get into the playoffs, they have a very good chance of winning the whole gosh-darned thing with AJ and Beckett taking the ball. Just ask the DBacks how Randy and Schilling fared for them in the playoffs a few years back. Or even the Cubs when Wood and Prior are healthy. The fact is, teams that excell in the post season have fireballers in their rotations and in their pens. I see the Braves nodding in the back of the room.

 

So yes, to keep AJ means you will lose him for basically nothing at the end of the season. But to keep him means you risk winning it all. You are in a better position to do so with AJ here than by trading him - no matter how successful you think Jason Vargas will be or any other call up. And with Dontrelle hitting a rough patch, this may be the most approriate time to hold onto AJ.

 

For the Marlins, standing pat is the best situation. It only assures a greater possibility of winning for this team and there really isnt a knock down deal for AJ out there. And when the Marlins attach Lowell's contract the focus is less about talent but more about contract flexibility. This means the talent that will be netted in return is less likely to contribute at the current level already in-house. As for Lowell, I dont think dealing him may be in the best interest from a PR perspective let alone he is starting to hit the ball again (over his last 7 games he is 8/25 with 1 HR and 7 RBI).

 

With the Marlins moving up in the wild card standings while only going 5-5 on this road trip and the recent offensive explosion, it seems both Jack McKeon and Bill Robinson have managed to secure their jobs for the meantime.

 

Maybe all of this is a sign. Maybe it is just dumb luck. Maybe, it is time for the Marlins to finally rise to the occasion. Either way you look at it, standing pat keeps the possibility for it to continue in place.

I agree 100%.

good writing but I would still trade AJ.

 

He's gone after this year and I think we can win without him right now.

good writing but I would still trade AJ.

 

He's gone after this year and I think we can win without him right now.

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I can see your point. We did win the WS without him in '03. We have a better offense this year than we did then. A better bullpen than we did then. And even a similar rotation - without AJ.

 

But the NL East is stronger overall this year. And the 2nd place team in the NL East is most likely going to be the WC winner. The attrition rate may be a factor. And that is why I think keeping AJ - and getting basically nothing in return - may be the best thing for this team's chances at winning.

 

Of course, we win and lose AJ, there is going to be some public frustration, too.

I'm going to have to agree with Jonnylons on this one.

 

The team as it is right now, has the caliber to make a serious playoff run.

 

It is better to hold on to AJ all the way, even if we won't be getting much back in the offseason.

Nice writing. Well thought out argument. I agree. I can't imagine getting back any pitcher in a trade that I'd prefer over AJ in the playoffs this year. Let's stick with Beckett-AJ-Willis, as our 1-2-3 and take the risk that we can win this year. Worry about next year next year.

The other thing, which I didnt mention here and we were discussing 'elsewhere', was the Barry Zito factor.

 

Zito was struggling and that young core of pitching talent around him was doing pretty well. I was hoping to see us flip AJ Burnett and somehow land Zito in the process. Of course, you can kiss that idea good bye now that Zito - and the A's - are hot hot hot.

When was the last time a team that was in last place this late in the season stood pat at the deadline and made the playoffs? :plain

When was the last time a team that was in last place this late in the season stood pat at the deadline and made the playoffs? :plain

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I believe the proposal to stand pat refers to not trading AJ. That doesn't preclude the possibility of trading elsewhere, like giving up one of our pitching prospects in return for a quality reliever/closer.

When was the last time a team that was in last place this late in the season stood pat at the deadline and made the playoffs?? :plain

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I believe the proposal to stand pat refers to not trading AJ. That doesn't preclude the possibility of trading elsewhere, like giving up one of our pitching prospects in return for a quality reliever/closer.

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That's a good point, Chewie. Maybe I should have been more specific with my title - PierreMVP got it right though. I was intending it to be meant for not trading AJ, Mike, or firing (gulp) Jack or Bill Robinson. I think we could stand to benefit from another bullpen arm, although with Valdez back and AA coming back, I dont think that is absolutely vital, either. (In other words, dont give up the farm to make a deal for now - especially with AJ leaving AFTER the season)

 

And if we follow this reasoning, we actually may not make a move at all. This team has the talent in-house to win right now. They just have to start executing.

Good article.

 

I pretty much agree with what Beinfest has said all along, that we will keep AJ unless some team makes an offer too good to refuse. With the Marlins seemingly on an up trend, I think AJ's price just got a little higher.

 

I would think the new agenda would be to wait until the deadline to gather some more information. Is the team finally starting to play to it's potential?? So far, so good, but another week will be a little more of a sample size to work with. If we win more than we lose this week, It's gonna take a lot to get AJ IMO.

nice piece but Im in the trade AJ and Lowell camp

I don't see any indication that the Marlins can win without AJ (especially the way the D-Train has been pitching).

