June 20, 200719 yr I'm totally torn on the idea of trading Willis. On the one hand, I realize he is incredibly overrated, and that every successive start isn't exactly helping him, but I also realize the reason he's still here is because of the vaule he has off the field. I've never, ever, seen a player of his stature rebound so quickly and flawlessly from a DUI/public intoxication issue. I also know that if you walk around Pro Player and the individual stores, the only tshirts you can find easily and everywhere are Miggy and Dontrelle. You actually have to look pretty hard to find Uggla and Hanley, and even then the only shirts you see on fans are the aforementioned two, plus Delgado, or Yankee stuff. I know that fans here have turned on Dontrelle (at least until his next good start) and that those that defend him probably go to games regardless. His presence isn't nearly a "if he's gone, I'm gone" issue among hardened fans the way it was in, say, April. However, there's the tremendous issue of the casual Marlin fan. The guys that come in their 2003 World Series stuff with a first time at the ballpark glint in their eye, look down to the bullpen when Wes Obermueller or Renyel Pinto gets up and say "I think that's Dontrelle!" (yes, they exist, I've sat next to them). You trade Dontrelle and you undo a decade's worth of work that's already hanging on by a thread. It would elicit another "typical Marlins" response from the media and fans, it would have a negative impact on the box office as "fans" look for another reason to not go to the ballpark and watch the Yankees-Red Sox on ESPN. Even if he's not good he still is a name. Eventually, names become important and identifiable. I know the addage that it's about the name on the front and not the name on the back, but that's only half true. If there's a point when the name on the back possibly transcends the name on the front, some concessions need to be made. I mean, even if the fans he still bring in with wide eyes are generally clueless about baseball, they're still fans, butts in the seats and tickets paid for. We need their business badly, so badly I'm sure the Marlins would drive to their house and pick them up if it meant that family of four came 40 times a season. If Dontrelle keeps them coming, it's a real tough decision to make. Then again, there's also the strong possibility that the fans at this point have such a strongly inelastic demand for baseball that they'll come regardless. Either way, I think this is the season to either sh*t or get off the pot. If we don't trade Dontrelle, then I hope we have no intentions to ever trade Dontrelle as he will not have as much value at this time next year as he does now, and if he does, it means he's gone on such a tear that we can't justify trading him in the name of getting better.
June 20, 200719 yr Swift you make some great points, and I used to be on the side of keeping Dontrelle because of the publicity that surrounds him. But with every mediocre start it becomes harder and harder to not cash in the stock while it is worth something. It's an incredibly difficult decision for the franchise to make, because in terms of making us better on the field, a trade would have a great chance of doing that, perhaps not immediately because it would likely bring in prospects, but eventually it would. The only fault in your logic I can see is that we still aren't drawing well with Dontrelle on the team, and his stock with fans is falling as well, albeit it at a much, much slower rate that will take years to even out.
June 20, 200719 yr It's an incredibly difficult decision for the franchise to make, because in terms of making us better on the field, a trade would have a great chance of doing that, perhaps not immediately because it would likely bring in prospects, but eventually it would. Then you don't make that trade, period. In my mind (and others) the goal is, and always has been, being the best possible team in 2008 and 2009. If trading Dontrelle doesn't immediately improve our 2008 outlook, forget it.
June 20, 200719 yr It's an incredibly difficult decision for the franchise to make, because in terms of making us better on the field, a trade would have a great chance of doing that, perhaps not immediately because it would likely bring in prospects, but eventually it would. Then you don't make that trade, period. In my mind (and others) the goal is, and always has been, being the best possible team in 2008 and 2009. If trading Dontrelle doesn't immediately improve our 2008 outlook, forget it. I think any trade that were made were improve our 2008 outlook, I more meant that if we brought in several young prospects, if would probably take a period of time for them to adjust fully to the majors but we would be a stronger team midway through 2008.
June 20, 200719 yr Why exactly are people talking about getting back Beckett in a trade for Willis? Josh is back in 2005 form and there's absolutely no chance they'd trade him. None. He's going to be their ace for the forseeable future. I mean, let's break it down: Beckett is only two years older than Willis, has better stuff, is actually relatively cheap ($10 million/year for the next 3 years) and has no injury history that would be of a concern for Boston--by which I mean no elbow or shoulder issues. I'd assume we're going to trade Dontrelle this season because it'll be tough to make our tiny budget with him and Cabs on the roster, and of those two I don't think there's much doubt in who you would pick, especially given the depth of starting pitching in the organization. But I'd at least try to wait until the deadline 1) to get something out of a desperate team and 2) to see if he can maybe string a few good starts together to boost his value a bit because for the most part he's been awful this year.
June 20, 200719 yr I never said trade D-Train for Big Tex. Just that I wish Big Tex was still here. Who?
