Courtesy of my boy on another Marlin's site, here are some numbers to look at with the DTrain

 

Dontrelle's pitch counts this year:

 

107

112

113

106

91

120

103

72

117

108

109

120

116

119

116

117

116

125

104

109

111

61

120

114

115

 

15 starts inwhich Dontrelle has gone over 110 pitches. Four 120 pitch games is crazy, it will hurt Willis this year and long term. In some states you can be put in jail for issuing this kind of abuse.

 

When your WHIP is 1.50 that means you're pitching a lot of high stress innings, so it's not like Dontrelle's going 8 innings a start with a very low WHIP. Even though he will not admit it, I guarantee Dontrelle is tired considering he much he's had to work this year plus his career high in IP last year.

 

That's an average of about 108 pitches per start, good for 4th in the majors behind Zambrano 112, Arroyo 109, Schmidt 109. Should we be worried?

Yes you should. Narron does the same thing with Harang and Arroyo and their 2nd half stats show he is wearing them down. It almost seems like no matter how he performs, Girardi doesn't take out Willis until he gets around the 110 pitch mark. That isn't a good way to manage.

Wow, I didn't realize his pitch counts were that consistently high this year.

Almost wonder if he should be traded offseason before he totally loses it after seeing those numbers

it'll fall off and he'll still be nodding emphatically.

I believe that Girardi has been pushing Dontrelle to the limit this season since he is the only one in the rotation who has pitched a large amount of innings in a season during his career. In other words, he is trying to preserve the rookies arms. At this point though, I think it is time Girardi goes to a six-man rotation in order to preserve Dontrelle's arm as well as the arms of our rookies.

I believe that Girardi has been pushing Dontrelle to the limit this season since he is the only one in the rotation who has pitched a large amount of innings in a season during his career. In other words, he is trying to preserve the rookies arms. At this point though, I think it is time Girardi goes to a six-man rotation in order to preserve Dontrelle's arm as well as the arms of our rookies.

 

I highly doubt we'll ever see that. They need to learn to throw over the course of a season, to be able to pitch 200 innings a year.

DTrain isn't a rookie. He's young, strong and he is used to the long season. He has a work out regime in the off season. What those numbers don't take into account is the injured pitchers that are normally work horses for their teams. Every team has a work horse. He is on his career average for IPs.

To me this thread is a lightly veiled attempt at Girardi bashing. If he was taken out earlier in games people would be complaining his numbers are so bad because Girardi isn't using him effectively by not letting him pitch his way out of situations.

Talk is already out there for a 6 man rotation and I think we will see that soon. Girardi has shown that he knows and cares about the number of pitches a pitcher gives us. I think he knows DTrains capabilities far better than number crunchers that are looking for excuses for DTrains lousy year and someone else to blame for them. Why not throw in that it is also Olivo's fault for DTrains number of pitches thrown and because Reggie's name is still on the roster.

Truth is simple. DTrain is below average on his career numbers this year because DTrain is below his career best.

I believe that Girardi has been pushing Dontrelle to the limit this season since he is the only one in the rotation who has pitched a large amount of innings in a season during his career. In other words, he is trying to preserve the rookies arms. At this point though, I think it is time Girardi goes to a six-man rotation in order to preserve Dontrelle's arm as well as the arms of our rookies.

 

That's exactly whats going on. He wants to get the most he can from the only guy who can go 8-9 innings a lot.

I said this in the game thread last night and the night before.

 

It is one of the only reasons I would ever consider trading him.

Wow how stupid are the Cubs!!!

 

1st they ruin Prior and Wood's arms. They trade us Nolasco and Willis.....and now they are trying to ruin Zambrano's arm.

Yep not a good thing to do with Willis, I really hate that once he gets to 100 that have to over extend him for a inning that he should be taken out.

 

Just like Monday's game, when he pitched that extra inning that he should of been out of the game.

Those numbers are misleading, if I recall, there were an obscene amount of starts where he struggled to get into the 6th inning with under 100 pitches.

 

To me, the wear and tear of "cool-down" between innings, warm up, repeat for 8 innings is more troublesome to long-term arm health than just go out there and suck for 5.

 

Unfortunately, Dontrelle's been doing more of the latter this season.

I still think they should trade him, but that's me.

 

 

I think so too. Of the 2 "stars" the far more important one to this offensively-challenged team is Cabrera. We have plenty of arms, but no bats that come close to Cabs -- in the long run he's more valuable to the team.

 

I love the DTrain but I think he's more a more viable trade option.

This year's pitch counts don't help, but what McKeon and the FO did to this kid at a younger age (and all the studies show you can handle more pitches per game as you get older, but need a low pitch count when young) was what ruined him. The total work load, and the number of pitches (several games over 120) at 21, 22, and 23 make future arm problems very likely. It's a sad aspect of the competitive pressures of the game.

 

The problem is that if the team doesn't win, the guys deciding how many pitches he should throw (which include the FO) suffer the consequences. They don't want him to get injured or lose effectiveness, at least not anytime soon, but as you can see from the table set out in WMM2003's post, most teams aren't above letting a starter keep pitching until over 120 pitches.

 

It's all about winning now.