So schools close when there is a hurricane watch?

heads up for people in palmetto bay/south miami

 

the shell on US 1 and SW 186th St, has almost no wait.. ive filled up my car and waited less than 10 mins

I was just watching the news and the weatherman said that he sincerely doubts, although anything is possible, that it'll strengthen all the way up to a strong category 1/category 2 storm before it hits Florida.

heads up for people in palmetto bay/south miami

 

the shell on US 1 and SW 186th St, has almost no wait.. ive filled up my car and waited less than 10 mins

I just went by there about ten minutes ago myself, and it's not anywhere as bad as most of the other stations I passed.

 

I filled up at work, no lines or waiting...there were only 3 of us there. One nice perk of my job.

Um, what do you think Central Florida looks to get? CAPE!? I need your personal prediction!

 

Ask the UF Dept. of Meteorology :shifty

 

Oh wait....that's right, Gainesville doesn't have one.

 

The NHC expects to be mostly rain and 30-70 MPH wind issues around Central Florida.

 

Of course it could slow, become a monster 5 and smack all of Florida once for all....but it has about as much odds of that as just simply ceasing to exist.

I'm nowhere near a pro, nor is (probably) many on this board .. but I'd probably say the latter (ceasing to exist) has a much greater chance rather than a category 5, just IMO of course and nothing official. It's looking more and more ragged lately and going through Cuba's mountains, so who knows what it'll do until its in the waters. They were saying it could become a TD before restrengthening into a possible TS/Cat 1 on ABC.

 

So schools close when there is a hurricane watch?

 

Most usually close the next day I think due to hurricane watch meaning in 36 hours you could see hurricane effects, and the buses (and who in their right mind wants their kids out there) can't run at all during TS winds. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I heard that when I was in school a few years ago.

 

 

 

PS. Avoid BP like the plague, it was $3.50 for the cheap stuff near here in Homestead.

Well, class is cancelled for me tomorrow :woot .

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2006

 

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED

FOR FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM

SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE

OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE

DRY TORTUGAS. THESE AREAS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

 

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FROM

CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

 

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW

SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

 

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE

BIMINIS AND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THESE ISLANDS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND

GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF

GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND

CAMAGUEY.

 

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

 

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 76.9W AT 28/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.

34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 0SW 90NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 76.9W AT 28/2100Z

AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 76.5W

 

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.5N 78.0W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.3N 79.7W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 26.1N 80.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.8N 80.8W...INLAND

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 40NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.5N 80.0W

MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

 

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W

MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

 

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 40.0N 78.0W...REMNANT LOW

MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

 

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 76.9W

 

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

 

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

 

 

 

TS warning for south fla as of 5pm. Winds still 40mph, pressure 1007mb and movement faster to NW 13mph.

track looks the same, too.

The chance it has to be a hurricane in Florida will entirely depend on where Ernesto is structure wise at the Diurnal Maxima tonight. If its able to reorganize quicker, than worry. I think it'll hit as a low end cat 1 as of now but thats just me.

The chance it has to be a hurricane in Florida will entirely depend on where Ernesto is structure wise at the Diurnal Maxima tonight. If its able to reorganize quicker, than worry. I think it'll hit as a low end cat 1 as of now but thats just me.

 

Every news station is saying it's going to hit South Florida as a category 1 and keep hurricane strength as it goes up into the Carolinas.

 

How much truth do you think there is in that?

The chance it has to be a hurricane in Florida will entirely depend on where Ernesto is structure wise at the Diurnal Maxima tonight. If its able to reorganize quicker, than worry. I think it'll hit as a low end cat 1 as of now but thats just me.

 

Every news station is saying it's going to hit South Florida as a category 1 and keep hurricane strength as it goes up into the Carolinas.

 

How much truth do you think there is in that? I think there is some truth and a lot of falsities. It all depends on how quickly it can organize. If it can reorganize by the diurnal maxima tonight, then there is a strong possibility of rapid intensification. The NHC will adjust if it occurs.

It will have almost 2 whole nights to get together.

I'd say 85 MPH at landfall

for those who are hurricane deficient, explain to me what i need for preparation since we're gonna get hit in VA: (not you cape since you explained some of it on AIM)

for those who are hurricane deficient, explain to me what i need for preparation since we're gonna get hit in VA: (not you cape since you explained some of it on AIM)

 

You probably don't need to prepare for anything but some downed trees and nasty rain.

for those who are hurricane deficient, explain to me what i need for preparation since we're gonna get hit in VA: (not you cape since you explained some of it on AIM)

 

 

When Isabel knocked out my power for weeks, the grill sure came in handy. Just get candles, a flashlight, matches, and some gallons of drinking water. But honestly dude, unless a Cat 5 storm hits VA, you're going to be beyond fine in Richmond.

for those who are hurricane deficient, explain to me what i need for preparation since we're gonna get hit in VA: (not you cape since you explained some of it on AIM)

 

Newb, just buy strawberry poptarts.

still sitting on cuba, looking worse than ever ..

this storm looks like junk...it'll probably be a drizzle by the time it gets here.

Its close to emerging off Cuba. Don't write this thing off because its overall circulation envelope is rather strong.

for those who are hurricane deficient, explain to me what i need for preparation since we're gonna get hit in VA: (not you cape since you explained some of it on AIM)

 

Newb, just buy strawberry poptarts.

During Andrew, I bought like 5 boxes of Pop Tarts and ate 3 of them. I still have the other two boxes somewhere. It's my "I Survived Hurricane Andrew" souvinier.

Its close to emerging off Cuba. Don't write this thing off because its overall circulation envelope is rather strong.

 

its been "close to emerging off Cuba" for hours now. hes been riding the coast.

000

WTNT35 KNHC 290840

TCPAT5

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

 

...ERNESTO BACK OVER WATER AND A LITTLE STRONGER...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG FLORIDA EAST

COAST...

 

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED

NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH. A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM

NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE

OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND

FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A

HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND

THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH

NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA

ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND

GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES

OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...

AND CAMAGUEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED

FOR THE EASTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

 

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 230

MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES

...380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

 

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE

FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...

SQUALLY EAINBANDS WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THESE AREAS DURING THE

AFTERNOON.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH

WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

 

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10

INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4

INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER

CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH

FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH

POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE

BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER

PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH

WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER

SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

 

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

 

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N...78.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

AM EDT.

 

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

 

 

 

45mph and 1005mb now, finally coming off Cuba.

We have the potential for some rapid intensification. Be on the look out.

the NHC is still predicting it to be a storm when it gets here.

 

also my school is making us go today... LAAAAAAAME.

We have the potential for some rapid intensification. Be on the look out.

 

Hopefully the same "rapid intesification" that happened last time, then we won't have too much to worry about.