What would be the impact of Alex in SS, Hanley in CF and DTrain in pinstripes?

 

-- Offense: huge improvement as we would have the best hitting team in the NL

 

-- Defense: improvement in SS and a ? in CF. Frankly I don't see how Hanley could be worse than Reggie and Alfredo. Assuming he manages to be as bad as they were (just to be conservative) then our overall defense still improves due to the improvement in SS and the wash in CF

 

-- Pitching: downgraded as we lose our best (in my opinion he still is) starter

 

Taking all that into consideration I would make the deal.

Dontrelle would make 12-15 million per year in NY right away. He would win 22 games again. He would hit the lottery in pinstripes. Another twist could move Uggla to CF and Shadez to 2nd but would you move 2 players out of position?

Not sure if anyone really figured out the contract (not reading 7 pages, just got back into town), but from what I gather:

 

A-Rod is owed base level $108 million for 2007-2010 (4 seasons), Texas is responsiple for $19 left on this, deferred to 2011-2020. So A-Rod is basically owned 4/$89 by the yankees. He'll probably also make another $1-3 in allstar, MVP, and gold glove incentives during this time, but we'll ignore that.

 

The Rangers covered 37% of ARods money due at the time of trade. If this would hold up in a trade with the Marlins, you'd be looking at A-Rod for 4/$55 and the loss of players. Of course, that is way to good to be true from a financial standpoint because we'd only be assuming 51% of his total salary and there is no way the Yankees would agree to that much of a money exchange.

 

I'm guessing the Yankees and Marlins would settle on 20-25% of ARod's contract ($18-$22 million), so more realistically A-Rod probablys costs 4/$67-71. We'd be paying him around $17 million a season (Pujols $16 million a season), when his contract is worth $27 million over that span. Taking $10 million off a season from his base total represents 37% of ARod's base money owed from this time period, which matches the Rangers costs exactly percentage wise. I think this is a very safe range of costs.

 

Is it worth it?

 

A-Rod for 4/$67-71

for

Dontrelle, West/Volstad, Gaby Sanchez

 

Longterm financial impact, assuming the Marlins would then open the wallet a little by doing this trade and sign Cabrera to a 7 year deal, buy out Hanley's arbitration, upgrade Borchard and Treanor's bench spots, replace Wes Helms, sign a cheap veteran 5th starter, a closer, and 2 veteran bullpen arms (that all sounds like a lot, but really isn't if you think about it), 2007 payroll would approach $45 million. 2008, it would probably be in the same $45 range as more of the current single A pitchers are able to replace more expensive veterans, and in 2009 you'd see the jump to $60-65 million range as the Hammer, Olsen, Johnson, Anibal, Uggla, Hermida, Tank, etc class all hit arbitration at the same time.

 

Still bottom 10 in payroll with taking on A-Rod for the next 3 seasons at a minimum. On a baseball level, this makes a lot of sense. On a crazy owner level, I suppose not.

Not sure if anyone really figured out the contract (not reading 7 pages, just got back into town), but from what I gather:

 

A-Rod is owed base level $108 million for 2007-2010 (4 seasons), Texas is responsiple for $19 left on this, deferred to 2011-2020. So A-Rod is basically owned 4/$89 by the yankees. He'll probably also make another $1-3 in allstar, MVP, and gold glove incentives during this time, but we'll ignore that.

 

The Rangers covered 37% of ARods money due at the time of trade. If this would hold up in a trade with the Marlins, you'd be looking at A-Rod for 4/$55 and the loss of players. Of course, that is way to good to be true from a financial standpoint because we'd only be assuming 51% of his total salary and there is no way the Yankees would agree to that much of a money exchange.

 

I'm guessing the Yankees and Marlins would settle on 20-25% of ARod's contract ($18-$22 million), so more realistically A-Rod probablys costs 4/$67-71. We'd be paying him around $17 million a season (Pujols $16 million a season), when his contract is worth $27 million over that span. Taking $10 million off a season from his base total represents 37% of ARod's base money owed from this time period, which matches the Rangers costs exactly percentage wise. I think this is a very safe range of costs.

 

Is it worth it?