June 20, 200719 yr especially given the depth of starting pitching in the organization. ????????????????????
June 20, 200719 yr Big Tex is Josh Beckett (I think). How do you get Big Tex out of Josh Beckett? His nickname (at least while he was a Marlin) was Big Texas. He is from Texas. Thats about it.
June 20, 200719 yr Speaking of Big Tex, he had an aweful 2006. ERA way over 5. He's still a damn good pitcher, and he's showing it this season. Like Lou said, starting pitchers are one of the least consistent performers out there (relief pitchers being the most inconsistent). One season a guy can win 20 games with an ERA under 3, the next season he can win 10 with an ERA above 4, then he can rebound and win 15 games with an ERA of around 3. That's just how it is. Like Swift said, I wouldn't trade Dontrelle unless the trade made us a better team the rest of the season and in 2008.
June 20, 200719 yr Never really understood the whole ban bet thing on MB, but I guess tradition is tradition. That is not to say I am in on this, also... What side?That was a little convoluted. To make it clear, I'd never do a ban bet. It never made sense to me. But I understand it is some kind of MB.com tradition. How did it start, any ways?Wanna do a ban bet, betting you that I can get you to do a ban bet? :lol :lol :lol Josh Beckett.I tagged him with that like 2 years ago and use it every time I talk about him. In fact, I cant remember the last time I actually typed "Josh Beckett". :lol :lol No you didnt. Do you work at Dolphins Stadium?
June 20, 200719 yr He hasn't hurt his trade value. He's still valuable. He can still get us a bounty. That's why we trade him soon. Willis is an average pitcher who most people tremendously overvalue, believing that his rookie season and 2005 were true Dontrelle, and the more bad outings and bad years he has, the more people are going to realize that Dontrelle is really the plus 4 era pitcher he's been almost every year he's been in the majors, and the 20 win sub 3 ERA season was the fluke. I say let's make a major deal and get some serious returns before his stock plummets, which will happen before too long. How many seasons has Dontrelle had an ERA over 4? Once! and it was 4.02! You are entitled to your opinion, and have the right to trash whoever you want. Just don't make crap up! At the very least do some research.. 2003 Florida Marlins 14 6 3.30 2004 Florida Marlins 10 11 4.02 2005 Florida Marlins 22 10 2.63 2006 Florida Marlins 12 12 3.87 Look at those numbers. If Dontrelle would have been on a team with a good offense he would have easily won 15 games every season. Forget about Whip, bb/k and all of those other garbage numbers. Those are for saber geeks. In sports the ends justify the means. On top of all of that he is a work horse.
June 20, 200719 yr He hasn't hurt his trade value. He's still valuable. He can still get us a bounty. That's why we trade him soon. Willis is an average pitcher who most people tremendously overvalue, believing that his rookie season and 2005 were true Dontrelle, and the more bad outings and bad years he has, the more people are going to realize that Dontrelle is really the plus 4 era pitcher he's been almost every year he's been in the majors, and the 20 win sub 3 ERA season was the fluke. I say let's make a major deal and get some serious returns before his stock plummets, which will happen before too long. How many seasons has Dontrelle had an ERA over 4? Once! and it was 4.02! You are entitled to your opinion, and have the right to trash whoever you want. Just don't make crap up! At the very least do some research.. 2003 Florida Marlins 14 6 3.30 2004 Florida Marlins 10 11 4.02 2005 Florida Marlins 22 10 2.63 2006 Florida Marlins 12 12 3.87 Look at those numbers. If Dontrelle would have been on a team with a good offense he would have easily won 15 games every season. Forget about Whip, bb/k and all of those other garbage numbers. Those are for saber geeks. In sports the ends justify the means. On top of all of that he is a work horse. :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol Sums up MB.com perfectly.
