UPDATED: TS Ernesto's track has been moved far to the east, and now has its sights set on Florida.

I'm suprised none of the weather gurus posted this on Thursday. This could be really bad (regarding the storm).

I've been wondering when our resident meteorolgists were going to start closely tracking Ernesto. Seeing as how Max Mayfield is going to retire soon, these guys need to step it up and become more high profile. :thumbup

I just looked at the models, and some say that its supposed to curve north when in the gulf, and with the Katrina aniversiry right around the corner? That's Nuts.

 

Looks like itll be cat 3 stregnth then too..

the AA am has the 5day forecast take a turn north, and possiblily aim for the NO-Mississippi area

Pinar Del Rio = :owned

On the bright side, we're only at the letter E right now (#5).

 

This time last year, we were already at Katrina (#11).

I am tracking it at http://hurricanewarning.blogspot.com/

 

It is still way too far out though. The 3 day cone should give us a better idea by Monday or Tuesday.

 

If it gets too close to me in Tallahassee, I might go south for the long weekend as I am in an evacuation situation.

 

I will have all the links and feeds for you guys once we get closer.

I am tracking it at http://hurricanewarning.blogspot.com/

 

It is still way too far out though. The 3 day cone should give us a better idea by Monday or Tuesday.

 

If it gets too close to me in Tallahassee, I might go south for the long weekend as I am in an evacuation situation.

 

I will have all the links and feeds for you guys once we get closer.

 

I'll be in Vermont starting Friday, so no worries for me.

those predictions keep pulling farther and farther to the right, i hope this doesnt end up like wilma...

geez. that's all New Orleans needs is another storm.

 

update the winds: winds have increased from 50 to 60 mph

Tally isn't looking so safe right now.

Tally isn't looking so safe right now.

 

 

I am not happy...time for me to start cleaning my yard. Watch the idiots at Waste Management not pickup this week.

Hey is there any possibility that a cold front will come and force this storm to make a sharp turn toward central Florida or is it too early to tell yet?

I thought there was already an "Ernesto" a few years ago.

I thought there was already an "Ernesto" a few years ago.

the names are on a rotation

The current forecast has it hitting westernmost point of the panhandle on Thursday night. Still too early to know, but I think anyone from eastern Tejas to western central Florida needs to seriously watch this system.

 

My expert opinion is that the pressure will bottom out into the morning/afternoon and you'll see this turn into a category 2 hurricane late tomorrow. However, it's bound to weaken somewhat when it passes over Cuba sometime Monday.

The Central Gulf Coast simply can't afford another hit. The damage would be irreperable for years.

 

 

That being said, we might have to worry about it down here if it continues to track to the right.

The 2AM track has it hitting Pensacola... It just keeps shifting to the right by the hour.

 

Monroe County in the cone.

WTNT35 KNHC 270838 CCA

TCPAT5

 

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

 

..CORRECTED TO ADD DEFINITION OF A HURRICANE WARNING...

 

..ERNESTO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

..HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...

 

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE

SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING

MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING

AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI

BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

JAMAICA.

 

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS

TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN

EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS

ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A

HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA

AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

 

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA

KEYS LATER TODAY.

 

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...

THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS

OF ERNESTO.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 120

MILES...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT

255 MILES...410 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

 

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE THE NEXT 24

HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS

VERY NEAR SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING

..AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER THIS

MORNING...AND A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF

CUBA.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

 

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA

AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO

APPROACHES.

 

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS

OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS

AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS

OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY

PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE

VIRGIN ISLANDS.

 

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

AM EDT.

 

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

000

WTNT65 KNHC 270951

TCUAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

504 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

 

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM

ERNESTO HAS NOW REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...

 

RECENT DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. THIS

MAKES ERNESTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE SCALE.

 

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

 

 

 

It's a hurricane as of 5:04AM

:lol at "Tropical Storm Ernesto"

 

look like school could get cancel for South Florida. YES!!!!

:lol at "Tropical Storm Ernesto"

 

look like school could get cancel for South Florida. YES!!!!

Don't count your chicken before they hatch.

 

 

If this thing keeps progressing more northerly today and just has the limited land interaction between Haiti (its almost at the peninsula right now) then south Florida can really start worrying, though the storm possibly could be weaker. But it is undergoing rapid intensification right now that will resume after it finishes crossing over Haiti.

Now the cone as of 8am has it in the worst case scenario for Tampa Bay.

 

Ernesto looking alot like Charley.

B4P is a genius