 

A-Rod for 4/$67-71

for

Dontrelle, West/Volstad, Gaby Sanchez

 

Longterm financial impact, assuming the Marlins would then open the wallet a little by doing this trade and sign Cabrera to a 7 year deal, buy out Hanley's arbitration, upgrade Borchard and Treanor's bench spots, replace Wes Helms, sign a cheap veteran 5th starter, a closer, and 2 veteran bullpen arms (that all sounds like a lot, but really isn't if you think about it), 2007 payroll would approach $45 million. 2008, it would probably be in the same $45 range as more of the current single A pitchers are able to replace more expensive veterans, and in 2009 you'd see the jump to $60-65 million range as the Hammer, Olsen, Johnson, Anibal, Uggla, Hermida, Tank, etc class all hit arbitration at the same time.

 

Still bottom 10 in payroll with taking on A-Rod for the next 3 seasons at a minimum. On a baseball level, this makes a lot of sense. On a crazy owner level, I suppose not.

 

great post lou!

I certainly question the value behind such a move.

 

Hanley's production as an infielder >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> as an outfielder.

 

Really, I don't think people (not necessarily you WC) realize how damn special Hanley has the potential to be.

 

Because A-Rod is arguably the best player of all-time (through his current career). He is a plus defender at SS, despite whatever 3B troubles this year, and has a career .959 OPS. Look, I love Hanley and think he can be this awesome high .800s OPS player every year, but we aren't talking about moving him to CF for a shlup. It's Alex Rodriguez.

 

And for the record, Hanley's OPS production from SS to CF (not OF, CF which is a very big differance), wouldn't be that big a deal. He'd still be a top 7 OPS threat (plus added SB production) at his new position. What it would do, is drastically improve the Marlins offense with upgrades to SS and CF in major ways.

 

The question isn't if it's a good move for the Marlins - with our pitching depth it is. The question is, does Loria want to make payroll 2.5 times higher in 2007 than this past season. My guess, is hell no. But this whole thread is hypothetical anyways, so I don't mind discussing the finer details.

Another twist could move Uggla to CF and Shadez to 2nd but would you move 2 players out of position?

 

That would be a terrible idea.

Another twist could move Uggla to CF and Shadez to 2nd but would you move 2 players out of position?

 

That would be a terrible idea.

I don't want Uggla in CF, but I believe Hanley spent some time at 2B for Portland when Renteria was blocking his call-up to the bigs at SS.

 

For what it's worth TSwift, the RedSox were thinking about moving Hanley out of position for Renteria, who was jettisoned shorty thereafter. So, perhaps a move for AROD is not out of the question.

 

Ideally though, could you imagine if Miggy moves to 1B, ARod to 3rd, and we ship Jake away for some CF help? That could be the best infield in the game for as long as it is kept together.

Another twist could move Uggla to CF and Shadez to 2nd but would you move 2 players out of position?

 

That would be a terrible idea.

I don't want Uggla in CF, but I believe Hanley spent some time at 2B for Portland when Renteria was blocking his call-up to the bigs at SS.

 

For what it's worth TSwift, the RedSox were thinking about moving Hanley out of position for Renteria, who was jettisoned shorty thereafter. So, perhaps a move for AROD is not out of the question.

 

Ideally though, could you imagine if Miggy moves to 1B, ARod to 3rd, and we ship Jake away for some CF help? That could be the best infield in the game for as long as it is kept together.

Ideally, Hanley would be an above average CF, ARod can go play SS, and Cabs can hang at 3b with Hammer at 1b. Then trade Jake for some relief

Another twist could move Uggla to CF and Shadez to 2nd but would you move 2 players out of position?

 

That would be a terrible idea.

I don't want Uggla in CF, but I believe Hanley spent some time at 2B for Portland when Renteria was blocking his call-up to the bigs at SS.

 

For what it's worth TSwift, the RedSox were thinking about moving Hanley out of position for Renteria, who was jettisoned shorty thereafter. So, perhaps a move for AROD is not out of the question.

 

Ideally though, could you imagine if Miggy moves to 1B, ARod to 3rd, and we ship Jake away for some CF help? That could be the best infield in the game for as long as it is kept together.

Ideally, Hanley would be an above average CF, ARod can go play SS, and Cabs can hang at 3b with Hammer at 1b. Then trade Jake for some relief

 

Mike Jacobs for Gonzalez from Pitt perhaps then? (wishful thinking I know).

Another twist could move Uggla to CF and Shadez to 2nd but would you move 2 players out of position?

 

That would be a terrible idea.