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Me neither- our starters are too shaky for my liking (D-Train's slump, Beckett's injuries, Valdez in general)

I said a few weeks ago...

 

"Stay with the lady you took to the dance."

 

Many herein are too young to remember that adage.

 

It means keep Lowell and AJ.

 

Don't go whoring around.

AJ has been struggling himself. Maybe we can find a replacement who perform better or as well down the stretch.

I think a lot rides on the DTrain ... im kinda worried

 

 

I would like a serious trade to shake things up and AJ is the only thing on the line that could make an impact

 

unless we sweep the next two series

Keeping AJ gives us the best chances of winning this year. Keep him. As far as Lowell goes, I still believe he will finish the year strong (he's definitely done well lately), no point in trading him now when no one wants him. We can always trade him at the end of the season when hopefully his average (and value) will be higher, if we really want to dump his salary that is.

i also agree to keep a.j., but only if there is no awesome deal in return, if we keep a.j. and make it to the playoffs, we will win!!! imagine this 1st game beckett, 2nd game willis, 3rd game a.j. sweep, next series, beckett,willis,a.j.,win,win,win, then moehler/valdez lose, beckett win. next series willis,a.j, beckett,win,win,win,moehler/valdez win/lose, willis-win. Of course this is all if they are like there good-selves not the slumping willis of late, the injuried beckett, and the wild burnett. if we make it to the playoffs the offense will be decent enough to put up an average of 4,5,6 runs a game and the pitching will be amazing.

Well written, I've said many times already forget 2006 and beyond, we're in the race in 2005 so go all out and keep AJ who gives us a better shot.

AJ has been struggling himself. Maybe we can find a replacement who perform better or as well down the stretch.

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Who's really available though (that is actually decent)? It's no coincidence that the Red Sox and Orioles covet Burnett to fill their starting pitching needs. Wouldn't they be after someone who's not a rental?

 

Bottom line is, he's the best pitcher on the market and no one else comes close.

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You're preaching to the choir here.

 

 

If you can't find a decent pitcher out there you need to take off your blindfold.

Well written, I've said many times already forget 2006 and beyond, we're in the race in 2005 so go all out and keep AJ who gives us a better shot.

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Agreed. At this point the team is starting to show signs of life, and are only 4.5 games out. AJ gives us our best chance both to get to the playoffs and to win once we're there.

after this year Vazquez will demand a trade to the East coast (as per his contract). When he does that the marlins can try to aquire him then. So really if we lose AJ we still have options then. Perhaps even now if we really go after him.

 

I trust in beinfest to trade AJ or keep him. Personally I am in for keeping him though.

AJ has been struggling himself. Maybe we can find a replacement who perform better or as well down the stretch.

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Who's really available though (that is actually decent)? It's no coincidence that the Red Sox and Orioles covet Burnett to fill their starting pitching needs. Wouldn't they be after someone who's not a rental?

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If you can't find a decent pitcher out there you need to take off your blindfold.

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Could you give me some names?

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Sure, but I won't because it will lead to morons and trolls involving themselves in what has been an encouraging chat. Let's talk in the abstract.

 

Considering our place in the standings and the expected performance of our players, manager and coaches from late July on, let us just assume for this exercise the present squad is capable of making the playoffs. No changes. No AJ trade. No bullpen arm. No nothing.

 

We are asking if we can replace Burnett from this team. Let us ignore that any pitcher's performance can vary from one point of the season to the next... there are currently 28 pitchers who have 10 or more games who currently have ERAs lower than A.J.'s. None of them have been made available {as you clearly pointed out in your first post quoted and also one reason why some people think we can get a big haul from A.J.} But, wait, we know that not all pitchers are consistent, in fact I'd estimate 99.9% of them aren't. A.J.'s career is too short and too injury ridden to draw anything from his splits. He's only pitched 132 innings two other times in his career. He's only had one season in which he did not miss significant time. A glimpse around the extended leaderboard, I see a good number of pitchers who are not pitching as well as they have proven in the past, some of them available others not.

 

Why are we just limiting ourselves to pitchers though? Baseball is a multi-faceted game. You have an equal opportunity to score or prevent runs at any point of a nine-plus-inning game, however the game is designed that your average pitcher gets the average batter out 65% of the time. There's 25 on a team who are asked to help, 20 to 21 who make a significant impact. So what we are trying to figure out is not who is better: Burnett or replacement starter, but actually:

 

B * E >=< (R * E) + (S * E)

where B stands for Burnett's expected performance from here on in 2005, R stands for his replacement starter's expected performance, S stands for any secondary improvements that are acquired from trading Burnett, and E for other effects not otherwise factored in our projections.

 

I happen to think two pitchers on two different teams that use the name 'Sox' and have been rumored in recent trade talks offer a solid base to even things out depending on your opinion of Burnett's rest of the season might look like and who or what S might be.