June 20, 200719 yr Big Tex is Josh Beckett (I think). How do you get Big Tex out of Josh Beckett? His nickname (at least while he was a Marlin) was Big Texas. He is from Texas. Thats about it... ..and he's "big" :thumbup
June 20, 200719 yr He hasn't hurt his trade value. He's still valuable. He can still get us a bounty. That's why we trade him soon. Willis is an average pitcher who most people tremendously overvalue, believing that his rookie season and 2005 were true Dontrelle, and the more bad outings and bad years he has, the more people are going to realize that Dontrelle is really the plus 4 era pitcher he's been almost every year he's been in the majors, and the 20 win sub 3 ERA season was the fluke. I say let's make a major deal and get some serious returns before his stock plummets, which will happen before too long. How many seasons has Dontrelle had an ERA over 4? Once! and it was 4.02! You are entitled to your opinion, and have the right to trash whoever you want. Just don't make crap up! At the very least do some research.. 2003 Florida Marlins 14 6 3.30 2004 Florida Marlins 10 11 4.02 2005 Florida Marlins 22 10 2.63 2006 Florida Marlins 12 12 3.87 Look at those numbers. If Dontrelle would have been on a team with a good offense he would have easily won 15 games every season. Forget about Whip, bb/k and all of those other garbage numbers. Those are for saber geeks. In sports the ends justify the means. On top of all of that he is a work horse. :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol Sums up MB.com perfectly. Yeah, I guess you work for Espn, or Mlb or some other important sports news outlet. You sir are the end all when it come to baseball knowledge. The fact of the matter is that you are just another schmuck, like me giving his opinion on a website. The fact is that whip is a stat used to determine why a pitcher is either pitching well or poorly. It doesn't mean that you can't have a good ERA and have a high whip at the same time. If you have a high whip but a good ERA it means you get in trouble but you also get out of it. I don't care what your whip is as long as you have a decent ERA, win games, and get deep into games. As far as I'm concerned Whip is a fantasy stat. Go ahead and laugh and ridicule all you want since that's your m/o.
June 20, 200719 yr He hasn't hurt his trade value. He's still valuable. He can still get us a bounty. That's why we trade him soon. Willis is an average pitcher who most people tremendously overvalue, believing that his rookie season and 2005 were true Dontrelle, and the more bad outings and bad years he has, the more people are going to realize that Dontrelle is really the plus 4 era pitcher he's been almost every year he's been in the majors, and the 20 win sub 3 ERA season was the fluke. I say let's make a major deal and get some serious returns before his stock plummets, which will happen before too long. How many seasons has Dontrelle had an ERA over 4? Once! and it was 4.02! You are entitled to your opinion, and have the right to trash whoever you want. Just don't make crap up! At the very least do some research.. 2003 Florida Marlins 14 6 3.30 2004 Florida Marlins 10 11 4.02 2005 Florida Marlins 22 10 2.63 2006 Florida Marlins 12 12 3.87 Look at those numbers. If Dontrelle would have been on a team with a good offense he would have easily won 15 games every season. Forget about Whip, bb/k and all of those other garbage numbers. Those are for saber geeks. In sports the ends justify the means. On top of all of that he is a work horse. :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol Sums up MB.com perfectly. Yeah, I guess you work for Espn, or Mlb or some other important sports news outlet. You sir are the end all when it come to baseball knowledge. The fact of the matter is that you are just another schmuck, like me giving his opinion on a website. The fact is that whip is a stat used to determine why a pitcher is either pitching well or poorly. It doesn't mean that you can't have a good ERA and have a high whip at the same time. If you have a high whip but a good ERA it means you get in trouble but you also get out of it. I don't care what your whip is as long as you have a decent ERA, win games, and get deep into games. As far as I'm concerned Whip is a fantasy stat. Go ahead and laugh and ridicule all you want since that's your m/o. There is a correlation between WHIP, K/BB rate and ERA. When a pitcher has a high WHIP and bad K/BB it is only a matter of time before all those runners he's allowing on-base will start to come around and score. For Willis, this is already happening. Pitchers with good K per 9 rates and low WHIPs tend to stay effective for much longer than pitchers with low K rates and high WHIPs. Why? Because the fewer balls a pitcher allows to be put in play the lower his chances are the dinkers and 20 hoppers start dropping in. Discrediting the "SABR stats" is 1) Ignorant and 2) Limiting your growth of knowledge as a baseball fan. Discrediting WHIP and K/BB rates is as DUMB (because that's the only word I can think of) as using Wins, batting average and RBI to determine and discuss how good a player is. All three that I mentioned have been PROVEN to be extremely misleading in gauging a player's talent. Come on MB.com expand your minds! It will make you better baseball fans and it will improve the discussions and opinions on this message board.
June 20, 200719 yr Id add saves in there as well as being dumb when used to determine a players value.
June 20, 200719 yr There is a correlation between WHIP, K/BB rate and ERA. When a pitcher has a high WHIP and bad K/BB it is only a matter of time before all those runners he's allowing on-base will start to come around and score. For Willis, this is already happening. Pitchers with good K per 9 rates and low WHIPs tend to stay effective for much longer than pitchers with low K rates and high WHIPs. Why? Because the fewer balls a pitcher allows to be put in play the lower his chances are the dinkers and 20 hoppers start dropping in. Discrediting the "SABR stats" is 1) Ignorant and 2) Limiting your growth of knowledge as a baseball fan. Discrediting WHIP and K/BB rates is as DUMB (because that's the only word I can think of) as using Wins, batting average and RBI to determine and discuss how good a player is. All three that I mentioned have been PROVEN to be extremely misleading in gauging a player's talent. Come on MB.com expand your minds! It will make you better baseball fans and it will improve the discussions and opinions on this message board. Post of the year!
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