I don't want Uggla in CF, but I believe Hanley spent some time at 2B for Portland when Renteria was blocking his call-up to the bigs at SS.

 

For what it's worth TSwift, the RedSox were thinking about moving Hanley out of position for Renteria, who was jettisoned shorty thereafter. So, perhaps a move for AROD is not out of the question.

 

Ideally though, could you imagine if Miggy moves to 1B, ARod to 3rd, and we ship Jake away for some CF help? That could be the best infield in the game for as long as it is kept together.

 

If we somehow pulled off this trade I would say having Miguel and ARod in the Marlins infield would last one year max, with Miguel being traded once his second year arby salary is bumped up to something in the $9-11 million range in '08 and ARod getting traded in '09 when most of the rest of the team will be entering their arby years.

Another twist could move Uggla to CF and Shadez to 2nd but would you move 2 players out of position?

 

That would be a terrible idea.

I don't want Uggla in CF, but I believe Hanley spent some time at 2B for Portland when Renteria was blocking his call-up to the bigs at SS.

 

For what it's worth TSwift, the RedSox were thinking about moving Hanley out of position for Renteria, who was jettisoned shorty thereafter. So, perhaps a move for AROD is not out of the question.

 

Ideally though, could you imagine if Miggy moves to 1B, ARod to 3rd, and we ship Jake away for some CF help? That could be the best infield in the game for as long as it is kept together.

 

If we somehow pulled off this trade I would say having Miguel and ARod in the Marlins infield would last one year max, with Miguel being traded once his second year arby salary is bumped up to something in the $9-11 million range in '08 and ARod getting traded in '09 when most of the rest of the team will be entering their arby years.

negative nancy ladies and gentlemen!

Another twist could move Uggla to CF and Shadez to 2nd but would you move 2 players out of position?

 

That would be a terrible idea.

I don't want Uggla in CF, but I believe Hanley spent some time at 2B for Portland when Renteria was blocking his call-up to the bigs at SS.

 

For what it's worth TSwift, the RedSox were thinking about moving Hanley out of position for Renteria, who was jettisoned shorty thereafter. So, perhaps a move for AROD is not out of the question.

 

Ideally though, could you imagine if Miggy moves to 1B, ARod to 3rd, and we ship Jake away for some CF help? That could be the best infield in the game for as long as it is kept together.

 

If we somehow pulled off this trade I would say having Miguel and ARod in the Marlins infield would last one year max, with Miguel being traded once his second year arby salary is bumped up to something in the $9-11 million range in '08 and ARod getting traded in '09 when most of the rest of the team will be entering their arby years.

negative nancy ladies and gentlemen!

 

Just being realistic. The burden of having Miguel AND ARod on the payroll will be too much for the Marlins to handle (or want to handle) for too long. Especially once the '09 arby salaries start stacking up. That is the price the Marlins have to pay for sticking with their strategy of giving players a series of one year contracts. Cycles of salary dumps.

Another twist could move Uggla to CF and Shadez to 2nd but would you move 2 players out of position?

 

That would be a terrible idea.

I don't want Uggla in CF, but I believe Hanley spent some time at 2B for Portland when Renteria was blocking his call-up to the bigs at SS.

 

For what it's worth TSwift, the RedSox were thinking about moving Hanley out of position for Renteria, who was jettisoned shorty thereafter. So, perhaps a move for AROD is not out of the question.

 

Ideally though, could you imagine if Miggy moves to 1B, ARod to 3rd, and we ship Jake away for some CF help? That could be the best infield in the game for as long as it is kept together.

 

If we somehow pulled off this trade I would say having Miguel and ARod in the Marlins infield would last one year max, with Miguel being traded once his second year arby salary is bumped up to something in the $9-11 million range in '08 and ARod getting traded in '09 when most of the rest of the team will be entering their arby years.

negative nancy ladies and gentlemen!

 

Just being realistic. The burden of having Miguel AND ARod on the payroll will be too much for the Marlins to handle (or want to handle) for too long. Especially once the '09 arby salaries start stacking up. That is the price the Marlins have to pay for sticking with their strategy of giving players a series of one year contracts. Cycles of salary dumps.

the fact you are in this thread says otherwise :mischief

Another twist could move Uggla to CF and Shadez to 2nd but would you move 2 players out of position?

 

That would be a terrible idea.

I don't want Uggla in CF, but I believe Hanley spent some time at 2B for Portland when Renteria was blocking his call-up to the bigs at SS.

 

For what it's worth TSwift, the RedSox were thinking about moving Hanley out of position for Renteria, who was jettisoned shorty thereafter. So, perhaps a move for AROD is not out of the question.

 

Ideally though, could you imagine if Miggy moves to 1B, ARod to 3rd, and we ship Jake away for some CF help? That could be the best infield in the game for as long as it is kept together.

 

If we somehow pulled off this trade I would say having Miguel and ARod in the Marlins infield would last one year max, with Miguel being traded once his second year arby salary is bumped up to something in the $9-11 million range in '08 and ARod getting traded in '09 when most of the rest of the team will be entering their arby years.

negative nancy ladies and gentlemen!

 

Just being realistic. The burden of having Miguel AND ARod on the payroll will be too much for the Marlins to handle (or want to handle) for too long. Especially once the '09 arby salaries start stacking up. That is the price the Marlins have to pay for sticking with their strategy of giving players a series of one year contracts. Cycles of salary dumps.

the fact you are in this thread says otherwise :mischief

 

Sorry, too vague for me. Care to explain?

Please be nice both of you. No need to get upset over different opinions. That is what makes baseball so great, there is the chance to always argue and differ upon what should or shouldnt be done.

 

I think they will be able to afford both a couple of years depending on what happens with the stadium situation.

I did just realize, we can probably get the Yanks to cover a lot more money than originally thought. If we throw in two or three top/solid prospects into the deal with Willis, they would take on more...

On Mike & the Mad Dog (yeah, I know, great source) they've said that the ARod deal, if it happened would be ideal for the Yankees if it can get "one really good young prospect ready to win and a pretty good established pitcher."

 

So it seems to me that the crown jewel for the Yankees is a pitcher who can build a new foundation with Cano and Hughes...I guess that makes us a stellar match.

On Mike & the Mad Dog (yeah, I know, great source) they've said that the ARod deal, if it happened would be ideal for the Yankees if it can get "one really good young prospect ready to win and a pretty good established pitcher."

 

So it seems to me that the crown jewel for the Yankees is a pitcher who can build a new foundation with Cano and Hughes...I guess that makes us a stellar match.

 

 

Hughes, Wang, Willis, Clippard, Pettit could be a great future 5 for them

we need a stadium!!!

Just being realistic. The burden of having Miguel AND ARod on the payroll will be too much for the Marlins to handle (or want to handle) for too long. Especially once the '09 arby salaries start stacking up. That is the price the Marlins have to pay for sticking with their strategy of giving players a series of one year contracts. Cycles of salary dumps.

 

Not really. We'd be fine as long as half the single A pitchers (Volstad, West, Thompson, Tucker, Delgado, Garcia, Doolite, Gaby, and Sinkbeil) develop, and half the current group (Olsen, Anibal, Johnson, Nolasco, Garcia, Tank, Pinto, Vargas, Petit) maintain their production/approach their ceilings. We have plenty of arms without Dontrelle to field a competitive short and long term staff for way lower than market value. By the time ARod would come off the books you'd have tons of payroll freed up to sign whatever pitchers you want to build the team around.

 

A better way to say it would be, I am unsure Marlins ownership would be hip to the idea of keeping payroll in the $45-65 on an annual basis. They can easily accomodate A-Rod for the duration of his contract while resigning Cabrera, and paying off the escalating contracts of Hanley/Hammer/Uggla/Pitchers, if they revert back to 2003-2005 payroll structure. They did such an amazing job of clearing the books this offseason, we have tons of flexibility to do things as crazy things such as A-Rod.

 

This season was outrageous in payroll. $45-65 is still bottom 10 any given year. I like to think the team will turn back into a "normal" small market team like Oakland or Cleveland by 2008. Maybe I'm to optimistic about that.

Just being realistic. The burden of having Miguel AND ARod on the payroll will be too much for the Marlins to handle (or want to handle) for too long. Especially once the '09 arby salaries start stacking up. That is the price the Marlins have to pay for sticking with their strategy of giving players a series of one year contracts. Cycles of salary dumps.

 

Not really. We'd be fine as long as half the single A pitchers (Volstad, West, Thompson, Tucker, Delgado, Garcia, Doolite, Gaby, and Sinkbeil) develop, and half the current group (Olsen, Anibal, Johnson, Nolasco, Garcia, Tank, Pinto, Vargas, Petit) maintain their production/approach their ceilings. We have plenty of arms without Dontrelle to field a competitive short and long term staff for way lower than market value. By the time ARod would come off the books you'd have tons of payroll freed up to sign whatever pitchers you want to build the team around.

 

A better way to say it would be, I am unsure Marlins ownership would be hip to the idea of keeping payroll in the $45-65 on an annual basis. They can easily accomodate A-Rod for the duration of his contract while resigning Cabrera, and paying off the escalating contracts of Hanley/Hammer/Uggla/Pitchers, if they revert back to 2003-2005 payroll structure. They did such an amazing job of clearing the books this offseason, we have tons of flexibility to do things as crazy things such as A-Rod.

 

This season was outrageous in payroll. $45-65 is still bottom 10 any given year. I like to think the team will turn back into a "normal" small market team like Oakland or Cleveland by 2008. Maybe I'm to optimistic about that.

 

A little bit too optimistic. What I forsee happening is the Marlins holding onto most of the current starting position players and starting pitchers until they reach their first year of arbitration in 2009. At that point the Marlins will trade off maybe one SP and two or three position players for top OF, IF and/or C prospect(s). The number of SP traded off will depend on how many of our SP prospects are ready for the show. Once those that reach their second year of arbitration in 2010, there will be a repeat of the 2009 trades except a higher level (say two SP plus three position players). By 2011, I think the only players who will still be around will be Hanley, Anibal and Hermida (Hermida is questionable). I think we will continually replenish our SP with homegrown prospects and we will trade for IF, OF, C prospects. Which is why I think we can expect yet another Marlins draft this year consisting of a bunch of SP. This isn't necessarily a bad plan, but at some point I am hoping the Marlins make some long term commitments. I'd like to see those with Dontrelle and Miguel this offseason, but I have seen no indication the Marlins plan on doing so. Even if the Marlins get a new stadium, I think they will argue that they need to keep the payroll low for the first few years to help payoff their end of the stadium construction costs.

Like I said in finheaven.com, Alex Rodriguez in South Florida will be similar to Shaq's arrival in South Florida, where people will start buying tickets and come to the games to watch him play. So this might be good, and he will definitely be away from the pressure of the media. Only difference between him and Shaq are the rings, but they are both heavily 20 million dollar talents.

A little bit too optimistic. What I forsee happening is the Marlins holding onto most of the current starting position players and starting pitchers until they reach their first year of arbitration in 2009. At that point the Marlins will trade off maybe one SP and two or three position players for top OF, IF and/or C prospect(s). The number of SP traded off will depend on how many of our SP prospects are ready for the show. Once those that reach their second year of arbitration in 2010, there will be a repeat of the 2009 trades except a higher level (say two SP plus three position players). By 2011, I think the only players who will still be around will be Hanley, Anibal and Hermida (Hermida is questionable). I think we will continually replenish our SP with homegrown prospects and we will trade for IF, OF, C prospects. Which is why I think we can expect yet another Marlins draft this year consisting of a bunch of SP. This isn't necessarily a bad plan, but at some point I am hoping the Marlins make some long term commitments. I'd like to see those with Dontrelle and Miguel this offseason, but I have seen no indication the Marlins plan on doing so. Even if the Marlins get a new stadium, I think they will argue that they need to keep the payroll low for the first few years to help payoff their end of the stadium construction costs.

 

You just described a situation for fielding the cheapest team possible, regardless of trying to win. The post 2005 trades set up the organization to win longterm by clearing the books of money, and bringing tons of high potential youth into the franchise. The Marlins will not be a contender unless they retain their talent, and believe me, Major League Baseball will force Loria out of the sport within a year or two if all he plans on doing is skimming the revenue sharing and continually fielding 'just competitive' 70 win all young ballclubs.

 

And regardless, this team will have a stadium by 2011 whether it's in South Florida or a new city. They will be able to massively increase payroll within the next 5 years regardless if it's this core of players, or a new batch a few years down the road.

 

Way to doomsday. I bet payroll doubles, at a minimum, by 2008.

now Mike Wilbon made mention of an ARod to Fla for Willis type deal on PTI

 

mua hahaha

now Mike Wilbon made mention of an ARod to Fla for Willis type deal on PTI

 

mua hahaha

 

Well, if Mike Wilbon said it...it MUST be true! :mischief